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RXO, Inc. — Call Transcript 2025
Nov 6, 2025
Welcome to the RXO Q3 2025 earnings conference call and website. My name is Michael, and I will be your operator for today's call. Please note that this conference is being recorded. During this call, the company will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws, which, by their nature, involve a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. A discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's SEC filings as well as in its earnings release. You should refer to a copy of the company's earnings release in the Investors Relations section on the company's website for additional information regarding forward-looking statements and disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures the company uses when discussing its results. I will now turn the call over to Drew Wilkerson. Mr. Wilkerson, you may now begin. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today. I'm here in Charlotte with RXO's Chief Financial Officer, Jamie Harris, and Chief Strategy Officer, Jared Weisfeld. This morning, we announced our third-quarter results. Year-over-year, overall brokerage volume grew 1%, driven by less-than-truckload volume growth of 43%. Brokerage truckload volume declined by 11% year-over-year but increased by 1% sequentially. Last-mile stops grew by 12% year-over-year, the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. We added cash to the balance sheet and had 56% adjusted free cash flow conversion. Brokerage gross margin was 13.5%. RXO's EBITDA was $32 million in the quarter, below our expectations. Contrary to our assumptions on last quarter's call, the market tightened in September. Capacity began exiting in certain regions, driven primarily by regulatory changes and enforcement. About two-thirds of RXO's freight in the quarter came from regions where buy rates increased, and this impacted our results. Buy rates increased faster than our contractual sale rates, with no meaningful corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities. We take our commitments to our customers very seriously and continue to honor the service commitments we made in the quarter. Industry tender rejections in the third quarter were 6%. RXO's were just 2%. This built trust and strengthened relationships with our customers, and you can see the impact of our efforts and recognition we recently received from blue-chip customers, including United States Cold Storage, Owens Corning, and Eltonium. Reliably serving our customers' freight at this point in the market cycle will position RXO to win more spot loads and mini-bids as the market recovers. Now, I'd like to provide you with the details on our fourth-quarter expectations, including EBITDA between $20 million and $30 million. The biggest driver of the sequential decline is volume weakness within our last-mile business, which is counter to typical seasonality. While we posted another quarter of impressive double-digit stock growth in the third quarter, since Labor Day, we've seen a weakening in demand for big and bulky goods. Jamie and Jared will discuss this in more detail later in the call. In brokerage, we expect the squeeze dynamic to intensify into the fourth quarter. At this point in the cycle, roughly 70% of our truckload brokerage business is contract, primarily with enterprise customers, so the squeeze on our gross profit per load has been acute. In addition, we have not yet seen a meaningful increase in accretive spot opportunities. When demand ultimately recovers, spot loads will increase, which will be accretive to gross profit per load, helping to offset the higher cost of purchased transportation. The big question is whether these changes to the industry capacity are permanent. If the regulatory changes hold and enforcement continues, we believe a significant amount of truckload capacity will permanently exit the market. This will help improve the overall safety of the industry as well as help combat theft and fraud. This has the potential to be one of the largest structural changes to truckload supply since deregulation and could result in a higher-for-longer freight environment. RXO is well-positioned to capitalize on that if it occurs because of our larger scale as the third-largest provider of brokered transportation. However, for a sustained freight market recovery, we need increased demand for goods, and we aren't seeing that yet. Demand trends weakened throughout the third quarter and remained below typical seasonality. In fact, during the month of August, cash freight shipments reached their lowest level since 2020. We continue to take strategic actions to position RXO for both the short-term and the long-term. We've greatly improved RXO's cost structure throughout the downturn and took additional action in the third quarter. Since we've become a public standalone company, we've removed more than $125 million of cost. That is a significant improvement to our cost structure. Right now, the impact is being masked by the market-driven declines in gross profit per load. We're looking at our actions holistically. Some examples of our initiatives include investing in artificial intelligence that frees up time for our team to focus on our customers' most challenging problems, optimizing our real estate footprint, and right-sizing our teams to ensure the optimal balance between current demand and ensuring we're staffed for growth. Given the sustained soft freight market conditions, we've been moving quickly to streamline our costs within our brokerage business. As an example, in the third quarter, brokerage headcount declined by approximately 15% year-over-year. Our actions to date, including our investments in technology, have already yielded substantial productivity gains in brokerage. Productivity increased by 19% over the last 12 months and by 38% over the last two years. These are sticky changes to our business that will yield benefits in the future. I remain extremely confident in RXO's ability to deliver outsized earnings growth over the long term because of five things: our improved cost structure, larger scale, continued focus on profitable growth, best-in-class technology, and ability to generate cash. First, our much more efficient cost structure will provide us with significant operating leverage when the market improves. Second, we have a much larger scale. Scale is a differentiator in brokerage, and I'll highlight two examples. Scale enables us to purchase transportation more effectively. Our common technology platform is helping us capitalize on additional power lanes while providing the best truck for each load. During the third quarter, our incremental buy rate favorability was similar to last quarter and approximately 30-50 basis points better when compared to the period before the carrier migration. Those improvements were more than offset by the September market tightening I mentioned earlier. We expect our buy rate favorability to further improve as we increase productivity across the organization. We remain confident that over time, our favorability will increase to approximately 100 basis points. Another benefit of scale is a decreased cost per load. This was one of the guiding principles of the Coyote acquisition, and we achieved results in this area. Since our spend, our cost per load has decreased by more than 20%. We're effectively leveraging our increased scale and technology platform and will continue to bring down our cost to serve. The third driver of long-term value creation for RXO is profitable growth. This is part of our DNA, and we have continued opportunities to drive future growth. In addition to growing our core truckload business, we will also grow by offering valuable premium services that deepen relationships with customers. We're also in the early stages of growing more consistent sources of EBITDA, including managed transportation and LTL, because they reliably bring in strong and more consistent profits through market cycles. In the third quarter, we grew LTL volume by 43%. While LTL volume has grown significantly, it only represents about 10% of total brokerage gross profit dollars. We have a long runway in LTL. We have an exceptional track record when it comes to growth. Over the five years prior to the Coyote acquisition, RXO grew total volume by 72% organically and 11% CAGR. Fourth, our technology is the differentiator. Customers and carriers constantly tell us that our tech is the best and easiest to use in the industry. We invest heavily in this area, spending over $100 million every year. This technology, powered by AI and machine learning, helps our employees be more productive, freeing up their time to focus on our customers and carriers. It also enhances our customer experience and drives our pricing engines. Fifth, our asset-like business model enables us to produce strong cash flow. In the quarter, despite the soft market conditions, our adjusted free cash flow conversion was 56%. We remain confident in delivering 40-60% conversion across market cycles. In conclusion, although we're in a challenging market environment and we're not satisfied with our near-term performance, we've taken decisive strategic actions. We remain focused on what has made us so successful over the past decade-plus. We provide exceptional service, a comprehensive set of solutions, cutting-edge technology, and deep customer relationships. All of this provides RXO with a unique algorithm for long-term growth. Now, Jamie will discuss our financial results in more detail. Thank you, Drew, and good morning. Let's review our third-quarter performance in more detail. Our results were slightly below our outlook. For the quarter, we reported $1.4 billion in total revenue, gross margin of 16.5%, Adjusted EBITDA of $32 million, and an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 2.3%. Gross margin and Adjusted EBITDA were primarily impacted by the increase in cost of transportation, further broad-based demand weakness, and continued headwinds in the automotive sector. As Drew mentioned, cost of transportation increased without a corresponding increase in sale rates or accretive spot opportunities. This caused a margin squeeze on our contractual brokerage volume during the month of September. Jared will provide more details later in the call. Automotive was a continued headwind and represented an approximately $5 million year-over-year margin impact in the quarter. As we discussed over the past two quarters, this freight is time-critical and with high service requirements and typically carries a higher-than-average gross margin with strong flow-through to EBITDA. Below the line, our interest expense was $9 million. For the quarter, our adjusted earnings per share was $0.01. You can find a bridge to Adjusted EBITDA on slide seven of the earnings presentation. Now, I'd like to give an overview of our performance within our lines of business. Brokerage revenue was $1 billion and represented 70% of our total revenue. Overall, brokerage volume growth was 1% in the quarter. We had strong LTL growth of 43%, which was offset by an 11% decline in full truckload volume. The year-over-year decline in truckload volume was impacted by overall demand weakness, softness in the automotive sector, and efforts we undertook with customers to optimize price, volume, and service. Given the market tightening in September. Brokerage gross margin was down 90 basis points sequentially to 13.5% at the low end of our outlook. Complementary services revenue in the quarter of $442 million increased by 5% year-over-year and was 30% of our total revenue. Gross margin within complementary services was 21.3%. Now, let's discuss each line of business within complementary services. Managed transportation generated $137 million of revenue in the quarter, down 9% year-over-year. Managed transportation continues to be impacted by lower automotive volume in our managed expedite business. Our last-mile business generated $305 million in revenue in the quarter, up 14% year-over-year. Last-mile stops grew by 12%. However, over the past few months, we have seen a weakening in the big and bulky demand. This trend has worsened into the fourth quarter. Let's now discuss cash. Please refer to slide eight. Adjusted free cash flow in the third quarter was $18 million, yielding a strong 56% conversion from Adjusted EBITDA. As a reminder, our semi-annual interest payment is not due until the fourth quarter, which benefited our third-quarter conversion. Year-to-date, our conversion is 50%. We're very pleased with our conversion at this point in the freight cycle. Given our asset-light business model, we remain confident in a 40-60% conversion over the long term and across market cycles. We ended the quarter with $25 million of cash on the balance sheet, which increased by $7 million sequentially with no change to the revolver balance. We grew our cash balance despite $9 million of restructuring, transaction, and integration cash outflows. As you can see on slide nine, our liquidity position continues to be strong with $590 million of total committed liquidity, of which approximately $375 million is currently available. Quarter-end net leverage was 2.3 times LTM bank-Adjusted EBITDA, up slightly when compared to the prior quarter. I now like to talk about the actions we've taken to optimize our cost structure. We've taken actions to achieve more than $125 million of annualized expense savings, including $65 million of post-spend cost and $60 million of cost synergies related to the Coyote acquisition. Today, we announced that we're taking additional actions that would yield more than $30 million of incremental annualized savings. Collectively, this means a total reduction in annualized expenses over the last three years of more than $155 million. We're optimizing our cost structure, operating more efficiently, and automating key processes. Now, let's discuss our expectations for the fourth quarter. Our outlook reflects a fluid macroeconomic environment with weakening freight demand and a continued increase in the cost to purchase transportation. For the combined company in the fourth quarter, we expect to generate between $20 million and $30 million of Adjusted EBITDA. While we would typically see a sequential increase in brokerage Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, that is being more than offset by higher costs to purchase transportation. We're also expecting a decline in complementary services driven by slowing demand and last mile, which is counter to normal seasonality. Jared will provide more details on our outlook shortly. Slide 14 includes our fourth quarter modeling assumptions. There are a few things I want to highlight. We expect CapEx of approximately $20 million. We're tracking towards the low end of our previously discussed $65 million-$75 million outlook for the full year 2025. For 2026, we continue to expect CapEx to be between $45 million and $55 million. Down materially year-over-year. As we discussed, we're taking additional cost actions that will result in more than $30 million of annualized expense savings. In conjunction with these actions, we expect fourth quarter restructuring, transaction, and integration expenses to be approximately $15 million. Below the line, we expect net interest expense of approximately $9 million. An adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 30%, and fully diluted shares of 170 million. To summarize, recent accelerated capacity exits are putting upward pressure on our cost to purchase transportation and squeezing our contractual brokerage gross margin. This impacts near-term profitability given our large footprint of contract business with tier one shippers. We are reliably servicing our customers' freight and are well-positioned to win spot opportunities and special projects when demand recovers. Longer term, as we think about the broader macroeconomy, we do see positive developments such as lower interest rates, new tax legislation, domestic investment announcements, and improving clarity on trade. Lower interest rates specifically can spur freight activity in many rate-sensitive industries such as the housing sector. As an example, according to the American Trucking Associations, every new home built requires between six and ten truckloads of goods to be shipped. Mortgage rates recently reached 12-month lows, and any recovery in the housing market would be positive for ground transportation and RXO. We are closely monitoring the macro environment and are positioned to benefit when demand strengthens. Now, I'd like to turn it over to our Chief Strategy Officer, Jared Weisfeld, who will talk in more detail about our results and our outlook. Thanks, Jamie, and good morning, everyone. As I typically do, I'll start with an overview of our brokerage performance in the quarter. To make the comparisons more useful for you, I'll give you combined numbers that include Coyote's results in the prior period. Brokerage volume in the quarter was up 1% year-over-year, outpacing the CAS freight index. LTL volume increased by a strong 43% year-over-year. LTL represented 31% of brokerage volume in the quarter, up 900 basis points year-over-year and down slightly from the second quarter. Truckload volume was down 11% year-over-year and represented 69% of brokerage volume, up 100 basis points sequentially. Similar to last quarter, truckload volume was impacted by a decline in automotive, efforts we undertook with customers to optimize price, volume, and service, and broader market weakness. From a vertical perspective, automotive volume was down 22% year-over-year. In the industrial and manufacturing vertical, encouragingly, we saw a slight pickup sequentially, which was largely driven by special projects. Industrial manufacturing volume declined by 3% year-over-year. Contract volume was 71% of our overall truckload volume in the quarter. Contract business declined by 200 basis points sequentially and 100 basis points year-over-year. Spot represented 29% of our truckload volume in the quarter, up 200 basis points sequentially and 100 basis points year-over-year. This was partly tied to the Coyote technology integration. As we migrated shippers to RXO Connect from Bazooka, we benefited from an increase in API connectivity. This enhanced connectivity will also benefit the combined organization when the freight market eventually recovers. However, given the weakening demand environment, the spot opportunities were less robust when compared to the second quarter and not enough to offset the squeeze on our contractual book of business. Before reviewing our financial performance and market conditions in more detail, I'd like to talk more about some of the technology offerings that we rolled out in the quarter. We deliver technology that drives improvements across four key pillars: volume, margin, productivity, and service. We've been developing and enhancing our artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for years, utilizing our proprietary data. During the quarter, we made progress further enhancing our AI capabilities across each pillar. We enhanced our proprietary and differentiated pricing model, which leverages the combined data of RXO and Coyote. We implemented agentic AI solutions to streamline carrier inquiries, reducing manual effort by tens of thousands of hours. We've deployed AI image solutions in last mile to ensure delivery and install quality, which has the opportunity to fully automate thousands of manual photo validations per day. Our engineering teams have been leveraging AI tools that have generated millions of lines of code. We're applying AI to structurally improve the long-term margin profile of the business. Let's now review our brokerage financial performance and market conditions in more detail. Starting with revenue per load on slide 10. In the third quarter, truckload revenue per load moderated. Year-over-year revenue per load, excluding the impact of changes in fuel prices and length of haul, increased by 1%. The demand environment also weakened in the third quarter, negatively impacting revenue per load. Let's move to slide 11 and discuss brokerage margin performance and current market conditions. As Drew mentioned, the truckload market tightened during the month of September. This squeezed the margins in our contractual book of business, resulting in a moderation in gross profit per load and third-quarter brokerage gross margin at the low end of our outlook. From a market standpoint, buy rates and industry KPIs moved higher in the quarter. Tighter market conditions have been entirely driven by supply-side dynamics as overall demand has weakened. This tightening in supply is largely due to enforcement actions related to non-domiciled CDLs and English language proficiency. From a seasonal standpoint, buy rates typically eased during September. This year, however, the market moved counter-seasonally, and buy rates moved higher in September. This trend not only continued, but was even more pronounced in October, despite weaker demand. For the quarter, approximately two-thirds of our freight came from outbound states with buy rate increases. For example, we saw acute tightening in California and Texas. Over the last two months, industry-wide line haul spot rates have moved up by approximately 6 cents per mile, with no increase in sale rates or a corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities. While RXO continued to procure transportation more favorably than the market, we are not immune to market squeezes given our large contractual book of business with tier one enterprise shippers. As it relates to purchase transportation savings from the Coyote acquisition, our incremental buy rate favorability was similar to the prior quarter at approximately 30-50 basis points. Our customer and carrier representatives continue to increase their familiarity and productivity within RXO Connect. We remain confident in our ability to achieve 100 basis points of incremental favorability over the long term. As a reminder, in tightening market conditions, such as the current market, incremental favorability serves as cost avoidance. Turning to slide 12, as we just discussed, truckload gross profit per load moderated in the third quarter given softer demand and tighter capacity. This market tightness intensified recently. To put in perspective, our truckload gross profit per load in the month of October was approximately 25% behind our five-year average, excluding COVID highs. Incremental margins attributable to a gross profit per load increase are very strong, in excess of 80%. Moving to slide 13. RXO's LTL brokerage volume continues to outperform the broader LTL market. In the quarter, LTL gross profit per load also improved sequentially. We have many opportunities to continue to grow LTL volume with existing and new customers. I'd now like to look forward and give you some more details on our fourth quarter outlook. We're assuming a muted peak season and weak demand trends across all our lines of business. Starting with brokerage, we expect overall volume to decline by a low single-digit percent year-over-year, with continued soft truckload volume trends partially offset by strong LTL growth. Market tightness intensified in the month of October and is expected to persist throughout Q4, pressuring brokerage gross margin and gross profit per load. We anticipate that brokerage gross margin will be between 12% and 13%. Let's now talk about complementary services. In managed transportation, while the business has strong sales momentum and an expanded pipeline, managed expedite automotive headwinds continue to impact us in the near term. In last mile, demand trends within big and bulky have weakened after Labor Day, and we're taking that into account in our outlook. Putting it all together, we expect RXO's fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $20-$30 million. While we would typically see a sequential increase in brokerage Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, that is being more than offset by higher cost of purchase transportation. We are also expecting a decline in complementary services driven by slowing demand in last mile, which is counter to normal seasonality. Taken together, the impact of these two items is approximately $15 million. Similar to previous quarters, we thought it would also be helpful to share some assumptions underlying our fourth quarter outlook. The low end of our Adjusted EBITDA outlook assumes a further moderation of our truckload gross profit per load. This would include a continued increase in buy rates and no corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities. The high end of our outlook assumes an increase in our gross profit per load and improvement in brokerage gross margin. This would include accretive spot opportunities to offset the squeeze. To close, we continue to operate in a soft demand environment. On the supply side, continued enforcement of non-domiciled CDL restrictions and English language proficiency would result in a major structural change to the industry. While our brokerage gross margin is impacted in the near term, assuming enforcement continues, this could result in a sharper inflection when demand eventually recovers. Longer term, this could be a very positive development for large-scale brokerages like RXO, and it would strengthen safety, reduce theft, and fraud. Our actions over the last several years have improved RXO's cost structure, which will lead to higher earnings across market cycles. We have taken actions to remove over $125 million of cost. We announced more than $30 million of new cost initiatives today to enhance operational efficiency. We've improved brokerage productivity by 38% over the last two years. Our brokerage cost per load has decreased by more than 20% since our spin, and we are committed to investing in technology, including AI, with a strong return on invested capital. More than ever, shippers want to do business with large-scale brokerages that have the resources, capital, and ability to invest throughout market cycles. With a continued focus on profitable growth, a more efficient cost structure, larger scale, and a cutting-edge technology platform, we are well-positioned to drive significant long-term earnings and free cash flow growth. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for Q&A. Thank you very much. It is now time for our Q&A session. Our first question will come from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies. You may now begin. Hi, team. Good morning. I wanted to get a sense, I guess, just on the underlying market dynamics and specifically the supply environment, which you've touched on here, but there's a lot of debate on whether these federal enforcement actions will be enough to shift the supply-demand balance. The first question is, do you think the recent supply exits are sustainable and enough to structurally reduce market supply? The second, if this is, in fact, the final squeeze that we would expect to see at the bottom of the cycle, if demand doesn't materialize near term, what actions can RXO take just to manage gross profit per load for, say, the next couple of quarters? Thanks. Hey, Stephanie. Good morning, it's Drew. I'll take the first part on the reducing capacity, and Jared will take the second part of your question on the gross margin dollars and gross profit per load through a quarter. When you look at what's going on on the supply side, as I said in my prepared commentary, I think this is the biggest structural change potentially in transportation. Compare it to something like ELDs. When ELDs were enforced, drivers had a choice of whether or not they were going to invest into their equipment and continue to haul. At this point, they do not have a choice. They are being pulled off the road if they are non-domiciled drivers or if the English language proficiency does not meet the requirements. I think it's a much bigger change than anything that has happened in the industry in the past. It is something that will take out capacity in a major way in large percentage points. The one thing that we still need is for demand to return overall. As demand returns, what that does is it creates a much sharper inflection as the market comes back. Stephanie, on your second part of the question in terms of if this is the final squeeze, but demand does not recover, what actions can we do? I would point to the $30 million of new cost initiatives that we announced this morning, more than $30 million, where you will see a partial impact here in the fourth quarter. We continue to streamline the cost structure of the business, and we see significant opportunities as it relates to improving that cost structure longer term. As you think about additionally heading into next year, and Drew touched on this in the opening remarks, our cost of purchase transportation benefits as carrier reps continue to gain incremental efficiencies on RXO Connect and Freight Optimizer. The ability to go ahead and become more productive and benefit from a PT standpoint, I think, are very real. The last thing I'd close with is, I think Jamie touched on this. Ultimately, we are seeing lower interest rates and some benefits associated with the recent bills that were passed through Congress as it relates to potential investments in the U.S. as well. As you think about what this is setting up for when supply eventually continues to normalize combined with a demand inflection, it could be pretty strong on the other side, but enforcement does need to sustain. Great. Thank you. I'll pass it on. Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. You may now begin. Hey, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking the question. Drew, this is going to come off a little critical, but I think it's probably for the betterment of everyone on the call. I mean, let's take it at face value. Your Adjusted EBITDA guide here is down about 40% at the midpoint year on year, and that's a year in the Coyote. We really thought Coyote was going to be transformative, a pretty big acquisition for a company of your size. I guess looking back, are there things that you maybe wouldn't have done? I mean, maybe to exemplify it, I think the last couple of years you guys have said 1Q is usually a lot weaker than 4Q. Is that what we're to infer here? If that's the case, I mean, I guess investors are probably going to look for more tangible actions here on earnings. Yeah, Brandon, good morning. Thanks for the question. If you look back at the Coyote acquisition, on people, customers, and technology, we have done extremely well. The financial results are not where they need to be. The biggest miss off of that was whenever you went into the 2025 market, we made a decision on pricing, and we took price up off of that. I made the wrong call on that one. That is something that has impacted overall volumes. If you go back and you look at our history, we've outgrown the market for several times. I look forward to us getting back to the days of where we are the market leader and we're the transportation leader from a growth standpoint of taking market share. Clearly, 2025 is not where we want it to be overall. As you go from 4Q to1Q. First, I would say. Let's start with the third quarter. Typically, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, you see brokerage and last mile go up from an EBITDA perspective. That is not what you're seeing this year. The headwind going from 4Q to 1Q is not the same as what it typically would be. We also have the cost actions that we have taken that will be impacted from 4Q to 1Q. I do not think it's an apples to apples. Demand is still an unknown as we go into Q1, and are we still getting squeezed as we go into Q1? That's unknown. Ultimately, what is happening in the business right now is setting up for a very, very good thing. I appreciate that, Drew. Jamie, can you talk to your adjusted leverage calc that I think speaks to some of your covenants? Is that going to be challenged just given the earnings outlook here into the fourth quarter, especially as you move forward? Yeah, thanks. Yeah, so we ended the quarter at leverage of a net 2.3. If you look forward to the midpoint of our range at end of Q4, say 20-30, at 25, you'll be at about 2.8. Our covenant is 4.5, so we've got a lot of headroom. We have a very strong balance sheet. We've got access to several hundreds of millions of dollars of capital. So we're not concerned about that. One thing I would point out, as Drew said, we had a strong cash flow quarter, 56% conversion, added cash to the balance sheet. As we look forward to the fourth quarter, we will have the semi-annual bond payment, which is normally due in Q4, which will make that. We will use some cash in the fourth quarter. As you look at 25, holistically, one thing really important to point out. There's about $65 or $70 million of cash outflows in 2025 that will not reoccur in 2026. Three drivers. Number one, in the first quarter, we had $25 million of cash usage to finish paying for transaction fees related to the Coyote acquisition that happened in 2024. It was purely timing. Secondly, our total spend on restructuring and integration will go down approximately $30 million year-over-year. Third, our CapEx will go down $10-$15 million. If you add all those together, we've really got $65 or $70 million of cash outflow in 2025 that will not reoccur. If you put that in context of the 2025 midpoint of the range for the full year, that means we would be producing $20-$25 million of free cash flow in 2025. If you think about that at the bottom of the cycle, very strong. It really sets up nicely as the cycle improves. That number will go up. All that taken together, we have a very strong cash flow business. We have a very strong balance sheet. We always watch the balance sheet closely, but it's not something that we're overly concerned about right now, but we do pay close attention as you'd expect us to. All right. Thank you, Jamie. Thanks, Drew. Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Ravi Shankar with Morgan Stanley. You may now begin. Great. Thanks. Morning, guys. There is a bit of an AI arms race out there in the brokerage space. It is all about how many agentic AI bots you have and how many press releases you put out. You said that your customers are telling you that you have the best and easiest tech out there. Can you just unpack for us the process of going out there and selling your tech platform to your customers? What are they looking for? How do you drive conversion? Kind of how do you differentiate yourself with what else is out there from a tech world? Sometimes it may be hard to see for us in our seat. Yeah. Ravi, one, appreciate the question. The only thing I would level set on is it's not about press releases for us. It's about results for employees. It's about results for customers. It's about results for carriers. We are hitting an inflection point with our AI investments that we have been making. Not only have we been running an integration, we have been investing in AI, and we've been investing in it heavily. When you look on the ability of what we're able to do on the pricing side, it is something, while we had a very strong pricing algorithm that's allowed us to outperform the market from a margin perspective for a decade plus, it is getting better. When you look at the way that we are communicating with carriers, it is changing, and it is allowing our reps to spend more time focusing on solutions. The last thing is, even if you look at our last mile business, we've done things like whenever you're doing an installation versus a person going in there and getting a photo and checking it, we've been able to actually do that with an AI bot that is checking everything from an installation standpoint, which is critical to our customers and consumers and how that process unfolds. For us, very excited about hitting an inflection point with AI and what it will actually mean from an operating margin perspective to the business. I look forward to hosting you next week and letting you actually see it on the floor of how it impacts carrier reps' lives, how it impacts customers, and how we're interacting with them so that you can see it live and in person. Great. Looking forward to that as well. Maybe a super quick follow-up. Your 4Q guidance is predicated on the current demand-supply equation holding, right? If for some reason the supply side, other enforcement drops off or supply side gets looser, your 4Q gross margin will be better than guided. Ravi, as you think about the range that we provided for Q4, $20-$30 million of adjusted EBITDA, the midpoint assumes that current market conditions in terms of the intensification that occurred in the month of October with respect to market tightness, given the supply dynamics that we talked about, that sustains throughout the rest of the quarter. The low end assumes that the market further tightens in terms of that squeeze impact without a corresponding increase in spot opportunities. That environment would result at the low end. For the high end, to your point, as you think about either the market tightening to the point where it results in some pressure in waterfall routing guides and some spot opportunities, and/or if there is an easing in buy rates that would allow gross profit per load to improve from current levels to get to the high end of our guide for Q4. Great. Thanks, Jared. Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Wells Fargo. You may now begin. Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. I guess I want to ask a question about operating expenses and your ability to maybe sort of rein those in a little bit as you go forward in this weaker market. Maybe you can talk a little bit about the potential opportunities you have. It looks like if I just sort of zone in on direct OpEx and labor expenses, those have been relatively flat in this market over the course of the last few quarters. Is there work that you can do there to try to adapt to what has been obviously a more challenging outlook? Yeah. This is Jamie. We've taken a lot of cost actions since then, $155 million in total, including the synergies we've gotten from the acquisition. We're constantly looking at our expenses. If you look at our P&L, a lot of the direct OpEx that you see in the P&L relates to our last mile and our managed transportation business. SG&A shows up in the P&L across all the business lines. There's still plenty of actions that we can take. We've talked about automation. We've talked about process improvement. One of the things that we're constantly working on, Drew mentioned in his remarks, is footprint. How do we consolidate footprint so we can give the same level of high customer service in fewer square feet of space and fewer facilities? Those are the type of things we're constantly working on. Yes, there is more that we can do. And we're constantly working on those type activities. You can see it with the $30 million that we announced today. I mean, that's a constant process that we're going through. Okay. That's helpful. I guess maybe, Drew, if we could sort of zoom out a little bit and try to get a sense of maybe how we come out of this dynamic that we're in right now. I don't think we typically see the cycles turn simply driven by the supply coming out. It seems like that's happening without any demand, I guess. Maybe help us a little bit as you think about the next couple of quarters as you guys are planning for. The sort of demand environment. What do you see out there? You obviously need demand. Where do you think it comes from? Yeah. I think, Chris, there's a lot of things that we're watching on the demand, as Jamie alluded to in his prepared comments. We're watching what happens on the interest rates. We're watching what is happening in the homes. We're paying very close attention on the automotive side. As you know, in automotive, there is the managed expedite portion, and that's when everything breaks down and you have to get something to a plant to avoid shutdown. That's a big piece of our business. When you look at what that piece of the business was during the peak, it was around 13% of our gross margin dollars in brokerage came from expedite loads. Right now, we're sitting at around 1% or 2%. To see where the business can go to getting back on track from that perspective. We've always had a big presence in retail and e-commerce, and we have a lot of great relationships there. From the Coyote acquisition, we gained a lot of exposure to food and beverage. One of the things that we've been really focused on on the sales side is expanding in the technology vertical and expanding in the high cargo value goods area. We have got a very good pipeline. We're seeing good wins in those areas and look forward to the results. The second part of your question, I think, was more on the market and what's going on. What I would say is this is not an episodic squeeze. This is not DOT checkpoint week. This is not produce season. This is not a weather impact. This is a structural change that is taking place in the industry if it persists. Supply coming out is real. It is happening. On the other side of that, with the demand, that sets up extremely well for large carriers, specifically brokers, who have good relationships with their customers, who provide good service, can provide a comprehensive set of solutions, and have great technology. We check the box on every one of those. This is mechanical and part of what we go through at this point in the process, but we know what is on the other side of it. Are you willing to sort of venture a guess on what the capacity rationalization might look like in terms of % of the fleet? Chris, we're watching a lot of the same things that you're watching. I mean, if you take out the private fleets and the large carriers, there's numbers out there that it could be 15-20% of capacity. If that happens, that is a big change within the industry and a lot of capacity that would be exiting. Got it. Thank you very much. Appreciate it. Thank you. Our next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. You may now begin. Hey, good morning. Drew or Jared, I just want to understand kind of the messaging here for the fourth quarter. Is this just the squeeze of the spot price that shifted quickly? Are you seeing an acceleration in the demand falling away? It seems like such a more significant change for a fourth quarter outlook than we've heard from other carriers that have also reported within the past week. I just want to understand what you're seeing. Maybe that's a little different. Is the cost exposure unique to RXO in terms of two-thirds of the cost came from regions where the buy rates increased? Is that maybe something more particular to RXO than your peers, or is it the capacity tightening more in Texas and California? Any thoughts? I know it's a long question, but any thoughts on that would be helpful. Thanks. Hey, Ken, it's Jared. When you think about the bridge from Q3 to Q4, typically, both brokerage and last mile are up sequentially from third quarter to fourth quarter. This year, we are assuming that they are both down sequentially. That is a function of both what you cited in terms of lower demand and higher PT costs. On the demand side, we are seeing lower demand across the business. We saw that play out throughout Q3, and we are expecting the same in the fourth quarter. I'd say specific also to last mile, we did see a drop-off, call it after the Labor Day timeframe, with respect to goods for big and bulky. Last mile is seasonally up into the fourth quarter, and we are expecting that to decline sequentially, given that decline in big and bulky demand. With respect to the question as it relates to purchase transportation costs, right? So when you think about our business, to your point, we did see about two-thirds of states where we were moving goods from an outbound standpoint, our PT costs going higher. In the third quarter. I'd say it moved modestly higher in the month of September, but that acute tightening really did happen over the last four weeks. After the emergency order on non-domiciled CDLs came into effect at the end of September. We've seen that play out with gross profit per load and gross margin compression within the brokerage business in the month of October. What makes this interesting and unique to Drew's point, where this is very structural from our standpoint because this is not an episodic squeeze like we have seen over the last three years, where whether it is seasonality due to produce season or DOT checkpoint, this is a lot of capacity that is coming out of the market. Ultimately, it is happening at a point where we are having weaker demand trends. You do not have routing guide pressures to allow for accretive spot opportunities. That is really what is playing out here, Ken. Just to clarify that, Jared, because again, I am just trying to compare it versus what we have heard from some peers, right? The lack of spot opportunities, but are you seeing that core demand fall faster? I'm just trying to differentiate kind of why we're seeing maybe some cost or some margin accretion at some relative peers versus the continued pressure. I get the cost side. I think you've made that quite clear in terms of the speed with which this is happening. Is anything also happening on the demand side? Yes, demand has weakened. I would also, when you look at our mix, mix is very different across different businesses and different brokerages, right? For RXO, our contractual book of business, which was just north of 70% of our volume in the third quarter from a brokerage standpoint, really, if you think about largest shippers in North America, tier one enterprise-class shippers. Not as much SMB, right? One of the benefits associated with the acquisition of Coyote was we did get an SMB business, but ultimately, that's probably around 10% of total volume. The big bulk of our exposure really is large. Tier one enterprise-class shippers. I do think that mix is also important. I go back to the earlier question as it relates to automotive, which certainly has been a headwind for the business as well, as an example throughout the year, I suppose, with the managed expedite type rate. I would certainly highlight mix as a big difference. Ken, I would also, I'll expand on it a little bit. I think there's a lot of public data out there that shows what's going on with demand. If you look at the cash rate index, it shows that it is down 7%. If you want to dive specifically into truckload, FreightWave Sonar's got a product out there that shows it is down, sitting around 17% right now on the truckload side. I think it's not necessarily taking our word for it. It's looking at the public data out there available in the truckload market. Okay. Appreciate the time. Thanks, Chris. Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research. You may now begin. Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just sort of like a big picture, we're talking about a tightening market. At the same time, your truckload rev per load goes from up three to up one. Drew, you've been doing this a long time. Have you seen this before where the market tightens and your buy rates go up, but industry spot rates or sell rates don't move? I don't know that I've seen this before. Ultimately, I guess what I'm trying to understand is if a typical squeeze for your business is. A quarter or two, and then eventually you sort of benefit from it. Do you think this is a, if it's supply-driven, is it a longer squeeze this time, or do you think, hey, this dynamic of buy rates up and sell rates not moving can't last, and at some point, the sell rates are going to have to start moving pretty quickly? Yeah, Scott, I think that everything that you just said points to it being a structural change that has happened in the industry because it is something that we all have not seen before and shaking out this way. As far as how long the squeeze is, yeah, I do not think it would be wise of me to venture a guess on how long the squeeze is because I do not think that anybody saw the upside and the downside of this cycle lasting five-plus years at this point. I do not know how long the squeeze will be, but yes, we are in the thick of it right now as something that impacts our margins. I'll tell you, if you go back and you look at the time of ELD, you actually saw our margins fall to 11.5% during that time. Within two quarters, you saw more than it make up for that on the recovery side. Now, there was demand there. I think that demand is a key point. I do not think that the capacity coming out in this situation is the same as ELD. I think it is in a much bigger way because at ELD, you had a choice of if you were going to spend the money and invest in your equipment to meet federal mandates. This time, you do not have a choice. You are just coming off of the road. All that makes sense. Can I just ask one quick follow-up? I think you mentioned that buy rates have gone up like $0.06 or something. Is there any sensitivity, like every penny of buy rate equals how much of operating income or EBITDA? Any sort of sensitivity there? Yeah. I mean, for us, Scott, the industry went up $0.06. We were much less than that. I think that goes to the benefit of the Coyote acquisition of being able to buy better than market. For us, in a quarter, every penny that it goes up is $2.5 million of EBITDA. Okay. All right. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs. You may now begin. Yeah, just maybe just to follow on on thinking about the purchase transport and the squeeze. Obviously, there's decent squeeze going on. PT's going up. I mean, doesn't that read that as we get into the contract season, next cycle, which I presume starts in earnest in early next year or March or something, that we should see a significant increase in, or at least an increase in contract rates and the squeeze should be going away? Thanks. Yeah. Good morning, Jordan. I think it'll still depend on what happens with overall demand. Bid season's underway right now. We're in the middle of some of our largest bids. Yesterday, in Charlotte, we had seven of our largest customers, and we spent a lot of time talking about our pricing strategy with them, talking about how we could draw synergies between the customers that were in the room from a capacity standpoint, talking about what was going on with the federal mandates. For us, we look at every customer as their own story as we go through a bid cycle. Are there the opportunity for rates to go up? Absolutely. I think some of it depends on what's going on in the market as that customer's bid is going on. I'm not going to forecast on where rates are going to go for next year. What I will say is as routing guides start to break down, that's where spot loads come in at, and those are at a much higher revenue per load. I guess just as a quick follow-up, I mean, given what you're seeing in purchase transport, I mean, do you feel that the customers you're talking to are understanding that you're going to need to push rate up? We have very close relationships with all of our customers. Every one of them is their own story. For us, it's about providing a solution for them and for us that works for both the short and the long term. Our customers are very well aware of what's going on in the market right now. Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Tom Wadewitz with UBS. You may now begin. Yeah, good morning. I wanted to swing back a little bit to just kind of how we should view the run rate in Q4 and what that implies for 2026 or just broad brush how to think about 2026. If you kind of take midpoint of your EBITDA guide for Q4, add it up with the three you reported, you get $117 million for EBITDA base in 2025. If you kind of put seasonality on the $25 million Q4, it's probably well below $100 million. I guess I know you've got the $30 million of cost saves, you've got other initiatives, but I mean, do you think 2026 EBITDA is more closer to $100 million or closer to $150 million or just it seems like hard to know what's the right ballpark even to be in given Q4 is so tough. Yeah, hey, this is Jamie. As you know, we do one quarter at a time. As we think about 2026, as you know, there is a lot of unknowns. We are heading into next year. We have got the volume demand. Where does it go? We have got the cost of purchase trends. How long does the squeeze endure? How. Does it get a little worse? Does it get better? And when? You mentioned this. We do have a significant amount of cost that we have taken out of the business. Some piece of that is a run rate into 2026. We have got the purchase transportation opportunity. Drew talked about. 30-50 basis points to date. Much of that is showing up in the P&L as cost avoidance. That will translate. We will get more of that. We will get to the 100 basis points. I do not think you can take kind of a Q4, project into a Q1 or a Q2 because, again, Q4 is sub-seasonal. We would expect both last mile and brokers to be up sequentially from Q3 to Q4. It is not. It is actually down. That being said, what that translates into a Q1 is not going to be normal. Also, as it relates to the rest of the year, and is this demand, as this market sets up, as Drew has talked about on the capacity side, when demand comes back, and it will come back, there are a lot of things going on out in the macro that demand will come back. When? We do not know for sure. When it does, we are set up very well to be a beneficiary of that. Tom, I agree with everything that Jamie just said, but one thing that I would add is if you look at what's happened in the industry over the last seven, eight weeks, and the impact that that has had to financials, it's running in the negative way. It works the exact opposite whenever the market starts to turn on the positive way. This is an industry that turns very, very quickly. You have the opportunity, as the market recovers, to expand margins in a big way. Yeah. Okay. It seems like you could have a setup for a big improvement in second half 2026, right? That seems like a thing worth considering as well as a tough run rate coming in. I wanted to ask for a second question to follow up. How do you think about what's important on enforcement supply side? I mean, I think. I wonder if there's some avoidance of enforcement areas where the capacity that's questionable in the market understands where the enforcement is taking place, and then you avoid that. Part of the capacity does not leave the market, but kind of sits on the sidelines or maybe just avoids, or maybe given the way the interstates flow, they are across multiple states and you cannot avoid enforcement. I just wanted to get your sense on that because it seems like such a big question. The potential impact is so large, but just kind of hard to know if it all comes out or not. Yeah. I mean, Tom, we're watching it extremely closely and it's something that we support. When you look at what this does for the industry, it makes it a safer industry. It eliminates fraud. It reduces theft. This is a positive thing for the industry. It also puts something front of mind for our customers. Customers are going to look at who they're doing business with. They're going to look to do business with large, financially stable companies that have provided them with great service. They provide them with solutions. They've got good technology that allows them to make better decisions as a customer. They're going to go back to the people who have delivered for them in the past. We think that we set up very, very well in that market. Do you have any visibility on kind of avoidance, or is that hard to measure? From the carriers? Yeah. This is Jamie. I mean, personally, what I see going on with the enforcement and what I think what the industry sees going on right now is I don't think there's going to be, this is not a state-by-state enforcement issue. This is more of a federal enforcement issue. Regardless of where a carrier may be, I think they're subject to being taken off the road wherever. It will take some time, but we are seeing the impact of the capacity and it impacted it very quickly. I don't think we would say there's any one spot that folks can go run loads in that is not under risk of being caught. I think it'll be a continued enforcement. Tom, just remember, you only have to drive a few hundred miles in any direction to be on another state line. Yeah, right. That's where it seems like it's maybe tough to. Maybe some states are easier, but hard to avoid states that are enforcing pretty significantly. Okay. Great. Thanks for the time. Thank you. Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners. You may now begin. Thank you very much. Good morning, everybody. Drew, question. I know nobody can predict how long this squeeze is going to go on. I guess kind of following Scott and Jordan's question a little bit, if things just stayed static where they are right now, where the market is. I know you talked about one to two quarters, two to three quarters. How long would it take you to price up to where this was not impacting the franchise anymore if it did not get worse from where it was? Yeah. I mean, the biggest thing that we're watching right there is what happens on tender rejections. And if you look, even though demand is down significantly, tender rejections have gone up to over 6%. Right now, you are starting to see capacity push it to where it goes. It's not necessarily as much on the contract rates that you're watching right there. It's more what happens on the tender rejections whenever routing guides start to break. On the spot, with demand extremely depressed, you're starting to see pressure on tender rejections. That's mostly what I'm watching right now, Jeff. Where do we need to see normally tenders to get to where you can push price? Does it need to be above 8? Does it need to be above 10? Kind of where is that historic kind of breaking point? Yeah. It needs to be at 10 or above. That's typically whenever you start to see tender rejections called spot loads. Whenever it gets into the mid-teens, that's excessive spot loads. If you get back into a COVID-like environment, I think it was sitting in the high 20s, low 30s during that time frame. Your point would be in the long run, this is a good thing. When the market does stabilize, we're better off. It would be the takeaway. In the long run, this is not a good thing. This is a great thing. You're talking about the carriers that customers are doing business with, the people who have been there for them, that they know that have the right qualifications on who they're doing business with. That's what they're looking for. For us, the quality of carriers that we work for, the bar is extremely high. This is not something that we just started doing because of the federal mandates. If you go on and you look at our website, you can't go on and start a trucking company and do business with today. A lot of the large brokerages, you can go on and start doing business with today. We want to be able to monitor your safe set score. We want to be able to see a history of what you've done. A lot of other brokers, you can go out there and you can do your first loads with them digitally. While digital is an important aspect of being able to do freight, the first thing that we want to do is get to know the carriers that we're doing business with. We do not allow your first few loads to be booked digitally. We want to know who we're doing business with as you come onto the platform. We built the business off of high cargo value, off of automotive. The vetting process for carriers for us has always been very strict and always been above federal guidelines. We think we're in a very good position to win off of that. Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you. That appears to be our last question. I'll turn the conference back to Drew Wilkerson for any additional remarks. Thank you, Michael. We're in a squeeze, but I remain extremely confident in RXO's ability to deliver outsized earnings growth over the long term. Our improved cost structure, larger scale, continued focus on profitable growth, best-in-class technology, and ability to generate cash are differentiators for RXO. We remain focused on what has made us so successful over the past decade plus. We provide exceptional service, a comprehensive set of solutions, cutting-edge technology, and deep customer relationships. Thank you all for your time today and look forward to seeing you soon. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the RXO Q3 2025 earnings conference call and website. My name is Michael, and I will be your operator for today's call. Please note that this conference is being recorded. During this call, the company will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws, which, by their nature, involve a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. A discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's SEC filings as well as in its earnings release. You should refer to a copy of the company's earnings release in the Investors Relations section on the company's website for additional information regarding forward-looking statements and disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures the company uses when discussing its results. Welcome to the RXO Q3 2025 earnings conference call and website. welcome to the rxo q3 2025 earnings conference call and website My name is Michael, and I will be your operator for today's call. my name is michael and i will be your operator for today's call Please note that this conference is being recorded. please note that this conference is being recorded During this call, the company will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws, which, by their nature, involve a number of risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. during this call the company will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws which by their nature involve a number of risks uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements A discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's SEC filings as well as in its earnings release. a discussion of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially is contained in the company's sec filings as well as in its earnings release You should refer to a copy of the company's earnings release in the Investors Relations section on the company's website for additional information regarding forward-looking statements and disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures the company uses when discussing its results. you should refer to a copy of the company's earnings release in the investors relations section on the company's website for additional information regarding forward-looking statements and disclosures and reconciliations of non-gaap financial measures the company uses when discussing its results I will now turn the call over to Drew Wilkerson. Mr. Wilkerson, you may now begin. I will now turn the call over to Drew Wilkerson. i will now turn the call over to drew wilkerson Mr. Wilkerson, you may now begin. mr wilkerson you may now begin
Speaker 5: Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today. I'm here in Charlotte with RXO's Chief Financial Officer, Jamie Harris, and Chief Strategy Officer, Jared Weisfeld. This morning, we announced our third-quarter results. Year-over-year, overall brokerage volume grew 1%, driven by less-than-truckload volume growth of 43%. Brokerage truckload volume declined by 11% year-over-year but increased by 1% sequentially. Last-mile stops grew by 12% year-over-year, the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. We added cash to the balance sheet and had 56% adjusted free cash flow conversion. Brokerage gross margin was 13.5%. RXO's EBITDA was $32 million in the quarter, below our expectations. Contrary to our assumptions on last quarter's call, the market tightened in September. Capacity began exiting in certain regions, driven primarily by regulatory changes and enforcement. About two-thirds of RXO's freight in the quarter came from regions where buy rates increased, and this impacted our results. Good morning, everyone. good morning everyone Thank you for joining today. thank you for joining today I'm here in Charlotte with RXO's Chief Financial Officer, Jamie Harris, and Chief Strategy Officer, Jared Weisfeld. i'm here in charlotte with rxo's chief financial officer jamie harris and chief strategy officer jared weisfeld This morning, we announced our third-quarter results. this morning we announced our third-quarter results Year-over-year, overall brokerage volume grew 1%, driven by less-than-truckload volume growth of 43%. year-over-year overall brokerage volume grew 1% driven by less-than-truckload volume growth of 43% Brokerage truckload volume declined by 11% year-over-year but increased by 1% sequentially. brokerage truckload volume declined by 11% year-over-year but increased by 1% sequentially Last-mile stops grew by 12% year-over-year, the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. last-mile stops grew by 12% year-over-year the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth We added cash to the balance sheet and had 56% adjusted free cash flow conversion. we added cash to the balance sheet and had 56% adjusted free cash flow conversion Brokerage gross margin was 13.5%. brokerage gross margin was 13.5% RXO's EBITDA was $32 million in the quarter, below our expectations. rxo's ebitda was $32 million in the quarter below our expectations Contrary to our assumptions on last quarter's call, the market tightened in September. contrary to our assumptions on last quarter's call the market tightened in september Capacity began exiting in certain regions, driven primarily by regulatory changes and enforcement. capacity began exiting in certain regions driven primarily by regulatory changes and enforcement About two-thirds of RXO's freight in the quarter came from regions where buy rates increased, and this impacted our results. about two-thirds of rxo's freight in the quarter came from regions where buy rates increased and this impacted our results Buy rates increased faster than our contractual sale rates, with no meaningful corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities. We take our commitments to our customers very seriously and continue to honor the service commitments we made in the quarter. Industry tender rejections in the third quarter were 6%. RXO's were just 2%. This built trust and strengthened relationships with our customers, and you can see the impact of our efforts and recognition we recently received from blue-chip customers, including United States Cold Storage, Owens Corning, and Eltonium. Reliably serving our customers' freight at this point in the market cycle will position RXO to win more spot loads and mini-bids as the market recovers. Now, I'd like to provide you with the details on our fourth-quarter expectations, including EBITDA between $20 million and $30 million. Buy rates increased faster than our contractual sale rates, with no meaningful corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities. buy rates increased faster than our contractual sale rates with no meaningful corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities We take our commitments to our customers very seriously and continue to honor the service commitments we made in the quarter. we take our commitments to our customers very seriously and continue to honor the service commitments we made in the quarter Industry tender rejections in the third quarter were 6%. industry tender rejections in the third quarter were 6% RXO's were just 2%. rxo's were just 2% This built trust and strengthened relationships with our customers, and you can see the impact of our efforts and recognition we recently received from blue-chip customers, including United States Cold Storage, Owens Corning, and Eltonium. this built trust and strengthened relationships with our customers and you can see the impact of our efforts and recognition we recently received from blue-chip customers including united states cold storage owens corning and eltonium Reliably serving our customers' freight at this point in the market cycle will position RXO to win more spot loads and mini-bids as the market recovers. reliably serving our customers' freight at this point in the market cycle will position rxo to win more spot loads and mini-bids as the market recovers Now, I'd like to provide you with the details on our fourth-quarter expectations, including EBITDA between $20 million and $30 million. now i'd like to provide you with the details on our fourth-quarter expectations including ebitda between $20 million and $30 million The biggest driver of the sequential decline is volume weakness within our last-mile business, which is counter to typical seasonality. While we posted another quarter of impressive double-digit stock growth in the third quarter, since Labor Day, we've seen a weakening in demand for big and bulky goods. Jamie and Jared will discuss this in more detail later in the call. In brokerage, we expect the squeeze dynamic to intensify into the fourth quarter. At this point in the cycle, roughly 70% of our truckload brokerage business is contract, primarily with enterprise customers, so the squeeze on our gross profit per load has been acute. In addition, we have not yet seen a meaningful increase in accretive spot opportunities. When demand ultimately recovers, spot loads will increase, which will be accretive to gross profit per load, helping to offset the higher cost of purchased transportation. The biggest driver of the sequential decline is volume weakness within our last-mile business, which is counter to typical seasonality. the biggest driver of the sequential decline is volume weakness within our last-mile business which is counter to typical seasonality While we posted another quarter of impressive double-digit stock growth in the third quarter, since Labor Day, we've seen a weakening in demand for big and bulky goods. while we posted another quarter of impressive double-digit stock growth in the third quarter since labor day we've seen a weakening in demand for big and bulky goods Jamie and Jared will discuss this in more detail later in the call. jamie and jared will discuss this in more detail later in the call In brokerage, we expect the squeeze dynamic to intensify into the fourth quarter. in brokerage we expect the squeeze dynamic to intensify into the fourth quarter At this point in the cycle, roughly 70% of our truckload brokerage business is contract, primarily with enterprise customers, so the squeeze on our gross profit per load has been acute. at this point in the cycle roughly 70% of our truckload brokerage business is contract primarily with enterprise customers so the squeeze on our gross profit per load has been acute In addition, we have not yet seen a meaningful increase in accretive spot opportunities. in addition we have not yet seen a meaningful increase in accretive spot opportunities When demand ultimately recovers, spot loads will increase, which will be accretive to gross profit per load, helping to offset the higher cost of purchased transportation. when demand ultimately recovers spot loads will increase which will be accretive to gross profit per load helping to offset the higher cost of purchased transportation The big question is whether these changes to the industry capacity are permanent. If the regulatory changes hold and enforcement continues, we believe a significant amount of truckload capacity will permanently exit the market. This will help improve the overall safety of the industry as well as help combat theft and fraud. This has the potential to be one of the largest structural changes to truckload supply since deregulation and could result in a higher-for-longer freight environment. RXO is well-positioned to capitalize on that if it occurs because of our larger scale as the third-largest provider of brokered transportation. However, for a sustained freight market recovery, we need increased demand for goods, and we aren't seeing that yet. Demand trends weakened throughout the third quarter and remained below typical seasonality. In fact, during the month of August, cash freight shipments reached their lowest level since 2020. The big question is whether these changes to the industry capacity are permanent. the big question is whether these changes to the industry capacity are permanent If the regulatory changes hold and enforcement continues, we believe a significant amount of truckload capacity will permanently exit the market. if the regulatory changes hold and enforcement continues we believe a significant amount of truckload capacity will permanently exit the market This will help improve the overall safety of the industry as well as help combat theft and fraud. this will help improve the overall safety of the industry as well as help combat theft and fraud This has the potential to be one of the largest structural changes to truckload supply since deregulation and could result in a higher-for-longer freight environment. this has the potential to be one of the largest structural changes to truckload supply since deregulation and could result in a higher-for-longer freight environment RXO is well-positioned to capitalize on that if it occurs because of our larger scale as the third-largest provider of brokered transportation. rxo is well-positioned to capitalize on that if it occurs because of our larger scale as the third-largest provider of brokered transportation However, for a sustained freight market recovery, we need increased demand for goods, and we aren't seeing that yet. however for a sustained freight market recovery we need increased demand for goods and we aren't seeing that yet Demand trends weakened throughout the third quarter and remained below typical seasonality. demand trends weakened throughout the third quarter and remained below typical seasonality In fact, during the month of August, cash freight shipments reached their lowest level since 2020. in fact during the month of august cash freight shipments reached their lowest level since 2020 We continue to take strategic actions to position RXO for both the short-term and the long-term. We've greatly improved RXO's cost structure throughout the downturn and took additional action in the third quarter. Since we've become a public standalone company, we've removed more than $125 million of cost. That is a significant improvement to our cost structure. Right now, the impact is being masked by the market-driven declines in gross profit per load. We're looking at our actions holistically. Some examples of our initiatives include investing in artificial intelligence that frees up time for our team to focus on our customers' most challenging problems, optimizing our real estate footprint, and right-sizing our teams to ensure the optimal balance between current demand and ensuring we're staffed for growth. Given the sustained soft freight market conditions, we've been moving quickly to streamline our costs within our brokerage business. We continue to take strategic actions to position RXO for both the short-term and the long-term. we continue to take strategic actions to position rxo for both the short-term and the long-term We've greatly improved RXO's cost structure throughout the downturn and took additional action in the third quarter. we've greatly improved rxo's cost structure throughout the downturn and took additional action in the third quarter Since we've become a public standalone company, we've removed more than $125 million of cost. since we've become a public standalone company we've removed more than $125 million of cost That is a significant improvement to our cost structure. that is a significant improvement to our cost structure Right now, the impact is being masked by the market-driven declines in gross profit per load. right now the impact is being masked by the market-driven declines in gross profit per load We're looking at our actions holistically. we're looking at our actions holistically Some examples of our initiatives include investing in artificial intelligence that frees up time for our team to focus on our customers' most challenging problems, optimizing our real estate footprint, and right-sizing our teams to ensure the optimal balance between current demand and ensuring we're staffed for growth. some examples of our initiatives include investing in artificial intelligence that frees up time for our team to focus on our customers' most challenging problems optimizing our real estate footprint and right-sizing our teams to ensure the optimal balance between current demand and ensuring we're staffed for growth Given the sustained soft freight market conditions, we've been moving quickly to streamline our costs within our brokerage business. given the sustained soft freight market conditions we've been moving quickly to streamline our costs within our brokerage business As an example, in the third quarter, brokerage headcount declined by approximately 15% year-over-year. Our actions to date, including our investments in technology, have already yielded substantial productivity gains in brokerage. Productivity increased by 19% over the last 12 months and by 38% over the last two years. These are sticky changes to our business that will yield benefits in the future. I remain extremely confident in RXO's ability to deliver outsized earnings growth over the long term because of five things: our improved cost structure, larger scale, continued focus on profitable growth, best-in-class technology, and ability to generate cash. First, our much more efficient cost structure will provide us with significant operating leverage when the market improves. Second, we have a much larger scale. Scale is a differentiator in brokerage, and I'll highlight two examples. Scale enables us to purchase transportation more effectively. As an example, in the third quarter, brokerage headcount declined by approximately 15% year-over-year. as an example in the third quarter brokerage headcount declined by approximately 15% year-over-year Our actions to date, including our investments in technology, have already yielded substantial productivity gains in brokerage. our actions to date including our investments in technology have already yielded substantial productivity gains in brokerage Productivity increased by 19% over the last 12 months and by 38% over the last two years. productivity increased by 19% over the last 12 months and by 38% over the last two years These are sticky changes to our business that will yield benefits in the future. these are sticky changes to our business that will yield benefits in the future I remain extremely confident in RXO's ability to deliver outsized earnings growth over the long term because of five things: our improved cost structure, larger scale, continued focus on profitable growth, best-in-class technology, and ability to generate cash. i remain extremely confident in rxo's ability to deliver outsized earnings growth over the long term because of five things our improved cost structure larger scale continued focus on profitable growth best-in-class technology and ability to generate cash First, our much more efficient cost structure will provide us with significant operating leverage when the market improves. first our much more efficient cost structure will provide us with significant operating leverage when the market improves Second, we have a much larger scale. second we have a much larger scale Scale is a differentiator in brokerage, and I'll highlight two examples. scale is a differentiator in brokerage and i'll highlight two examples Scale enables us to purchase transportation more effectively. scale enables us to purchase transportation more effectively Our common technology platform is helping us capitalize on additional power lanes while providing the best truck for each load. During the third quarter, our incremental buy rate favorability was similar to last quarter and approximately 30-50 basis points better when compared to the period before the carrier migration. Those improvements were more than offset by the September market tightening I mentioned earlier. We expect our buy rate favorability to further improve as we increase productivity across the organization. We remain confident that over time, our favorability will increase to approximately 100 basis points. Another benefit of scale is a decreased cost per load. This was one of the guiding principles of the Coyote acquisition, and we achieved results in this area. Since our spend, our cost per load has decreased by more than 20%. Our common technology platform is helping us capitalize on additional power lanes while providing the best truck for each load. our common technology platform is helping us capitalize on additional power lanes while providing the best truck for each load During the third quarter, our incremental buy rate favorability was similar to last quarter and approximately 30-50 basis points better when compared to the period before the carrier migration. during the third quarter our incremental buy rate favorability was similar to last quarter and approximately 30-50 basis points better when compared to the period before the carrier migration Those improvements were more than offset by the September market tightening I mentioned earlier. those improvements were more than offset by the september market tightening i mentioned earlier We expect our buy rate favorability to further improve as we increase productivity across the organization. we expect our buy rate favorability to further improve as we increase productivity across the organization We remain confident that over time, our favorability will increase to approximately 100 basis points. we remain confident that over time our favorability will increase to approximately 100 basis points Another benefit of scale is a decreased cost per load. another benefit of scale is a decreased cost per load This was one of the guiding principles of the Coyote acquisition, and we achieved results in this area. this was one of the guiding principles of the coyote acquisition and we achieved results in this area Since our spend, our cost per load has decreased by more than 20%. since our spend our cost per load has decreased by more than 20% We're effectively leveraging our increased scale and technology platform and will continue to bring down our cost to serve. The third driver of long-term value creation for RXO is profitable growth. This is part of our DNA, and we have continued opportunities to drive future growth. In addition to growing our core truckload business, we will also grow by offering valuable premium services that deepen relationships with customers. We're also in the early stages of growing more consistent sources of EBITDA, including managed transportation and LTL, because they reliably bring in strong and more consistent profits through market cycles. In the third quarter, we grew LTL volume by 43%. While LTL volume has grown significantly, it only represents about 10% of total brokerage gross profit dollars. We have a long runway in LTL. We have an exceptional track record when it comes to growth. We're effectively leveraging our increased scale and technology platform and will continue to bring down our cost to serve. we're effectively leveraging our increased scale and technology platform and will continue to bring down our cost to serve The third driver of long-term value creation for RXO is profitable growth. the third driver of long-term value creation for rxo is profitable growth This is part of our DNA, and we have continued opportunities to drive future growth. this is part of our dna and we have continued opportunities to drive future growth In addition to growing our core truckload business, we will also grow by offering valuable premium services that deepen relationships with customers. in addition to growing our core truckload business we will also grow by offering valuable premium services that deepen relationships with customers We're also in the early stages of growing more consistent sources of EBITDA, including managed transportation and LTL, because they reliably bring in strong and more consistent profits through market cycles. we're also in the early stages of growing more consistent sources of ebitda including managed transportation and ltl because they reliably bring in strong and more consistent profits through market cycles In the third quarter, we grew LTL volume by 43%. in the third quarter we grew ltl volume by 43% While LTL volume has grown significantly, it only represents about 10% of total brokerage gross profit dollars. while ltl volume has grown significantly it only represents about 10% of total brokerage gross profit dollars We have a long runway in LTL. we have a long runway in ltl We have an exceptional track record when it comes to growth. we have an exceptional track record when it comes to growth Over the five years prior to the Coyote acquisition, RXO grew total volume by 72% organically and 11% CAGR. Fourth, our technology is the differentiator. Customers and carriers constantly tell us that our tech is the best and easiest to use in the industry. We invest heavily in this area, spending over $100 million every year. This technology, powered by AI and machine learning, helps our employees be more productive, freeing up their time to focus on our customers and carriers. It also enhances our customer experience and drives our pricing engines. Fifth, our asset-like business model enables us to produce strong cash flow. In the quarter, despite the soft market conditions, our adjusted free cash flow conversion was 56%. We remain confident in delivering 40-60% conversion across market cycles. Over the five years prior to the Coyote acquisition, RXO grew total volume by 72% organically and 11% CAGR. over the five years prior to the coyote acquisition rxo grew total volume by 72% organically and 11% cagr Fourth, our technology is the differentiator. fourth our technology is the differentiator Customers and carriers constantly tell us that our tech is the best and easiest to use in the industry. customers and carriers constantly tell us that our tech is the best and easiest to use in the industry We invest heavily in this area, spending over $100 million every year. we invest heavily in this area spending over $100 million every year This technology, powered by AI and machine learning, helps our employees be more productive, freeing up their time to focus on our customers and carriers. this technology powered by ai and machine learning helps our employees be more productive freeing up their time to focus on our customers and carriers It also enhances our customer experience and drives our pricing engines. it also enhances our customer experience and drives our pricing engines Fifth, our asset-like business model enables us to produce strong cash flow. fifth our asset-like business model enables us to produce strong cash flow In the quarter, despite the soft market conditions, our adjusted free cash flow conversion was 56%. in the quarter despite the soft market conditions our adjusted free cash flow conversion was 56% We remain confident in delivering 40-60% conversion across market cycles. we remain confident in delivering 40-60% conversion across market cycles In conclusion, although we're in a challenging market environment and we're not satisfied with our near-term performance, we've taken decisive strategic actions. We remain focused on what has made us so successful over the past decade-plus. We provide exceptional service, a comprehensive set of solutions, cutting-edge technology, and deep customer relationships. All of this provides RXO with a unique algorithm for long-term growth. Now, Jamie will discuss our financial results in more detail. In conclusion, although we're in a challenging market environment and we're not satisfied with our near-term performance, we've taken decisive strategic actions. in conclusion although we're in a challenging market environment and we're not satisfied with our near-term performance we've taken decisive strategic actions We remain focused on what has made us so successful over the past decade-plus. we remain focused on what has made us so successful over the past decade-plus We provide exceptional service, a comprehensive set of solutions, cutting-edge technology, and deep customer relationships. we provide exceptional service a comprehensive set of solutions cutting-edge technology and deep customer relationships All of this provides RXO with a unique algorithm for long-term growth. all of this provides rxo with a unique algorithm for long-term growth Now, Jamie will discuss our financial results in more detail. now jamie will discuss our financial results in more detail
Speaker 11: Thank you, Drew, and good morning. Let's review our third-quarter performance in more detail. Our results were slightly below our outlook. For the quarter, we reported $1.4 billion in total revenue, gross margin of 16.5%, Adjusted EBITDA of $32 million, and an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 2.3%. Gross margin and Adjusted EBITDA were primarily impacted by the increase in cost of transportation, further broad-based demand weakness, and continued headwinds in the automotive sector. As Drew mentioned, cost of transportation increased without a corresponding increase in sale rates or accretive spot opportunities. This caused a margin squeeze on our contractual brokerage volume during the month of September. Jared will provide more details later in the call. Automotive was a continued headwind and represented an approximately $5 million year-over-year margin impact in the quarter. Thank you, Drew, and good morning. thank you drew and good morning Let's review our third-quarter performance in more detail. let's review our third-quarter performance in more detail Our results were slightly below our outlook. our results were slightly below our outlook For the quarter, we reported $1.4 billion in total revenue, gross margin of 16.5%, Adjusted EBITDA of $32 million, and an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 2.3%. for the quarter we reported $1.4 billion in total revenue gross margin of 16.5% adjusted ebitda of $32 million and an adjusted ebitda margin of 2.3% Gross margin and Adjusted EBITDA were primarily impacted by the increase in cost of transportation, further broad-based demand weakness, and continued headwinds in the automotive sector. gross margin and adjusted ebitda were primarily impacted by the increase in cost of transportation further broad-based demand weakness and continued headwinds in the automotive sector As Drew mentioned, cost of transportation increased without a corresponding increase in sale rates or accretive spot opportunities. as drew mentioned cost of transportation increased without a corresponding increase in sale rates or accretive spot opportunities This caused a margin squeeze on our contractual brokerage volume during the month of September. this caused a margin squeeze on our contractual brokerage volume during the month of september Jared will provide more details later in the call. jared will provide more details later in the call Automotive was a continued headwind and represented an approximately $5 million year-over-year margin impact in the quarter. automotive was a continued headwind and represented an approximately $5 million year-over-year margin impact in the quarter As we discussed over the past two quarters, this freight is time-critical and with high service requirements and typically carries a higher-than-average gross margin with strong flow-through to EBITDA. Below the line, our interest expense was $9 million. For the quarter, our adjusted earnings per share was $0.01. You can find a bridge to Adjusted EBITDA on slide seven of the earnings presentation. Now, I'd like to give an overview of our performance within our lines of business. Brokerage revenue was $1 billion and represented 70% of our total revenue. Overall, brokerage volume growth was 1% in the quarter. We had strong LTL growth of 43%, which was offset by an 11% decline in full truckload volume. The year-over-year decline in truckload volume was impacted by overall demand weakness, softness in the automotive sector, and efforts we undertook with customers to optimize price, volume, and service. As we discussed over the past two quarters, this freight is time-critical and with high service requirements and typically carries a higher-than-average gross margin with strong flow-through to EBITDA. as we discussed over the past two quarters this freight is time-critical and with high service requirements and typically carries a higher-than-average gross margin with strong flow-through to ebitda Below the line, our interest expense was $9 million. below the line our interest expense was $9 million For the quarter, our adjusted earnings per share was $0.01. for the quarter our adjusted earnings per share was $0.01 You can find a bridge to Adjusted EBITDA on slide seven of the earnings presentation. you can find a bridge to adjusted ebitda on slide seven of the earnings presentation Now, I'd like to give an overview of our performance within our lines of business. now i'd like to give an overview of our performance within our lines of business Brokerage revenue was $1 billion and represented 70% of our total revenue. brokerage revenue was $1 billion and represented 70% of our total revenue Overall, brokerage volume growth was 1% in the quarter. overall brokerage volume growth was 1% in the quarter We had strong LTL growth of 43%, which was offset by an 11% decline in full truckload volume. we had strong ltl growth of 43% which was offset by an 11% decline in full truckload volume The year-over-year decline in truckload volume was impacted by overall demand weakness, softness in the automotive sector, and efforts we undertook with customers to optimize price, volume, and service. the year-over-year decline in truckload volume was impacted by overall demand weakness softness in the automotive sector and efforts we undertook with customers to optimize price volume and service Given the market tightening in September. Brokerage gross margin was down 90 basis points sequentially to 13.5% at the low end of our outlook. Complementary services revenue in the quarter of $442 million increased by 5% year-over-year and was 30% of our total revenue. Gross margin within complementary services was 21.3%. Now, let's discuss each line of business within complementary services. Managed transportation generated $137 million of revenue in the quarter, down 9% year-over-year. Managed transportation continues to be impacted by lower automotive volume in our managed expedite business. Our last-mile business generated $305 million in revenue in the quarter, up 14% year-over-year. Last-mile stops grew by 12%. However, over the past few months, we have seen a weakening in the big and bulky demand. This trend has worsened into the fourth quarter. Let's now discuss cash. Please refer to slide eight. Given the market tightening in September. given the market tightening in september Brokerage gross margin was down 90 basis points sequentially to 13.5% at the low end of our outlook. brokerage gross margin was down 90 basis points sequentially to 13.5% at the low end of our outlook Complementary services revenue in the quarter of $442 million increased by 5% year-over-year and was 30% of our total revenue. complementary services revenue in the quarter of $442 million increased by 5% year-over-year and was 30% of our total revenue Gross margin within complementary services was 21.3%. gross margin within complementary services was 21.3% Now, let's discuss each line of business within complementary services. now let's discuss each line of business within complementary services Managed transportation generated $137 million of revenue in the quarter, down 9% year-over-year. managed transportation generated $137 million of revenue in the quarter down 9% year-over-year Managed transportation continues to be impacted by lower automotive volume in our managed expedite business. managed transportation continues to be impacted by lower automotive volume in our managed expedite business Our last-mile business generated $305 million in revenue in the quarter, up 14% year-over-year. our last-mile business generated $305 million in revenue in the quarter up 14% year-over-year Last-mile stops grew by 12%. last-mile stops grew by 12% However, over the past few months, we have seen a weakening in the big and bulky demand. however over the past few months we have seen a weakening in the big and bulky demand This trend has worsened into the fourth quarter. this trend has worsened into the fourth quarter Let's now discuss cash. let's now discuss cash Please refer to slide eight. please refer to slide eight Adjusted free cash flow in the third quarter was $18 million, yielding a strong 56% conversion from Adjusted EBITDA. As a reminder, our semi-annual interest payment is not due until the fourth quarter, which benefited our third-quarter conversion. Year-to-date, our conversion is 50%. We're very pleased with our conversion at this point in the freight cycle. Given our asset-light business model, we remain confident in a 40-60% conversion over the long term and across market cycles. We ended the quarter with $25 million of cash on the balance sheet, which increased by $7 million sequentially with no change to the revolver balance. We grew our cash balance despite $9 million of restructuring, transaction, and integration cash outflows. As you can see on slide nine, our liquidity position continues to be strong with $590 million of total committed liquidity, of which approximately $375 million is currently available. Adjusted free cash flow in the third quarter was $18 million, yielding a strong 56% conversion from Adjusted EBITDA. adjusted free cash flow in the third quarter was $18 million yielding a strong 56% conversion from adjusted ebitda As a reminder, our semi-annual interest payment is not due until the fourth quarter, which benefited our third-quarter conversion. as a reminder our semi-annual interest payment is not due until the fourth quarter which benefited our third-quarter conversion Year-to-date, our conversion is 50%. year-to-date our conversion is 50% We're very pleased with our conversion at this point in the freight cycle. we're very pleased with our conversion at this point in the freight cycle Given our asset-light business model, we remain confident in a 40-60% conversion over the long term and across market cycles. given our asset-light business model we remain confident in a 40-60% conversion over the long term and across market cycles We ended the quarter with $25 million of cash on the balance sheet, which increased by $7 million sequentially with no change to the revolver balance. we ended the quarter with $25 million of cash on the balance sheet which increased by $7 million sequentially with no change to the revolver balance We grew our cash balance despite $9 million of restructuring, transaction, and integration cash outflows. we grew our cash balance despite $9 million of restructuring transaction and integration cash outflows As you can see on slide nine, our liquidity position continues to be strong with $590 million of total committed liquidity, of which approximately $375 million is currently available. as you can see on slide nine our liquidity position continues to be strong with $590 million of total committed liquidity of which approximately $375 million is currently available Quarter-end net leverage was 2.3 times LTM bank-Adjusted EBITDA, up slightly when compared to the prior quarter. I now like to talk about the actions we've taken to optimize our cost structure. We've taken actions to achieve more than $125 million of annualized expense savings, including $65 million of post-spend cost and $60 million of cost synergies related to the Coyote acquisition. Today, we announced that we're taking additional actions that would yield more than $30 million of incremental annualized savings. Collectively, this means a total reduction in annualized expenses over the last three years of more than $155 million. We're optimizing our cost structure, operating more efficiently, and automating key processes. Now, let's discuss our expectations for the fourth quarter. Our outlook reflects a fluid macroeconomic environment with weakening freight demand and a continued increase in the cost to purchase transportation. Quarter-end net leverage was 2.3 times LTM bank-Adjusted EBITDA, up slightly when compared to the prior quarter. quarter-end net leverage was 2.3 times ltm bank-adjusted ebitda up slightly when compared to the prior quarter I now like to talk about the actions we've taken to optimize our cost structure. i now like to talk about the actions we've taken to optimize our cost structure We've taken actions to achieve more than $125 million of annualized expense savings, including $65 million of post-spend cost and $60 million of cost synergies related to the Coyote acquisition. we've taken actions to achieve more than $125 million of annualized expense savings including $65 million of post-spend cost and $60 million of cost synergies related to the coyote acquisition Today, we announced that we're taking additional actions that would yield more than $30 million of incremental annualized savings. today we announced that we're taking additional actions that would yield more than $30 million of incremental annualized savings Collectively, this means a total reduction in annualized expenses over the last three years of more than $155 million. collectively this means a total reduction in annualized expenses over the last three years of more than $155 million We're optimizing our cost structure, operating more efficiently, and automating key processes. we're optimizing our cost structure operating more efficiently and automating key processes Now, let's discuss our expectations for the fourth quarter. now let's discuss our expectations for the fourth quarter Our outlook reflects a fluid macroeconomic environment with weakening freight demand and a continued increase in the cost to purchase transportation. our outlook reflects a fluid macroeconomic environment with weakening freight demand and a continued increase in the cost to purchase transportation For the combined company in the fourth quarter, we expect to generate between $20 million and $30 million of Adjusted EBITDA. While we would typically see a sequential increase in brokerage Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, that is being more than offset by higher costs to purchase transportation. We're also expecting a decline in complementary services driven by slowing demand and last mile, which is counter to normal seasonality. Jared will provide more details on our outlook shortly. Slide 14 includes our fourth quarter modeling assumptions. There are a few things I want to highlight. We expect CapEx of approximately $20 million. We're tracking towards the low end of our previously discussed $65 million-$75 million outlook for the full year 2025. For 2026, we continue to expect CapEx to be between $45 million and $55 million. Down materially year-over-year. For the combined company in the fourth quarter, we expect to generate between $20 million and $30 million of Adjusted EBITDA. for the combined company in the fourth quarter we expect to generate between $20 million and $30 million of adjusted ebitda While we would typically see a sequential increase in brokerage Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, that is being more than offset by higher costs to purchase transportation. while we would typically see a sequential increase in brokerage adjusted ebitda in the fourth quarter that is being more than offset by higher costs to purchase transportation We're also expecting a decline in complementary services driven by slowing demand and last mile, which is counter to normal seasonality. we're also expecting a decline in complementary services driven by slowing demand and last mile which is counter to normal seasonality Jared will provide more details on our outlook shortly. jared will provide more details on our outlook shortly Slide 14 includes our fourth quarter modeling assumptions. slide 14 includes our fourth quarter modeling assumptions There are a few things I want to highlight. there are a few things i want to highlight We expect CapEx of approximately $20 million. we expect capex of approximately $20 million We're tracking towards the low end of our previously discussed $65 million-$75 million outlook for the full year 2025. we're tracking towards the low end of our previously discussed $65 million-$75 million outlook for the full year 2025 For 2026, we continue to expect CapEx to be between $45 million and $55 million. for 2026 we continue to expect capex to be between $45 million and $55 million Down materially year-over-year. down materially year-over-year As we discussed, we're taking additional cost actions that will result in more than $30 million of annualized expense savings. In conjunction with these actions, we expect fourth quarter restructuring, transaction, and integration expenses to be approximately $15 million. Below the line, we expect net interest expense of approximately $9 million. An adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 30%, and fully diluted shares of 170 million. To summarize, recent accelerated capacity exits are putting upward pressure on our cost to purchase transportation and squeezing our contractual brokerage gross margin. This impacts near-term profitability given our large footprint of contract business with tier one shippers. We are reliably servicing our customers' freight and are well-positioned to win spot opportunities and special projects when demand recovers. As we discussed, we're taking additional cost actions that will result in more than $30 million of annualized expense savings. as we discussed we're taking additional cost actions that will result in more than $30 million of annualized expense savings In conjunction with these actions, we expect fourth quarter restructuring, transaction, and integration expenses to be approximately $15 million. in conjunction with these actions we expect fourth quarter restructuring transaction and integration expenses to be approximately $15 million Below the line, we expect net interest expense of approximately $9 million. below the line we expect net interest expense of approximately $9 million An adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 30%, and fully diluted shares of 170 million. an adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 30% and fully diluted shares of 170 million To summarize, recent accelerated capacity exits are putting upward pressure on our cost to purchase transportation and squeezing our contractual brokerage gross margin. to summarize recent accelerated capacity exits are putting upward pressure on our cost to purchase transportation and squeezing our contractual brokerage gross margin This impacts near-term profitability given our large footprint of contract business with tier one shippers. this impacts near-term profitability given our large footprint of contract business with tier one shippers We are reliably servicing our customers' freight and are well-positioned to win spot opportunities and special projects when demand recovers. we are reliably servicing our customers' freight and are well-positioned to win spot opportunities and special projects when demand recovers Longer term, as we think about the broader macroeconomy, we do see positive developments such as lower interest rates, new tax legislation, domestic investment announcements, and improving clarity on trade. Lower interest rates specifically can spur freight activity in many rate-sensitive industries such as the housing sector. As an example, according to the American Trucking Associations, every new home built requires between six and ten truckloads of goods to be shipped. Mortgage rates recently reached 12-month lows, and any recovery in the housing market would be positive for ground transportation and RXO. We are closely monitoring the macro environment and are positioned to benefit when demand strengthens. Now, I'd like to turn it over to our Chief Strategy Officer, Jared Weisfeld, who will talk in more detail about our results and our outlook. Longer term, as we think about the broader macroeconomy, we do see positive developments such as lower interest rates, new tax legislation, domestic investment announcements, and improving clarity on trade. longer term as we think about the broader macroeconomy we do see positive developments such as lower interest rates new tax legislation domestic investment announcements and improving clarity on trade Lower interest rates specifically can spur freight activity in many rate-sensitive industries such as the housing sector. lower interest rates specifically can spur freight activity in many rate-sensitive industries such as the housing sector As an example, according to the American Trucking Associations, every new home built requires between six and ten truckloads of goods to be shipped. as an example according to the american trucking associations every new home built requires between six and ten truckloads of goods to be shipped Mortgage rates recently reached 12-month lows, and any recovery in the housing market would be positive for ground transportation and RXO. mortgage rates recently reached 12-month lows and any recovery in the housing market would be positive for ground transportation and rxo We are closely monitoring the macro environment and are positioned to benefit when demand strengthens. we are closely monitoring the macro environment and are positioned to benefit when demand strengthens Now, I'd like to turn it over to our Chief Strategy Officer, Jared Weisfeld, who will talk in more detail about our results and our outlook. now i'd like to turn it over to our chief strategy officer jared weisfeld who will talk in more detail about our results and our outlook
Speaker 10: Thanks, Jamie, and good morning, everyone. As I typically do, I'll start with an overview of our brokerage performance in the quarter. To make the comparisons more useful for you, I'll give you combined numbers that include Coyote's results in the prior period. Brokerage volume in the quarter was up 1% year-over-year, outpacing the CAS freight index. LTL volume increased by a strong 43% year-over-year. LTL represented 31% of brokerage volume in the quarter, up 900 basis points year-over-year and down slightly from the second quarter. Truckload volume was down 11% year-over-year and represented 69% of brokerage volume, up 100 basis points sequentially. Similar to last quarter, truckload volume was impacted by a decline in automotive, efforts we undertook with customers to optimize price, volume, and service, and broader market weakness. From a vertical perspective, automotive volume was down 22% year-over-year. Thanks, Jamie, and good morning, everyone. thanks jamie and good morning everyone As I typically do, I'll start with an overview of our brokerage performance in the quarter. as i typically do i'll start with an overview of our brokerage performance in the quarter To make the comparisons more useful for you, I'll give you combined numbers that include Coyote's results in the prior period. to make the comparisons more useful for you i'll give you combined numbers that include coyote's results in the prior period Brokerage volume in the quarter was up 1% year-over-year, outpacing the CAS freight index. brokerage volume in the quarter was up 1% year-over-year outpacing the cas freight index LTL volume increased by a strong 43% year-over-year. ltl volume increased by a strong 43% year-over-year LTL represented 31% of brokerage volume in the quarter, up 900 basis points year-over-year and down slightly from the second quarter. ltl represented 31% of brokerage volume in the quarter up 900 basis points year-over-year and down slightly from the second quarter Truckload volume was down 11% year-over-year and represented 69% of brokerage volume, up 100 basis points sequentially. truckload volume was down 11% year-over-year and represented 69% of brokerage volume up 100 basis points sequentially Similar to last quarter, truckload volume was impacted by a decline in automotive, efforts we undertook with customers to optimize price, volume, and service, and broader market weakness. similar to last quarter truckload volume was impacted by a decline in automotive efforts we undertook with customers to optimize price volume and service and broader market weakness From a vertical perspective, automotive volume was down 22% year-over-year. from a vertical perspective automotive volume was down 22% year-over-year In the industrial and manufacturing vertical, encouragingly, we saw a slight pickup sequentially, which was largely driven by special projects. Industrial manufacturing volume declined by 3% year-over-year. Contract volume was 71% of our overall truckload volume in the quarter. Contract business declined by 200 basis points sequentially and 100 basis points year-over-year. Spot represented 29% of our truckload volume in the quarter, up 200 basis points sequentially and 100 basis points year-over-year. This was partly tied to the Coyote technology integration. As we migrated shippers to RXO Connect from Bazooka, we benefited from an increase in API connectivity. This enhanced connectivity will also benefit the combined organization when the freight market eventually recovers. However, given the weakening demand environment, the spot opportunities were less robust when compared to the second quarter and not enough to offset the squeeze on our contractual book of business. In the industrial and manufacturing vertical, encouragingly, we saw a slight pickup sequentially, which was largely driven by special projects. in the industrial and manufacturing vertical encouragingly we saw a slight pickup sequentially which was largely driven by special projects Industrial manufacturing volume declined by 3% year-over-year. industrial manufacturing volume declined by 3% year-over-year Contract volume was 71% of our overall truckload volume in the quarter. contract volume was 71% of our overall truckload volume in the quarter Contract business declined by 200 basis points sequentially and 100 basis points year-over-year. contract business declined by 200 basis points sequentially and 100 basis points year-over-year Spot represented 29% of our truckload volume in the quarter, up 200 basis points sequentially and 100 basis points year-over-year. spot represented 29% of our truckload volume in the quarter up 200 basis points sequentially and 100 basis points year-over-year This was partly tied to the Coyote technology integration. this was partly tied to the coyote technology integration As we migrated shippers to RXO Connect from Bazooka, we benefited from an increase in API connectivity. as we migrated shippers to rxo connect from bazooka we benefited from an increase in api connectivity This enhanced connectivity will also benefit the combined organization when the freight market eventually recovers. this enhanced connectivity will also benefit the combined organization when the freight market eventually recovers However, given the weakening demand environment, the spot opportunities were less robust when compared to the second quarter and not enough to offset the squeeze on our contractual book of business. however given the weakening demand environment the spot opportunities were less robust when compared to the second quarter and not enough to offset the squeeze on our contractual book of business Before reviewing our financial performance and market conditions in more detail, I'd like to talk more about some of the technology offerings that we rolled out in the quarter. We deliver technology that drives improvements across four key pillars: volume, margin, productivity, and service. We've been developing and enhancing our artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for years, utilizing our proprietary data. During the quarter, we made progress further enhancing our AI capabilities across each pillar. We enhanced our proprietary and differentiated pricing model, which leverages the combined data of RXO and Coyote. We implemented agentic AI solutions to streamline carrier inquiries, reducing manual effort by tens of thousands of hours. We've deployed AI image solutions in last mile to ensure delivery and install quality, which has the opportunity to fully automate thousands of manual photo validations per day. Before reviewing our financial performance and market conditions in more detail, I'd like to talk more about some of the technology offerings that we rolled out in the quarter. before reviewing our financial performance and market conditions in more detail i'd like to talk more about some of the technology offerings that we rolled out in the quarter We deliver technology that drives improvements across four key pillars: volume, margin, productivity, and service. we deliver technology that drives improvements across four key pillars volume margin productivity and service We've been developing and enhancing our artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for years, utilizing our proprietary data. we've been developing and enhancing our artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities for years utilizing our proprietary data During the quarter, we made progress further enhancing our AI capabilities across each pillar. during the quarter we made progress further enhancing our ai capabilities across each pillar We enhanced our proprietary and differentiated pricing model, which leverages the combined data of RXO and Coyote. we enhanced our proprietary and differentiated pricing model which leverages the combined data of rxo and coyote We implemented agentic AI solutions to streamline carrier inquiries, reducing manual effort by tens of thousands of hours. we implemented agentic ai solutions to streamline carrier inquiries reducing manual effort by tens of thousands of hours We've deployed AI image solutions in last mile to ensure delivery and install quality, which has the opportunity to fully automate thousands of manual photo validations per day. we've deployed ai image solutions in last mile to ensure delivery and install quality which has the opportunity to fully automate thousands of manual photo validations per day Our engineering teams have been leveraging AI tools that have generated millions of lines of code. We're applying AI to structurally improve the long-term margin profile of the business. Let's now review our brokerage financial performance and market conditions in more detail. Starting with revenue per load on slide 10. In the third quarter, truckload revenue per load moderated. Year-over-year revenue per load, excluding the impact of changes in fuel prices and length of haul, increased by 1%. The demand environment also weakened in the third quarter, negatively impacting revenue per load. Let's move to slide 11 and discuss brokerage margin performance and current market conditions. As Drew mentioned, the truckload market tightened during the month of September. This squeezed the margins in our contractual book of business, resulting in a moderation in gross profit per load and third-quarter brokerage gross margin at the low end of our outlook. Our engineering teams have been leveraging AI tools that have generated millions of lines of code. our engineering teams have been leveraging ai tools that have generated millions of lines of code We're applying AI to structurally improve the long-term margin profile of the business. we're applying ai to structurally improve the long-term margin profile of the business Let's now review our brokerage financial performance and market conditions in more detail. let's now review our brokerage financial performance and market conditions in more detail Starting with revenue per load on slide 10. starting with revenue per load on slide 10 In the third quarter, truckload revenue per load moderated. in the third quarter truckload revenue per load moderated Year-over-year revenue per load, excluding the impact of changes in fuel prices and length of haul, increased by 1%. year-over-year revenue per load excluding the impact of changes in fuel prices and length of haul increased by 1% The demand environment also weakened in the third quarter, negatively impacting revenue per load. the demand environment also weakened in the third quarter negatively impacting revenue per load Let's move to slide 11 and discuss brokerage margin performance and current market conditions. let's move to slide 11 and discuss brokerage margin performance and current market conditions As Drew mentioned, the truckload market tightened during the month of September. as drew mentioned the truckload market tightened during the month of september This squeezed the margins in our contractual book of business, resulting in a moderation in gross profit per load and third-quarter brokerage gross margin at the low end of our outlook. this squeezed the margins in our contractual book of business resulting in a moderation in gross profit per load and third-quarter brokerage gross margin at the low end of our outlook From a market standpoint, buy rates and industry KPIs moved higher in the quarter. Tighter market conditions have been entirely driven by supply-side dynamics as overall demand has weakened. This tightening in supply is largely due to enforcement actions related to non-domiciled CDLs and English language proficiency. From a seasonal standpoint, buy rates typically eased during September. This year, however, the market moved counter-seasonally, and buy rates moved higher in September. This trend not only continued, but was even more pronounced in October, despite weaker demand. For the quarter, approximately two-thirds of our freight came from outbound states with buy rate increases. For example, we saw acute tightening in California and Texas. Over the last two months, industry-wide line haul spot rates have moved up by approximately 6 cents per mile, with no increase in sale rates or a corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities. From a market standpoint, buy rates and industry KPIs moved higher in the quarter. from a market standpoint buy rates and industry kpis moved higher in the quarter Tighter market conditions have been entirely driven by supply-side dynamics as overall demand has weakened. tighter market conditions have been entirely driven by supply-side dynamics as overall demand has weakened This tightening in supply is largely due to enforcement actions related to non-domiciled CDLs and English language proficiency. this tightening in supply is largely due to enforcement actions related to non-domiciled cdls and english language proficiency From a seasonal standpoint, buy rates typically eased during September. from a seasonal standpoint buy rates typically eased during september This year, however, the market moved counter-seasonally, and buy rates moved higher in September. this year however the market moved counter-seasonally and buy rates moved higher in september This trend not only continued, but was even more pronounced in October, despite weaker demand. this trend not only continued but was even more pronounced in october despite weaker demand For the quarter, approximately two-thirds of our freight came from outbound states with buy rate increases. for the quarter approximately two-thirds of our freight came from outbound states with buy rate increases For example, we saw acute tightening in California and Texas. for example we saw acute tightening in california and texas Over the last two months, industry-wide line haul spot rates have moved up by approximately 6 cents per mile, with no increase in sale rates or a corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities. over the last two months industry-wide line haul spot rates have moved up by approximately 6 cents per mile with no increase in sale rates or a corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities While RXO continued to procure transportation more favorably than the market, we are not immune to market squeezes given our large contractual book of business with tier one enterprise shippers. As it relates to purchase transportation savings from the Coyote acquisition, our incremental buy rate favorability was similar to the prior quarter at approximately 30-50 basis points. Our customer and carrier representatives continue to increase their familiarity and productivity within RXO Connect. We remain confident in our ability to achieve 100 basis points of incremental favorability over the long term. As a reminder, in tightening market conditions, such as the current market, incremental favorability serves as cost avoidance. Turning to slide 12, as we just discussed, truckload gross profit per load moderated in the third quarter given softer demand and tighter capacity. This market tightness intensified recently. While RXO continued to procure transportation more favorably than the market, we are not immune to market squeezes given our large contractual book of business with tier one enterprise shippers. while rxo continued to procure transportation more favorably than the market we are not immune to market squeezes given our large contractual book of business with tier one enterprise shippers As it relates to purchase transportation savings from the Coyote acquisition, our incremental buy rate favorability was similar to the prior quarter at approximately 30-50 basis points. as it relates to purchase transportation savings from the coyote acquisition our incremental buy rate favorability was similar to the prior quarter at approximately 30-50 basis points Our customer and carrier representatives continue to increase their familiarity and productivity within RXO Connect. our customer and carrier representatives continue to increase their familiarity and productivity within rxo connect We remain confident in our ability to achieve 100 basis points of incremental favorability over the long term. we remain confident in our ability to achieve 100 basis points of incremental favorability over the long term As a reminder, in tightening market conditions, such as the current market, incremental favorability serves as cost avoidance. as a reminder in tightening market conditions such as the current market incremental favorability serves as cost avoidance Turning to slide 12, as we just discussed, truckload gross profit per load moderated in the third quarter given softer demand and tighter capacity. turning to slide 12 as we just discussed truckload gross profit per load moderated in the third quarter given softer demand and tighter capacity This market tightness intensified recently. this market tightness intensified recently To put in perspective, our truckload gross profit per load in the month of October was approximately 25% behind our five-year average, excluding COVID highs. Incremental margins attributable to a gross profit per load increase are very strong, in excess of 80%. Moving to slide 13. RXO's LTL brokerage volume continues to outperform the broader LTL market. In the quarter, LTL gross profit per load also improved sequentially. We have many opportunities to continue to grow LTL volume with existing and new customers. I'd now like to look forward and give you some more details on our fourth quarter outlook. We're assuming a muted peak season and weak demand trends across all our lines of business. Starting with brokerage, we expect overall volume to decline by a low single-digit percent year-over-year, with continued soft truckload volume trends partially offset by strong LTL growth. To put in perspective, our truckload gross profit per load in the month of October was approximately 25% behind our five-year average, excluding COVID highs. to put in perspective our truckload gross profit per load in the month of october was approximately 25% behind our five-year average excluding covid highs Incremental margins attributable to a gross profit per load increase are very strong, in excess of 80%. incremental margins attributable to a gross profit per load increase are very strong in excess of 80% Moving to slide 13. moving to slide 13 RXO's LTL brokerage volume continues to outperform the broader LTL market. rxo's ltl brokerage volume continues to outperform the broader ltl market In the quarter, LTL gross profit per load also improved sequentially. in the quarter ltl gross profit per load also improved sequentially We have many opportunities to continue to grow LTL volume with existing and new customers. we have many opportunities to continue to grow ltl volume with existing and new customers I'd now like to look forward and give you some more details on our fourth quarter outlook. i'd now like to look forward and give you some more details on our fourth quarter outlook We're assuming a muted peak season and weak demand trends across all our lines of business. we're assuming a muted peak season and weak demand trends across all our lines of business Starting with brokerage, we expect overall volume to decline by a low single-digit percent year-over-year, with continued soft truckload volume trends partially offset by strong LTL growth. starting with brokerage we expect overall volume to decline by a low single-digit percent year-over-year with continued soft truckload volume trends partially offset by strong ltl growth Market tightness intensified in the month of October and is expected to persist throughout Q4, pressuring brokerage gross margin and gross profit per load. We anticipate that brokerage gross margin will be between 12% and 13%. Let's now talk about complementary services. In managed transportation, while the business has strong sales momentum and an expanded pipeline, managed expedite automotive headwinds continue to impact us in the near term. In last mile, demand trends within big and bulky have weakened after Labor Day, and we're taking that into account in our outlook. Putting it all together, we expect RXO's fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $20-$30 million. While we would typically see a sequential increase in brokerage Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, that is being more than offset by higher cost of purchase transportation. Market tightness intensified in the month of October and is expected to persist throughout Q4, pressuring brokerage gross margin and gross profit per load. market tightness intensified in the month of october and is expected to persist throughout q4 pressuring brokerage gross margin and gross profit per load We anticipate that brokerage gross margin will be between 12% and 13%. we anticipate that brokerage gross margin will be between 12% and 13% Let's now talk about complementary services. let's now talk about complementary services In managed transportation, while the business has strong sales momentum and an expanded pipeline, managed expedite automotive headwinds continue to impact us in the near term. in managed transportation while the business has strong sales momentum and an expanded pipeline managed expedite automotive headwinds continue to impact us in the near term In last mile, demand trends within big and bulky have weakened after Labor Day, and we're taking that into account in our outlook. in last mile demand trends within big and bulky have weakened after labor day and we're taking that into account in our outlook Putting it all together, we expect RXO's fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $20-$30 million. putting it all together we expect rxo's fourth quarter adjusted ebitda to be in the range of $20-$30 million While we would typically see a sequential increase in brokerage Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, that is being more than offset by higher cost of purchase transportation. while we would typically see a sequential increase in brokerage adjusted ebitda in the fourth quarter that is being more than offset by higher cost of purchase transportation We are also expecting a decline in complementary services driven by slowing demand in last mile, which is counter to normal seasonality. Taken together, the impact of these two items is approximately $15 million. Similar to previous quarters, we thought it would also be helpful to share some assumptions underlying our fourth quarter outlook. The low end of our Adjusted EBITDA outlook assumes a further moderation of our truckload gross profit per load. This would include a continued increase in buy rates and no corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities. The high end of our outlook assumes an increase in our gross profit per load and improvement in brokerage gross margin. This would include accretive spot opportunities to offset the squeeze. To close, we continue to operate in a soft demand environment. We are also expecting a decline in complementary services driven by slowing demand in last mile, which is counter to normal seasonality. we are also expecting a decline in complementary services driven by slowing demand in last mile which is counter to normal seasonality Taken together, the impact of these two items is approximately $15 million. taken together the impact of these two items is approximately $15 million Similar to previous quarters, we thought it would also be helpful to share some assumptions underlying our fourth quarter outlook. similar to previous quarters we thought it would also be helpful to share some assumptions underlying our fourth quarter outlook The low end of our Adjusted EBITDA outlook assumes a further moderation of our truckload gross profit per load. the low end of our adjusted ebitda outlook assumes a further moderation of our truckload gross profit per load This would include a continued increase in buy rates and no corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities. this would include a continued increase in buy rates and no corresponding increase in accretive spot opportunities The high end of our outlook assumes an increase in our gross profit per load and improvement in brokerage gross margin. the high end of our outlook assumes an increase in our gross profit per load and improvement in brokerage gross margin This would include accretive spot opportunities to offset the squeeze. this would include accretive spot opportunities to offset the squeeze To close, we continue to operate in a soft demand environment. to close we continue to operate in a soft demand environment On the supply side, continued enforcement of non-domiciled CDL restrictions and English language proficiency would result in a major structural change to the industry. While our brokerage gross margin is impacted in the near term, assuming enforcement continues, this could result in a sharper inflection when demand eventually recovers. Longer term, this could be a very positive development for large-scale brokerages like RXO, and it would strengthen safety, reduce theft, and fraud. Our actions over the last several years have improved RXO's cost structure, which will lead to higher earnings across market cycles. We have taken actions to remove over $125 million of cost. We announced more than $30 million of new cost initiatives today to enhance operational efficiency. We've improved brokerage productivity by 38% over the last two years. On the supply side, continued enforcement of non-domiciled CDL restrictions and English language proficiency would result in a major structural change to the industry. on the supply side continued enforcement of non-domiciled cdl restrictions and english language proficiency would result in a major structural change to the industry While our brokerage gross margin is impacted in the near term, assuming enforcement continues, this could result in a sharper inflection when demand eventually recovers. while our brokerage gross margin is impacted in the near term assuming enforcement continues this could result in a sharper inflection when demand eventually recovers Longer term, this could be a very positive development for large-scale brokerages like RXO, and it would strengthen safety, reduce theft, and fraud. longer term this could be a very positive development for large-scale brokerages like rxo and it would strengthen safety reduce theft and fraud Our actions over the last several years have improved RXO's cost structure, which will lead to higher earnings across market cycles. our actions over the last several years have improved rxo's cost structure which will lead to higher earnings across market cycles We have taken actions to remove over $125 million of cost. we have taken actions to remove over $125 million of cost We announced more than $30 million of new cost initiatives today to enhance operational efficiency. we announced more than $30 million of new cost initiatives today to enhance operational efficiency We've improved brokerage productivity by 38% over the last two years. we've improved brokerage productivity by 38% over the last two years Our brokerage cost per load has decreased by more than 20% since our spin, and we are committed to investing in technology, including AI, with a strong return on invested capital. More than ever, shippers want to do business with large-scale brokerages that have the resources, capital, and ability to invest throughout market cycles. With a continued focus on profitable growth, a more efficient cost structure, larger scale, and a cutting-edge technology platform, we are well-positioned to drive significant long-term earnings and free cash flow growth. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for Q&A. Our brokerage cost per load has decreased by more than 20% since our spin, and we are committed to investing in technology, including AI, with a strong return on invested capital. our brokerage cost per load has decreased by more than 20% since our spin and we are committed to investing in technology including ai with a strong return on invested capital More than ever, shippers want to do business with large-scale brokerages that have the resources, capital, and ability to invest throughout market cycles. more than ever shippers want to do business with large-scale brokerages that have the resources capital and ability to invest throughout market cycles With a continued focus on profitable growth, a more efficient cost structure, larger scale, and a cutting-edge technology platform, we are well-positioned to drive significant long-term earnings and free cash flow growth. with a continued focus on profitable growth a more efficient cost structure larger scale and a cutting-edge technology platform we are well-positioned to drive significant long-term earnings and free cash flow growth With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for Q&A. with that i'll turn it over to the operator for q&a
Speaker 2: Thank you very much. It is now time for our Q&A session. Our first question will come from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies. You may now begin. Thank you very much. thank you very much It is now time for our Q&A session. it is now time for our q&a session Our first question will come from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies. our first question will come from stephanie moore with jefferies You may now begin. you may now begin
Speaker 13: Hi, team. Good morning. I wanted to get a sense, I guess, just on the underlying market dynamics and specifically the supply environment, which you've touched on here, but there's a lot of debate on whether these federal enforcement actions will be enough to shift the supply-demand balance. The first question is, do you think the recent supply exits are sustainable and enough to structurally reduce market supply? The second, if this is, in fact, the final squeeze that we would expect to see at the bottom of the cycle, if demand doesn't materialize near term, what actions can RXO take just to manage gross profit per load for, say, the next couple of quarters? Thanks. Hi, team. hi team Good morning. good morning I wanted to get a sense, I guess, just on the underlying market dynamics and specifically the supply environment, which you've touched on here, but there's a lot of debate on whether these federal enforcement actions will be enough to shift the supply-demand balance. i wanted to get a sense i guess just on the underlying market dynamics and specifically the supply environment which you've touched on here but there's a lot of debate on whether these federal enforcement actions will be enough to shift the supply-demand balance The first question is, do you think the recent supply exits are sustainable and enough to structurally reduce market supply? the first question is do you think the recent supply exits are sustainable and enough to structurally reduce market supply The second, if this is, in fact, the final squeeze that we would expect to see at the bottom of the cycle, if demand doesn't materialize near term, what actions can RXO take just to manage gross profit per load for, say, the next couple of quarters? the second if this is in fact the final squeeze that we would expect to see at the bottom of the cycle if demand doesn't materialize near term what actions can rxo take just to manage gross profit per load for say the next couple of quarters Thanks. thanks
Speaker 5: Hey, Stephanie. Good morning, it's Drew. I'll take the first part on the reducing capacity, and Jared will take the second part of your question on the gross margin dollars and gross profit per load through a quarter. When you look at what's going on on the supply side, as I said in my prepared commentary, I think this is the biggest structural change potentially in transportation. Compare it to something like ELDs. When ELDs were enforced, drivers had a choice of whether or not they were going to invest into their equipment and continue to haul. At this point, they do not have a choice. They are being pulled off the road if they are non-domiciled drivers or if the English language proficiency does not meet the requirements. I think it's a much bigger change than anything that has happened in the industry in the past. Hey, Stephanie. hey stephanie Good morning, it's Drew. good morning it's drew I'll take the first part on the reducing capacity, and Jared will take the second part of your question on the gross margin dollars and gross profit per load through a quarter. i'll take the first part on the reducing capacity and jared will take the second part of your question on the gross margin dollars and gross profit per load through a quarter When you look at what's going on on the supply side, as I said in my prepared commentary, I think this is the biggest structural change potentially in transportation. when you look at what's going on on the supply side as i said in my prepared commentary i think this is the biggest structural change potentially in transportation Compare it to something like ELDs. compare it to something like elds When ELDs were enforced, drivers had a choice of whether or not they were going to invest into their equipment and continue to haul. when elds were enforced drivers had a choice of whether or not they were going to invest into their equipment and continue to haul At this point, they do not have a choice. They are being pulled off the road if they are non-domiciled drivers or if the English language proficiency does not meet the requirements. at this point they do not have a choice. they are being pulled off the road if they are non-domiciled drivers or if the english language proficiency does not meet the requirements I think it's a much bigger change than anything that has happened in the industry in the past. i think it's a much bigger change than anything that has happened in the industry in the past It is something that will take out capacity in a major way in large percentage points. The one thing that we still need is for demand to return overall. As demand returns, what that does is it creates a much sharper inflection as the market comes back. It is something that will take out capacity in a major way in large percentage points. it is something that will take out capacity in a major way in large percentage points The one thing that we still need is for demand to return overall. the one thing that we still need is for demand to return overall As demand returns, what that does is it creates a much sharper inflection as the market comes back. as demand returns what that does is it creates a much sharper inflection as the market comes back
Speaker 10: Stephanie, on your second part of the question in terms of if this is the final squeeze, but demand does not recover, what actions can we do? I would point to the $30 million of new cost initiatives that we announced this morning, more than $30 million, where you will see a partial impact here in the fourth quarter. We continue to streamline the cost structure of the business, and we see significant opportunities as it relates to improving that cost structure longer term. As you think about additionally heading into next year, and Drew touched on this in the opening remarks, our cost of purchase transportation benefits as carrier reps continue to gain incremental efficiencies on RXO Connect and Freight Optimizer. The ability to go ahead and become more productive and benefit from a PT standpoint, I think, are very real. Stephanie, on your second part of the question in terms of if this is the final squeeze, but demand does not recover, what actions can we do? stephanie on your second part of the question in terms of if this is the final squeeze but demand does not recover what actions can we do I would point to the $30 million of new cost initiatives that we announced this morning, more than $30 million, where you will see a partial impact here in the fourth quarter. i would point to the $30 million of new cost initiatives that we announced this morning more than $30 million where you will see a partial impact here in the fourth quarter We continue to streamline the cost structure of the business, and we see significant opportunities as it relates to improving that cost structure longer term. we continue to streamline the cost structure of the business and we see significant opportunities as it relates to improving that cost structure longer term As you think about additionally heading into next year, and Drew touched on this in the opening remarks, our cost of purchase transportation benefits as carrier reps continue to gain incremental efficiencies on RXO Connect and Freight Optimizer. as you think about additionally heading into next year and drew touched on this in the opening remarks our cost of purchase transportation benefits as carrier reps continue to gain incremental efficiencies on rxo connect and freight optimizer The ability to go ahead and become more productive and benefit from a PT standpoint, I think, are very real. the ability to go ahead and become more productive and benefit from a pt standpoint i think are very real The last thing I'd close with is, I think Jamie touched on this. Ultimately, we are seeing lower interest rates and some benefits associated with the recent bills that were passed through Congress as it relates to potential investments in the U.S. as well. As you think about what this is setting up for when supply eventually continues to normalize combined with a demand inflection, it could be pretty strong on the other side, but enforcement does need to sustain. The last thing I'd close with is, I think Jamie touched on this. the last thing i'd close with is i think jamie touched on this Ultimately, we are seeing lower interest rates and some benefits associated with the recent bills that were passed through Congress as it relates to potential investments in the U.S. as well. ultimately we are seeing lower interest rates and some benefits associated with the recent bills that were passed through congress as it relates to potential investments in the u.s as well As you think about what this is setting up for when supply eventually continues to normalize combined with a demand inflection, it could be pretty strong on the other side, but enforcement does need to sustain. as you think about what this is setting up for when supply eventually continues to normalize combined with a demand inflection it could be pretty strong on the other side but enforcement does need to sustain
Speaker 13: Great. Thank you. I'll pass it on. Great. great Thank you. thank you I'll pass it on. i'll pass it on
Speaker 2: Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. You may now begin. Thank you very much. thank you very much Our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays. our next question comes from brandon oglenski with barclays You may now begin. you may now begin
Speaker 8: Hey, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking the question. Drew, this is going to come off a little critical, but I think it's probably for the betterment of everyone on the call. I mean, let's take it at face value. Your Adjusted EBITDA guide here is down about 40% at the midpoint year on year, and that's a year in the Coyote. We really thought Coyote was going to be transformative, a pretty big acquisition for a company of your size. I guess looking back, are there things that you maybe wouldn't have done? I mean, maybe to exemplify it, I think the last couple of years you guys have said 1Q is usually a lot weaker than 4Q. Is that what we're to infer here? If that's the case, I mean, I guess investors are probably going to look for more tangible actions here on earnings. Hey, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking the question. hey good morning everyone and thanks for taking the question Drew, this is going to come off a little critical, but I think it's probably for the betterment of everyone on the call. drew this is going to come off a little critical but i think it's probably for the betterment of everyone on the call I mean, let's take it at face value. i mean let's take it at face value Your Adjusted EBITDA guide here is down about 40% at the midpoint year on year, and that's a year in the Coyote. your adjusted ebitda guide here is down about 40% at the midpoint year on year and that's a year in the coyote We really thought Coyote was going to be transformative, a pretty big acquisition for a company of your size. we really thought coyote was going to be transformative a pretty big acquisition for a company of your size I guess looking back, are there things that you maybe wouldn't have done? i guess looking back are there things that you maybe wouldn't have done I mean, maybe to exemplify it, I think the last couple of years you guys have said 1Q is usually a lot weaker than 4Q. i mean maybe to exemplify it i think the last couple of years you guys have said 1q is usually a lot weaker than 4q Is that what we're to infer here? is that what we're to infer here If that's the case, I mean, I guess investors are probably going to look for more tangible actions here on earnings. if that's the case i mean i guess investors are probably going to look for more tangible actions here on earnings
Speaker 5: Yeah, Brandon, good morning. Thanks for the question. If you look back at the Coyote acquisition, on people, customers, and technology, we have done extremely well. The financial results are not where they need to be. The biggest miss off of that was whenever you went into the 2025 market, we made a decision on pricing, and we took price up off of that. I made the wrong call on that one. That is something that has impacted overall volumes. If you go back and you look at our history, we've outgrown the market for several times. I look forward to us getting back to the days of where we are the market leader and we're the transportation leader from a growth standpoint of taking market share. Clearly, 2025 is not where we want it to be overall. As you go from 4Q to1Q. Yeah, Brandon, good morning. yeah brandon good morning Thanks for the question. thanks for the question If you look back at the Coyote acquisition, on people, customers, and technology, we have done extremely well. if you look back at the coyote acquisition on people customers and technology we have done extremely well The financial results are not where they need to be. the financial results are not where they need to be The biggest miss off of that was whenever you went into the 2025 market, we made a decision on pricing, and we took price up off of that. the biggest miss off of that was whenever you went into the 2025 market we made a decision on pricing and we took price up off of that I made the wrong call on that one. i made the wrong call on that one That is something that has impacted overall volumes. that is something that has impacted overall volumes If you go back and you look at our history, we've outgrown the market for several times. if you go back and you look at our history we've outgrown the market for several times I look forward to us getting back to the days of where we are the market leader and we're the transportation leader from a growth standpoint of taking market share. i look forward to us getting back to the days of where we are the market leader and we're the transportation leader from a growth standpoint of taking market share Clearly, 2025 is not where we want it to be overall. clearly 2025 is not where we want it to be overall As you go from 4Q to 1Q. as you go from 4q to 1q First, I would say. Let's start with the third quarter. Typically, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, you see brokerage and last mile go up from an EBITDA perspective. That is not what you're seeing this year. The headwind going from 4Q to 1Q is not the same as what it typically would be. We also have the cost actions that we have taken that will be impacted from 4Q to 1Q. I do not think it's an apples to apples. Demand is still an unknown as we go into Q1, and are we still getting squeezed as we go into Q1? That's unknown. Ultimately, what is happening in the business right now is setting up for a very, very good thing. First, I would say. first i would say Let's start with the third quarter. let's start with the third quarter Typically, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, you see brokerage and last mile go up from an EBITDA perspective. typically from the third quarter to the fourth quarter you see brokerage and last mile go up from an ebitda perspective That is not what you're seeing this year. that is not what you're seeing this year The headwind going from 4Q to 1Q is not the same as what it typically would be. the headwind going from 4q to 1q is not the same as what it typically would be We also have the cost actions that we have taken that will be impacted from 4Q to 1Q. we also have the cost actions that we have taken that will be impacted from 4q to 1q I do not think it's an apples to apples. i do not think it's an apples to apples Demand is still an unknown as we go into Q1, and are we still getting squeezed as we go into Q1? demand is still an unknown as we go into q1 and are we still getting squeezed as we go into q1 That's unknown. that's unknown Ultimately, what is happening in the business right now is setting up for a very, very good thing. ultimately what is happening in the business right now is setting up for a very very good thing
Speaker 8: I appreciate that, Drew. Jamie, can you talk to your adjusted leverage calc that I think speaks to some of your covenants? Is that going to be challenged just given the earnings outlook here into the fourth quarter, especially as you move forward? I appreciate that, Drew. i appreciate that drew Jamie, can you talk to your adjusted leverage calc that I think speaks to some of your covenants? jamie can you talk to your adjusted leverage calc that i think speaks to some of your covenants Is that going to be challenged just given the earnings outlook here into the fourth quarter, especially as you move forward? is that going to be challenged just given the earnings outlook here into the fourth quarter especially as you move forward
Speaker 11: Yeah, thanks. Yeah, so we ended the quarter at leverage of a net 2.3. If you look forward to the midpoint of our range at end of Q4, say 20-30, at 25, you'll be at about 2.8. Our covenant is 4.5, so we've got a lot of headroom. We have a very strong balance sheet. We've got access to several hundreds of millions of dollars of capital. So we're not concerned about that. One thing I would point out, as Drew said, we had a strong cash flow quarter, 56% conversion, added cash to the balance sheet. As we look forward to the fourth quarter, we will have the semi-annual bond payment, which is normally due in Q4, which will make that. We will use some cash in the fourth quarter. As you look at 25, holistically, one thing really important to point out. Yeah, thanks. yeah thanks Yeah, so we ended the quarter at leverage of a net 2.3. yeah so we ended the quarter at leverage of a net 2.3 If you look forward to the midpoint of our range at end of Q4, say 20-30, at 25, you'll be at about 2.8. if you look forward to the midpoint of our range at end of q4 say 20-30 at 25 you'll be at about 2.8 Our covenant is 4.5, so we've got a lot of headroom. our covenant is 4.5 so we've got a lot of headroom We have a very strong balance sheet. we have a very strong balance sheet We've got access to several hundreds of millions of dollars of capital. we've got access to several hundreds of millions of dollars of capital So we're not concerned about that. so we're not concerned about that One thing I would point out, as Drew said, we had a strong cash flow quarter, 56% conversion, added cash to the balance sheet. one thing i would point out as drew said we had a strong cash flow quarter 56% conversion added cash to the balance sheet As we look forward to the fourth quarter, we will have the semi-annual bond payment, which is normally due in Q4, which will make that. as we look forward to the fourth quarter we will have the semi-annual bond payment which is normally due in q4 which will make that We will use some cash in the fourth quarter. we will use some cash in the fourth quarter As you look at 25, holistically, one thing really important to point out. as you look at 25 holistically one thing really important to point out There's about $65 or $70 million of cash outflows in 2025 that will not reoccur in 2026. Three drivers. Number one, in the first quarter, we had $25 million of cash usage to finish paying for transaction fees related to the Coyote acquisition that happened in 2024. It was purely timing. Secondly, our total spend on restructuring and integration will go down approximately $30 million year-over-year. Third, our CapEx will go down $10-$15 million. If you add all those together, we've really got $65 or $70 million of cash outflow in 2025 that will not reoccur. If you put that in context of the 2025 midpoint of the range for the full year, that means we would be producing $20-$25 million of free cash flow in 2025. There's about $65 or $70 million of cash outflows in 2025 that will not reoccur in 2026. there's about $65 or $70 million of cash outflows in 2025 that will not reoccur in 2026 Three drivers. three drivers Number one, in the first quarter, we had $25 million of cash usage to finish paying for transaction fees related to the Coyote acquisition that happened in 2024. number one in the first quarter we had $25 million of cash usage to finish paying for transaction fees related to the coyote acquisition that happened in 2024 it It was purely timing. it was purely timing Secondly, our total spend on restructuring and integration will go down approximately $30 million year- over- year. secondly our total spend on restructuring and integration will go down approximately $30 million year- over- year Third, our CapEx will go down $10-$15 million. third our capex will go down $10-$15 million If you add all those together, we've really got $65 or $70 million of cash outflow in 2025 that will not reoccur. if you add all those together we've really got $65 or $70 million of cash outflow in 2025 that will not reoccur If you put that in context of the 2025 midpoint of the range for the full year, that means we would be producing $20-$25 million of free cash flow in 2025. if you put that in context of the 2025 midpoint of the range for the full year that means we would be producing $20-$25 million of free cash flow in 2025 If you think about that at the bottom of the cycle, very strong. It really sets up nicely as the cycle improves. That number will go up. All that taken together, we have a very strong cash flow business. We have a very strong balance sheet. We always watch the balance sheet closely, but it's not something that we're overly concerned about right now, but we do pay close attention as you'd expect us to. If you think about that at the bottom of the cycle, very strong. if you think about that at the bottom of the cycle very strong It really sets up nicely as the cycle improves. it really sets up nicely as the cycle improves That number will go up. that number will go up All that taken together, we have a very strong cash flow business. all that taken together we have a very strong cash flow business We have a very strong balance sheet. we have a very strong balance sheet We always watch the balance sheet closely, but it's not something that we're overly concerned about right now, but we do pay close attention as you'd expect us to. we always watch the balance sheet closely but it's not something that we're overly concerned about right now but we do pay close attention as you'd expect us to
Speaker 8: All right. Thank you, Jamie. Thanks, Drew. All right. all right Thank you, Jamie. thank you jamie Thanks, Drew. thanks drew
Speaker 2: Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Ravi Shankar with Morgan Stanley. You may now begin. Thank you very much. thank you very much Our next question comes from Ravi Shankar with Morgan Stanley. our next question comes from ravi shankar with morgan stanley You may now begin. you may now begin
Speaker 6: Great. Thanks. Morning, guys. There is a bit of an AI arms race out there in the brokerage space. It is all about how many agentic AI bots you have and how many press releases you put out. You said that your customers are telling you that you have the best and easiest tech out there. Can you just unpack for us the process of going out there and selling your tech platform to your customers? What are they looking for? How do you drive conversion? Kind of how do you differentiate yourself with what else is out there from a tech world? Sometimes it may be hard to see for us in our seat. Great. great Thanks. thanks Morning, guys. morning guys There is a bit of an AI arms race out there in the brokerage space. It is all about how many agentic AI bots you have and how many press releases you put out. there is a bit of an ai arms race out there in the brokerage space. it is all about how many agentic ai bots you have and how many press releases you put out You said that your customers are telling you that you have the best and easiest tech out there. you said that your customers are telling you that you have the best and easiest tech out there Can you just unpack for us the process of going out there and selling your tech platform to your customers? can you just unpack for us the process of going out there and selling your tech platform to your customers What are they looking for? what are they looking for How do you drive conversion? how do you drive conversion Kind of how do you differentiate yourself with what else is out there from a tech world? kind of how do you differentiate yourself with what else is out there from a tech world Sometimes it may be hard to see for us in our seat. sometimes it may be hard to see for us in our seat
Speaker 5: Yeah. Ravi, one, appreciate the question. The only thing I would level set on is it's not about press releases for us. It's about results for employees. It's about results for customers. It's about results for carriers. We are hitting an inflection point with our AI investments that we have been making. Not only have we been running an integration, we have been investing in AI, and we've been investing in it heavily. When you look on the ability of what we're able to do on the pricing side, it is something, while we had a very strong pricing algorithm that's allowed us to outperform the market from a margin perspective for a decade plus, it is getting better. When you look at the way that we are communicating with carriers, it is changing, and it is allowing our reps to spend more time focusing on solutions. Yeah. yeah Ravi, one, appreciate the question. ravi one appreciate the question The only thing I would level set on is it's not about press releases for us. the only thing i would level set on is it's not about press releases for us It's about results for employees. it's about results for employees It's about results for customers. it's about results for customers It's about results for carriers. it's about results for carriers We are hitting an inflection point with our AI investments that we have been making. we are hitting an inflection point with our ai investments that we have been making Not only have we been running an integration, we have been investing in AI, and we've been investing in it heavily. not only have we been running an integration we have been investing in ai and we've been investing in it heavily When you look on the ability of what we're able to do on the pricing side, it is something, while we had a very strong pricing algorithm that's allowed us to outperform the market from a margin perspective for a decade plus, it is getting better. when you look on the ability of what we're able to do on the pricing side it is something while we had a very strong pricing algorithm that's allowed us to outperform the market from a margin perspective for a decade plus it is getting better When you look at the way that we are communicating with carriers, it is changing, and it is allowing our reps to spend more time focusing on solutions. when you look at the way that we are communicating with carriers it is changing and it is allowing our reps to spend more time focusing on solutions The last thing is, even if you look at our last mile business, we've done things like whenever you're doing an installation versus a person going in there and getting a photo and checking it, we've been able to actually do that with an AI bot that is checking everything from an installation standpoint, which is critical to our customers and consumers and how that process unfolds. For us, very excited about hitting an inflection point with AI and what it will actually mean from an operating margin perspective to the business. I look forward to hosting you next week and letting you actually see it on the floor of how it impacts carrier reps' lives, how it impacts customers, and how we're interacting with them so that you can see it live and in person. The last thing is, even if you look at our last mile business, we've done things like whenever you're doing an installation versus a person going in there and getting a photo and checking it, we've been able to actually do that with an AI bot that is checking everything from an installation standpoint, which is critical to our customers and consumers and how that process unfolds. the last thing is even if you look at our last mile business we've done things like whenever you're doing an installation versus a person going in there and getting a photo and checking it we've been able to actually do that with an ai bot that is checking everything from an installation standpoint which is critical to our customers and consumers and how that process unfolds For us, very excited about hitting an inflection point with AI and what it will actually mean from an operating margin perspective to the business. for us very excited about hitting an inflection point with ai and what it will actually mean from an operating margin perspective to the business I look forward to hosting you next week and letting you actually see it on the floor of how it impacts carrier reps' lives, how it impacts customers, and how we're interacting with them so that you can see it live and in person. i look forward to hosting you next week and letting you actually see it on the floor of how it impacts carrier reps' lives how it impacts customers and how we're interacting with them so that you can see it live and in person
Speaker 6: Great. Looking forward to that as well. Maybe a super quick follow-up. Your 4Q guidance is predicated on the current demand-supply equation holding, right? If for some reason the supply side, other enforcement drops off or supply side gets looser, your 4Q gross margin will be better than guided. Great. great Looking forward to that as well. looking forward to that as well Maybe a super quick follow-up. maybe a super quick follow-up Your 4Q guidance is predicated on the current demand-supply equation holding, right? your 4q guidance is predicated on the current demand-supply equation holding right If for some reason the supply side, other enforcement drops off or supply side gets looser, your 4Q gross margin will be better than guided. if for some reason the supply side other enforcement drops off or supply side gets looser your 4q gross margin will be better than guided
Speaker 10: Ravi, as you think about the range that we provided for Q4, $20-$30 million of adjusted EBITDA, the midpoint assumes that current market conditions in terms of the intensification that occurred in the month of October with respect to market tightness, given the supply dynamics that we talked about, that sustains throughout the rest of the quarter. The low end assumes that the market further tightens in terms of that squeeze impact without a corresponding increase in spot opportunities. That environment would result at the low end. Ravi, as you think about the range that we provided for Q4, $20-$30 million of adjusted EBITDA, the midpoint assumes that current market conditions in terms of the intensification that occurred in the month of October with respect to market tightness, given the supply dynamics that we talked about, that sustains throughout the rest of the quarter. ravi as you think about the range that we provided for q4 $20-$30 million of adjusted ebitda the midpoint assumes that current market conditions in terms of the intensification that occurred in the month of october with respect to market tightness given the supply dynamics that we talked about that sustains throughout the rest of the quarter The low end assumes that the market further tightens in terms of that squeeze impact without a corresponding increase in spot opportunities. the low end assumes that the market further tightens in terms of that squeeze impact without a corresponding increase in spot opportunities That environment would result at the low end. that environment would result at the low end For the high end, to your point, as you think about either the market tightening to the point where it results in some pressure in waterfall routing guides and some spot opportunities, and/or if there is an easing in buy rates that would allow gross profit per load to improve from current levels to get to the high end of our guide for Q4. For the high end, to your point, as you think about either the market tightening to the point where it results in some pressure in waterfall routing guides and some spot opportunities, and/or if there is an easing in buy rates that would allow gross profit per load to improve from current levels to get to the high end of our guide for Q4. for the high end to your point as you think about either the market tightening to the point where it results in some pressure in waterfall routing guides and some spot opportunities and/or if there is an easing in buy rates that would allow gross profit per load to improve from current levels to get to the high end of our guide for q4
Speaker 6: Great. Thanks, Jared. Great. great Thanks, Jared. thanks jared
Speaker 2: Thank you. Our next question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Wells Fargo. You may now begin. Thank you. thank you Our next question comes from Chris Wetherbee with Wells Fargo. our next question comes from chris wetherbee with wells fargo You may now begin. you may now begin
Speaker 3: Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. I guess I want to ask a question about operating expenses and your ability to maybe sort of rein those in a little bit as you go forward in this weaker market. Maybe you can talk a little bit about the potential opportunities you have. It looks like if I just sort of zone in on direct OpEx and labor expenses, those have been relatively flat in this market over the course of the last few quarters. Is there work that you can do there to try to adapt to what has been obviously a more challenging outlook? Hey, thanks. hey thanks Good morning, guys. good morning guys I guess I want to ask a question about operating expenses and your ability to maybe sort of rein those in a little bit as you go forward in this weaker market. i guess i want to ask a question about operating expenses and your ability to maybe sort of rein those in a little bit as you go forward in this weaker market Maybe you can talk a little bit about the potential opportunities you have. maybe you can talk a little bit about the potential opportunities you have It looks like if I just sort of zone in on direct OpEx and labor expenses, those have been relatively flat in this market over the course of the last few quarters. it looks like if i just sort of zone in on direct opex and labor expenses those have been relatively flat in this market over the course of the last few quarters Is there work that you can do there to try to adapt to what has been obviously a more challenging outlook? is there work that you can do there to try to adapt to what has been obviously a more challenging outlook
Speaker 11: Yeah. This is Jamie. We've taken a lot of cost actions since then, $155 million in total, including the synergies we've gotten from the acquisition. We're constantly looking at our expenses. If you look at our P&L, a lot of the direct OpEx that you see in the P&L relates to our last mile and our managed transportation business. SG&A shows up in the P&L across all the business lines. There's still plenty of actions that we can take. We've talked about automation. We've talked about process improvement. One of the things that we're constantly working on, Drew mentioned in his remarks, is footprint. How do we consolidate footprint so we can give the same level of high customer service in fewer square feet of space and fewer facilities? Those are the type of things we're constantly working on. Yeah. yeah This is Jamie. this is jamie We've taken a lot of cost actions since then, $155 million in total, including the synergies we've gotten from the acquisition. we've taken a lot of cost actions since then $155 million in total including the synergies we've gotten from the acquisition We're constantly looking at our expenses. we're constantly looking at our expenses If you look at our P&L, a lot of the direct OpEx that you see in the P&L relates to our last mile and our managed transportation business. if you look at our p&l a lot of the direct opex that you see in the p&l relates to our last mile and our managed transportation business SG&A shows up in the P&L across all the business lines. sg&a shows up in the p&l across all the business lines There's still plenty of actions that we can take. there's still plenty of actions that we can take We've talked about automation. we've talked about automation We've talked about process improvement. we've talked about process improvement One of the things that we're constantly working on, Drew mentioned in his remarks, is footprint. one of the things that we're constantly working on drew mentioned in his remarks, is footprint How do we consolidate footprint so we can give the same level of high customer service in fewer square feet of space and fewer facilities? how do we consolidate footprint so we can give the same level of high customer service in fewer square feet of space and fewer facilities Those are the type of things we're constantly working on. those are the type of things we're constantly working on Yes, there is more that we can do. And we're constantly working on those type activities. You can see it with the $30 million that we announced today. I mean, that's a constant process that we're going through. Yes, there is more that we can do. yes there is more that we can do And we're constantly working on those type activities. and we're constantly working on those type activities You can see it with the $30 million that we announced today. you can see it with the $30 million that we announced today I mean, that's a constant process that we're going through. i mean that's a constant process that we're going through
Speaker 3: Okay. That's helpful. I guess maybe, Drew, if we could sort of zoom out a little bit and try to get a sense of maybe how we come out of this dynamic that we're in right now. I don't think we typically see the cycles turn simply driven by the supply coming out. It seems like that's happening without any demand, I guess. Maybe help us a little bit as you think about the next couple of quarters as you guys are planning for. The sort of demand environment. What do you see out there? You obviously need demand. Where do you think it comes from? Okay. okay That's helpful. that's helpful I guess maybe, Drew, if we could sort of zoom out a little bit and try to get a sense of maybe how we come out of this dynamic that we're in right now. i guess maybe drew if we could sort of zoom out a little bit and try to get a sense of maybe how we come out of this dynamic that we're in right now I don't think we typically see the cycles turn simply driven by the supply coming out. i don't think we typically see the cycles turn simply driven by the supply coming out It seems like that's happening without any demand, I guess. it seems like that's happening without any demand i guess Maybe help us a little bit as you think about the next couple of quarters as you guys are planning for. maybe help us a little bit as you think about the next couple of quarters as you guys are planning for The sort of demand environment. the sort of demand environment What do you see out there? what do you see out there You obviously need demand. you obviously need demand Where do you think it comes from? where do you think it comes from
Speaker 5: Yeah. I think, Chris, there's a lot of things that we're watching on the demand, as Jamie alluded to in his prepared comments. We're watching what happens on the interest rates. We're watching what is happening in the homes. We're paying very close attention on the automotive side. As you know, in automotive, there is the managed expedite portion, and that's when everything breaks down and you have to get something to a plant to avoid shutdown. That's a big piece of our business. When you look at what that piece of the business was during the peak, it was around 13% of our gross margin dollars in brokerage came from expedite loads. Right now, we're sitting at around 1% or 2%. To see where the business can go to getting back on track from that perspective. Yeah. yeah I think, Chris, there's a lot of things that we're watching on the demand, as Jamie alluded to in his prepared comments. i think chris there's a lot of things that we're watching on the demand as jamie alluded to in his prepared comments We're watching what happens on the interest rates. we're watching what happens on the interest rates We're watching what is happening in the homes. we're watching what is happening in the homes We're paying very close attention on the automotive side. we're paying very close attention on the automotive side As you know, in automotive, there is the managed expedite portion, and that's when everything breaks down and you have to get something to a plant to avoid shutdown. as you know in automotive there is the managed expedite portion and that's when everything breaks down and you have to get something to a plant to avoid shutdown That's a big piece of our business. that's a big piece of our business When you look at what that piece of the business was during the peak, it was around 13% of our gross margin dollars in brokerage came from expedite loads. when you look at what that piece of the business was during the peak it was around 13% of our gross margin dollars in brokerage came from expedite loads Right now, we're sitting at around 1% or 2%. right now we're sitting at around 1% or 2% To see where the business can go to getting back on track from that perspective. to see where the business can go to getting back on track from that perspective We've always had a big presence in retail and e-commerce, and we have a lot of great relationships there. From the Coyote acquisition, we gained a lot of exposure to food and beverage. One of the things that we've been really focused on on the sales side is expanding in the technology vertical and expanding in the high cargo value goods area. We have got a very good pipeline. We're seeing good wins in those areas and look forward to the results. The second part of your question, I think, was more on the market and what's going on. What I would say is this is not an episodic squeeze. This is not DOT checkpoint week. This is not produce season. This is not a weather impact. This is a structural change that is taking place in the industry if it persists. We've always had a big presence in retail and e-commerce, and we have a lot of great relationships there. we've always had a big presence in retail and e-commerce and we have a lot of great relationships there From the Coyote acquisition, we gained a lot of exposure to food and beverage. from the coyote acquisition we gained a lot of exposure to food and beverage One of the things that we've been really focused on on the sales side is expanding in the technology vertical and expanding in the high cargo value goods area. one of the things that we've been really focused on on the sales side is expanding in the technology vertical and expanding in the high cargo value goods area We have got a very good pipeline. we have got a very good pipeline We're seeing good wins in those areas and look forward to the results. we're seeing good wins in those areas and look forward to the results The second part of your question, I think, was more on the market and what's going on. the second part of your question i think was more on the market and what's going on What I would say is this is not an episodic squeeze. what i would say is this is not an episodic squeeze This is not DOT checkpoint week. this is not dot checkpoint week This is not produce season. this is not produce season This is not a weather impact. this is not a weather impact This is a structural change that is taking place in the industry if it persists. this is a structural change that is taking place in the industry if it persists Supply coming out is real. It is happening. On the other side of that, with the demand, that sets up extremely well for large carriers, specifically brokers, who have good relationships with their customers, who provide good service, can provide a comprehensive set of solutions, and have great technology. We check the box on every one of those. This is mechanical and part of what we go through at this point in the process, but we know what is on the other side of it. Supply coming out is real. supply coming out is real It is happening. it is happening On the other side of that, with the demand, that sets up extremely well for large carriers, specifically brokers, who have good relationships with their customers, who provide good service, can provide a comprehensive set of solutions, and have great technology. on the other side of that with the demand that sets up extremely well for large carriers specifically brokers who have good relationships with their customers who provide good service can provide a comprehensive set of solutions and have great technology We check the box on every one of those. we check the box on every one of those This is mechanical and part of what we go through at this point in the process, but we know what is on the other side of it. this is mechanical and part of what we go through at this point in the process but we know what is on the other side of it
Speaker 3: Are you willing to sort of venture a guess on what the capacity rationalization might look like in terms of % of the fleet? Are you willing to sort of venture a guess on what the capacity rationalization might look like in terms of % of the fleet? are you willing to sort of venture a guess on what the capacity rationalization might look like in terms of % of the fleet
Speaker 5: Chris, we're watching a lot of the same things that you're watching. I mean, if you take out the private fleets and the large carriers, there's numbers out there that it could be 15-20% of capacity. If that happens, that is a big change within the industry and a lot of capacity that would be exiting. Chris, we're watching a lot of the same things that you're watching. chris we're watching a lot of the same things that you're watching I mean, if you take out the private fleets and the large carriers, there's numbers out there that it could be 15-20% of capacity. i mean if you take out the private fleets and the large carriers there's numbers out there that it could be 15-20% of capacity If that happens, that is a big change within the industry and a lot of capacity that would be exiting. if that happens that is a big change within the industry and a lot of capacity that would be exiting
Speaker 3: Got it. Thank you very much. Appreciate it. Got it. got it Thank you very much. thank you very much Appreciate it. appreciate it
Speaker 2: Thank you. Our next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. You may now begin. Thank you. thank you Our next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America. our next question comes from ken hoexter with bank of america You may now begin. you may now begin
Speaker 9: Hey, good morning. Drew or Jared, I just want to understand kind of the messaging here for the fourth quarter. Is this just the squeeze of the spot price that shifted quickly? Are you seeing an acceleration in the demand falling away? It seems like such a more significant change for a fourth quarter outlook than we've heard from other carriers that have also reported within the past week. I just want to understand what you're seeing. Maybe that's a little different. Is the cost exposure unique to RXO in terms of two-thirds of the cost came from regions where the buy rates increased? Is that maybe something more particular to RXO than your peers, or is it the capacity tightening more in Texas and California? Any thoughts? I know it's a long question, but any thoughts on that would be helpful. Hey, good morning. hey good morning Drew or Jared, I just want to understand kind of the messaging here for the fourth quarter. drew or jared i just want to understand kind of the messaging here for the fourth quarter Is this just the squeeze of the spot price that shifted quickly? is this just the squeeze of the spot price that shifted quickly Are you seeing an acceleration in the demand falling away? are you seeing an acceleration in the demand falling away It seems like such a more significant change for a fourth quarter outlook than we've heard from other carriers that have also reported within the past week. it seems like such a more significant change for a fourth quarter outlook than we've heard from other carriers that have also reported within the past week I just want to understand what you're seeing. i just want to understand what you're seeing Maybe that's a little different. maybe that's a little different Is the cost exposure unique to RXO in terms of two-thirds of the cost came from regions where the buy rates increased? is the cost exposure unique to rxo in terms of two-thirds of the cost came from regions where the buy rates increased Is that maybe something more particular to RXO than your peers, or is it the capacity tightening more in Texas and California? is that maybe something more particular to rxo than your peers or is it the capacity tightening more in texas and california Any thoughts? any thoughts I know it's a long question, but any thoughts on that would be helpful. i know it's a long question but any thoughts on that would be helpful
Speaker 10: Thanks. Hey, Ken, it's Jared. When you think about the bridge from Q3 to Q4, typically, both brokerage and last mile are up sequentially from third quarter to fourth quarter. This year, we are assuming that they are both down sequentially. That is a function of both what you cited in terms of lower demand and higher PT costs. On the demand side, we are seeing lower demand across the business. We saw that play out throughout Q3, and we are expecting the same in the fourth quarter. I'd say specific also to last mile, we did see a drop-off, call it after the Labor Day timeframe, with respect to goods for big and bulky. Last mile is seasonally up into the fourth quarter, and we are expecting that to decline sequentially, given that decline in big and bulky demand. Thanks. thanks Hey, Ken, it's Jared. hey ken it's jared When you think about the bridge from Q3 to Q4, typically, both brokerage and last mile are up sequentially from third quarter to fourth quarter. when you think about the bridge from q3 to q4 typically both brokerage and last mile are up sequentially from third quarter to fourth quarter This year, we are assuming that they are both down sequentially. this year we are assuming that they are both down sequentially That is a function of both what you cited in terms of lower demand and higher PT costs. that is a function of both what you cited in terms of lower demand and higher pt costs On the demand side, we are seeing lower demand across the business. on the demand side we are seeing lower demand across the business We saw that play out throughout Q3, and we are expecting the same in the fourth quarter. we saw that play out throughout q3 and we are expecting the same in the fourth quarter I'd say specific also to last mile, we did see a drop-off, call it after the Labor Day timeframe, with respect to goods for big and bulky. i'd say specific also to last mile we did see a drop-off call it after the labor day timeframe with respect to goods for big and bulky Last mile is seasonally up into the fourth quarter, and we are expecting that to decline sequentially, given that decline in big and bulky demand. last mile is seasonally up into the fourth quarter and we are expecting that to decline sequentially given that decline in big and bulky demand With respect to the question as it relates to purchase transportation costs, right? So when you think about our business, to your point, we did see about two-thirds of states where we were moving goods from an outbound standpoint, our PT costs going higher. In the third quarter. I'd say it moved modestly higher in the month of September, but that acute tightening really did happen over the last four weeks. After the emergency order on non-domiciled CDLs came into effect at the end of September. We've seen that play out with gross profit per load and gross margin compression within the brokerage business in the month of October. With respect to the question as it relates to purchase transportation costs, right? with respect to the question as it relates to purchase transportation costs right So when you think about our business, to your point, we did see about two-thirds of states where we were moving goods from an outbound standpoint, our PT costs going higher. so when you think about our business to your point we did see about two-thirds of states where we were moving goods from an outbound standpoint our pt costs going higher In the third quarter. in the third quarter I'd say it moved modestly higher in the month of September, but that acute tightening really did happen over the last four weeks. i'd say it moved modestly higher in the month of september but that acute tightening really did happen over the last four weeks After the emergency order on non-domiciled CDLs came into effect at the end of September. after the emergency order on non-domiciled cdls came into effect at the end of september We've seen that play out with gross profit per load and gross margin compression within the brokerage business in the month of October. we've seen that play out with gross profit per load and gross margin compression within the brokerage business in the month of october What makes this interesting and unique to Drew's point, where this is very structural from our standpoint because this is not an episodic squeeze like we have seen over the last three years, where whether it is seasonality due to produce season or DOT checkpoint, this is a lot of capacity that is coming out of the market. Ultimately, it is happening at a point where we are having weaker demand trends. You do not have routing guide pressures to allow for accretive spot opportunities. That is really what is playing out here, Ken. What makes this interesting and unique to Drew's point, where this is very structural from our standpoint because this is not an episodic squeeze like we have seen over the last three years, where whether it is seasonality due to produce season or DOT checkpoint, this is a lot of capacity that is coming out of the market. what makes this interesting and unique to drew's point where this is very structural from our standpoint because this is not an episodic squeeze like we have seen over the last three years where whether it is seasonality due to produce season or dot checkpoint this is a lot of capacity that is coming out of the market Ultimately, it is happening at a point where we are having weaker demand trends. ultimately it is happening at a point where we are having weaker demand trends You do not have routing guide pressures to allow for accretive spot opportunities. you do not have routing guide pressures to allow for accretive spot opportunities That is really what is playing out here, Ken. that is really what is playing out here ken
Speaker 9: Just to clarify that, Jared, because again, I am just trying to compare it versus what we have heard from some peers, right? The lack of spot opportunities, but are you seeing that core demand fall faster? Just to clarify that, Jared, because again, I am just trying to compare it versus what we have heard from some peers, right? just to clarify that jared because again, i am just trying to compare it versus what we have heard from some peers right The lack of spot opportunities, but are you seeing that core demand fall faster? the lack of spot opportunities but are you seeing that core demand fall faster I'm just trying to differentiate kind of why we're seeing maybe some cost or some margin accretion at some relative peers versus the continued pressure. I get the cost side. I think you've made that quite clear in terms of the speed with which this is happening. Is anything also happening on the demand side? I'm just trying to differentiate kind of why we're seeing maybe some cost or some margin accretion at some relative peers versus the continued pressure. i'm just trying to differentiate kind of why we're seeing maybe some cost or some margin accretion at some relative peers versus the continued pressure I get the cost side. i get the cost side I think you've made that quite clear in terms of the speed with which this is happening. i think you've made that quite clear in terms of the speed with which this is happening Is anything also happening on the demand side? is anything also happening on the demand side
Speaker 10: Yes, demand has weakened. I would also, when you look at our mix, mix is very different across different businesses and different brokerages, right? For RXO, our contractual book of business, which was just north of 70% of our volume in the third quarter from a brokerage standpoint, really, if you think about largest shippers in North America, tier one enterprise-class shippers. Not as much SMB, right? One of the benefits associated with the acquisition of Coyote was we did get an SMB business, but ultimately, that's probably around 10% of total volume. The big bulk of our exposure really is large. Tier one enterprise-class shippers. I do think that mix is also important. Yes, demand has weakened. yes demand has weakened I would also, when you look at our mix, mix is very different across different businesses and different brokerages, right? i would also when you look at our mix mix is very different across different businesses and different brokerages right For RXO, our contractual book of business, which was just north of 70% of our volume in the third quarter from a brokerage standpoint, really, if you think about largest shippers in North America, tier one enterprise-class shippers. for rxo our contractual book of business which was just north of 70% of our volume in the third quarter from a brokerage standpoint really if you think about largest shippers in north america tier one enterprise-class shippers Not as much SMB, right? not as much smb right One of the benefits associated with the acquisition of Coyote was we did get an SMB business, but ultimately, that's probably around 10% of total volume. one of the benefits associated with the acquisition of coyote was we did get an smb business but ultimately that's probably around 10% of total volume The big bulk of our exposure really is large. the big bulk of our exposure really is large Tier one enterprise-class shippers. tier one enterprise-class shippers I do think that mix is also important. i do think that mix is also important I go back to the earlier question as it relates to automotive, which certainly has been a headwind for the business as well, as an example throughout the year, I suppose, with the managed expedite type rate. I would certainly highlight mix as a big difference. I go back to the earlier question as it relates to automotive, which certainly has been a headwind for the business as well, as an example throughout the year, I suppose, with the managed expedite type rate. i go back to the earlier question as it relates to automotive which certainly has been a headwind for the business as well as an example throughout the year i suppose with the managed expedite type rate I would certainly highlight mix as a big difference. i would certainly highlight mix as a big difference
Speaker 5: Ken, I would also, I'll expand on it a little bit. I think there's a lot of public data out there that shows what's going on with demand. If you look at the cash rate index, it shows that it is down 7%. If you want to dive specifically into truckload, FreightWave Sonar's got a product out there that shows it is down, sitting around 17% right now on the truckload side. I think it's not necessarily taking our word for it. It's looking at the public data out there available in the truckload market. Ken, I would also, I'll expand on it a little bit. ken i would also i'll expand on it a little bit I think there's a lot of public data out there that shows what's going on with demand. i think there's a lot of public data out there that shows what's going on with demand If you look at the cash rate index, it shows that it is down 7%. if you look at the cash rate index it shows that it is down 7% If you want to dive specifically into truckload, FreightWave Sonar's got a product out there that shows it is down, sitting around 17% right now on the truckload side. if you want to dive specifically into truckload freightwave sonar's got a product out there that shows it is down sitting around 17% right now on the truckload side I think it's not necessarily taking our word for it. i think it's not necessarily taking our word for it It's looking at the public data out there available in the truckload market. it's looking at the public data out there available in the truckload market
Speaker 9: Okay. Appreciate the time. Thanks, Chris. Okay. okay Appreciate the time. appreciate the time Thanks, Chris. thanks chris
Speaker 2: Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research. You may now begin. Thank you. thank you Our next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research. our next question comes from scott group with wolfe research You may now begin. you may now begin
Speaker 7: Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just sort of like a big picture, we're talking about a tightening market. At the same time, your truckload rev per load goes from up three to up one. Drew, you've been doing this a long time. Have you seen this before where the market tightens and your buy rates go up, but industry spot rates or sell rates don't move? I don't know that I've seen this before. Ultimately, I guess what I'm trying to understand is if a typical squeeze for your business is. Hey, thanks. hey thanks Good morning. good morning Just sort of like a big picture, we're talking about a tightening market. just sort of like a big picture we're talking about a tightening market At the same time, your truckload rev per load goes from up three to up one. at the same time your truckload rev per load goes from up three to up one Drew, you've been doing this a long time. drew you've been doing this a long time Have you seen this before where the market tightens and your buy rates go up, but industry spot rates or sell rates don't move? have you seen this before where the market tightens and your buy rates go up but industry spot rates or sell rates don't move I don't know that I've seen this before. i don't know that i've seen this before Ultimately, I guess what I'm trying to understand is if a typical squeeze for your business is. ultimately i guess what i'm trying to understand is if a typical squeeze for your business is A quarter or two, and then eventually you sort of benefit from it. Do you think this is a, if it's supply-driven, is it a longer squeeze this time, or do you think, hey, this dynamic of buy rates up and sell rates not moving can't last, and at some point, the sell rates are going to have to start moving pretty quickly? A quarter or two, and then eventually you sort of benefit from it. a quarter or two and then eventually you sort of benefit from it Do you think this is a, if it's supply-driven, is it a longer squeeze this time, or do you think, hey, this dynamic of buy rates up and sell rates not moving can't last, and at some point, the sell rates are going to have to start moving pretty quickly? do you think this is a if it's supply-driven is it a longer squeeze this time or do you think hey this dynamic of buy rates up and sell rates not moving can't last and at some point the sell rates are going to have to start moving pretty quickly
Speaker 5: Yeah, Scott, I think that everything that you just said points to it being a structural change that has happened in the industry because it is something that we all have not seen before and shaking out this way. As far as how long the squeeze is, yeah, I do not think it would be wise of me to venture a guess on how long the squeeze is because I do not think that anybody saw the upside and the downside of this cycle lasting five-plus years at this point. I do not know how long the squeeze will be, but yes, we are in the thick of it right now as something that impacts our margins. I'll tell you, if you go back and you look at the time of ELD, you actually saw our margins fall to 11.5% during that time. Yeah, Scott, I think that everything that you just said points to it being a structural change that has happened in the industry because it is something that we all have not seen before and shaking out this way. yeah scott i think that everything that you just said points to it being a structural change that has happened in the industry because it is something that we all have not seen before and shaking out this way As far as how long the squeeze is, yeah, I do not think it would be wise of me to venture a guess on how long the squeeze is because I do not think that anybody saw the upside and the downside of this cycle lasting five-plus years at this point. as far as how long the squeeze is yeah i do not think it would be wise of me to venture a guess on how long the squeeze is because i do not think that anybody saw the upside and the downside of this cycle lasting five-plus years at this point I do not know how long the squeeze will be, but yes, we are in the thick of it right now as something that impacts our margins. i do not know how long the squeeze will be but yes we are in the thick of it right now as something that impacts our margins I'll tell you, if you go back and you look at the time of ELD, you actually saw our margins fall to 11.5% during that time. i'll tell you if you go back and you look at the time of eld you actually saw our margins fall to 11.5% during that time Within two quarters, you saw more than it make up for that on the recovery side. Now, there was demand there. I think that demand is a key point. I do not think that the capacity coming out in this situation is the same as ELD. I think it is in a much bigger way because at ELD, you had a choice of if you were going to spend the money and invest in your equipment to meet federal mandates. This time, you do not have a choice. You are just coming off of the road. Within two quarters, you saw more than it make up for that on the recovery side. within two quarters you saw more than it make up for that on the recovery side Now, there was demand there. now there was demand there I think that demand is a key point. i think that demand is a key point I do not think that the capacity coming out in this situation is the same as ELD. i do not think that the capacity coming out in this situation is the same as eld I think it is in a much bigger way because at ELD, you had a choice of if you were going to spend the money and invest in your equipment to meet federal mandates. i think it is in a much bigger way because at eld you had a choice of if you were going to spend the money and invest in your equipment to meet federal mandates This time, you do not have a choice. You are just coming off of the road. this time you do not have a choice. you are just coming off of the road
Speaker 7: All that makes sense. Can I just ask one quick follow-up? I think you mentioned that buy rates have gone up like $0.06 or something. Is there any sensitivity, like every penny of buy rate equals how much of operating income or EBITDA? Any sort of sensitivity there? All that makes sense. all that makes sense Can I just ask one quick follow-up? can i just ask one quick follow-up I think you mentioned that buy rates have gone up like $0.06 or something. i think you mentioned that buy rates have gone up like $0.06 or something Is there any sensitivity, like every penny of buy rate equals how much of operating income or EBITDA? is there any sensitivity like every penny of buy rate equals how much of operating income or ebitda Any sort of sensitivity there? any sort of sensitivity there
Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, for us, Scott, the industry went up $0.06. We were much less than that. I think that goes to the benefit of the Coyote acquisition of being able to buy better than market. For us, in a quarter, every penny that it goes up is $2.5 million of EBITDA. Yeah. yeah I mean, for us, Scott, the industry went up $0.06. i mean for us scott the industry went up $0.06 We were much less than that. we were much less than that I think that goes to the benefit of the Coyote acquisition of being able to buy better than market. i think that goes to the benefit of the coyote acquisition of being able to buy better than market For us, in a quarter, every penny that it goes up is $2.5 million of EBITDA. for us in a quarter every penny that it goes up is $2.5 million of ebitda
Speaker 7: Okay. All right. Thank you. Okay. okay All right. all right Thank you. thank you
Speaker 2: Thank you. Our next question comes from Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs. You may now begin. Thank you. thank you Our next question comes from Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs. our next question comes from jordan alliger with goldman sachs You may now begin. you may now begin
Speaker 4: Yeah, just maybe just to follow on on thinking about the purchase transport and the squeeze. Obviously, there's decent squeeze going on. PT's going up. I mean, doesn't that read that as we get into the contract season, next cycle, which I presume starts in earnest in early next year or March or something, that we should see a significant increase in, or at least an increase in contract rates and the squeeze should be going away? Thanks. Yeah, just maybe just to follow on on thinking about the purchase transport and the squeeze. yeah just maybe just to follow on on thinking about the purchase transport and the squeeze Obviously, there's decent squeeze going on. obviously there's decent squeeze going on PT's going up. pt's going up I mean, doesn't that read that as we get into the contract season, next cycle, which I presume starts in earnest in early next year or March or something, that we should see a significant increase in, or at least an increase in contract rates and the squeeze should be going away? i mean doesn't that read that as we get into the contract season next cycle which i presume starts in earnest in early next year or march or something that we should see a significant increase in or at least an increase in contract rates and the squeeze should be going away Thanks. thanks
Speaker 5: Yeah. Good morning, Jordan. I think it'll still depend on what happens with overall demand. Bid season's underway right now. We're in the middle of some of our largest bids. Yesterday, in Charlotte, we had seven of our largest customers, and we spent a lot of time talking about our pricing strategy with them, talking about how we could draw synergies between the customers that were in the room from a capacity standpoint, talking about what was going on with the federal mandates. For us, we look at every customer as their own story as we go through a bid cycle. Are there the opportunity for rates to go up? Absolutely. I think some of it depends on what's going on in the market as that customer's bid is going on. Yeah. yeah Good morning, Jordan. good morning jordan I think it'll still depend on what happens with overall demand. i think it'll still depend on what happens with overall demand Bid season's underway right now. bid season's underway right now We're in the middle of some of our largest bids. we're in the middle of some of our largest bids Yesterday, in Charlotte, we had seven of our largest customers, and we spent a lot of time talking about our pricing strategy with them, talking about how we could draw synergies between the customers that were in the room from a capacity standpoint, talking about what was going on with the federal mandates. yesterday in charlotte we had seven of our largest customers and we spent a lot of time talking about our pricing strategy with them talking about how we could draw synergies between the customers that were in the room from a capacity standpoint talking about what was going on with the federal mandates For us, we look at every customer as their own story as we go through a bid cycle. for us we look at every customer as their own story as we go through a bid cycle Are there the opportunity for rates to go up? are there the opportunity for rates to go up Absolutely. absolutely I think some of it depends on what's going on in the market as that customer's bid is going on. i think some of it depends on what's going on in the market as that customer's bid is going on I'm not going to forecast on where rates are going to go for next year. What I will say is as routing guides start to break down, that's where spot loads come in at, and those are at a much higher revenue per load. I'm not going to forecast on where rates are going to go for next year. i'm not going to forecast on where rates are going to go for next year What I will say is as routing guides start to break down, that's where spot loads come in at, and those are at a much higher revenue per load. what i will say is as routing guides start to break down that's where spot loads come in at and those are at a much higher revenue per load
Speaker 4: I guess just as a quick follow-up, I mean, given what you're seeing in purchase transport, I mean, do you feel that the customers you're talking to are understanding that you're going to need to push rate up? I guess just as a quick follow-up, I mean, given what you're seeing in purchase transport, I mean, do you feel that the customers you're talking to are understanding that you're going to need to push rate up? i guess just as a quick follow-up i mean given what you're seeing in purchase transport i mean do you feel that the customers you're talking to are understanding that you're going to need to push rate up
Speaker 5: We have very close relationships with all of our customers. Every one of them is their own story. For us, it's about providing a solution for them and for us that works for both the short and the long term. Our customers are very well aware of what's going on in the market right now. We have very close relationships with all of our customers. we have very close relationships with all of our customers Every one of them is their own story. every one of them is their own story For us, it's about providing a solution for them and for us that works for both the short and the long term. for us it's about providing a solution for them and for us that works for both the short and the long term Our customers are very well aware of what's going on in the market right now. our customers are very well aware of what's going on in the market right now
Speaker 4: Okay. Thank you. Okay. okay Thank you. thank you
Speaker 2: Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Tom Wadewitz with UBS. You may now begin. Thank you very much. thank you very much Our next question comes from Tom Wadewitz with UBS. our next question comes from tom wadewitz with ubs You may now begin. you may now begin
Speaker 12: Yeah, good morning. I wanted to swing back a little bit to just kind of how we should view the run rate in Q4 and what that implies for 2026 or just broad brush how to think about 2026. If you kind of take midpoint of your EBITDA guide for Q4, add it up with the three you reported, you get $117 million for EBITDA base in 2025. If you kind of put seasonality on the $25 million Q4, it's probably well below $100 million. I guess I know you've got the $30 million of cost saves, you've got other initiatives, but I mean, do you think 2026 EBITDA is more closer to $100 million or closer to $150 million or just it seems like hard to know what's the right ballpark even to be in given Q4 is so tough. Yeah, good morning. yeah good morning I wanted to swing back a little bit to just kind of how we should view the run rate in Q4 and what that implies for 2026 or just broad brush how to think about 2026. i wanted to swing back a little bit to just kind of how we should view the run rate in q4 and what that implies for 2026 or just broad brush how to think about 2026 If you kind of take midpoint of your EBITDA guide for Q4, add it up with the three you reported, you get $117 million for EBITDA base in 2025. if you kind of take midpoint of your ebitda guide for q4 add it up with the three you reported you get $117 million for ebitda base in 2025 If you kind of put seasonality on the $25 million Q4, it's probably well below $100 million. if you kind of put seasonality on the $25 million q4 it's probably well below $100 million I guess I know you've got the $30 million of cost saves, you've got other initiatives, but I mean, do you think 2026 EBITDA is more closer to $100 million or closer to $150 million or just it seems like hard to know what's the right ballpark even to be in given Q4 is so tough. i guess i know you've got the $30 million of cost saves you've got other initiatives but i mean do you think 2026 ebitda is more closer to $100 million or closer to $150 million or just it seems like hard to know what's the right ballpark even to be in given q4 is so tough
Speaker 11: Yeah, hey, this is Jamie. As you know, we do one quarter at a time. As we think about 2026, as you know, there is a lot of unknowns. We are heading into next year. We have got the volume demand. Where does it go? We have got the cost of purchase trends. How long does the squeeze endure? How. Does it get a little worse? Does it get better? And when? You mentioned this. We do have a significant amount of cost that we have taken out of the business. Some piece of that is a run rate into 2026. We have got the purchase transportation opportunity. Drew talked about. 30-50 basis points to date. Much of that is showing up in the P&L as cost avoidance. That will translate. We will get more of that. We will get to the 100 basis points. Yeah, hey, this is Jamie. yeah hey this is jamie As you know, we do one quarter at a time. as you know we do one quarter at a time As we think about 2026, as you know, there is a lot of unknowns. We are heading into next year. We have got the volume demand. as we think about 2026 as you know, there is a lot of unknowns. we are heading into next year. we have got the volume demand Where does it go? We have got the cost of purchase trends. where does it go? we have got the cost of purchase trends How long does the squeeze endure? how long does the squeeze endure How. how Does it get a little worse? does it get a little worse Does it get better? does it get better And when? and when You mentioned this. you mentioned this We do have a significant amount of cost that we have taken out of the business. we do have a significant amount of cost that we have taken out of the business Some piece of that is a run rate into 2026. some piece of that is a run rate into 2026 We have got the purchase transportation opportunity. we have got the purchase transportation opportunity Drew talked about. 30-50 basis points to date. drew talked about 30-50 basis points to date Much of that is showing up in the P&L as cost avoidance. much of that is showing up in the p&l as cost avoidance That will translate. that will translate We will get more of that. we will get more of that We will get to the 100 basis points. we will get to the 100 basis points I do not think you can take kind of a Q4, project into a Q1 or a Q2 because, again, Q4 is sub-seasonal. We would expect both last mile and brokers to be up sequentially from Q3 to Q4. It is not. It is actually down. That being said, what that translates into a Q1 is not going to be normal. Also, as it relates to the rest of the year, and is this demand, as this market sets up, as Drew has talked about on the capacity side, when demand comes back, and it will come back, there are a lot of things going on out in the macro that demand will come back. When? We do not know for sure. When it does, we are set up very well to be a beneficiary of that. I do not think you can take kind of a Q4, project into a Q1 or a Q2 because, again, Q4 is sub-seasonal. i do not think you can take kind of a q4 project into a q1 or a q2 because again q4 is sub-seasonal We would expect both last mile and brokers to be up sequentially from Q3 to Q4. It is not. It is actually down. we would expect both last mile and brokers to be up sequentially from q3 to q4. it is not. it is actually down That being said, what that translates into a Q1 is not going to be normal. that being said what that translates into a q1 is not going to be normal Also, as it relates to the rest of the year, and is this demand, as this market sets up, as Drew has talked about on the capacity side, when demand comes back, and it will come back, there are a lot of things going on out in the macro that demand will come back. also as it relates to the rest of the year and is this demand as this market sets up as drew has talked about on the capacity side when demand comes back and it will come back there are a lot of things going on out in the macro that demand will come back When? when We do not know for sure. we do not know for sure When it does, we are set up very well to be a beneficiary of that. when it does we are set up very well to be a beneficiary of that
Speaker 5: Tom, I agree with everything that Jamie just said, but one thing that I would add is if you look at what's happened in the industry over the last seven, eight weeks, and the impact that that has had to financials, it's running in the negative way. It works the exact opposite whenever the market starts to turn on the positive way. This is an industry that turns very, very quickly. You have the opportunity, as the market recovers, to expand margins in a big way. Tom, I agree with everything that Jamie just said, but one thing that I would add is if you look at what's happened in the industry over the last seven, eight weeks, and the impact that that has had to financials, it's running in the negative way. tom i agree with everything that jamie just said but one thing that i would add is if you look at what's happened in the industry over the last seven eight weeks and the impact that that has had to financials it's running in the negative way It works the exact opposite whenever the market starts to turn on the positive way. it works the exact opposite whenever the market starts to turn on the positive way This is an industry that turns very, very quickly. this is an industry that turns very very quickly You have the opportunity, as the market recovers, to expand margins in a big way. you have the opportunity as the market recovers to expand margins in a big way
Speaker 12: Yeah. Okay. It seems like you could have a setup for a big improvement in second half 2026, right? That seems like a thing worth considering as well as a tough run rate coming in. I wanted to ask for a second question to follow up. How do you think about what's important on enforcement supply side? I mean, I think. I wonder if there's some avoidance of enforcement areas where the capacity that's questionable in the market understands where the enforcement is taking place, and then you avoid that. Part of the capacity does not leave the market, but kind of sits on the sidelines or maybe just avoids, or maybe given the way the interstates flow, they are across multiple states and you cannot avoid enforcement. I just wanted to get your sense on that because it seems like such a big question. Yeah. yeah Okay. okay It seems like you could have a setup for a big improvement in second half 2026, right? it seems like you could have a setup for a big improvement in second half 2026 right That seems like a thing worth considering as well as a tough run rate coming in. that seems like a thing worth considering as well as a tough run rate coming in I wanted to ask for a second question to follow up. i wanted to ask for a second question to follow up How do you think about what's important on enforcement supply side? how do you think about what's important on enforcement supply side I mean, I think. i mean i think I wonder if there's some avoidance of enforcement areas where the capacity that's questionable in the market understands where the enforcement is taking place, and then you avoid that. i wonder if there's some avoidance of enforcement areas where the capacity that's questionable in the market understands where the enforcement is taking place and then you avoid that Part of the capacity does not leave the market, but kind of sits on the sidelines or maybe just avoids, or maybe given the way the interstates flow, they are across multiple states and you cannot avoid enforcement. I just wanted to get your sense on that because it seems like such a big question. part of the capacity does not leave the market but kind of sits on the sidelines or maybe just avoids or maybe given the way the interstates flow, they are across multiple states and you cannot avoid enforcement. i just wanted to get your sense on that because it seems like such a big question The potential impact is so large, but just kind of hard to know if it all comes out or not. The potential impact is so large, but just kind of hard to know if it all comes out or not. the potential impact is so large but just kind of hard to know if it all comes out or not
Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, Tom, we're watching it extremely closely and it's something that we support. When you look at what this does for the industry, it makes it a safer industry. It eliminates fraud. It reduces theft. This is a positive thing for the industry. It also puts something front of mind for our customers. Customers are going to look at who they're doing business with. They're going to look to do business with large, financially stable companies that have provided them with great service. They provide them with solutions. They've got good technology that allows them to make better decisions as a customer. They're going to go back to the people who have delivered for them in the past. We think that we set up very, very well in that market. Yeah. yeah I mean, Tom, we're watching it extremely closely and it's something that we support. i mean tom we're watching it extremely closely and it's something that we support When you look at what this does for the industry, it makes it a safer industry. when you look at what this does for the industry it makes it a safer industry It eliminates fraud. it eliminates fraud It reduces theft. it reduces theft This is a positive thing for the industry. this is a positive thing for the industry It also puts something front of mind for our customers. it also puts something front of mind for our customers Customers are going to look at who they're doing business with. customers are going to look at who they're doing business with They're going to look to do business with large, financially stable companies that have provided them with great service. they're going to look to do business with large financially stable companies that have provided them with great service They provide them with solutions. they provide them with solutions They've got good technology that allows them to make better decisions as a customer. they've got good technology that allows them to make better decisions as a customer They're going to go back to the people who have delivered for them in the past. they're going to go back to the people who have delivered for them in the past We think that we set up very, very well in that market. we think that we set up very very well in that market
Speaker 12: Do you have any visibility on kind of avoidance, or is that hard to measure? From the carriers? Do you have any visibility on kind of avoidance, or is that hard to measure? do you have any visibility on kind of avoidance or is that hard to measure From the carriers? from the carriers
Speaker 11: Yeah. This is Jamie. I mean, personally, what I see going on with the enforcement and what I think what the industry sees going on right now is I don't think there's going to be, this is not a state-by-state enforcement issue. This is more of a federal enforcement issue. Regardless of where a carrier may be, I think they're subject to being taken off the road wherever. It will take some time, but we are seeing the impact of the capacity and it impacted it very quickly. I don't think we would say there's any one spot that folks can go run loads in that is not under risk of being caught. I think it'll be a continued enforcement. Yeah. yeah This is Jamie. this is jamie I mean, personally, what I see going on with the enforcement and what I think what the industry sees going on right now is I don't think there's going to be, this is not a state-by-state enforcement issue. i mean personally what i see going on with the enforcement and what i think what the industry sees going on right now is i don't think there's going to be this is not a state-by-state enforcement issue This is more of a federal enforcement issue. this is more of a federal enforcement issue Regardless of where a carrier may be, I think they're subject to being taken off the road wherever. regardless of where a carrier may be i think they're subject to being taken off the road wherever It will take some time, but we are seeing the impact of the capacity and it impacted it very quickly. it will take some time but we are seeing the impact of the capacity and it impacted it very quickly I don't think we would say there's any one spot that folks can go run loads in that is not under risk of being caught. i don't think we would say there's any one spot that folks can go run loads in that is not under risk of being caught I think it'll be a continued enforcement. i think it'll be a continued enforcement
Speaker 5: Tom, just remember, you only have to drive a few hundred miles in any direction to be on another state line. Tom, just remember, you only have to drive a few hundred miles in any direction to be on another state line. tom just remember you only have to drive a few hundred miles in any direction to be on another state line
Speaker 12: Yeah, right. That's where it seems like it's maybe tough to. Maybe some states are easier, but hard to avoid states that are enforcing pretty significantly. Okay. Great. Thanks for the time. Yeah, right. yeah right That's where it seems like it's maybe tough to. that's where it seems like it's maybe tough to Maybe some states are easier, but hard to avoid states that are enforcing pretty significantly. maybe some states are easier but hard to avoid states that are enforcing pretty significantly Okay. okay Great. great Thanks for the time. thanks for the time
Speaker 5: Thank you. Thank you. thank you
Speaker 2: Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners. You may now begin. Thank you. thank you Our next question comes from Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners. our next question comes from jeff kauffman with vertical research partners You may now begin. you may now begin
Speaker 1: Thank you very much. Good morning, everybody. Drew, question. I know nobody can predict how long this squeeze is going to go on. I guess kind of following Scott and Jordan's question a little bit, if things just stayed static where they are right now, where the market is. I know you talked about one to two quarters, two to three quarters. How long would it take you to price up to where this was not impacting the franchise anymore if it did not get worse from where it was? Thank you very much. thank you very much Good morning, everybody. good morning everybody Drew, question. drew question I know nobody can predict how long this squeeze is going to go on. i know nobody can predict how long this squeeze is going to go on I guess kind of following Scott and Jordan's question a little bit, if things just stayed static where they are right now, where the market is. i guess kind of following scott and jordan's question a little bit if things just stayed static where they are right now where the market is I know you talked about one to two quarters, two to three quarters. i know you talked about one to two quarters two to three quarters How long would it take you to price up to where this was not impacting the franchise anymore if it did not get worse from where it was? how long would it take you to price up to where this was not impacting the franchise anymore if it did not get worse from where it was
Speaker 5: Yeah. I mean, the biggest thing that we're watching right there is what happens on tender rejections. And if you look, even though demand is down significantly, tender rejections have gone up to over 6%. Right now, you are starting to see capacity push it to where it goes. It's not necessarily as much on the contract rates that you're watching right there. It's more what happens on the tender rejections whenever routing guides start to break. On the spot, with demand extremely depressed, you're starting to see pressure on tender rejections. That's mostly what I'm watching right now, Jeff. Yeah. yeah I mean, the biggest thing that we're watching right there is what happens on tender rejections. i mean the biggest thing that we're watching right there is what happens on tender rejections And if you look, even though demand is down significantly, tender rejections have gone up to over 6%. and if you look even though demand is down significantly tender rejections have gone up to over 6% Right now, you are starting to see capacity push it to where it goes. right now you are starting to see capacity push it to where it goes It's not necessarily as much on the contract rates that you're watching right there. it's not necessarily as much on the contract rates that you're watching right there It's more what happens on the tender rejections whenever routing guides start to break. it's more what happens on the tender rejections whenever routing guides start to break On the spot, with demand extremely depressed, you're starting to see pressure on tender rejections. on the spot with demand extremely depressed you're starting to see pressure on tender rejections That's mostly what I'm watching right now, Jeff. that's mostly what i'm watching right now jeff
Speaker 1: Where do we need to see normally tenders to get to where you can push price? Does it need to be above 8? Does it need to be above 10? Kind of where is that historic kind of breaking point? Where do we need to see normally tenders to get to where you can push price? where do we need to see normally tenders to get to where you can push price Does it need to be above 8? does it need to be above 8 Does it need to be above 10? does it need to be above 10 Kind of where is that historic kind of breaking point? kind of where is that historic kind of breaking point
Speaker 5: Yeah. It needs to be at 10 or above. That's typically whenever you start to see tender rejections called spot loads. Whenever it gets into the mid-teens, that's excessive spot loads. If you get back into a COVID-like environment, I think it was sitting in the high 20s, low 30s during that time frame. Yeah. yeah It needs to be at 10 or above. it needs to be at 10 or above That's typically whenever you start to see tender rejections called spot loads. that's typically whenever you start to see tender rejections called spot loads Whenever it gets into the mid-teens, that's excessive spot loads. whenever it gets into the mid-teens that's excessive spot loads If you get back into a COVID-like environment, I think it was sitting in the high 20s, low 30s during that time frame. if you get back into a covid-like environment i think it was sitting in the high 20s low 30s during that time frame
Speaker 1: Your point would be in the long run, this is a good thing. When the market does stabilize, we're better off. It would be the takeaway. Your point would be in the long run, this is a good thing. your point would be in the long run this is a good thing When the market does stabilize, we're better off. when the market does stabilize we're better off It would be the takeaway. it would be the takeaway
Speaker 5: In the long run, this is not a good thing. This is a great thing. You're talking about the carriers that customers are doing business with, the people who have been there for them, that they know that have the right qualifications on who they're doing business with. That's what they're looking for. For us, the quality of carriers that we work for, the bar is extremely high. This is not something that we just started doing because of the federal mandates. If you go on and you look at our website, you can't go on and start a trucking company and do business with today. A lot of the large brokerages, you can go on and start doing business with today. We want to be able to monitor your safe set score. We want to be able to see a history of what you've done. In the long run, this is not a good thing. in the long run this is not a good thing This is a great thing. this is a great thing You're talking about the carriers that customers are doing business with, the people who have been there for them, that they know that have the right qualifications on who they're doing business with. you're talking about the carriers that customers are doing business with the people who have been there for them that they know that have the right qualifications on who they're doing business with That's what they're looking for. that's what they're looking for For us, the quality of carriers that we work for, the bar is extremely high. for us the quality of carriers that we work for the bar is extremely high This is not something that we just started doing because of the federal mandates. this is not something that we just started doing because of the federal mandates If you go on and you look at our website, you can't go on and start a trucking company and do business with today. if you go on and you look at our website you can't go on and start a trucking company and do business with today A lot of the large brokerages, you can go on and start doing business with today. a lot of the large brokerages you can go on and start doing business with today We want to be able to monitor your safe set score. we want to be able to monitor your safe set score We want to be able to see a history of what you've done. we want to be able to see a history of what you've done A lot of other brokers, you can go out there and you can do your first loads with them digitally. While digital is an important aspect of being able to do freight, the first thing that we want to do is get to know the carriers that we're doing business with. We do not allow your first few loads to be booked digitally. We want to know who we're doing business with as you come onto the platform. We built the business off of high cargo value, off of automotive. The vetting process for carriers for us has always been very strict and always been above federal guidelines. We think we're in a very good position to win off of that. A lot of other brokers, you can go out there and you can do your first loads with them digitally. a lot of other brokers you can go out there and you can do your first loads with them digitally While digital is an important aspect of being able to do freight, the first thing that we want to do is get to know the carriers that we're doing business with. while digital is an important aspect of being able to do freight the first thing that we want to do is get to know the carriers that we're doing business with We do not allow your first few loads to be booked digitally. we do not allow your first few loads to be booked digitally We want to know who we're doing business with as you come onto the platform. we want to know who we're doing business with as you come onto the platform We built the business off of high cargo value, off of automotive. we built the business off of high cargo value off of automotive The vetting process for carriers for us has always been very strict and always been above federal guidelines. the vetting process for carriers for us has always been very strict and always been above federal guidelines We think we're in a very good position to win off of that. we think we're in a very good position to win off of that
Speaker 1: Okay. Thank you very much. Okay. okay Thank you very much. thank you very much
Speaker 2: Thank you. That appears to be our last question. I'll turn the conference back to Drew Wilkerson for any additional remarks. Thank you. thank you That appears to be our last question. that appears to be our last question I'll turn the conference back to Drew Wilkerson for any additional remarks. i'll turn the conference back to drew wilkerson for any additional remarks
Speaker 5: Thank you, Michael. We're in a squeeze, but I remain extremely confident in RXO's ability to deliver outsized earnings growth over the long term. Our improved cost structure, larger scale, continued focus on profitable growth, best-in-class technology, and ability to generate cash are differentiators for RXO. We remain focused on what has made us so successful over the past decade plus. We provide exceptional service, a comprehensive set of solutions, cutting-edge technology, and deep customer relationships. Thank you all for your time today and look forward to seeing you soon. Thank you, Michael. thank you michael We're in a squeeze, but I remain extremely confident in RXO's ability to deliver outsized earnings growth over the long term. we're in a squeeze but i remain extremely confident in rxo's ability to deliver outsized earnings growth over the long term Our improved cost structure, larger scale, continued focus on profitable growth, best-in-class technology, and ability to generate cash are differentiators for RXO. our improved cost structure larger scale continued focus on profitable growth best-in-class technology and ability to generate cash are differentiators for rxo We remain focused on what has made us so successful over the past decade plus. we remain focused on what has made us so successful over the past decade plus We provide exceptional service, a comprehensive set of solutions, cutting-edge technology, and deep customer relationships. we provide exceptional service a comprehensive set of solutions cutting-edge technology and deep customer relationships Thank you all for your time today and look forward to seeing you soon. thank you all for your time today and look forward to seeing you soon
Speaker 2: Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. ladies and gentlemen this concludes today's conference call Thank you for your participation. thank you for your participation You may now disconnect. you may now disconnect