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Nutrien Ltd. — Call Transcript 2025
Aug 7, 2025
Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2025 second quarter earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Holzman, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations at Nutrien. Thank you, Operator. Good morning and welcome to Nutrien's second quarter 2025 earnings call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans, and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts, therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions is contained in our quarterly report to shareholders, as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A, and annual information form. I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO, and Mark Thompson, our CFO, for opening comments. Good morning. Thank you for joining us today as we review our performance in the first half of 2025, progress on our strategic priorities, and the outlook for our business. Our first half results featured record potash sales volumes and nitrogen operating rates, lower expenses, reduced capital expenditures, and increased returns of cash to our shareholders. We raised our 2025 full-year guidance for potash sales volumes while maintaining all other operational guidance ranges. At our Investor Day in June 2024, we communicated a pathway to structurally improve our earnings and free cash flow through strategic initiatives across the portfolio. We also shared key operational and financial targets to measure our progress. Our results through the first half of 2025 demonstrated significant progress towards achieving these goals. Starting with our upstream operating segments, we increased fertilizer sales volumes by more than 400,000 tons compared to the same period last year and realized higher net selling prices. These results highlight the capabilities of our world-class operations, extensive distribution network, and strong customer relationships that were built over many decades. We continue to prioritize investments that further strengthen our ability to cost-effectively supply the growing needs of our customers. In potash, this includes advancing mine automation projects that enhance efficiency, flexibility, and most importantly, safety benefits at our sites. In the first half of 2025, we mined over 40% of our potash using automation. This is within our 40%-50% target range for 2026. Our nitrogen operations performed exceptionally well in the first half, achieving a 98% ammonia utilization rate. The focus on reliability projects at our nitrogen sites has yielded clear and favorable results. Further, ground-field de-bottlenecking efforts are now complete at our Redwater and Geismar plants that will add 150,000 tons of annual production capacity. Within our downstream retail segment, well-defined growth opportunities continue to be progressed, along with network optimization initiatives that resulted in a 6% reduction in expenses in the first half. As previously communicated, we are ahead of schedule on our company-wide $200 million cost-savings target and expect to achieve this goal in 2025. Capital expenditures in the first half of 2025 were 18% below the prior year as we optimized capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and progressed a set of targeted growth projects. We allocated $786 million to dividends and share repurchases in the first half, representing a 49% increase from the prior year. To put this all together, Nutrien generated higher earnings and cash from operations driven by supportive fertilizer market fundamentals and execution of our strategic priorities. We lowered costs and capital expenditures through efforts to simplify and focus our business, and we significantly increased the distribution of cash to shareholders. We believe these actions build upon the strength of our world-class asset base and position the company for strong performance into the future. Now turning to the market outlook, global fertilizer fundamentals have strengthened in 2025, leading to higher benchmark prices across nearly all products. Potash prices increased at a steady pace since the beginning of the year, driven by trend demand growth that is testing global operating and supply chain capabilities. The settlement of potash contracts with India and China and favorable economics for key crops grown in Southeast Asia is expected to support demand in standard-grade markets in the second half of 2025. We had a solid uptake on our potash summer field program in North America and anticipate stable demand in Brazil. As a result, we have raised our 2025 full-year global potash shipment forecast to 73 million-75 million tons. Beyond 2025, we see a constructive outlook for the potash market. We expect demand growth in line with historical trend levels and limited new capacity additions in the near term. Recent industry announcements further highlight that building new capacity requires significant time and capital and often comes with the risk of delays. Global nitrogen markets are being supported by supply-side challenges and strong seasonal demand from markets such as India. Nitrogen prices in the U.S. have been further supported by low domestic inventories and trade flow shifts, which we anticipate continuing in the second half of 2025. Phosphate markets remain tight due to limited supply, including Chinese export restrictions. We expect global shipments in 2025 will be constrained by supply availability, and a weaker grower affordability for phosphate fertilizer could impact demand. We continue to closely monitor supply and demand developments for ag commodities and farmer sentiment in our key markets. Crop input demand in North America was strong in July as farmers focused on maintaining optimal plant health and yield potential. Based on current projected crop yields, we expect large nutrient removal will support the need to replenish nutrients in the soil. Brazilian soybean acreage is expected to increase by 1%-3% in 2025, driven by strong international soybean demand. Growers in Brazil have been more active purchasing crop inputs in advance of the upcoming spring planting season compared to the prior two years. Overall, we continue to see a solid backdrop for our business in the second half of 2025 and are well-positioned to serve our customers. We operate in the most extensive network of assets across the ag value chain and will continue to focus on factors under our control to optimize free cash flow under any market conditions. I will now turn it over to Mark to review our results, full-year guidance, and capital allocation priorities in more detail. Thanks, Ken. As Ken described, our second quarter and first half results highlight a strong pace of progress towards our Investor Day targets. Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion in the second quarter, up 11% from the prior year, while cash provided by operating activities rose by 40%. In potash, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $630 million in the second quarter, well above the prior year due to record sales volumes and higher offshore net selling prices. Our North American net selling price was down from the same quarter in 2024, but up $36 per ton from the first quarter of 2025, as we benefited from price increases following our winter fill program. Our first half's controllable cash cost of product manufactured was higher than the prior year due to lower planned potash production and increased turnaround costs. However, we continue to track favorably against our goal of maintaining a controllable cash cost that is at or below $60 per ton. We raised our full-year potash sales volume guidance to 13.9 million-14.5 million tons due to the strength of first half sales and increased visibility on the second half order book. Canpotex is fully committed for third quarter sales volumes and has a significant order book in place for the fourth quarter. We had a favorable response to our domestic summer fill program and anticipate a similar split between offshore and domestic sales volumes in the third quarter compared to the prior year. Our nitrogen operating segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $667 million in the second quarter, up from last year due to higher net selling prices and sales volumes. Our nitrogen plants operated very well, achieving a 98% ammonia operating rate in both the quarter and the first half. We have maintenance scheduled at our Redwater and Borger nitrogen sites starting in the third quarter that will reduce our planned second half ammonia operating rates to around 85%. Overall, we anticipate higher year-over-year operating rates on a full-year basis and have maintained our nitrogen sales volumes guidance at 10.7 million-11.2 million tons. In phosphate, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $92 million in the second quarter, with higher net selling prices offset by lower sales volumes and higher sulfur input costs. We completed two successful turnarounds in the second quarter and have operated at higher rates since the completion of this planned maintenance, positioning our phosphate business to deliver increased sales volumes and lower operating costs in the second half of the year. Our downstream retail business delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion in the second quarter, up 2% from the prior year. We saw strong crop input demand in the U.S. Corn Belt, consistent with our previous view that a slower start to field activity in March would be made up in the second quarter. This strength was partially offset by unfavorable crop protection product mix shifts, dry weather in Australia, and wet weather in the southern U.S. that impacted planted acres. A loss of rice and cotton acres in the South was a primary contributor to the reduction in our proprietary seed sales in the second quarter. We've maintained our full-year retail adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.65 million-$1.85 billion, with the midpoint of the range underpinned by four key items. First, as Ken mentioned, we saw strong North American crop input demand in July and anticipate higher crop nutritional and crop protection purchases in the third quarter compared to the prior year. Second, we assume an open fall season in North America and project fertilizer volumes up approximately 5% compared to last year, which had a shortened application window due to wet weather. Third, timely rains have improved winter crop planting prospects in Australia, and the outlook for crop input demand looks more favorable for the second half of the year. Finally, our margin improvement plan in Brazil remains on track, and we expect to generate increased year-over-year earnings through network optimization initiatives. To summarize, we delivered higher earnings and cash flow in the first half of the year, and we see clear momentum for growth on a full-year basis, supported by higher upstream fertilizer sales volumes, net selling prices, and downstream retail earnings. In terms of capital allocation, our priorities remain consistent. We're focused on initiatives that support the achievement of our 2026 performance targets, optimizing investments in working capital, and continuing to review non-core assets on our balance sheet, all of which we expect will enhance sources of cash flow over time. From a uses of cash perspective, we've committed capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and forge a narrow set of growth opportunities that have a strong fit with our strategy, are expected to provide returns in excess of our hurdle rates, and have a relatively low degree of execution risk. We have a long track record of providing a stable and growing dividend and intend on enhancing the return of capital to shareholders through more ratable share buybacks through the cycle. We remain disciplined in our approach to maintain a strong balance sheet and prioritize capital towards opportunities that we expect will deliver long-term growth in free cash flow per share. I'll now turn it back to Ken. Thanks, Mark. We have a constructive outlook for our business as global fertilizer market fundamentals have tightened in 2025, supported by strong demand, persistent supply disruptions, and project delays. We demonstrated strong operational performance and execution on our strategic priorities in the first half of the year, structurally improving Nutrien's earnings and free cash. We continue to strengthen our highly competitive asset base across the ag value chain and remain committed to disciplined capital allocation to maximize long-term value for our shareholders. We would now be happy to take your questions. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the number one on your touch tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by the number two. If you are using a speaker phone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. The first question comes from Chris Parkinson from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Thank you so much. In the beginning of the year, there was a little bit of a debate on potash supply being offline and the market and the price appreciation being more of a supply-driven market. Towards the end of the first half, it became more evident that it was more of a demand-driven market. It seems investors are still on edge given some belief that half-on-half supply is going to dramatically improve and basically curb upside to prices or even lead to declines. Can you just give us your updated thoughts on those specific dynamics, especially out of the FSU, and then how that sets up for the 2026 market? Thank you so much. Yeah, thanks, Chris. Yeah, so, you know, talking specifically about potash, if we, you know, looking globally, we're seeing very strong demand. We saw a return to trend level demand last year coming out of 2022 and 2023, and that's certainly the case this year where we've raised our expectations for the market to 73 million-5 million tons. That would be, you know, the strongest demand that we've seen in the market. We also have confidence that that potash is going to ground because we don't see inventories elevated really in any market around the world. Actually, in several cases, we see inventories below average levels. Part of that has to do with the fact that potash is still relatively affordable. It's, you know, the most affordable crop nutrient. As you say, with that strong demand, it is testing the ability of the market to supply both in terms of mine production, but also the supply chain as well. At the intersection of that very strong demand and what we're seeing on the supply side of the equation, which, and you asked about FSU tons, we don't see any material change in FSU tons coming to the potash market. At the intersection of those things, we see the strengthening that we've seen in the potash price, and we think we're in a good spot as it relates to the potash price. In the here and the now, we've had our summer fill program, which we had strong uptake. We're fully committed in North America through Q3 and are now placing tons in Q4 at our up $20. Similarly, in offshore markets, fully committed through Canpotex through Q3 and heavily committed now into Q4. Again, that, you know, very strong signposts that for 2025, our 73 million-75 million tons and our raised guidance, you know, that we have, we're constructive on those things. It is true that we're looking at North America now for the balance of the year. Obviously, with a very large corn crop that we're seeing in the U.S. and certainly a large crop in Brazil, we've seen some pressure on ag commodity prices and farmer grower margins. At the same time, here into the third quarter, we have seen strong field activity. We've seen good engagement and strong demand. Again, that's the evidence by our commitment levels in North America on potash. Certainly, we're seeing some strength into the fall in nitrogen as well. Your question was on potash. To put it all together, Chris, we're constructive on 2025. Your question about handing into 2026, again, given where inventory levels are at, we don't see elevated inventory levels that, with potash being affordable, growers are going to be looking to replace the large amount of crop nutrients that are going to be pulled out of the soil with this big crop. Your next question comes from Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking that question. Maybe just touching a little bit on what you just touched on at the end of your answer there on affordability. What's your sense on farmer sentiment and health today, just given some of the recent softness there? How does that change in fertilizer affordability impact purchasing? Maybe more specific to just the dynamic between nitrogen, phosphate, and potash, because the prices for all three have moved in different directions, which we haven't really seen for a very, very long time. How does that impact farmer decisions on what fertilizers to apply? Thank you. Yeah, thanks, Andrew. Certainly, as I mentioned, we are seeing some pressure on ag commodity prices, corn, soybeans, and on grower margins. For the first half of the year, things kind of played out the way we'd expected. In the Corn Belt, in the Western U.S. and Canada, and Brazil, it was really the Southern U.S. where it was wet and Australia where it was dry, where we saw some pressure. We're feeling some of that now into the second quarter. That said, we're seeing strong uptake in the third quarter and field activity. In Australia, while it was a slow start given a dry beginning of the planting season for their winter crop, they've gotten some rain in July here, which now we've seen increased activity. I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk a little bit more about that. Maybe Chris, if you want to talk about those dynamics between N, P, and K on that sort of affordability discussion. Yeah, thanks, Ken. As you mentioned earlier, we continue to see very strong engagement from our growers as we go into the third quarter. If I look at the areas that were not affected by weather in the first half of the year, we would see most of those regions have performed basically in line with what we thought. You mentioned the Corn Belt, our Western U.S. business, Canada, and Brazil from that standpoint. You mentioned the Corn Belt specifically. We saw our tonnage up about 9% for the first half of the year. As I look going into the third quarter, we see growers investing dollars to protect their yields right now. When you get in a low-price environment, growers are going to really push for yields in that type of environment. We see that happening right now from a plant health standpoint and from a nutritional standpoint. Yeah, thanks, Jeff. And Andrew, as we think about the domestic market and that balance between NPK, as Ken mentioned, there is a big crop growing out there that's going to pull a lot of nutrients out of the ground. Our midstream customers are telling us they need to prepare for what they believe is going to be a good fall application season. This crop is developing well. We do believe that subject to weather, there'll be an open window there for growers to get out and apply fertilizer in the fall, especially in the Midwest. As Ken said, potash remains the most affordable nutrient. What our customers are telling us is they're preparing for a good fall across NPK. As you've noticed, these nutrients have moved in different directions a little bit in terms of pricing. We'll be watching how that's balanced in the fall. Overall, we're getting ready and our customers are getting ready for a good fall application period. Your next question comes from Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Hi, if I could just harp on the retail demand or fall demand question in North America a little bit more. I know that the biggest determinant, I think I know that the biggest determinant of a fall season is just how good the weather is, the open season comments you said. I know that. Are your comments just really about that, that it looks like the weather's going to be good and that's the largest determinant of a fall season, not necessarily affordability? That's my first question. The second question is just as you think about Brazil and retail, how confident are you that you'll be able to shift next year to getting back to a $50 million, $60 million, $70 million, $80 million EBITDA run rate versus maybe break even this year? What are the drivers to get there next? Thank you, Joel. I think you've actually articulated that well, that heading into the fall here, given the signposts that we're seeing and that we've talked about as it relates to good engagement so far in Q3, and certainly we saw that in July. The crop that's coming off is going to pull a lot of, again, fertilizer, soil nutrients out of the ground. The discussions that we're having with our customers and where inventory levels are at, that given an open application season, yes, we expect to have a decent fall, but that's dependent on weather. Exactly as you said, we're expecting fertilizer volumes to be up 5% from last year. You may recall that we had a compressed application season last year. Where the crop is at today, and some being harvested as we speak, things are pointing to an open fall, and that's good for seeing volumes go to ground. As it relates to Brazil, what I'll say is our Brazil improvement plan is on track. We've talked about the decisions that we've made as it relates to shuttering of plants. We've reduced headcount. There is focus on collections, our focus on inventory management, and shuttering of blenders. All of those things now contributing for us to get to a sort of a break even, somewhat even perhaps positive EBITDA level here in 2025. We expect that trend to continue into 2026, where obviously the market needs to continue to cooperate, but we expect that we'll be in the positive next year. Your next question comes from Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Thank you very much, and good morning. If we move past fall demand and start thinking about 2026, if corn and soy prices hold at about $4 and $10 respectively over the next little while, what are the risks to each of your segments? If farmer economics stay where they are in the Americas, how much downside do you think we have in which divisions? The reason why I'm asking is you talked about potash being affordable, but on the other hand, some would argue that potash is typically a lower ranked crop input. I'm just trying to triangulate that. Thank you. Yeah, thank you for the question, Ben. Yeah, it's true. I'm already starting to think about 2026. You know, growers will get this crop off and they'll be looking to get ready for next year and another big crop. We'll see where corn and soybean prices are at. If we go commodity to commodity, again, we see ongoing strength in potash demand. The way it's been growing, as I said earlier, on trend. Heading into 2026, we believe that to be true as well. It's just step change in demand in places like China, Southeast Asia, with 4,200 ringgit palm oil prices and a mandate, a palm oil clean fuel mandate of 40%, moving from 35%. Very strong demand in Southeast Asia. We look at Brazil, where last year they consumed 47 million tons of fertilizer. This year, it'll be 48 million tons of fertilizer. We can go market to market. Of course, North America, again, we see a lot of crop nutrients coming out of the soil. On the demand side of the equation, we see strength. On the supply side, I won't call it challenged, but we have seen project delays, and we have seen the ability of the market to meet these demand levels. At that intersection, we see where prices are at, and prices are strong. Prices are at a good place right now because, as I said earlier, it's affordable. At the same time, we like to see volumes moving to our customers at these levels. We see that carrying into 2026. On nitrogen, we've seen again strong demand, and the Indians having difficulty procuring urea, while at the same time Chinese limiting urea exports and certainly not getting back to sort of historic average levels out of that part of the world, which has meant strength in urea markets combined with some supply disruptions, certainly out of the Middle East. That would be true for ammonia, where we, again, we see a bit of seasonal weakness at the moment. Given some challenges, supply challenges that are rushing in the Middle East and some of the new project challenges that are rushing in the Gulf Coast, there's been supply issues there as well. We'll see about European gas pricing as compared to North America, where the delta is still $8 or $9. Again, we head into 2026, and we expect that those dynamics will persist. I think we can talk about phosphate. Yes, phosphate prices are elevated. We're watching for a grower reaction to higher prices here into the fall and how that translates into 2026. Again, strong demand over phosphate and supply side issues. You can go nutrient to nutrient and heading out of 2025 and 2026. We'll see how the international grower is feeling. We'll see what happens here in North America. Overall, Ben, we feel constructive. Your next question comes from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit about your own expectations for your potash production going into next year. It sounds like you're anticipating another year of shipment growth for the industry. The commentary for a while now has been that you're looking to take your traditional market share. What incremental capacity would you look to add into next year? Yeah, thanks, Vincent. This year, you've seen our guidance range, which we've upped to just over 14 million tons at the midpoint. We would say that we look at the way we've built out not just our mine production, but now our supply chains and ability to get to customers. We have 15 million tons of installed capacity, although not obviously staffing to those levels, because the lead time for staffing is such that we can watch the market and, as it evolves, bring on operators to continue to liberate tons. That will be the same philosophy for next year, where you can expect that as the market grows, and we've talked about this 2.5% average annual growth rates on trend, which is where we are today, that we will grow with the market and maintain market share. We will bring on those operators, and we will produce those tons. We have the flexibility with our six-mile network. We've made those investments in our supply chain to get to our customers. That gives us the flexibility to expand tons into this growing market. Your next question comes from Steve Hansen from Raymond James. Please go ahead. Oh, yes, good morning. Thanks for the time. Just a broader question about the portfolio. How do you feel about the portfolio from an optimization standpoint today? You've gone through a process of divesting a few non-core items here in the South, not recently. Is there more to do there on that front in terms of further optimizing or streamlining the core versus non-core? How do you view that as an opportunity? Where is it even a priority today? Thanks. Yeah, thanks for the question, Steve. I will say we're probably never done at looking at the portfolio and understanding how to optimize, you know, free cash flow per share and return on those assets. Absolutely true that we have done quite a bit of work on that front already, whether it's the process that we're in in Profertil right now, divesting of our shares in Sinofert, which we've talked about. We've actually gotten rid of some smaller immaterial assets, some in Italy. We've sold a blender in Brazil. I just provide those as examples of us just continuing to really be rigorous across the portfolio, insisting on performance. I'm not in a position today to talk about, you know, further portfolio changes and how we're going to manage that. What I can say is, yes, we're absolutely looking at opportunities to continue to upgrade that portfolio in the name of free cash flow per share and a return on those assets. Appreciate the time. Thank you. Your next question comes from Jeffrey Zekauskas from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Thanks very much. Your gross profits per ton in North America in crop nutrients is, you know, kind of flat, even though, you know, the different commodities have performed pretty well. In general, in your retail segment, you seem to be doing a good job of cutting SG&A costs, but not so much making progress on the gross margin. Is that just weather? Are you satisfied with your general performance? What are the dynamics around gross profits at SG&A levels? Thank you for the question, Jeff. There are a number of moving parts there. We are pleased with our progress, certainly on the cost side of the equation. There is more to do there. We know that, and we expect carrying out through the balance of the year. That will be part of the story, ongoing focus and reductions in cost. Maybe I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk more about just margins on fertilizers and what we're seeing through the balance of the year. Yeah, if I just walk through the segment from a margin rate perspective, our crop protection margins actually were surprisingly a bit better than we anticipated coming into this year through the first half. We think we see an opportunity to expand that a bit more in the second half. If I look at our margins on fertilizer, if you look at it from a global basis, we are flat year-over-year. That takes, you got to take into effect that we strategically made decisions in Brazil to lower our tonnage there and go to a different marketing, direct marketing concept versus going through those blenders that we've mentioned several times that we idle. That brings a lower margin profile on those tons. I think we're down, we strategically plan to be down about 200,000 tons through the half. That's basically what we're off from that standpoint. We are in a, you know, as we've talked about several times today, we're in a competitive environment. I'm pleased with where we are today. From a margin perspective, I think as we get an opportunity to get more of our nutritionals into our mix, which again, we've seen a very strong start in July, I think we'll see that margin per ton pick up a bit. On the seed side, our margin rates on seed are in line with our expectations as well. That was more of a volume story, but we're continuously working to try to get our margins up. We talk about the second half of the year and we talk about controlling our controls. One aspect of that is working to continue to expand our margins across all of our crop input segments. Your next question comes from Kristen Owen from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead. Hi, good morning. Thank you for the question. Somewhat of a double click or follow-up on that prior one. Speaking specifically to this EBITDA bridge for the first half of the year, you've noted the more favorable environment in July. I'm just wondering if there's anything here in this bridge, whether it's crop protection products or maybe even on the expenses that shifts around in the back half of the year, anything that turns from a bad guy to a good guy, just how to think about that bridge for the back half. Thank you. Yeah, certainly at the higher level, it's the things we've talked about, but I'll hand it over to Jeff for that double click. Yeah, for the second half of the year, and I think I mentioned it just a minute ago, controlling our controllable at the top of our list. We also think, again, that we have an opportunity to convert more acres on our foliar nutritionals, which we really like a lot. We like our portfolio as it relates to that. A heavy, heavy focus on the expense side of things. I think through the first half, we were able to take 6% out. We expect to continue with that effort in the second half of the year. Ken mentioned Australia. We've got some, you know, we had a very tough half from a weather perspective there. We see improvements there. We think that's going to bring us some opportunities on the proprietary side of the business as well as we go into the second half of the year. Your next question comes from Edlain Rodriguez of Mizuho. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just a quick question on potash, Ken. I think a comment I've heard somebody say is, what is wrong with potash? As you know, it's surprisingly the most affordable nutrient, lagging behind both phosphate and nitrogen. Seriously, do you prefer being in that position or do you want to close the price gap between potash and the other nutrients? Related to that, I think last week we saw a small decline in potash prices in Brazil. That's the first drop in almost a year. Does that mean anything to you or do you just think it's just a blip? Yeah, Edlain, thank you for the question. We are constructive on the potash market and we like when potash is affordable for growers and when it is, we see record potash demand and consumption. That's what's playing out today. Meeting the supply side of the equation, that intersection clears the market at what has been kind of 10-year average historic level potash prices. Those are healthy prices for us. We are constructive on that. Heading into the fall here, and we've talked about North America, but globally, whether it's Southeast Asia and palm plantations or whether it's step change in China, what we're seeing on the macro level in Brazil and North America, an open fall application season in North America, our volumes are moving, our mines are producing, our unit cost of production is going to be below $60. That's where we like to be. In Brazil, they're getting ready to plant soybeans here in September. There's been a bit of a seasonal lull in Brazil. That's true. We've seen a bit of softening in the price, but we expect there's going to be a lot of volume moving again and going to ground as they plant soybeans in that part of the world. Overall, I certainly appreciate the question, but no, we are constructive on where the potash market is today. Your next question comes from Ariana Milin of CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. With relatively better pricing for ammonia over upgraded nitrogen products in North America, do you see the potential for a shift to greater ammonia use as a source of nitrogen in the fall? Yeah, thanks for the question, Ariana. Chris, do you want to just explain that a bit? Yeah, no, good morning, Ariana. Thanks for the question. As we look at that fall, it'll be dependent on how growers are thinking about what they're going to plant next year. If they're going to put ammonia down in the fall, that would mean a commitment to planting corn. We'll wait and see. Sometimes these growers make this decision while they're on the combine and what they're thinking about for next year. We don't see a material shift in terms of the nitrogen product going down this fall. We think that will be at about average levels. I would say that we are seeing low inventory levels of UAN right now, and we are thinking that there's going to be some strength in that price as we look towards the fall season. Your next question comes from Matthew DeYoe of Bank of America. Please go ahead. Morning. I apologize if I missed this earlier, but retail is obviously pretty weak through 1H, and maybe that's just cotton in the South or whatever. As you think about, or can you provide a little clarity on price volumes there? As we set up for next year, assuming a more, if it is the South, right, if weather is more cooperative, do you expect to get that volume back pretty well, I guess? I don't know. I'll leave it there. Yeah, no, Matt. Thanks for the question. I think you've said it. We did see some crop mix shifts in that part of the world. Jeff, do you want to just dive into that a little bit? Yeah, thanks, Ken. The seed revenue is 100% around two factors. First, we saw significant Prevent Plant in our southern region. Our southern region is our largest share of seed in North America, and when you have something like Prevent Plant, it can have a dramatic effect on seed revenue. Those acres actually did not get planted. I would expect 100% of that to return next year, forecasting that we would have a spring not unlike what we had this last year, which in that area was one of the wettest springs in the last 150 years. We also saw crop mix changes, and that's primarily around cotton. Due to some of the economics around cotton and across the South, we saw a lot of cotton acres. If you're in Texas, a lot of cotton acres converted to sorghum or milo, which is much less significant from a revenue perspective. We'll have to see year-over-year what cotton commodity pricing does. I would anticipate in Texas, we would see some of those acres return, but it's way too early to predict that right now. Your next question comes from David Simmons of BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Hi, good afternoon. I've just come back on Jeff's question. If I look at the average selling price in the crop nutrient segment of retail, it's up 2% year on year, whilst into the third quarter, the potash NOLA benchmark, for example, is up 20%+ year on year. Is there a catch-up pricing benefit in the second half for retail? Justin, do you want to take that? Yeah, and some of that is reflected from a standpoint of, I've said this many times, with as many tons as we move to these markets, we have to layer in our purchasing. We would have, for the tail end of the season, been buying into a market that was much higher priced from that standpoint. That affects margins as well from that standpoint. We feel like we're well positioned going into the fall. We don't think we're overly aggressive from that standpoint. I'm going to allude back to many of the things that were said here today. We talked a lot about having a really large corn crop. We also have a really large soybean crop, which removes a lot of nutrients as well. We do see some opportunities in the back half of the year. We talked about it. If we get an open fall, then we see an opportunity to move about 5% more volume into that market. We hope we can do it as well by expanding some margin. Your next question comes from Lucas Beaumont of UBS. Please go ahead. Thank you. Good morning. Just going back to potash, you've mentioned that you have seen sort of some challenges in the market meeting the demand level this year from a supply perspective. I think just looking to 2026, if we get another year of normal demand growth, where do you kind of see the supply coming from? If you think the market's going to struggle to meet that and you want to maybe flex up and take more than your 20% share, when would you kind of need to push the button on those staffing decisions you mentioned? Thanks. Yeah, thanks for the question, Lucas. It continues to be the case that we've seen those FSU tons come back into the market. We've seen some new tons coming out of Laos, although the rate of growth out of that part of the world has slowed. We've seen, as we mentioned earlier, project delays that certainly are going to impact next year and beyond. Strong demand meeting supply, we'd kind of call the market in balance at the moment or close to being in balance and heading into next year. We have a few other producers that can probably on the margins expand production a bit, and certainly we would be one of those as well, Lucas. I would say with what we're intending for next year, which, as I mentioned earlier, is a strategy to maintain market share, grow with the market as it grows, meet the needs of our customers who are growing at that rate as well, and bring on people to produce accordingly. That's our plan. We expect to be in a strong market next year given the demand fundamentals and the fact that the supply is right around that demand level, will be right around that demand level, and certainly as project delays continue to persist. Your next question comes from Ben Theurer of Barclays. Please go ahead. Good morning, and thank you very much for taking my question. I wanted to follow up real quick on capital allocation as we look into it. You had a significant improvement in terms of free cash flow generation versus a year ago, but at the same time, it feels like there's a little bit of a slowdown on the share repurchase program. I just want to understand how you think about these purchases in regards to just dividend versus investments and share repurchases. Thank you. Thank you for the question, Ben. No slowdown on share repurchases. We've been buying at about the $45 million per month level. I think for the balance of the year, that's a good way to think about it as the year has unfolded for us and certainly as we continue to be quite constructive on how it's unfolding. With respect to the broader philosophy around capital allocation, dividends, and share repurchases, I'll hand it over to Mark to provide more detail. Yeah, thanks, Ken. Good morning, Ben. Maybe just stepping back a bit and reiterate a couple of comments that both Ken and I have made this morning. I think first and foremost, continue to focus on generating increasing structural sources of cash for the business. We continue to see strong operational performance, and that was evident here in the first half for us. Growing underlying earnings across the entire business in line with our investor day targets, and we feel like we're making good progress on that. As Ken has also mentioned, and I have as well, continuing to look at a really rigorous approach to working capital optimization and shedding assets in the portfolio that don't generate the types of returns that we want. Over time, we think all of those things will grow cash. More specifically to your question on capital allocation, our priorities are consistent and they haven't really changed. If you look at our CapEx profile of the year, $2 billion-$2.1 billion with $400 million-$500 million of that focused on a very narrow set of growth priorities that we continue to execute against. More specifically with respect to return of capital, as Ken said, the philosophy around share repurchases really over the past year has been ratable buybacks over time. We want that to be something that is a staple in our capital allocation framework over time and through cycles. As Ken mentioned, that roughly $45 million per month run rate is something that we see as being sustainable and balanced through the remainder of the year. You mentioned the dividend. With respect to the dividend, the philosophy has also not changed there. We like the absolute level of the dividend from a cash outlay standpoint, and we believe that as we continue to repurchase the stock of the company, we'll be able to grow dividends per share over time, just as we have this year. Amongst all of that, we believe we can continue to strengthen the balance sheet. It continues to be just a disciplined, focused, and balanced approach on capital allocation. Your next question comes from Richard Garchitorena of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Great, thank you. Maybe just wanted to touch on the cost progress that you've made, roughly almost $200 million in cost savings expected this year. Should we expect additional buckets? Do you see further upside potential in that target? Are you thinking about additional cost savings in 2026? Thanks. Thank you for the question, Richard. Yes, we had set ourselves a $200 million cost reduction target by 2026, and it was really targeting SG&A. Thus far we would say we're going to certainly achieve that in 2025, ahead of schedule. About half of that coming out of our retail business and about half of it coming out of our corporate SG&A. Is there more to be done? The answer to that is also yes. Maybe I'll hand it over to Mark just to provide a little more color. Sure. Thanks, Ken. Good morning. As Ken said, we're beginning to see those expense rationalization activities really show through in our results, as we showed in our earnings presentation. If you look first half over first half, you can see over $100 million or just over $100 million in expense down versus last year in the first half. I think there's tangible evidence that the efforts that we've made are showing through. As Ken said, that's really been focused about 50% in the retail business across the rationalization activities we've undertaken in Brazil, closures of underperforming locations in North America, regional consolidation of storefronts, and optimization in Australia. In our corporate functions, just continuing to be disciplined about simplifying and focusing the organization. That's resulted in SG&A opportunities. As we continue to move forward, as Ken said, we're quite bullish. There's going to be more opportunities for us as we continue to explore opportunities, and we'll have more to say on that in the future. There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Jeff Holzman for closing remarks. Please go ahead. Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available if you have any follow-up questions. Have a great day.
Speaker 15: Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2025 second quarter earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Holzman, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations at Nutrien. Greetings, and welcome to Nutrien's 2025 second quarter earnings call. greetings and welcome to nutrien's 2025 second quarter earnings call At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. at this time all participants are in a listen-only mode A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. a question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. as a reminder this conference call is being recorded I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jeff Holzman, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations at Nutrien. i would now like to turn the conference call over to jeff holzman senior vice president of investor relations at nutrien
Speaker 16: Thank you, Operator. Good morning and welcome to Nutrien's second quarter 2025 earnings call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans, and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts, therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions is contained in our quarterly report to shareholders, as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A, and annual information form. I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO, and Mark Thompson, our CFO, for opening comments. Thank you, Operator. thank you operator Good morning and welcome to Nutrien's second quarter 2025 earnings call. good morning and welcome to nutrien's second quarter 2025 earnings call As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans, and prospects contain forward-looking information. as we conduct this call various statements that we make about future expectations plans and prospects contain forward-looking information Certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts, therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. certain assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts therefore actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information Additional information about these factors and assumptions is contained in our quarterly report to shareholders, as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A, and annual information form. additional information about these factors and assumptions is contained in our quarterly report to shareholders as well as our most recent annual report md&a and annual information form I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO, and Mark Thompson, our CFO, for opening comments. i will now turn the call over to ken seitz nutrien's president and ceo and mark thompson our cfo for opening comments
Speaker 14: Good morning. Thank you for joining us today as we review our performance in the first half of 2025, progress on our strategic priorities, and the outlook for our business. Our first half results featured record potash sales volumes and nitrogen operating rates, lower expenses, reduced capital expenditures, and increased returns of cash to our shareholders. We raised our 2025 full-year guidance for potash sales volumes while maintaining all other operational guidance ranges. At our Investor Day in June 2024, we communicated a pathway to structurally improve our earnings and free cash flow through strategic initiatives across the portfolio. We also shared key operational and financial targets to measure our progress. Our results through the first half of 2025 demonstrated significant progress towards achieving these goals. Good morning. good morning Thank you for joining us today as we review our performance in the first half of 2025, progress on our strategic priorities, and the outlook for our business. thank you for joining us today as we review our performance in the first half of 2025 progress on our strategic priorities and the outlook for our business Our first half results featured record potash sales volumes and nitrogen operating rates, lower expenses, reduced capital expenditures, and increased returns of cash to our shareholders. our first half results featured record potash sales volumes and nitrogen operating rates lower expenses reduced capital expenditures and increased returns of cash to our shareholders We raised our 2025 full-year guidance for potash sales volumes while maintaining all other operational guidance ranges. we raised our 2025 full-year guidance for potash sales volumes while maintaining all other operational guidance ranges At our Investor Day in June 2024, we communicated a pathway to structurally improve our earnings and free cash flow through strategic initiatives across the portfolio. at our investor day in june 2024 we communicated a pathway to structurally improve our earnings and free cash flow through strategic initiatives across the portfolio We also shared key operational and financial targets to measure our progress. we also shared key operational and financial targets to measure our progress Our results through the first half of 2025 demonstrated significant progress towards achieving these goals. our results through the first half of 2025 demonstrated significant progress towards achieving these goals Starting with our upstream operating segments, we increased fertilizer sales volumes by more than 400,000 tons compared to the same period last year and realized higher net selling prices. These results highlight the capabilities of our world-class operations, extensive distribution network, and strong customer relationships that were built over many decades. We continue to prioritize investments that further strengthen our ability to cost-effectively supply the growing needs of our customers. In potash, this includes advancing mine automation projects that enhance efficiency, flexibility, and most importantly, safety benefits at our sites. In the first half of 2025, we mined over 40% of our potash using automation. This is within our 40%-50% target range for 2026. Our nitrogen operations performed exceptionally well in the first half, achieving a 98% ammonia utilization rate. The focus on reliability projects at our nitrogen sites has yielded clear and favorable results. Starting with our upstream operating segments, we increased fertilizer sales volumes by more than 400,000 tons compared to the same period last year and realized higher net selling prices. starting with our upstream operating segments we increased fertilizer sales volumes by more than 400,000 tons compared to the same period last year and realized higher net selling prices These results highlight the capabilities of our world-class operations, extensive distribution network, and strong customer relationships that were built over many decades. these results highlight the capabilities of our world-class operations extensive distribution network and strong customer relationships that were built over many decades We continue to prioritize investments that further strengthen our ability to cost-effectively supply the growing needs of our customers. we continue to prioritize investments that further strengthen our ability to cost-effectively supply the growing needs of our customers In potash, this includes advancing mine automation projects that enhance efficiency, flexibility, and most importantly, safety benefits at our sites. in potash this includes advancing mine automation projects that enhance efficiency flexibility and most importantly safety benefits at our sites In the first half of 2025, we mined over 40% of our potash using automation. in the first half of 2025 we mined over 40% of our potash using automation This is within our 40 %- 50% target range for 2026. this is within our 40 %- 50% target range for 2026 Our nitrogen operations performed exceptionally well in the first half, achieving a 98% ammonia utilization rate. our nitrogen operations performed exceptionally well in the first half achieving a 98% ammonia utilization rate The focus on reliability projects at our nitrogen sites has yielded clear and favorable results. the focus on reliability projects at our nitrogen sites has yielded clear and favorable results Further, ground-field de-bottlenecking efforts are now complete at our Redwater and Geismar plants that will add 150,000 tons of annual production capacity. Within our downstream retail segment, well-defined growth opportunities continue to be progressed, along with network optimization initiatives that resulted in a 6% reduction in expenses in the first half. As previously communicated, we are ahead of schedule on our company-wide $200 million cost-savings target and expect to achieve this goal in 2025. Capital expenditures in the first half of 2025 were 18% below the prior year as we optimized capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and progressed a set of targeted growth projects. We allocated $786 million to dividends and share repurchases in the first half, representing a 49% increase from the prior year. Further, ground-field de-bottlenecking efforts are now complete at our Redwater and Geismar plants that will add 150,000 tons of annual production capacity. further ground-field de-bottlenecking efforts are now complete at our redwater and geismar plants that will add 150,000 tons of annual production capacity Within our downstream retail segment, well-defined growth opportunities continue to be progressed, along with network optimization initiatives that resulted in a 6% reduction in expenses in the first half. within our downstream retail segment well-defined growth opportunities continue to be progressed along with network optimization initiatives that resulted in a 6% reduction in expenses in the first half As previously communicated, we are ahead of schedule on our company-wide $200 million cost-savings target and expect to achieve this goal in 2025. as previously communicated we are ahead of schedule on our company-wide $200 million cost-savings target and expect to achieve this goal in 2025 Capital expenditures in the first half of 2025 were 18% below the prior year as we optimized capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and progressed a set of targeted growth projects. capital expenditures in the first half of 2025 were 18% below the prior year as we optimized capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and progressed a set of targeted growth projects We allocated $786 million to dividends and share repurchases in the first half, representing a 49% increase from the prior year. we allocated $786 million to dividends and share repurchases in the first half representing a 49% increase from the prior year To put this all together, Nutrien generated higher earnings and cash from operations driven by supportive fertilizer market fundamentals and execution of our strategic priorities. We lowered costs and capital expenditures through efforts to simplify and focus our business, and we significantly increased the distribution of cash to shareholders. We believe these actions build upon the strength of our world-class asset base and position the company for strong performance into the future. Now turning to the market outlook, global fertilizer fundamentals have strengthened in 2025, leading to higher benchmark prices across nearly all products. Potash prices increased at a steady pace since the beginning of the year, driven by trend demand growth that is testing global operating and supply chain capabilities. To put this all together, Nutrien generated higher earnings and cash from operations driven by supportive fertilizer market fundamentals and execution of our strategic priorities. to put this all together nutrien generated higher earnings and cash from operations driven by supportive fertilizer market fundamentals and execution of our strategic priorities We lowered costs and capital expenditures through efforts to simplify and focus our business, and we significantly increased the distribution of cash to shareholders. we lowered costs and capital expenditures through efforts to simplify and focus our business and we significantly increased the distribution of cash to shareholders We believe these actions build upon the strength of our world-class asset base and position the company for strong performance into the future. we believe these actions build upon the strength of our world-class asset base and position the company for strong performance into the future Now turning to the market outlook, global fertilizer fundamentals have strengthened in 2025, leading to higher benchmark prices across nearly all products. now turning to the market outlook global fertilizer fundamentals have strengthened in 2025 leading to higher benchmark prices across nearly all products Potash prices increased at a steady pace since the beginning of the year, driven by trend demand growth that is testing global operating and supply chain capabilities. potash prices increased at a steady pace since the beginning of the year driven by trend demand growth that is testing global operating and supply chain capabilities The settlement of potash contracts with India and China and favorable economics for key crops grown in Southeast Asia is expected to support demand in standard-grade markets in the second half of 2025. We had a solid uptake on our potash summer field program in North America and anticipate stable demand in Brazil. As a result, we have raised our 2025 full-year global potash shipment forecast to 73 million-75 million tons. Beyond 2025, we see a constructive outlook for the potash market. We expect demand growth in line with historical trend levels and limited new capacity additions in the near term. Recent industry announcements further highlight that building new capacity requires significant time and capital and often comes with the risk of delays. Global nitrogen markets are being supported by supply-side challenges and strong seasonal demand from markets such as India. Nitrogen prices in the U.S. The settlement of potash contracts with India and China and favorable economics for key crops grown in Southeast Asia is expected to support demand in standard-grade markets in the second half of 2025. the settlement of potash contracts with india and china and favorable economics for key crops grown in southeast asia is expected to support demand in standard-grade markets in the second half of 2025 We had a solid uptake on our potash summer field program in North America and anticipate stable demand in Brazil. we had a solid uptake on our potash summer field program in north america and anticipate stable demand in brazil As a result, we have raised our 2025 full-year global potash shipment forecast to 73 million - 75 million tons. as a result we have raised our 2025 full-year global potash shipment forecast to 73 million - 75 million tons Beyond 2025, we see a constructive outlook for the potash market. beyond 2025 we see a constructive outlook for the potash market We expect demand growth in line with historical trend levels and limited new capacity additions in the near term. we expect demand growth in line with historical trend levels and limited new capacity additions in the near term Recent industry announcements further highlight that building new capacity requires significant time and capital and often comes with the risk of delays. recent industry announcements further highlight that building new capacity requires significant time and capital and often comes with the risk of delays Global nitrogen markets are being supported by supply-side challenges and strong seasonal demand from markets such as India. global nitrogen markets are being supported by supply-side challenges and strong seasonal demand from markets such as india Nitrogen prices in the U.S. nitrogen prices in the u.s have been further supported by low domestic inventories and trade flow shifts, which we anticipate continuing in the second half of 2025. Phosphate markets remain tight due to limited supply, including Chinese export restrictions. We expect global shipments in 2025 will be constrained by supply availability, and a weaker grower affordability for phosphate fertilizer could impact demand. We continue to closely monitor supply and demand developments for ag commodities and farmer sentiment in our key markets. Crop input demand in North America was strong in July as farmers focused on maintaining optimal plant health and yield potential. Based on current projected crop yields, we expect large nutrient removal will support the need to replenish nutrients in the soil. Brazilian soybean acreage is expected to increase by 1%-3% in 2025, driven by strong international soybean demand. have been further supported by low domestic inventories and trade flow shifts, which we anticipate continuing in the second half of 2025. have been further supported by low domestic inventories and trade flow shifts which we anticipate continuing in the second half of 2025 Phosphate markets remain tight due to limited supply, including Chinese export restrictions. phosphate markets remain tight due to limited supply including chinese export restrictions We expect global shipments in 2025 will be constrained by supply availability, and a weaker grower affordability for phosphate fertilizer could impact demand. we expect global shipments in 2025 will be constrained by supply availability and a weaker grower affordability for phosphate fertilizer could impact demand We continue to closely monitor supply and demand developments for ag commodities and farmer sentiment in our key markets. we continue to closely monitor supply and demand developments for ag commodities and farmer sentiment in our key markets Crop input demand in North America was strong in July as farmers focused on maintaining optimal plant health and yield potential. crop input demand in north america was strong in july as farmers focused on maintaining optimal plant health and yield potential Based on current projected crop yields, we expect large nutrient removal will support the need to replenish nutrients in the soil. based on current projected crop yields we expect large nutrient removal will support the need to replenish nutrients in the soil Brazilian soybean acreage is expected to increase by 1% - 3% in 2025, driven by strong international soybean demand. brazilian soybean acreage is expected to increase by 1% - 3% in 2025 driven by strong international soybean demand Growers in Brazil have been more active purchasing crop inputs in advance of the upcoming spring planting season compared to the prior two years. Overall, we continue to see a solid backdrop for our business in the second half of 2025 and are well-positioned to serve our customers. We operate in the most extensive network of assets across the ag value chain and will continue to focus on factors under our control to optimize free cash flow under any market conditions. I will now turn it over to Mark to review our results, full-year guidance, and capital allocation priorities in more detail. Growers in Brazil have been more active purchasing crop inputs in advance of the upcoming spring planting season compared to the prior two years. growers in brazil have been more active purchasing crop inputs in advance of the upcoming spring planting season compared to the prior two years Overall, we continue to see a solid backdrop for our business in the second half of 2025 and are well-positioned to serve our customers. overall we continue to see a solid backdrop for our business in the second half of 2025 and are well-positioned to serve our customers We operate in the most extensive network of assets across the ag value chain and will continue to focus on factors under our control to optimize free cash flow under any market conditions. we operate in the most extensive network of assets across the ag value chain and will continue to focus on factors under our control to optimize free cash flow under any market conditions I will now turn it over to Mark to review our results, full-year guidance, and capital allocation priorities in more detail. i will now turn it over to mark to review our results full-year guidance and capital allocation priorities in more detail
Speaker 18: Thanks, Ken. As Ken described, our second quarter and first half results highlight a strong pace of progress towards our Investor Day targets. Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion in the second quarter, up 11% from the prior year, while cash provided by operating activities rose by 40%. In potash, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $630 million in the second quarter, well above the prior year due to record sales volumes and higher offshore net selling prices. Our North American net selling price was down from the same quarter in 2024, but up $36 per ton from the first quarter of 2025, as we benefited from price increases following our winter fill program. Our first half's controllable cash cost of product manufactured was higher than the prior year due to lower planned potash production and increased turnaround costs. Thanks, Ken. thanks ken As Ken described, our second quarter and first half results highlight a strong pace of progress towards our Investor Day targets. as ken described our second quarter and first half results highlight a strong pace of progress towards our investor day targets Nutrien delivered adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 billion in the second quarter, up 11% from the prior year, while cash provided by operating activities rose by 40%. nutrien delivered adjusted ebitda of $2.5 billion in the second quarter up 11% from the prior year while cash provided by operating activities rose by 40% In potash, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $630 million in the second quarter, well above the prior year due to record sales volumes and higher offshore net selling prices. in potash we generated adjusted ebitda of $630 million in the second quarter well above the prior year due to record sales volumes and higher offshore net selling prices Our North American net selling price was down from the same quarter in 2024, but up $36 per ton from the first quarter of 2025, as we benefited from price increases following our winter fill program. our north american net selling price was down from the same quarter in 2024 but up $36 per ton from the first quarter of 2025 as we benefited from price increases following our winter fill program Our first half's controllable cash cost of product manufactured was higher than the prior year due to lower planned potash production and increased turnaround costs. our first half's controllable cash cost of product manufactured was higher than the prior year due to lower planned potash production and increased turnaround costs However, we continue to track favorably against our goal of maintaining a controllable cash cost that is at or below $60 per ton. We raised our full-year potash sales volume guidance to 13.9 million-14.5 million tons due to the strength of first half sales and increased visibility on the second half order book. Canpotex is fully committed for third quarter sales volumes and has a significant order book in place for the fourth quarter. We had a favorable response to our domestic summer fill program and anticipate a similar split between offshore and domestic sales volumes in the third quarter compared to the prior year. Our nitrogen operating segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $667 million in the second quarter, up from last year due to higher net selling prices and sales volumes. However, we continue to track favorably against our goal of maintaining a controllable cash cost that is at or below $60 per ton. however we continue to track favorably against our goal of maintaining a controllable cash cost that is at or below $60 per ton We raised our full-year potash sales volume guidance to 13.9 million- 14.5 million tons due to the strength of first half sales and increased visibility on the second half order book. we raised our full-year potash sales volume guidance to 13.9 million- 14.5 million tons due to the strength of first half sales and increased visibility on the second half order book Canpotex is fully committed for third quarter sales volumes and has a significant order book in place for the fourth quarter. canpotex is fully committed for third quarter sales volumes and has a significant order book in place for the fourth quarter We had a favorable response to our domestic summer fill program and anticipate a similar split between offshore and domestic sales volumes in the third quarter compared to the prior year. we had a favorable response to our domestic summer fill program and anticipate a similar split between offshore and domestic sales volumes in the third quarter compared to the prior year Our nitrogen operating segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $667 million in the second quarter, up from last year due to higher net selling prices and sales volumes. our nitrogen operating segment generated adjusted ebitda of $667 million in the second quarter up from last year due to higher net selling prices and sales volumes Our nitrogen plants operated very well, achieving a 98% ammonia operating rate in both the quarter and the first half. We have maintenance scheduled at our Redwater and Borger nitrogen sites starting in the third quarter that will reduce our planned second half ammonia operating rates to around 85%. Overall, we anticipate higher year-over-year operating rates on a full-year basis and have maintained our nitrogen sales volumes guidance at 10.7 million-11.2 million tons. In phosphate, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $92 million in the second quarter, with higher net selling prices offset by lower sales volumes and higher sulfur input costs. We completed two successful turnarounds in the second quarter and have operated at higher rates since the completion of this planned maintenance, positioning our phosphate business to deliver increased sales volumes and lower operating costs in the second half of the year. Our nitrogen plants operated very well, achieving a 98% ammonia operating rate in both the quarter and the first half. our nitrogen plants operated very well achieving a 98% ammonia operating rate in both the quarter and the first half We have maintenance scheduled at our Redwater and Borger nitrogen sites starting in the third quarter that will reduce our planned second half ammonia operating rates to around 85%. we have maintenance scheduled at our redwater and borger nitrogen sites starting in the third quarter that will reduce our planned second half ammonia operating rates to around 85% Overall, we anticipate higher year-over-year operating rates on a full-year basis and have maintained our nitrogen sales volumes guidance at 10.7 million- 11.2 million tons. overall we anticipate higher year-over-year operating rates on a full-year basis and have maintained our nitrogen sales volumes guidance at 10.7 million- 11.2 million tons In phosphate, we generated adjusted EBITDA of $92 million in the second quarter, with higher net selling prices offset by lower sales volumes and higher sulfur input costs. in phosphate we generated adjusted ebitda of $92 million in the second quarter with higher net selling prices offset by lower sales volumes and higher sulfur input costs We completed two successful turnarounds in the second quarter and have operated at higher rates since the completion of this planned maintenance, positioning our phosphate business to deliver increased sales volumes and lower operating costs in the second half of the year. we completed two successful turnarounds in the second quarter and have operated at higher rates since the completion of this planned maintenance positioning our phosphate business to deliver increased sales volumes and lower operating costs in the second half of the year Our downstream retail business delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion in the second quarter, up 2% from the prior year. We saw strong crop input demand in the U.S. Corn Belt, consistent with our previous view that a slower start to field activity in March would be made up in the second quarter. This strength was partially offset by unfavorable crop protection product mix shifts, dry weather in Australia, and wet weather in the southern U.S. that impacted planted acres. A loss of rice and cotton acres in the South was a primary contributor to the reduction in our proprietary seed sales in the second quarter. We've maintained our full-year retail adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.65 million-$1.85 billion, with the midpoint of the range underpinned by four key items. Our downstream retail business delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.15 billion in the second quarter, up 2% from the prior year. our downstream retail business delivered adjusted ebitda of $1.15 billion in the second quarter up 2% from the prior year We saw strong crop input demand in the U.S. we saw strong crop input demand in the u.s Corn Belt, consistent with our previous view that a slower start to field activity in March would be made up in the second quarter. corn belt consistent with our previous view that a slower start to field activity in march would be made up in the second quarter This strength was partially offset by unfavorable crop protection product mix shifts, dry weather in Australia, and wet weather in the southern U.S. that impacted planted acres. this strength was partially offset by unfavorable crop protection product mix shifts dry weather in australia and wet weather in the southern u.s that impacted planted acres A loss of rice and cotton acres in the South was a primary contributor to the reduction in our proprietary seed sales in the second quarter. a loss of rice and cotton acres in the south was a primary contributor to the reduction in our proprietary seed sales in the second quarter We've maintained our full-year retail adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.65 million- $1.85 billion, with the midpoint of the range underpinned by four key items. we've maintained our full-year retail adjusted ebitda guidance of $1.65 million- $1.85 billion with the midpoint of the range underpinned by four key items First, as Ken mentioned, we saw strong North American crop input demand in July and anticipate higher crop nutritional and crop protection purchases in the third quarter compared to the prior year. Second, we assume an open fall season in North America and project fertilizer volumes up approximately 5% compared to last year, which had a shortened application window due to wet weather. Third, timely rains have improved winter crop planting prospects in Australia, and the outlook for crop input demand looks more favorable for the second half of the year. Finally, our margin improvement plan in Brazil remains on track, and we expect to generate increased year-over-year earnings through network optimization initiatives. First, as Ken mentioned, we saw strong North American crop input demand in July and anticipate higher crop nutritional and crop protection purchases in the third quarter compared to the prior year. first as ken mentioned we saw strong north american crop input demand in july and anticipate higher crop nutritional and crop protection purchases in the third quarter compared to the prior year Second, we assume an open fall season in North America and project fertilizer volumes up approximately 5% compared to last year, which had a shortened application window due to wet weather. second we assume an open fall season in north america and project fertilizer volumes up approximately 5% compared to last year which had a shortened application window due to wet weather Third, timely rains have improved winter crop planting prospects in Australia, and the outlook for crop input demand looks more favorable for the second half of the year. third timely rains have improved winter crop planting prospects in australia and the outlook for crop input demand looks more favorable for the second half of the year Finally, our margin improvement plan in Brazil remains on track, and we expect to generate increased year-over-year earnings through network optimization initiatives. finally our margin improvement plan in brazil remains on track and we expect to generate increased year-over-year earnings through network optimization initiatives To summarize, we delivered higher earnings and cash flow in the first half of the year, and we see clear momentum for growth on a full-year basis, supported by higher upstream fertilizer sales volumes, net selling prices, and downstream retail earnings. In terms of capital allocation, our priorities remain consistent. We're focused on initiatives that support the achievement of our 2026 performance targets, optimizing investments in working capital, and continuing to review non-core assets on our balance sheet, all of which we expect will enhance sources of cash flow over time. From a uses of cash perspective, we've committed capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and forge a narrow set of growth opportunities that have a strong fit with our strategy, are expected to provide returns in excess of our hurdle rates, and have a relatively low degree of execution risk. To summarize, we delivered higher earnings and cash flow in the first half of the year, and we see clear momentum for growth on a full-year basis, supported by higher upstream fertilizer sales volumes, net selling prices, and downstream retail earnings. to summarize we delivered higher earnings and cash flow in the first half of the year and we see clear momentum for growth on a full-year basis supported by higher upstream fertilizer sales volumes net selling prices and downstream retail earnings In terms of capital allocation, our priorities remain consistent. in terms of capital allocation our priorities remain consistent We're focused on initiatives that support the achievement of our 2026 performance targets, optimizing investments in working capital, and continuing to review non-core assets on our balance sheet, all of which we expect will enhance sources of cash flow over time. we're focused on initiatives that support the achievement of our 2026 performance targets optimizing investments in working capital and continuing to review non-core assets on our balance sheet all of which we expect will enhance sources of cash flow over time From a uses of cash perspective, we've committed capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and forge a narrow set of growth opportunities that have a strong fit with our strategy, are expected to provide returns in excess of our hurdle rates, and have a relatively low degree of execution risk. from a uses of cash perspective we've committed capital to sustain safe and reliable operations and forge a narrow set of growth opportunities that have a strong fit with our strategy are expected to provide returns in excess of our hurdle rates and have a relatively low degree of execution risk We have a long track record of providing a stable and growing dividend and intend on enhancing the return of capital to shareholders through more ratable share buybacks through the cycle. We remain disciplined in our approach to maintain a strong balance sheet and prioritize capital towards opportunities that we expect will deliver long-term growth in free cash flow per share. I'll now turn it back to Ken. We have a long track record of providing a stable and growing dividend and intend on enhancing the return of capital to shareholders through more ratable share buybacks through the cycle. we have a long track record of providing a stable and growing dividend and intend on enhancing the return of capital to shareholders through more ratable share buybacks through the cycle We remain disciplined in our approach to maintain a strong balance sheet and prioritize capital towards opportunities that we expect will deliver long-term growth in free cash flow per share. we remain disciplined in our approach to maintain a strong balance sheet and prioritize capital towards opportunities that we expect will deliver long-term growth in free cash flow per share I'll now turn it back to Ken. i'll now turn it back to ken
Speaker 14: Thanks, Mark. We have a constructive outlook for our business as global fertilizer market fundamentals have tightened in 2025, supported by strong demand, persistent supply disruptions, and project delays. We demonstrated strong operational performance and execution on our strategic priorities in the first half of the year, structurally improving Nutrien's earnings and free cash. We continue to strengthen our highly competitive asset base across the ag value chain and remain committed to disciplined capital allocation to maximize long-term value for our shareholders. We would now be happy to take your questions. Thanks, Mark. thanks mark We have a constructive outlook for our business as global fertilizer market fundamentals have tightened in 2025, supported by strong demand, persistent supply disruptions, and project delays. we have a constructive outlook for our business as global fertilizer market fundamentals have tightened in 2025 supported by strong demand persistent supply disruptions and project delays We demonstrated strong operational performance and execution on our strategic priorities in the first half of the year, structurally improving Nutrien's earnings and free cash. we demonstrated strong operational performance and execution on our strategic priorities in the first half of the year structurally improving nutrien's earnings and free cash We continue to strengthen our highly competitive asset base across the ag value chain and remain committed to disciplined capital allocation to maximize long-term value for our shareholders. we continue to strengthen our highly competitive asset base across the ag value chain and remain committed to disciplined capital allocation to maximize long-term value for our shareholders We would now be happy to take your questions. we would now be happy to take your questions
Speaker 15: Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the number one on your touch tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by the number two. If you are using a speaker phone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. The first question comes from Chris Parkinson from Wolfe Research. Please go ahead. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. thank you ladies and gentlemen We will now begin the question-and-answer session. we will now begin the question-and-answer session Should you have a question, please press star followed by the number one on your touch tone phone. should you have a question please press star followed by the number one on your touch tone phone You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. you will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by the number two. should you wish to decline from the polling process please press star followed by the number two If you are using a speaker phone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. if you are using a speaker phone please lift the handset before pressing any keys The first question comes from Chris Parkinson from Wolfe Research. the first question comes from chris parkinson from wolfe research Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 8: Thank you so much. In the beginning of the year, there was a little bit of a debate on potash supply being offline and the market and the price appreciation being more of a supply-driven market. Towards the end of the first half, it became more evident that it was more of a demand-driven market. It seems investors are still on edge given some belief that half-on-half supply is going to dramatically improve and basically curb upside to prices or even lead to declines. Can you just give us your updated thoughts on those specific dynamics, especially out of the FSU, and then how that sets up for the 2026 market? Thank you so much. Thank you so much. thank you so much In the beginning of the year, there was a little bit of a debate on potash supply being offline and the market and the price appreciation being more of a supply-driven market. in the beginning of the year there was a little bit of a debate on potash supply being offline and the market and the price appreciation being more of a supply-driven market Towards the end of the first half, it became more evident that it was more of a demand-driven market. towards the end of the first half it became more evident that it was more of a demand-driven market It seems investors are still on edge given some belief that half-on-half supply is going to dramatically improve and basically curb upside to prices or even lead to declines. it seems investors are still on edge given some belief that half-on-half supply is going to dramatically improve and basically curb upside to prices or even lead to declines Can you just give us your updated thoughts on those specific dynamics, especially out of the FSU, and then how that sets up for the 2026 market? can you just give us your updated thoughts on those specific dynamics especially out of the fsu and then how that sets up for the 2026 market Thank you so much. thank you so much
Speaker 14: Yeah, thanks, Chris. Yeah, so, you know, talking specifically about potash, if we, you know, looking globally, we're seeing very strong demand. We saw a return to trend level demand last year coming out of 2022 and 2023, and that's certainly the case this year where we've raised our expectations for the market to 73 million-5 million tons. That would be, you know, the strongest demand that we've seen in the market. We also have confidence that that potash is going to ground because we don't see inventories elevated really in any market around the world. Actually, in several cases, we see inventories below average levels. Part of that has to do with the fact that potash is still relatively affordable. It's, you know, the most affordable crop nutrient. Yeah, thanks, Chris. yeah thanks chris Yeah, so, you know, talking specifically about potash, if we, you know, looking globally, we're seeing very strong demand. yeah so you know talking specifically about potash if we you know looking globally we're seeing very strong demand We saw a return to trend level demand last year coming out of 2022 and 2023, and that's certainly the case this year where we've raised our expectations for the market to 73 million- 5 million tons. we saw a return to trend level demand last year coming out of 2022 and 2023 and that's certainly the case this year where we've raised our expectations for the market to 73 million- 5 million tons That would be, you know, the strongest demand that we've seen in the market. that would be you know the strongest demand that we've seen in the market We also have confidence that that potash is going to ground because we don't see inventories elevated really in any market around the world. we also have confidence that that potash is going to ground because we don't see inventories elevated really in any market around the world Actually, in several cases, we see inventories below average levels. actually in several cases we see inventories below average levels Part of that has to do with the fact that potash is still relatively affordable. part of that has to do with the fact that potash is still relatively affordable It's, you know, the most affordable crop nutrient. it's you know the most affordable crop nutrient As you say, with that strong demand, it is testing the ability of the market to supply both in terms of mine production, but also the supply chain as well. At the intersection of that very strong demand and what we're seeing on the supply side of the equation, which, and you asked about FSU tons, we don't see any material change in FSU tons coming to the potash market. At the intersection of those things, we see the strengthening that we've seen in the potash price, and we think we're in a good spot as it relates to the potash price. In the here and the now, we've had our summer fill program, which we had strong uptake. We're fully committed in North America through Q3 and are now placing tons in Q4 at our up $20. As you say, with that strong demand, it is testing the ability of the market to supply both in terms of mine production, but also the supply chain as well. as you say with that strong demand it is testing the ability of the market to supply both in terms of mine production but also the supply chain as well At the intersection of that very strong demand and what we're seeing on the supply side of the equation, which, and you asked about FSU tons, we don't see any material change in FSU tons coming to the potash market. at the intersection of that very strong demand and what we're seeing on the supply side of the equation which and you asked about fsu tons we don't see any material change in fsu tons coming to the potash market At the intersection of those things, we see the strengthening that we've seen in the potash price, and we think we're in a good spot as it relates to the potash price. at the intersection of those things we see the strengthening that we've seen in the potash price and we think we're in a good spot as it relates to the potash price In the here and the now, we've had our summer fill program, which we had strong uptake. in the here and the now we've had our summer fill program which we had strong uptake We're fully committed in North America through Q3 and are now placing tons in Q4 at our up $20. we're fully committed in north america through q3 and are now placing tons in q4 at our up $20 Similarly, in offshore markets, fully committed through Canpotex through Q3 and heavily committed now into Q4. Again, that, you know, very strong signposts that for 2025, our 73 million-75 million tons and our raised guidance, you know, that we have, we're constructive on those things. It is true that we're looking at North America now for the balance of the year. Obviously, with a very large corn crop that we're seeing in the U.S. and certainly a large crop in Brazil, we've seen some pressure on ag commodity prices and farmer grower margins. At the same time, here into the third quarter, we have seen strong field activity. We've seen good engagement and strong demand. Again, that's the evidence by our commitment levels in North America on potash. Certainly, we're seeing some strength into the fall in nitrogen as well. Your question was on potash. Similarly, in offshore markets, fully committed through Canpotex through Q3 and heavily committed now into Q4. similarly in offshore markets fully committed through canpotex through q3 and heavily committed now into q4 Again, that, you know, very strong signposts that for 2025, our 73 million- 75 million tons and our raised guidance, you know, that we have, we're constructive on those things. again that you know very strong signposts that for 2025 our 73 million- 75 million tons and our raised guidance you know that we have we're constructive on those things It is true that we're looking at North America now for the balance of the year. it is true that we're looking at north america now for the balance of the year Obviously, with a very large corn crop that we're seeing in the U.S. and certainly a large crop in Brazil, we've seen some pressure on ag commodity prices and farmer grower margins. obviously with a very large corn crop that we're seeing in the u.s and certainly a large crop in brazil we've seen some pressure on ag commodity prices and farmer grower margins At the same time, here into the third quarter, we have seen strong field activity. at the same time here into the third quarter we have seen strong field activity We've seen good engagement and strong demand. we've seen good engagement and strong demand Again, that's the evidence by our commitment levels in North America on potash. again that's the evidence by our commitment levels in north america on potash Certainly, we're seeing some strength into the fall in nitrogen as well. certainly we're seeing some strength into the fall in nitrogen as well Your question was on potash. your question was on potash To put it all together, Chris, we're constructive on 2025. Your question about handing into 2026, again, given where inventory levels are at, we don't see elevated inventory levels that, with potash being affordable, growers are going to be looking to replace the large amount of crop nutrients that are going to be pulled out of the soil with this big crop. To put it all together, Chris, we're constructive on 2025. to put it all together chris we're constructive on 2025 Your question about handing into 2026, again, given where inventory levels are at, we don't see elevated inventory levels that, with potash being affordable, growers are going to be looking to replace the large amount of crop nutrients that are going to be pulled out of the soil with this big crop. your question about handing into 2026 again given where inventory levels are at we don't see elevated inventory levels that with potash being affordable growers are going to be looking to replace the large amount of crop nutrients that are going to be pulled out of the soil with this big crop
Speaker 15: Your next question comes from Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Markets. your next question comes from andrew wong from rbc capital markets Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 21: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking that question. Maybe just touching a little bit on what you just touched on at the end of your answer there on affordability. What's your sense on farmer sentiment and health today, just given some of the recent softness there? How does that change in fertilizer affordability impact purchasing? Maybe more specific to just the dynamic between nitrogen, phosphate, and potash, because the prices for all three have moved in different directions, which we haven't really seen for a very, very long time. How does that impact farmer decisions on what fertilizers to apply? Thank you. Hey, good morning. hey good morning Thanks for taking that question. thanks for taking that question Maybe just touching a little bit on what you just touched on at the end of your answer there on affordability. maybe just touching a little bit on what you just touched on at the end of your answer there on affordability What's your sense on farmer sentiment and health today, just given some of the recent softness there? what's your sense on farmer sentiment and health today just given some of the recent softness there How does that change in fertilizer affordability impact purchasing? how does that change in fertilizer affordability impact purchasing Maybe more specific to just the dynamic between nitrogen, phosphate, and potash, because the prices for all three have moved in different directions, which we haven't really seen for a very, very long time. maybe more specific to just the dynamic between nitrogen phosphate and potash because the prices for all three have moved in different directions which we haven't really seen for a very very long time How does that impact farmer decisions on what fertilizers to apply? how does that impact farmer decisions on what fertilizers to apply Thank you. thank you
Speaker 14: Yeah, thanks, Andrew. Certainly, as I mentioned, we are seeing some pressure on ag commodity prices, corn, soybeans, and on grower margins. For the first half of the year, things kind of played out the way we'd expected. In the Corn Belt, in the Western U.S. and Canada, and Brazil, it was really the Southern U.S. where it was wet and Australia where it was dry, where we saw some pressure. We're feeling some of that now into the second quarter. That said, we're seeing strong uptake in the third quarter and field activity. In Australia, while it was a slow start given a dry beginning of the planting season for their winter crop, they've gotten some rain in July here, which now we've seen increased activity. I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk a little bit more about that. Yeah, thanks, Andrew. yeah thanks andrew Certainly, as I mentioned, we are seeing some pressure on ag commodity prices, corn, soybeans, and on grower margins. certainly as i mentioned we are seeing some pressure on ag commodity prices corn soybeans and on grower margins For the first half of the year, things kind of played out the way we'd expected. for the first half of the year things kind of played out the way we'd expected In the Corn Belt, in the Western U.S. and Canada, and Brazil, it was really the Southern U.S. where it was wet and Australia where it was dry, where we saw some pressure. in the corn belt in the western u.s and canada and brazil it was really the southern u.s where it was wet and australia where it was dry where we saw some pressure We're feeling some of that now into the second quarter. we're feeling some of that now into the second quarter That said, we're seeing strong uptake in the third quarter and field activity. that said we're seeing strong uptake in the third quarter and field activity In Australia, while it was a slow start given a dry beginning of the planting season for their winter crop, they've gotten some rain in July here, which now we've seen increased activity. in australia while it was a slow start given a dry beginning of the planting season for their winter crop they've gotten some rain in july here which now we've seen increased activity I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk a little bit more about that. i'll hand it over to jeff to talk a little bit more about that Maybe Chris, if you want to talk about those dynamics between N, P, and K on that sort of affordability discussion. Maybe Chris, if you want to talk about those dynamics between N, P, and K on that sort of affordability discussion. maybe chris if you want to talk about those dynamics between n p and k on that sort of affordability discussion
Speaker 10: Yeah, thanks, Ken. As you mentioned earlier, we continue to see very strong engagement from our growers as we go into the third quarter. If I look at the areas that were not affected by weather in the first half of the year, we would see most of those regions have performed basically in line with what we thought. You mentioned the Corn Belt, our Western U.S. business, Canada, and Brazil from that standpoint. You mentioned the Corn Belt specifically. We saw our tonnage up about 9% for the first half of the year. As I look going into the third quarter, we see growers investing dollars to protect their yields right now. When you get in a low-price environment, growers are going to really push for yields in that type of environment. We see that happening right now from a plant health standpoint and from a nutritional standpoint. Yeah, thanks, Ken. yeah thanks ken As you mentioned earlier, we continue to see very strong engagement from our growers as we go into the third quarter. as you mentioned earlier we continue to see very strong engagement from our growers as we go into the third quarter If I look at the areas that were not affected by weather in the first half of the year, we would see most of those regions have performed basically in line with what we thought. if i look at the areas that were not affected by weather in the first half of the year we would see most of those regions have performed basically in line with what we thought You mentioned the Corn Belt, our Western U.S. business, Canada, and Brazil from that standpoint. you mentioned the corn belt our western u.s business canada and brazil from that standpoint You mentioned the Corn Belt specifically. you mentioned the corn belt specifically We saw our tonnage up about 9% for the first half of the year. we saw our tonnage up about 9% for the first half of the year As I look going into the third quarter, we see growers investing dollars to protect their yields right now. as i look going into the third quarter we see growers investing dollars to protect their yields right now When you get in a low-price environment, growers are going to really push for yields in that type of environment. when you get in a low-price environment growers are going to really push for yields in that type of environment We see that happening right now from a plant health standpoint and from a nutritional standpoint. we see that happening right now from a plant health standpoint and from a nutritional standpoint
Speaker 1: Yeah, thanks, Jeff. And Andrew, as we think about the domestic market and that balance between NPK, as Ken mentioned, there is a big crop growing out there that's going to pull a lot of nutrients out of the ground. Our midstream customers are telling us they need to prepare for what they believe is going to be a good fall application season. This crop is developing well. We do believe that subject to weather, there'll be an open window there for growers to get out and apply fertilizer in the fall, especially in the Midwest. As Ken said, potash remains the most affordable nutrient. What our customers are telling us is they're preparing for a good fall across NPK. As you've noticed, these nutrients have moved in different directions a little bit in terms of pricing. We'll be watching how that's balanced in the fall. Yeah, thanks, Jeff. yeah thanks jeff And Andrew, as we think about the domestic market and that balance between NPK, as Ken mentioned, there is a big crop growing out there that's going to pull a lot of nutrients out of the ground. and andrew as we think about the domestic market and that balance between npk as ken mentioned there is a big crop growing out there that's going to pull a lot of nutrients out of the ground Our midstream customers are telling us they need to prepare for what they believe is going to be a good fall application season. our midstream customers are telling us they need to prepare for what they believe is going to be a good fall application season This crop is developing well. this crop is developing well We do believe that subject to weather, there'll be an open window there for growers to get out and apply fertilizer in the fall, especially in the Midwest. we do believe that subject to weather there'll be an open window there for growers to get out and apply fertilizer in the fall especially in the midwest As Ken said, potash remains the most affordable nutrient. as ken said potash remains the most affordable nutrient What our customers are telling us is they're preparing for a good fall across NPK. what our customers are telling us is they're preparing for a good fall across npk As you've noticed, these nutrients have moved in different directions a little bit in terms of pricing. as you've noticed these nutrients have moved in different directions a little bit in terms of pricing We'll be watching how that's balanced in the fall. we'll be watching how that's balanced in the fall Overall, we're getting ready and our customers are getting ready for a good fall application period. Overall, we're getting ready and our customers are getting ready for a good fall application period. overall we're getting ready and our customers are getting ready for a good fall application period
Speaker 15: Your next question comes from Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Joel Jackson from BMO Capital Markets. your next question comes from joel jackson from bmo capital markets Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 12: Hi, if I could just harp on the retail demand or fall demand question in North America a little bit more. I know that the biggest determinant, I think I know that the biggest determinant of a fall season is just how good the weather is, the open season comments you said. I know that. Are your comments just really about that, that it looks like the weather's going to be good and that's the largest determinant of a fall season, not necessarily affordability? That's my first question. The second question is just as you think about Brazil and retail, how confident are you that you'll be able to shift next year to getting back to a $50 million, $60 million, $70 million, $80 million EBITDA run rate versus maybe break even this year? What are the drivers to get there next? Hi, if I could just harp on the retail demand or fall demand question in North America a little bit more. hi if i could just harp on the retail demand or fall demand question in north america a little bit more I know that the biggest determinant, I think I know that the biggest determinant of a fall season is just how good the weather is, the open season comments you said. i know that the biggest determinant i think i know that the biggest determinant of a fall season is just how good the weather is the open season comments you said I know that. i know that Are your comments just really about that, that it looks like the weather's going to be good and that's the largest determinant of a fall season, not necessarily affordability? are your comments just really about that that it looks like the weather's going to be good and that's the largest determinant of a fall season not necessarily affordability That's my first question. that's my first question The second question is just as you think about Brazil and retail, how confident are you that you'll be able to shift next year to getting back to a $50 million, $60 million, $70 million, $80 million EBITDA run rate versus maybe break even this year? the second question is just as you think about brazil and retail how confident are you that you'll be able to shift next year to getting back to a $50 million $60 million $70 million $80 million ebitda run rate versus maybe break even this year What are the drivers to get there next? what are the drivers to get there next
Speaker 14: Thank you, Joel. I think you've actually articulated that well, that heading into the fall here, given the signposts that we're seeing and that we've talked about as it relates to good engagement so far in Q3, and certainly we saw that in July. The crop that's coming off is going to pull a lot of, again, fertilizer, soil nutrients out of the ground. The discussions that we're having with our customers and where inventory levels are at, that given an open application season, yes, we expect to have a decent fall, but that's dependent on weather. Exactly as you said, we're expecting fertilizer volumes to be up 5% from last year. You may recall that we had a compressed application season last year. Thank you, Joel. thank you joel I think you've actually articulated that well, that heading into the fall here, given the signposts that we're seeing and that we've talked about as it relates to good engagement so far in Q3, and certainly we saw that in July. i think you've actually articulated that well that heading into the fall here given the signposts that we're seeing and that we've talked about as it relates to good engagement so far in q3 and certainly we saw that in july The crop that's coming off is going to pull a lot of, again, fertilizer, soil nutrients out of the ground. the crop that's coming off is going to pull a lot of again fertilizer soil nutrients out of the ground The discussions that we're having with our customers and where inventory levels are at, that given an open application season, yes, we expect to have a decent fall, but that's dependent on weather. the discussions that we're having with our customers and where inventory levels are at that given an open application season yes we expect to have a decent fall but that's dependent on weather Exactly as you said, we're expecting fertilizer volumes to be up 5% from last year. exactly as you said we're expecting fertilizer volumes to be up 5% from last year You may recall that we had a compressed application season last year. you may recall that we had a compressed application season last year Where the crop is at today, and some being harvested as we speak, things are pointing to an open fall, and that's good for seeing volumes go to ground. As it relates to Brazil, what I'll say is our Brazil improvement plan is on track. We've talked about the decisions that we've made as it relates to shuttering of plants. We've reduced headcount. There is focus on collections, our focus on inventory management, and shuttering of blenders. All of those things now contributing for us to get to a sort of a break even, somewhat even perhaps positive EBITDA level here in 2025. We expect that trend to continue into 2026, where obviously the market needs to continue to cooperate, but we expect that we'll be in the positive next year. Where the crop is at today, and some being harvested as we speak, things are pointing to an open fall, and that's good for seeing volumes go to ground. where the crop is at today and some being harvested as we speak things are pointing to an open fall and that's good for seeing volumes go to ground As it relates to Brazil, what I'll say is our Brazil improvement plan is on track. as it relates to brazil what i'll say is our brazil improvement plan is on track We've talked about the decisions that we've made as it relates to shuttering of plants. we've talked about the decisions that we've made as it relates to shuttering of plants We've reduced headcount. we've reduced headcount There is focus on collections, our focus on inventory management, and shuttering of blenders. there is focus on collections our focus on inventory management and shuttering of blenders All of those things now contributing for us to get to a sort of a break even, somewhat even perhaps positive EBITDA level here in 2025. all of those things now contributing for us to get to a sort of a break even somewhat even perhaps positive ebitda level here in 2025 We expect that trend to continue into 2026, where obviously the market needs to continue to cooperate, but we expect that we'll be in the positive next year. we expect that trend to continue into 2026 where obviously the market needs to continue to cooperate but we expect that we'll be in the positive next year
Speaker 15: Your next question comes from Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank. your next question comes from ben isaacson from scotiabank Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 20: Thank you very much, and good morning. If we move past fall demand and start thinking about 2026, if corn and soy prices hold at about $4 and $10 respectively over the next little while, what are the risks to each of your segments? If farmer economics stay where they are in the Americas, how much downside do you think we have in which divisions? The reason why I'm asking is you talked about potash being affordable, but on the other hand, some would argue that potash is typically a lower ranked crop input. I'm just trying to triangulate that. Thank you. Thank you very much, and good morning. thank you very much and good morning If we move past fall demand and start thinking about 2026, if corn and soy prices hold at about $4 and $10 respectively over the next little while, what are the risks to each of your segments? if we move past fall demand and start thinking about 2026 if corn and soy prices hold at about $4 and $10 respectively over the next little while what are the risks to each of your segments If farmer economics stay where they are in the Americas, how much downside do you think we have in which divisions? if farmer economics stay where they are in the americas how much downside do you think we have in which divisions The reason why I'm asking is you talked about potash being affordable, but on the other hand, some would argue that potash is typically a lower ranked crop input. the reason why i'm asking is you talked about potash being affordable but on the other hand some would argue that potash is typically a lower ranked crop input I'm just trying to triangulate that. i'm just trying to triangulate that Thank you. thank you
Speaker 14: Yeah, thank you for the question, Ben. Yeah, it's true. I'm already starting to think about 2026. You know, growers will get this crop off and they'll be looking to get ready for next year and another big crop. We'll see where corn and soybean prices are at. If we go commodity to commodity, again, we see ongoing strength in potash demand. The way it's been growing, as I said earlier, on trend. Heading into 2026, we believe that to be true as well. It's just step change in demand in places like China, Southeast Asia, with 4,200 ringgit palm oil prices and a mandate, a palm oil clean fuel mandate of 40%, moving from 35%. Very strong demand in Southeast Asia. We look at Brazil, where last year they consumed 47 million tons of fertilizer. This year, it'll be 48 million tons of fertilizer. Yeah, thank you for the question, Ben. yeah thank you for the question ben Yeah, it's true. yeah it's true I'm already starting to think about 2026. i'm already starting to think about 2026 You know, growers will get this crop off and they'll be looking to get ready for next year and another big crop. you know growers will get this crop off and they'll be looking to get ready for next year and another big crop We'll see where corn and soybean prices are at. we'll see where corn and soybean prices are at If we go commodity to commodity, again, we see ongoing strength in potash demand. if we go commodity to commodity again we see ongoing strength in potash demand The way it's been growing, as I said earlier, on trend. the way it's been growing as i said earlier on trend Heading into 2026, we believe that to be true as well. heading into 2026 we believe that to be true as well It's just step change in demand in places like China, Southeast Asia, with 4,200 ringgit palm oil prices and a mandate, a palm oil clean fuel mandate of 40%, moving from 35%. it's just step change in demand in places like china southeast asia with 4,200 ringgit palm oil prices and a mandate a palm oil clean fuel mandate of 40% moving from 35% Very strong demand in Southeast Asia. very strong demand in southeast asia We look at Brazil, where last year they consumed 47 million tons of fertilizer. we look at brazil where last year they consumed 47 million tons of fertilizer This year, it'll be 48 million tons of fertilizer. this year it'll be 48 million tons of fertilizer We can go market to market. Of course, North America, again, we see a lot of crop nutrients coming out of the soil. On the demand side of the equation, we see strength. On the supply side, I won't call it challenged, but we have seen project delays, and we have seen the ability of the market to meet these demand levels. At that intersection, we see where prices are at, and prices are strong. Prices are at a good place right now because, as I said earlier, it's affordable. At the same time, we like to see volumes moving to our customers at these levels. We see that carrying into 2026. We can go market to market. we can go market to market Of course, North America, again, we see a lot of crop nutrients coming out of the soil. of course north america again we see a lot of crop nutrients coming out of the soil On the demand side of the equation, we see strength. on the demand side of the equation we see strength On the supply side, I won't call it challenged, but we have seen project delays, and we have seen the ability of the market to meet these demand levels. on the supply side i won't call it challenged but we have seen project delays and we have seen the ability of the market to meet these demand levels At that intersection, we see where prices are at, and prices are strong. at that intersection we see where prices are at and prices are strong Prices are at a good place right now because, as I said earlier, it's affordable. prices are at a good place right now because as i said earlier it's affordable At the same time, we like to see volumes moving to our customers at these levels. at the same time we like to see volumes moving to our customers at these levels We see that carrying into 2026. we see that carrying into 2026 On nitrogen, we've seen again strong demand, and the Indians having difficulty procuring urea, while at the same time Chinese limiting urea exports and certainly not getting back to sort of historic average levels out of that part of the world, which has meant strength in urea markets combined with some supply disruptions, certainly out of the Middle East. That would be true for ammonia, where we, again, we see a bit of seasonal weakness at the moment. Given some challenges, supply challenges that are rushing in the Middle East and some of the new project challenges that are rushing in the Gulf Coast, there's been supply issues there as well. We'll see about European gas pricing as compared to North America, where the delta is still $8 or $9. Again, we head into 2026, and we expect that those dynamics will persist. I think we can talk about phosphate. On nitrogen, we've seen again strong demand, and the Indians having difficulty procuring urea, while at the same time Chinese limiting urea exports and certainly not getting back to sort of historic average levels out of that part of the world, which has meant strength in urea markets combined with some supply disruptions, certainly out of the Middle East. on nitrogen we've seen again strong demand and the indians having difficulty procuring urea while at the same time chinese limiting urea exports and certainly not getting back to sort of historic average levels out of that part of the world which has meant strength in urea markets combined with some supply disruptions certainly out of the middle east That would be true for ammonia, where we, again, we see a bit of seasonal weakness at the moment. that would be true for ammonia where we again we see a bit of seasonal weakness at the moment Given some challenges, supply challenges that are rushing in the Middle East and some of the new project challenges that are rushing in the Gulf Coast, there's been supply issues there as well. given some challenges supply challenges that are rushing in the middle east and some of the new project challenges that are rushing in the gulf coast there's been supply issues there as well We'll see about European gas pricing as compared to North America, where the delta is still $8 or $9. we'll see about european gas pricing as compared to north america where the delta is still $8 or $9 Again, we head into 2026, and we expect that those dynamics will persist. again we head into 2026 and we expect that those dynamics will persist I think we can talk about phosphate. i think we can talk about phosphate Yes, phosphate prices are elevated. We're watching for a grower reaction to higher prices here into the fall and how that translates into 2026. Again, strong demand over phosphate and supply side issues. You can go nutrient to nutrient and heading out of 2025 and 2026. We'll see how the international grower is feeling. We'll see what happens here in North America. Overall, Ben, we feel constructive. Yes, phosphate prices are elevated. yes phosphate prices are elevated We're watching for a grower reaction to higher prices here into the fall and how that translates into 2026. we're watching for a grower reaction to higher prices here into the fall and how that translates into 2026 Again, strong demand over phosphate and supply side issues. again strong demand over phosphate and supply side issues You can go nutrient to nutrient and heading out of 2025 and 2026. you can go nutrient to nutrient and heading out of 2025 and 2026 We'll see how the international grower is feeling. we'll see how the international grower is feeling We'll see what happens here in North America. we'll see what happens here in north america Overall, Ben, we feel constructive. overall ben we feel constructive
Speaker 15: Your next question comes from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Vincent Andrews from Morgan Stanley. your next question comes from vincent andrews from morgan stanley Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 7: Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit about your own expectations for your potash production going into next year. It sounds like you're anticipating another year of shipment growth for the industry. The commentary for a while now has been that you're looking to take your traditional market share. What incremental capacity would you look to add into next year? Thank you, and good morning, everyone. thank you and good morning everyone I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit about your own expectations for your potash production going into next year. i'm wondering if you could talk a little bit about your own expectations for your potash production going into next year It sounds like you're anticipating another year of shipment growth for the industry. it sounds like you're anticipating another year of shipment growth for the industry The commentary for a while now has been that you're looking to take your traditional market share. the commentary for a while now has been that you're looking to take your traditional market share What incremental capacity would you look to add into next year? what incremental capacity would you look to add into next year
Speaker 14: Yeah, thanks, Vincent. This year, you've seen our guidance range, which we've upped to just over 14 million tons at the midpoint. We would say that we look at the way we've built out not just our mine production, but now our supply chains and ability to get to customers. We have 15 million tons of installed capacity, although not obviously staffing to those levels, because the lead time for staffing is such that we can watch the market and, as it evolves, bring on operators to continue to liberate tons. That will be the same philosophy for next year, where you can expect that as the market grows, and we've talked about this 2.5% average annual growth rates on trend, which is where we are today, that we will grow with the market and maintain market share. We will bring on those operators, and we will produce those tons. Yeah, thanks, Vincent. yeah thanks vincent This year, you've seen our guidance range, which we've upped to just over 14 million tons at the midpoint. this year you've seen our guidance range which we've upped to just over 14 million tons at the midpoint We would say that we look at the way we've built out not just our mine production, but now our supply chains and ability to get to customers. we would say that we look at the way we've built out not just our mine production but now our supply chains and ability to get to customers We have 15 million tons of installed capacity, although not obviously staffing to those levels, because the lead time for staffing is such that we can watch the market and, as it evolves, bring on operators to continue to liberate tons. we have 15 million tons of installed capacity although not obviously staffing to those levels because the lead time for staffing is such that we can watch the market and as it evolves bring on operators to continue to liberate tons That will be the same philosophy for next year, where you can expect that as the market grows, and we've talked about this 2.5% average annual growth rates on trend, which is where we are today, that we will grow with the market and maintain market share. that will be the same philosophy for next year where you can expect that as the market grows and we've talked about this 2.5% average annual growth rates on trend which is where we are today that we will grow with the market and maintain market share We will bring on those operators, and we will produce those tons. we will bring on those operators and we will produce those tons We have the flexibility with our six-mile network. We've made those investments in our supply chain to get to our customers. That gives us the flexibility to expand tons into this growing market. We have the flexibility with our six-mile network. we have the flexibility with our six-mile network We've made those investments in our supply chain to get to our customers. we've made those investments in our supply chain to get to our customers That gives us the flexibility to expand tons into this growing market. that gives us the flexibility to expand tons into this growing market
Speaker 15: Your next question comes from Steve Hansen from Raymond James. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Steve Hansen from Raymond James. your next question comes from steve hansen from raymond james Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 13: Oh, yes, good morning. Thanks for the time. Just a broader question about the portfolio. How do you feel about the portfolio from an optimization standpoint today? You've gone through a process of divesting a few non-core items here in the South, not recently. Is there more to do there on that front in terms of further optimizing or streamlining the core versus non-core? How do you view that as an opportunity? Where is it even a priority today? Thanks. Oh, yes, good morning. oh yes good morning Thanks for the time. thanks for the time Just a broader question about the portfolio. just a broader question about the portfolio How do you feel about the portfolio from an optimization standpoint today? how do you feel about the portfolio from an optimization standpoint today You've gone through a process of divesting a few non-core items here in the South, not recently. you've gone through a process of divesting a few non-core items here in the south not recently Is there more to do there on that front in terms of further optimizing or streamlining the core versus non-core? is there more to do there on that front in terms of further optimizing or streamlining the core versus non-core How do you view that as an opportunity? how do you view that as an opportunity Where is it even a priority today? where is it even a priority today Thanks. thanks
Speaker 14: Yeah, thanks for the question, Steve. I will say we're probably never done at looking at the portfolio and understanding how to optimize, you know, free cash flow per share and return on those assets. Absolutely true that we have done quite a bit of work on that front already, whether it's the process that we're in in Profertil right now, divesting of our shares in Sinofert, which we've talked about. We've actually gotten rid of some smaller immaterial assets, some in Italy. We've sold a blender in Brazil. I just provide those as examples of us just continuing to really be rigorous across the portfolio, insisting on performance. I'm not in a position today to talk about, you know, further portfolio changes and how we're going to manage that. Yeah, thanks for the question, Steve. yeah thanks for the question steve I will say we're probably never done at looking at the portfolio and understanding how to optimize, you know, free cash flow per share and return on those assets. i will say we're probably never done at looking at the portfolio and understanding how to optimize you know free cash flow per share and return on those assets Absolutely true that we have done quite a bit of work on that front already, whether it's the process that we're in in Profertil right now, divesting of our shares in Sinofert, which we've talked about. absolutely true that we have done quite a bit of work on that front already whether it's the process that we're in in profertil right now divesting of our shares in sinofert which we've talked about We've actually gotten rid of some smaller immaterial assets, some in Italy. we've actually gotten rid of some smaller immaterial assets some in italy We've sold a blender in Brazil. we've sold a blender in brazil I just provide those as examples of us just continuing to really be rigorous across the portfolio, insisting on performance. i just provide those as examples of us just continuing to really be rigorous across the portfolio insisting on performance I'm not in a position today to talk about, you know, further portfolio changes and how we're going to manage that. i'm not in a position today to talk about you know further portfolio changes and how we're going to manage that What I can say is, yes, we're absolutely looking at opportunities to continue to upgrade that portfolio in the name of free cash flow per share and a return on those assets. What I can say is, yes, we're absolutely looking at opportunities to continue to upgrade that portfolio in the name of free cash flow per share and a return on those assets. what i can say is yes we're absolutely looking at opportunities to continue to upgrade that portfolio in the name of free cash flow per share and a return on those assets
Speaker 13: Appreciate the time. Appreciate the time. appreciate the time
Speaker 15: Thank you. Your next question comes from Jeffrey Zekauskas from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Thank you. thank you Your next question comes from Jeffrey Zekauskas from JPMorgan. your next question comes from jeffrey zekauskas from jpmorgan Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 6: Thanks very much. Your gross profits per ton in North America in crop nutrients is, you know, kind of flat, even though, you know, the different commodities have performed pretty well. In general, in your retail segment, you seem to be doing a good job of cutting SG&A costs, but not so much making progress on the gross margin. Is that just weather? Are you satisfied with your general performance? What are the dynamics around gross profits at SG&A levels? Thanks very much. thanks very much Your gross profits per ton in North America in crop nutrients is, you know, kind of flat, even though, you know, the different commodities have performed pretty well. your gross profits per ton in north america in crop nutrients is you know kind of flat even though you know the different commodities have performed pretty well In general, in your retail segment, you seem to be doing a good job of cutting SG&A costs, but not so much making progress on the gross margin. in general in your retail segment you seem to be doing a good job of cutting sg&a costs but not so much making progress on the gross margin Is that just weather? is that just weather Are you satisfied with your general performance? are you satisfied with your general performance What are the dynamics around gross profits at SG&A levels? what are the dynamics around gross profits at sg&a levels
Speaker 14: Thank you for the question, Jeff. There are a number of moving parts there. We are pleased with our progress, certainly on the cost side of the equation. There is more to do there. We know that, and we expect carrying out through the balance of the year. That will be part of the story, ongoing focus and reductions in cost. Maybe I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk more about just margins on fertilizers and what we're seeing through the balance of the year. Thank you for the question, Jeff. thank you for the question jeff There are a number of moving parts there. there are a number of moving parts there We are pleased with our progress, certainly on the cost side of the equation. we are pleased with our progress certainly on the cost side of the equation There is more to do there. there is more to do there We know that, and we expect carrying out through the balance of the year. we know that and we expect carrying out through the balance of the year That will be part of the story, ongoing focus and reductions in cost. that will be part of the story ongoing focus and reductions in cost Maybe I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk more about just margins on fertilizers and what we're seeing through the balance of the year. maybe i'll hand it over to jeff to talk more about just margins on fertilizers and what we're seeing through the balance of the year
Speaker 10: Yeah, if I just walk through the segment from a margin rate perspective, our crop protection margins actually were surprisingly a bit better than we anticipated coming into this year through the first half. We think we see an opportunity to expand that a bit more in the second half. If I look at our margins on fertilizer, if you look at it from a global basis, we are flat year-over-year. That takes, you got to take into effect that we strategically made decisions in Brazil to lower our tonnage there and go to a different marketing, direct marketing concept versus going through those blenders that we've mentioned several times that we idle. That brings a lower margin profile on those tons. I think we're down, we strategically plan to be down about 200,000 tons through the half. That's basically what we're off from that standpoint. Yeah, if I just walk through the segment from a margin rate perspective, our crop protection margins actually were surprisingly a bit better than we anticipated coming into this year through the first half. yeah if i just walk through the segment from a margin rate perspective our crop protection margins actually were surprisingly a bit better than we anticipated coming into this year through the first half We think we see an opportunity to expand that a bit more in the second half. we think we see an opportunity to expand that a bit more in the second half If I look at our margins on fertilizer, if you look at it from a global basis, we are flat year-over-year. if i look at our margins on fertilizer if you look at it from a global basis we are flat year-over-year That takes, you got to take into effect that we strategically made decisions in Brazil to lower our tonnage there and go to a different marketing, direct marketing concept versus going through those blenders that we've mentioned several times that we idle. that takes you got to take into effect that we strategically made decisions in brazil to lower our tonnage there and go to a different marketing direct marketing concept versus going through those blenders that we've mentioned several times that we idle That brings a lower margin profile on those tons. that brings a lower margin profile on those tons I think we're down, we strategically plan to be down about 200,000 tons through the half. i think we're down we strategically plan to be down about 200,000 tons through the half That's basically what we're off from that standpoint. that's basically what we're off from that standpoint We are in a, you know, as we've talked about several times today, we're in a competitive environment. I'm pleased with where we are today. From a margin perspective, I think as we get an opportunity to get more of our nutritionals into our mix, which again, we've seen a very strong start in July, I think we'll see that margin per ton pick up a bit. On the seed side, our margin rates on seed are in line with our expectations as well. That was more of a volume story, but we're continuously working to try to get our margins up. We talk about the second half of the year and we talk about controlling our controls. One aspect of that is working to continue to expand our margins across all of our crop input segments. We are in a, you know, as we've talked about several times today, we're in a competitive environment. we are in a you know as we've talked about several times today we're in a competitive environment I'm pleased with where we are today. i'm pleased with where we are today From a margin perspective, I think as we get an opportunity to get more of our nutritionals into our mix, which again, we've seen a very strong start in July, I think we'll see that margin per ton pick up a bit. from a margin perspective i think as we get an opportunity to get more of our nutritionals into our mix which again we've seen a very strong start in july i think we'll see that margin per ton pick up a bit On the seed side, our margin rates on seed are in line with our expectations as well. on the seed side our margin rates on seed are in line with our expectations as well That was more of a volume story, but we're continuously working to try to get our margins up. that was more of a volume story but we're continuously working to try to get our margins up We talk about the second half of the year and we talk about controlling our controls. we talk about the second half of the year and we talk about controlling our controls One aspect of that is working to continue to expand our margins across all of our crop input segments. one aspect of that is working to continue to expand our margins across all of our crop input segments
Speaker 15: Your next question comes from Kristen Owen from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Kristen Owen from Oppenheimer. your next question comes from kristen owen from oppenheimer Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 2: Hi, good morning. Thank you for the question. Somewhat of a double click or follow-up on that prior one. Speaking specifically to this EBITDA bridge for the first half of the year, you've noted the more favorable environment in July. I'm just wondering if there's anything here in this bridge, whether it's crop protection products or maybe even on the expenses that shifts around in the back half of the year, anything that turns from a bad guy to a good guy, just how to think about that bridge for the back half. Thank you. Hi, good morning. hi good morning Thank you for the question. thank you for the question Somewhat of a double click or follow-up on that prior one. somewhat of a double click or follow-up on that prior one Speaking specifically to this EBITDA bridge for the first half of the year, you've noted the more favorable environment in July. speaking specifically to this ebitda bridge for the first half of the year you've noted the more favorable environment in july I'm just wondering if there's anything here in this bridge, whether it's crop protection products or maybe even on the expenses that shifts around in the back half of the year, anything that turns from a bad guy to a good guy, just how to think about that bridge for the back half. i'm just wondering if there's anything here in this bridge whether it's crop protection products or maybe even on the expenses that shifts around in the back half of the year anything that turns from a bad guy to a good guy just how to think about that bridge for the back half Thank you. thank you
Speaker 14: Yeah, certainly at the higher level, it's the things we've talked about, but I'll hand it over to Jeff for that double click. Yeah, certainly at the higher level, it's the things we've talked about, but I'll hand it over to Jeff for that double click. yeah certainly at the higher level it's the things we've talked about but i'll hand it over to jeff for that double click
Speaker 10: Yeah, for the second half of the year, and I think I mentioned it just a minute ago, controlling our controllable at the top of our list. We also think, again, that we have an opportunity to convert more acres on our foliar nutritionals, which we really like a lot. We like our portfolio as it relates to that. A heavy, heavy focus on the expense side of things. I think through the first half, we were able to take 6% out. We expect to continue with that effort in the second half of the year. Ken mentioned Australia. We've got some, you know, we had a very tough half from a weather perspective there. We see improvements there. We think that's going to bring us some opportunities on the proprietary side of the business as well as we go into the second half of the year. Yeah, for the second half of the year, and I think I mentioned it just a minute ago, controlling our controllable at the top of our list. yeah for the second half of the year and i think i mentioned it just a minute ago controlling our controllable at the top of our list We also think, again, that we have an opportunity to convert more acres on our foliar nutritionals, which we really like a lot. we also think again that we have an opportunity to convert more acres on our foliar nutritionals which we really like a lot We like our portfolio as it relates to that. we like our portfolio as it relates to that A heavy, heavy focus on the expense side of things. a heavy heavy focus on the expense side of things I think through the first half, we were able to take 6% out. i think through the first half we were able to take 6% out We expect to continue with that effort in the second half of the year. we expect to continue with that effort in the second half of the year Ken mentioned Australia. ken mentioned australia We've got some, you know, we had a very tough half from a weather perspective there. we've got some you know we had a very tough half from a weather perspective there We see improvements there. we see improvements there We think that's going to bring us some opportunities on the proprietary side of the business as well as we go into the second half of the year. we think that's going to bring us some opportunities on the proprietary side of the business as well as we go into the second half of the year
Speaker 15: Your next question comes from Edlain Rodriguez of Mizuho. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Edlain Rodriguez of Mizuho. your next question comes from edlain rodriguez of mizuho Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 11: Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just a quick question on potash, Ken. I think a comment I've heard somebody say is, what is wrong with potash? As you know, it's surprisingly the most affordable nutrient, lagging behind both phosphate and nitrogen. Seriously, do you prefer being in that position or do you want to close the price gap between potash and the other nutrients? Related to that, I think last week we saw a small decline in potash prices in Brazil. That's the first drop in almost a year. Does that mean anything to you or do you just think it's just a blip? Thank you. thank you Good morning, everyone. good morning everyone Just a quick question on potash, Ken. just a quick question on potash ken I think a comment I've heard somebody say is, what is wrong with potash? i think a comment i've heard somebody say is what is wrong with potash As you know, it's surprisingly the most affordable nutrient, lagging behind both phosphate and nitrogen. as you know it's surprisingly the most affordable nutrient lagging behind both phosphate and nitrogen Seriously, do you prefer being in that position or do you want to close the price gap between potash and the other nutrients? seriously do you prefer being in that position or do you want to close the price gap between potash and the other nutrients Related to that, I think last week we saw a small decline in potash prices in Brazil. related to that i think last week we saw a small decline in potash prices in brazil That's the first drop in almost a year. that's the first drop in almost a year Does that mean anything to you or do you just think it's just a blip? does that mean anything to you or do you just think it's just a blip
Speaker 14: Yeah, Edlain, thank you for the question. We are constructive on the potash market and we like when potash is affordable for growers and when it is, we see record potash demand and consumption. That's what's playing out today. Meeting the supply side of the equation, that intersection clears the market at what has been kind of 10-year average historic level potash prices. Those are healthy prices for us. We are constructive on that. Heading into the fall here, and we've talked about North America, but globally, whether it's Southeast Asia and palm plantations or whether it's step change in China, what we're seeing on the macro level in Brazil and North America, an open fall application season in North America, our volumes are moving, our mines are producing, our unit cost of production is going to be below $60. That's where we like to be. Yeah, Edlain, thank you for the question. yeah edlain thank you for the question We are constructive on the potash market and we like when potash is affordable for growers and when it is, we see record potash demand and consumption. we are constructive on the potash market and we like when potash is affordable for growers and when it is we see record potash demand and consumption That's what's playing out today. that's what's playing out today Meeting the supply side of the equation, that intersection clears the market at what has been kind of 10-year average historic level potash prices. meeting the supply side of the equation that intersection clears the market at what has been kind of 10-year average historic level potash prices Those are healthy prices for us. those are healthy prices for us We are constructive on that. we are constructive on that Heading into the fall here, and we've talked about North America, but globally, whether it's Southeast Asia and palm plantations or whether it's step change in China, what we're seeing on the macro level in Brazil and North America, an open fall application season in North America, our volumes are moving, our mines are producing, our unit cost of production is going to be below $60. heading into the fall here and we've talked about north america but globally whether it's southeast asia and palm plantations or whether it's step change in china what we're seeing on the macro level in brazil and north america an open fall application season in north america our volumes are moving our mines are producing our unit cost of production is going to be below $60 That's where we like to be. that's where we like to be In Brazil, they're getting ready to plant soybeans here in September. There's been a bit of a seasonal lull in Brazil. That's true. We've seen a bit of softening in the price, but we expect there's going to be a lot of volume moving again and going to ground as they plant soybeans in that part of the world. Overall, I certainly appreciate the question, but no, we are constructive on where the potash market is today. In Brazil, they're getting ready to plant soybeans here in September. in brazil they're getting ready to plant soybeans here in september There's been a bit of a seasonal lull in Brazil. there's been a bit of a seasonal lull in brazil That's true. that's true We've seen a bit of softening in the price, but we expect there's going to be a lot of volume moving again and going to ground as they plant soybeans in that part of the world. we've seen a bit of softening in the price but we expect there's going to be a lot of volume moving again and going to ground as they plant soybeans in that part of the world Overall, I certainly appreciate the question, but no, we are constructive on where the potash market is today. overall i certainly appreciate the question but no we are constructive on where the potash market is today
Speaker 15: Your next question comes from Ariana Milin of CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Ariana Milin of CIBC Capital Markets. your next question comes from ariana milin of cibc capital markets Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 3: Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. With relatively better pricing for ammonia over upgraded nitrogen products in North America, do you see the potential for a shift to greater ammonia use as a source of nitrogen in the fall? Good morning, and thank you for taking my question. good morning and thank you for taking my question With relatively better pricing for ammonia over upgraded nitrogen products in North America, do you see the potential for a shift to greater ammonia use as a source of nitrogen in the fall? with relatively better pricing for ammonia over upgraded nitrogen products in north america do you see the potential for a shift to greater ammonia use as a source of nitrogen in the fall
Speaker 14: Yeah, thanks for the question, Ariana. Chris, do you want to just explain that a bit? Yeah, thanks for the question, Ariana. yeah thanks for the question ariana Chris, do you want to just explain that a bit? chris do you want to just explain that a bit
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, good morning, Ariana. Thanks for the question. As we look at that fall, it'll be dependent on how growers are thinking about what they're going to plant next year. If they're going to put ammonia down in the fall, that would mean a commitment to planting corn. We'll wait and see. Sometimes these growers make this decision while they're on the combine and what they're thinking about for next year. We don't see a material shift in terms of the nitrogen product going down this fall. We think that will be at about average levels. I would say that we are seeing low inventory levels of UAN right now, and we are thinking that there's going to be some strength in that price as we look towards the fall season. Yeah, no, good morning, Ariana. yeah no good morning ariana Thanks for the question. thanks for the question As we look at that fall, it'll be dependent on how growers are thinking about what they're going to plant next year. as we look at that fall it'll be dependent on how growers are thinking about what they're going to plant next year If they're going to put ammonia down in the fall, that would mean a commitment to planting corn. if they're going to put ammonia down in the fall that would mean a commitment to planting corn We'll wait and see. we'll wait and see Sometimes these growers make this decision while they're on the combine and what they're thinking about for next year. sometimes these growers make this decision while they're on the combine and what they're thinking about for next year We don't see a material shift in terms of the nitrogen product going down this fall. we don't see a material shift in terms of the nitrogen product going down this fall We think that will be at about average levels. we think that will be at about average levels I would say that we are seeing low inventory levels of UAN right now, and we are thinking that there's going to be some strength in that price as we look towards the fall season. i would say that we are seeing low inventory levels of uan right now and we are thinking that there's going to be some strength in that price as we look towards the fall season
Speaker 15: Your next question comes from Matthew DeYoe of Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Matthew DeYoe of Bank of America. your next question comes from matthew deyoe of bank of america Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 17: Morning. I apologize if I missed this earlier, but retail is obviously pretty weak through 1H, and maybe that's just cotton in the South or whatever. As you think about, or can you provide a little clarity on price volumes there? As we set up for next year, assuming a more, if it is the South, right, if weather is more cooperative, do you expect to get that volume back pretty well, I guess? I don't know. I'll leave it there. Morning. morning I apologize if I missed this earlier, but retail is obviously pretty weak through 1H, and maybe that's just cotton in the South or whatever. i apologize if i missed this earlier but retail is obviously pretty weak through 1h and maybe that's just cotton in the south or whatever As you think about, or can you provide a little clarity on price volumes there? as you think about or can you provide a little clarity on price volumes there As we set up for next year, assuming a more, if it is the South, right, if weather is more cooperative, do you expect to get that volume back pretty well, I guess? as we set up for next year assuming a more if it is the south right if weather is more cooperative do you expect to get that volume back pretty well i guess I don't know. i don't know I'll leave it there. i'll leave it there
Speaker 14: Yeah, no, Matt. Thanks for the question. I think you've said it. We did see some crop mix shifts in that part of the world. Jeff, do you want to just dive into that a little bit? Yeah, no, Matt. yeah no matt Thanks for the question. thanks for the question I think you've said it. i think you've said it We did see some crop mix shifts in that part of the world. we did see some crop mix shifts in that part of the world Jeff, do you want to just dive into that a little bit? jeff do you want to just dive into that a little bit
Speaker 10: Yeah, thanks, Ken. The seed revenue is 100% around two factors. First, we saw significant Prevent Plant in our southern region. Our southern region is our largest share of seed in North America, and when you have something like Prevent Plant, it can have a dramatic effect on seed revenue. Those acres actually did not get planted. I would expect 100% of that to return next year, forecasting that we would have a spring not unlike what we had this last year, which in that area was one of the wettest springs in the last 150 years. We also saw crop mix changes, and that's primarily around cotton. Due to some of the economics around cotton and across the South, we saw a lot of cotton acres. If you're in Texas, a lot of cotton acres converted to sorghum or milo, which is much less significant from a revenue perspective. Yeah, thanks, Ken. yeah thanks ken The seed revenue is 100% around two factors. the seed revenue is 100% around two factors First, we saw significant Prevent Plant in our southern region. first we saw significant prevent plant in our southern region Our southern region is our largest share of seed in North America, and when you have something like Prevent Plant, it can have a dramatic effect on seed revenue. our southern region is our largest share of seed in north america and when you have something like prevent plant it can have a dramatic effect on seed revenue Those acres actually did not get planted. those acres actually did not get planted I would expect 100% of that to return next year, forecasting that we would have a spring not unlike what we had this last year, which in that area was one of the wettest springs in the last 150 years. i would expect 100% of that to return next year forecasting that we would have a spring not unlike what we had this last year which in that area was one of the wettest springs in the last 150 years We also saw crop mix changes, and that's primarily around cotton. we also saw crop mix changes and that's primarily around cotton Due to some of the economics around cotton and across the South, we saw a lot of cotton acres. due to some of the economics around cotton and across the south we saw a lot of cotton acres If you're in Texas, a lot of cotton acres converted to sorghum or milo, which is much less significant from a revenue perspective. if you're in texas a lot of cotton acres converted to sorghum or milo which is much less significant from a revenue perspective We'll have to see year-over-year what cotton commodity pricing does. I would anticipate in Texas, we would see some of those acres return, but it's way too early to predict that right now. We'll have to see year-over-year what cotton commodity pricing does. we'll have to see year-over-year what cotton commodity pricing does I would anticipate in Texas, we would see some of those acres return, but it's way too early to predict that right now. i would anticipate in texas we would see some of those acres return but it's way too early to predict that right now
Speaker 15: Your next question comes from David Simmons of BNP Paribas. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from David Simmons of BNP Paribas. your next question comes from david simmons of bnp paribas Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 19: Hi, good afternoon. I've just come back on Jeff's question. If I look at the average selling price in the crop nutrient segment of retail, it's up 2% year on year, whilst into the third quarter, the potash NOLA benchmark, for example, is up 20%+ year on year. Is there a catch-up pricing benefit in the second half for retail? Hi, good afternoon. hi good afternoon I've just come back on Jeff's question. i've just come back on jeff's question If I look at the average selling price in the crop nutrient segment of retail, it's up 2% year on year, whilst into the third quarter, the potash NOLA benchmark, for example, is up 20% + year on year. if i look at the average selling price in the crop nutrient segment of retail it's up 2% year on year whilst into the third quarter the potash nola benchmark for example is up 20% + year on year Is there a catch-up pricing benefit in the second half for retail? is there a catch-up pricing benefit in the second half for retail
Speaker 14: Justin, do you want to take that? Justin, do you want to take that? justin do you want to take that
Speaker 10: Yeah, and some of that is reflected from a standpoint of, I've said this many times, with as many tons as we move to these markets, we have to layer in our purchasing. We would have, for the tail end of the season, been buying into a market that was much higher priced from that standpoint. That affects margins as well from that standpoint. We feel like we're well positioned going into the fall. We don't think we're overly aggressive from that standpoint. I'm going to allude back to many of the things that were said here today. We talked a lot about having a really large corn crop. We also have a really large soybean crop, which removes a lot of nutrients as well. We do see some opportunities in the back half of the year. We talked about it. Yeah, and some of that is reflected from a standpoint of, I've said this many times, with as many tons as we move to these markets, we have to layer in our purchasing. yeah and some of that is reflected from a standpoint of i've said this many times with as many tons as we move to these markets we have to layer in our purchasing We would have, for the tail end of the season, been buying into a market that was much higher priced from that standpoint. we would have for the tail end of the season been buying into a market that was much higher priced from that standpoint That affects margins as well from that standpoint. that affects margins as well from that standpoint We feel like we're well positioned going into the fall. we feel like we're well positioned going into the fall We don't think we're overly aggressive from that standpoint. we don't think we're overly aggressive from that standpoint I'm going to allude back to many of the things that were said here today. i'm going to allude back to many of the things that were said here today We talked a lot about having a really large corn crop. we talked a lot about having a really large corn crop We also have a really large soybean crop, which removes a lot of nutrients as well. we also have a really large soybean crop which removes a lot of nutrients as well We do see some opportunities in the back half of the year. we do see some opportunities in the back half of the year We talked about it. we talked about it If we get an open fall, then we see an opportunity to move about 5% more volume into that market. We hope we can do it as well by expanding some margin. If we get an open fall, then we see an opportunity to move about 5% more volume into that market. if we get an open fall then we see an opportunity to move about 5% more volume into that market We hope we can do it as well by expanding some margin. we hope we can do it as well by expanding some margin
Speaker 15: Your next question comes from Lucas Beaumont of UBS. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Lucas Beaumont of UBS. your next question comes from lucas beaumont of ubs Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 9: Thank you. Good morning. Just going back to potash, you've mentioned that you have seen sort of some challenges in the market meeting the demand level this year from a supply perspective. I think just looking to 2026, if we get another year of normal demand growth, where do you kind of see the supply coming from? If you think the market's going to struggle to meet that and you want to maybe flex up and take more than your 20% share, when would you kind of need to push the button on those staffing decisions you mentioned? Thanks. Thank you. thank you Good morning. good morning Just going back to potash, you've mentioned that you have seen sort of some challenges in the market meeting the demand level this year from a supply perspective. just going back to potash you've mentioned that you have seen sort of some challenges in the market meeting the demand level this year from a supply perspective I think just looking to 2026, if we get another year of normal demand growth, where do you kind of see the supply coming from? i think just looking to 2026 if we get another year of normal demand growth where do you kind of see the supply coming from If you think the market's going to struggle to meet that and you want to maybe flex up and take more than your 20% share, when would you kind of need to push the button on those staffing decisions you mentioned? if you think the market's going to struggle to meet that and you want to maybe flex up and take more than your 20% share when would you kind of need to push the button on those staffing decisions you mentioned Thanks. thanks
Speaker 14: Yeah, thanks for the question, Lucas. It continues to be the case that we've seen those FSU tons come back into the market. We've seen some new tons coming out of Laos, although the rate of growth out of that part of the world has slowed. We've seen, as we mentioned earlier, project delays that certainly are going to impact next year and beyond. Strong demand meeting supply, we'd kind of call the market in balance at the moment or close to being in balance and heading into next year. We have a few other producers that can probably on the margins expand production a bit, and certainly we would be one of those as well, Lucas. Yeah, thanks for the question, Lucas. yeah thanks for the question lucas It continues to be the case that we've seen those FSU tons come back into the market. it continues to be the case that we've seen those fsu tons come back into the market We've seen some new tons coming out of Laos, although the rate of growth out of that part of the world has slowed. we've seen some new tons coming out of laos although the rate of growth out of that part of the world has slowed We've seen, as we mentioned earlier, project delays that certainly are going to impact next year and beyond. we've seen as we mentioned earlier project delays that certainly are going to impact next year and beyond Strong demand meeting supply, we'd kind of call the market in balance at the moment or close to being in balance and heading into next year. strong demand meeting supply we'd kind of call the market in balance at the moment or close to being in balance and heading into next year We have a few other producers that can probably on the margins expand production a bit, and certainly we would be one of those as well, Lucas. we have a few other producers that can probably on the margins expand production a bit and certainly we would be one of those as well lucas I would say with what we're intending for next year, which, as I mentioned earlier, is a strategy to maintain market share, grow with the market as it grows, meet the needs of our customers who are growing at that rate as well, and bring on people to produce accordingly. That's our plan. We expect to be in a strong market next year given the demand fundamentals and the fact that the supply is right around that demand level, will be right around that demand level, and certainly as project delays continue to persist. I would say with what we're intending for next year, which, as I mentioned earlier, is a strategy to maintain market share, grow with the market as it grows, meet the needs of our customers who are growing at that rate as well, and bring on people to produce accordingly. i would say with what we're intending for next year which as i mentioned earlier is a strategy to maintain market share grow with the market as it grows meet the needs of our customers who are growing at that rate as well and bring on people to produce accordingly That's our plan. that's our plan We expect to be in a strong market next year given the demand fundamentals and the fact that the supply is right around that demand level, will be right around that demand level, and certainly as project delays continue to persist. we expect to be in a strong market next year given the demand fundamentals and the fact that the supply is right around that demand level will be right around that demand level and certainly as project delays continue to persist
Speaker 15: Your next question comes from Ben Theurer of Barclays. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Ben Theurer of Barclays. your next question comes from ben theurer of barclays Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 4: Good morning, and thank you very much for taking my question. I wanted to follow up real quick on capital allocation as we look into it. You had a significant improvement in terms of free cash flow generation versus a year ago, but at the same time, it feels like there's a little bit of a slowdown on the share repurchase program. I just want to understand how you think about these purchases in regards to just dividend versus investments and share repurchases. Thank you. Good morning, and thank you very much for taking my question. good morning and thank you very much for taking my question I wanted to follow up real quick on capital allocation as we look into it. i wanted to follow up real quick on capital allocation as we look into it You had a significant improvement in terms of free cash flow generation versus a year ago, but at the same time, it feels like there's a little bit of a slowdown on the share repurchase program. you had a significant improvement in terms of free cash flow generation versus a year ago but at the same time it feels like there's a little bit of a slowdown on the share repurchase program I just want to understand how you think about these purchases in regards to just dividend versus investments and share repurchases. i just want to understand how you think about these purchases in regards to just dividend versus investments and share repurchases Thank you. thank you
Speaker 14: Thank you for the question, Ben. No slowdown on share repurchases. We've been buying at about the $45 million per month level. I think for the balance of the year, that's a good way to think about it as the year has unfolded for us and certainly as we continue to be quite constructive on how it's unfolding. With respect to the broader philosophy around capital allocation, dividends, and share repurchases, I'll hand it over to Mark to provide more detail. Thank you for the question, Ben. thank you for the question ben No slowdown on share repurchases. no slowdown on share repurchases We've been buying at about the $45 million per month level. we've been buying at about the $45 million per month level I think for the balance of the year, that's a good way to think about it as the year has unfolded for us and certainly as we continue to be quite constructive on how it's unfolding. i think for the balance of the year that's a good way to think about it as the year has unfolded for us and certainly as we continue to be quite constructive on how it's unfolding With respect to the broader philosophy around capital allocation, dividends, and share repurchases, I'll hand it over to Mark to provide more detail. with respect to the broader philosophy around capital allocation dividends and share repurchases i'll hand it over to mark to provide more detail
Speaker 18: Yeah, thanks, Ken. Good morning, Ben. Maybe just stepping back a bit and reiterate a couple of comments that both Ken and I have made this morning. I think first and foremost, continue to focus on generating increasing structural sources of cash for the business. We continue to see strong operational performance, and that was evident here in the first half for us. Growing underlying earnings across the entire business in line with our investor day targets, and we feel like we're making good progress on that. As Ken has also mentioned, and I have as well, continuing to look at a really rigorous approach to working capital optimization and shedding assets in the portfolio that don't generate the types of returns that we want. Over time, we think all of those things will grow cash. Yeah, thanks, Ken. yeah thanks ken Good morning, Ben. good morning ben Maybe just stepping back a bit and reiterate a couple of comments that both Ken and I have made this morning. maybe just stepping back a bit and reiterate a couple of comments that both ken and i have made this morning I think first and foremost, continue to focus on generating increasing structural sources of cash for the business. i think first and foremost continue to focus on generating increasing structural sources of cash for the business We continue to see strong operational performance, and that was evident here in the first half for us. we continue to see strong operational performance and that was evident here in the first half for us Growing underlying earnings across the entire business in line with our investor day targets, and we feel like we're making good progress on that. growing underlying earnings across the entire business in line with our investor day targets and we feel like we're making good progress on that As Ken has also mentioned, and I have as well, continuing to look at a really rigorous approach to working capital optimization and shedding assets in the portfolio that don't generate the types of returns that we want. as ken has also mentioned and i have as well continuing to look at a really rigorous approach to working capital optimization and shedding assets in the portfolio that don't generate the types of returns that we want Over time, we think all of those things will grow cash. over time we think all of those things will grow cash More specifically to your question on capital allocation, our priorities are consistent and they haven't really changed. If you look at our CapEx profile of the year, $2 billion-$2.1 billion with $400 million-$500 million of that focused on a very narrow set of growth priorities that we continue to execute against. More specifically with respect to return of capital, as Ken said, the philosophy around share repurchases really over the past year has been ratable buybacks over time. We want that to be something that is a staple in our capital allocation framework over time and through cycles. As Ken mentioned, that roughly $45 million per month run rate is something that we see as being sustainable and balanced through the remainder of the year. You mentioned the dividend. With respect to the dividend, the philosophy has also not changed there. More specifically to your question on capital allocation, our priorities are consistent and they haven't really changed. more specifically to your question on capital allocation our priorities are consistent and they haven't really changed If you look at our CapEx profile of the year, $2 billion - $2.1 billion with $400 million - $500 million of that focused on a very narrow set of growth priorities that we continue to execute against. if you look at our capex profile of the year $2 billion - $2.1 billion with $400 million - $500 million of that focused on a very narrow set of growth priorities that we continue to execute against More specifically with respect to return of capital, as Ken said, the philosophy around share repurchases really over the past year has been ratable buybacks over time. more specifically with respect to return of capital as ken said the philosophy around share repurchases really over the past year has been ratable buybacks over time We want that to be something that is a staple in our capital allocation framework over time and through cycles. we want that to be something that is a staple in our capital allocation framework over time and through cycles As Ken mentioned, that roughly $45 million per month run rate is something that we see as being sustainable and balanced through the remainder of the year. as ken mentioned that roughly $45 million per month run rate is something that we see as being sustainable and balanced through the remainder of the year You mentioned the dividend. you mentioned the dividend With respect to the dividend, the philosophy has also not changed there. with respect to the dividend the philosophy has also not changed there We like the absolute level of the dividend from a cash outlay standpoint, and we believe that as we continue to repurchase the stock of the company, we'll be able to grow dividends per share over time, just as we have this year. Amongst all of that, we believe we can continue to strengthen the balance sheet. It continues to be just a disciplined, focused, and balanced approach on capital allocation. We like the absolute level of the dividend from a cash outlay standpoint, and we believe that as we continue to repurchase the stock of the company, we'll be able to grow dividends per share over time, just as we have this year. we like the absolute level of the dividend from a cash outlay standpoint and we believe that as we continue to repurchase the stock of the company we'll be able to grow dividends per share over time just as we have this year Amongst all of that, we believe we can continue to strengthen the balance sheet. amongst all of that we believe we can continue to strengthen the balance sheet It continues to be just a disciplined, focused, and balanced approach on capital allocation. it continues to be just a disciplined focused and balanced approach on capital allocation
Speaker 15: Your next question comes from Richard Garchitorena of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Richard Garchitorena of Wells Fargo. your next question comes from richard garchitorena of wells fargo Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 5: Great, thank you. Maybe just wanted to touch on the cost progress that you've made, roughly almost $200 million in cost savings expected this year. Should we expect additional buckets? Do you see further upside potential in that target? Are you thinking about additional cost savings in 2026? Thanks. Great, thank you. great thank you Maybe just wanted to touch on the cost progress that you've made, roughly almost $200 million in cost savings expected this year. maybe just wanted to touch on the cost progress that you've made roughly almost $200 million in cost savings expected this year Should we expect additional buckets? should we expect additional buckets Do you see further upside potential in that target? do you see further upside potential in that target Are you thinking about additional cost savings in 2026? are you thinking about additional cost savings in 2026 Thanks. thanks
Speaker 14: Thank you for the question, Richard. Yes, we had set ourselves a $200 million cost reduction target by 2026, and it was really targeting SG&A. Thus far we would say we're going to certainly achieve that in 2025, ahead of schedule. About half of that coming out of our retail business and about half of it coming out of our corporate SG&A. Is there more to be done? The answer to that is also yes. Maybe I'll hand it over to Mark just to provide a little more color. Thank you for the question, Richard. thank you for the question richard Yes, we had set ourselves a $200 million cost reduction target by 2026, and it was really targeting SG&A. yes we had set ourselves a $200 million cost reduction target by 2026 and it was really targeting sg&a Thus far we would say we're going to certainly achieve that in 2025, ahead of schedule. thus far we would say we're going to certainly achieve that in 2025 ahead of schedule About half of that coming out of our retail business and about half of it coming out of our corporate SG&A. about half of that coming out of our retail business and about half of it coming out of our corporate sg&a Is there more to be done? is there more to be done The answer to that is also yes. the answer to that is also yes Maybe I'll hand it over to Mark just to provide a little more color. maybe i'll hand it over to mark just to provide a little more color
Speaker 18: Sure. Thanks, Ken. Good morning. As Ken said, we're beginning to see those expense rationalization activities really show through in our results, as we showed in our earnings presentation. If you look first half over first half, you can see over $100 million or just over $100 million in expense down versus last year in the first half. I think there's tangible evidence that the efforts that we've made are showing through. As Ken said, that's really been focused about 50% in the retail business across the rationalization activities we've undertaken in Brazil, closures of underperforming locations in North America, regional consolidation of storefronts, and optimization in Australia. In our corporate functions, just continuing to be disciplined about simplifying and focusing the organization. That's resulted in SG&A opportunities. As we continue to move forward, as Ken said, we're quite bullish. Sure. sure Thanks, Ken. thanks ken Good morning. good morning As Ken said, we're beginning to see those expense rationalization activities really show through in our results, as we showed in our earnings presentation. as ken said we're beginning to see those expense rationalization activities really show through in our results as we showed in our earnings presentation If you look first half over first half, you can see over $100 million or just over $100 million in expense down versus last year in the first half. if you look first half over first half you can see over $100 million or just over $100 million in expense down versus last year in the first half I think there's tangible evidence that the efforts that we've made are showing through. i think there's tangible evidence that the efforts that we've made are showing through As Ken said, that's really been focused about 50% in the retail business across the rationalization activities we've undertaken in Brazil, closures of underperforming locations in North America, regional consolidation of storefronts, and optimization in Australia. as ken said that's really been focused about 50% in the retail business across the rationalization activities we've undertaken in brazil closures of underperforming locations in north america regional consolidation of storefronts and optimization in australia In our corporate functions, just continuing to be disciplined about simplifying and focusing the organization. in our corporate functions just continuing to be disciplined about simplifying and focusing the organization That's resulted in SG&A opportunities. that's resulted in sg&a opportunities As we continue to move forward, as Ken said, we're quite bullish. as we continue to move forward as ken said we're quite bullish There's going to be more opportunities for us as we continue to explore opportunities, and we'll have more to say on that in the future. There's going to be more opportunities for us as we continue to explore opportunities, and we'll have more to say on that in the future. there's going to be more opportunities for us as we continue to explore opportunities and we'll have more to say on that in the future
Speaker 15: There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Jeff Holzman for closing remarks. Please go ahead. There are no further questions at this time. there are no further questions at this time I will now turn the call back to Jeff Holzman for closing remarks. i will now turn the call back to jeff holzman for closing remarks Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 16: Thank you for joining us today. The Investor Relations team is available if you have any follow-up questions. Have a great day. Thank you for joining us today. thank you for joining us today The Investor Relations team is available if you have any follow-up questions. the investor relations team is available if you have any follow-up questions Have a great day. have a great day