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EQUITY RESIDENTIAL — Call Transcript 2025
Aug 5, 2025
Good day and welcome to the Equity Residential 2Q 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. MartIn McKenna. Please go ahead. Good morning and thanks for joining us to discuss Equity Residential second quarter 2025 results. Our featured speakers today are Mark Parrell, our President and CEO, Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer, and Bob Garechana, our Chief Financial Officer. Alec Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer, is here with us as well for the Q&A. Our earnings release is posted in the investor section of equityapartments.com. Please be advised that certain matters discussed during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements that become untrue because of subsequent events. Now I will turn the call over to Mark Parrell. Thank you, Marty. Good morning and thanks for joining us today. I will lead us off with some top of the house commentary. Then Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer, will provide color on our second quarter performance as well as what he is seeing in the markets today and an update on some of the initiatives we have going on. We will then turn the call over to Bob Garechana in his last call as our CFO before he takes over as our Chief Investment Officer, and Bob will provide some color on our guidance changes. Then we'll go ahead and take your questions. Alec Brackenridge, our soon to retire CIO, is here with us for the Q&A. Our second quarter results and guidance continue to reflect the sustained demand and excellent resident retention that we are seeing across our markets. We see this demand as being supported by nearly full employment in the country as a whole, with the overall unemployment rate being only 4.2%, though the pace of job growth is certainly slowing. The unemployment rate for our key demographic, the college educated, remains even lower at 2.7%. We're also seeing continued high retention rates as more residents choose to renew with us. Fewer and fewer residents are moving out to buy homes as we and other operators often prioritize occupancy and renewal rate management over new lease growth in a world that is more uncertain than usual for residents and landlords. Also, we continue to see the forward setup for our business as outstanding and see above trend revenue growth in future years as likely given the large apartment supply decline, the expensive and unavailable single family owned housing market, and societal trends favoring rentership. As we talked about at our Investor Day, earlier this year, our shareholders benefit from our unique and diversified portfolio. We have a differentiated exposure from our competitors that includes a collection of assets across the urban centers of many coastal markets that gives us a distinct opportunity to outperform as improving conditions, particularly continuing declines in new supply and improvements in quality of life in these urban centers, drive faster cash flow growth. To illustrate that further, we are already seeing strong revenue results in places like New York City and downtown San Francisco where supply has already abated. With more supply declines on the way, we are optimistic our results can continue to be above trend in these areas. Across our markets, we look for a balance of both urban and suburban assets that capture the changing needs of our primary renter demographic, putting this portfolio on top of the most efficient overall operating platform in the space. When you take into account overhead, capital expenditures, and operating expenses, you have a vehicle that should outperform in the near term and over the long term because of its focus on higher earning renters across a broad array of markets. Finally, while good job growth is important to all apartment markets, it is especially important to drive absorption in oversupplied markets. We expect our portfolio, with its tilt towards lower supplied markets and submarkets and relatively modest amount of development properties in lease up, to exhibit more resilience if job growth continues to wane. On the transactions front in the quarter, we continued to build out our presence in Atlanta with the acquisition of an eight property portfolio in suburban submarkets. This is a market we have been favoring in our recent acquisition activity as we expect supply here to decline more quickly than in other Sun Belt markets. We now have 22 properties spread throughout targeted submarkets within the Atlanta metro area. These eight new store properties plus seven assets that were acquired last year complement and round out our current six property same store portfolio that is focused more in Midtown and in closer in submarkets. We have also gained powerful economies of scale in Atlanta where we can efficiently share personnel across a broad portfolio and take advantage of our new scale in contracting for local services like landscaping, as we do in other markets where we have a large number of properties. We continue to look for opportunities to add to our portfolios in our expansion markets and certain suburban submarkets of our established markets. The transaction market is not as active as we had hoped it would be at the beginning of the year. As a result, pricing has become very competitive with cap rates for desirable assets we wish to acquire, often in the high 4% range, significantly lower than the cost of debt, even for us, with our highly rated balance sheet. As you saw in our release, we have lowered our acquisitions expectations for the full year to $1 billion from $1.5 billion and expect to match sales and acquisitions this year. Nonetheless, we certainly have the ability to accelerate our acquisitions should attractively priced opportunities arrive. Before I turn it over to Michael, I want to thank Alec Brackenridge for his leadership, for his friendship, for all his hard work over the years creating value for our shareholders. Alec will work with us assisting in the transition as we finish out the year. We're also excited for Bob and know he will thrive in his new Chief Investment Officer role. Finally, I want to welcome Brett McLeod to Equity Residential. Brett will take over as our Chief Financial Officer in a few days and we are very excited to add his deep financial experience and new perspectives to our team. With that, I'll turn the call over to Michael Manelis. Thanks, Mark, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Our second quarter results exceeded our expectations from the beginning of the year and were about in line with our expectations going into the leasing season. The financial health of our residents remains strong. The average household income of our residents who moved in with us in the second quarter is up 8.5% from the same quarter last year and rent as a percent of income remains low at 20%. In addition, as Mark mentioned, we are not losing residents to home purchase and in fact that number sat at 7.2% in the quarter, which is among the lowest levels we have seen. Our blended rent growth of 3% was about where we thought it would be, driven by strong renewal rate of 5.2% with 60% of the residents renewing in the quarter. Our intense focus on customer satisfaction and stronger than expected results from our centralized renewal process have driven this performance. Our physical occupancy was very good at 96.6%. New lease rate was slightly negative in the quarter, which reflects that while there is good demand, it is a bit price sensitive and concession use continues in a number of our markets, particularly those with heavy supply. As we look to the markets, New York City continues to benefit from high occupancy, actually the highest in our portfolio, and very little competitive new supply, leading to some of the best blended rent growth in our portfolio. With demand being driven by a steady job market, we continue to expect this market, where we have a predominantly urban portfolio, to be one of our best performing markets in 2025. Boston has had steady demand leading to good occupancy and a strong renewal rate. The market is feeling some of the pressure and uncertainty from actual and potential cuts to the education and research sector. As a result, the job market seems a little softer here and foreign inbound demand was slightly below historical norms. Our urban assets continue to outperform our suburban ones as the new supply is more focused in the suburbs. Our bias here will continue to be occupancy focused and the second quarter was already up 90 basis points sequentially. Washington D.C. has been an excellent performer throughout the first half of the year with high occupancy and good retention and really strong rent growth. Not surprisingly, we have recently seen a slowing in the market likely due to the uncertainty around jobs given the cuts by the administration. While the government is not the only employer in the market, it clearly has an influence on the overall feel and confidence levels. Currently, our pressure is being felt in the District and areas of Northern Virginia. Velocity slowed a bit in July, but demand recovered quickly as we backed off on rate, which is allowing us to maintain strong occupancy. Despite the recent softening, the Washington D.C. market remains on track to be one of our strongest revenue growth markets in 2025 with a very significant drop off in supply expected in 2026. Moving out west, the real standout market for this year is San Francisco. We talked about the potential for recovery in this market at our investor day and are very pleased that this recovery is coming to fruition at a pace even beyond what we expected. Our blended rate growth at 5.8% here is the best in our portfolio, driven by strong new lease and renewal increases with sequential gains in occupancy. This is a great example of where we saw a recovery in full force and drove very robust seasonal price acceleration, including the pullback on concessions. Tech jobs are steady with a lot of continued AI focus in the market. During the second quarter, we observed very favorable migration patterns with 8% more move-ins coming to us from outside the MSA and 5% more move-ins coming to us from out of state. We are optimistic that these migration patterns continue, especially in the downtown submarket as the city is really starting to feel the positive impact from the focus on quality of life issues. Competitive supply in the market at less than 1% of inventory is very manageable, and we believe this will be our best performing market this year. In Seattle, the improvements continue with the market working past the quality of life issues that have been a challenge. Seattle is seeing a slow and steady job growth from the tech firms, leading to modest growth in office-using jobs, which is also being positively impacted by the return to office policies of big employers like Amazon and Starbucks. As expected, supply pressure was felt in the City of Seattle and Redmond submarkets, which impacted some of our new lease pricing power. The good news is that most of the concentrated deliveries are behind us, and this is likely to be a temporary condition. Concessions are still in wide use as the market seems to have become accustomed to them over the past few years. Overall, solid employment and an easier comp for us in the second half of the year as Seattle continues to be one of the top performing markets for us this year with a great setup in 2026. Los Angeles continues to face challenges and underperform our pretty modest beginning of the year expectations. Lackluster job growth driven by a pretty weak entertainment sector, along with the quality of life issues, are keeping pressure on demand. Our West LA and suburban portfolios are doing better than our assets located in Korea and Mid Wilshire submarkets. On the hopeful side, a very large tax incentive should spur local employment by driving the return of filming and production to the market. We have good occupancy overall, but it appears that our rents peaked in early June. This is a good example of a market where our focus is on retention and capturing good renewal rates while maintaining occupancy, as overall pricing power was softer than seasonal norms. Orange County and San Diego are performing in line with our expectations for the year. New supply and modest job growth are keeping pressure on rents after a number of years of strong performance. Finally, in our expansion markets, Denver continues to feel the impact from modest job growth and high levels of new supply, particularly in the downtown market. Concession use is heavy in the overall market. We have a good pace on our leasing volume, but a fair bit of price sensitivity and deal shopping is impacting new lease growth and making us prioritize retention and renewal rates. Our Atlanta portfolio is performing in line with our expectations for the year. As a reminder, our same store portfolio here is just seven assets and is primarily located in more urban locations like Midtown. Unlike our newer suburban acquisitions, the urban areas are experiencing a lot of new supply and concession use, but it appears that this submarket found a bottom as we have had a few months of stability with early signs of potential improving conditions. Our non same store properties, which I mentioned are more suburban focused, will join the same store set next year and are performing at or slightly better than our underwritten expectations and clearly better than our urban Atlanta properties. We feel good about Dallas. Demand is strong due to better than average job growth in the market, but concessions are plentiful as the market absorbs supply, particularly in select submarkets similar to Atlanta. Our newer acquisitions, which are in less supply concentrated submarkets, will join the 2026 same store set and tend to face less direct supply pressure and are performing better with fewer concessions and stronger occupancies. Switching to Innovation and Automation Updates, the opportunity to apply artificial intelligence in our business is really exciting. Our AI leasing application pilots have reduced overall application completion time by over 50% while significantly improving fraud detection, resident underwriting, and user satisfaction. Given this success, we are accelerating the rollout, aiming for full deployment by end of year, which is about a quarter earlier than the original timeframe. Additionally, our new delinquency management AI will be fully deployed by the end of this month, and so far we can see that consistent engagement with customers improves overall payment behaviors. All of these automation and conversational AI initiatives are set up to dramatically improve both our customer experience and operational efficiency. As we think about the third quarter, we expect blended rates to begin to moderate as usual, with strong retention and occupancy continuing against a backdrop of slightly lower achieved renewal and new lease rates, which combined will result in an expected blended rate growth range of 2.2%-2.8% for the quarter. With our occupancy holding steady and resident turnover continuing to track at record low levels, we are well positioned for a solid back half of the year, especially as supply headwinds continue to subside. As I think about our setup for 2026, we expect to have normal embedded growth, continued strong renewal performance, and occupancy against a backdrop of much less competitive new supply pressure. At this time, I will turn the call over to Bob to walk us through the financial results and guidance changes. Thanks Michael. As Michael mentioned, I'll walk through our guidance changes before opening it up for Q&A, starting with same store revenue. The 15 basis point increase in the midpoint of our same store revenue guidance is driven primarily by better than anticipated retention and improved occupancy growth, which Michael already discussed. As we discussed at the beginning of the year, other income growth and bad debt improvement remain back half loaded and thus far are right on track with our original guidance expectations. We continue to expect improvements in those areas of 70 basis points and 20 basis points, respectively. Turning to same store expenses, we've revised the midpoint of our expense guidance range down by 25 basis points. This improvement is driven by better than anticipated real estate tax, insurance, and payroll growth, offset in part by higher utilities expenses. As we noted in the release, utilities this year are suffering from both a difficult comparable period and higher commodity prices, along with elevated water and sewer charges. Those elevated water and sewer charges came from higher usage in Southern California as we dealt with mitigating wildfire risk earlier in the year. Outside of those categories, most of the other categories remain on plan. As a reminder before we move on from expenses, about 50 basis points of our total expense growth in 2025 is related to our bulk Wi-Fi rollout and is included in repairs and maintenance. This program is accretive to NOI growth given its other income contribution but is an outsized driver this year to expense growth. With these revenue and expense improvements, we are increasing our same store NOI growth midpoint by 30 basis points, which is in the top half of the prior range. Before discussing FFO, I want to remind everyone of the expected cadence of same store revenue growth for the remainder of 2025. We continue to expect improvement in quarter over quarter same store revenue growth in the last two quarters of the year. This is driven by the compounding effect of positive blended rates and leasing activity from the first half of the year, strong continued physical occupancy, and back half loaded improvement from both bad debt and other income like I just discussed. Finally, we're increasing the midpoint of our NFFO range by $0.05 to the top end of our prior range. Page 2 of the release provides a.Detailed reconciliation of that change, but let me provide a little more color here. $0.02 of the improvement is coming from the same store adjustments I just described. $0.01 is coming from better performance in our lease-up portfolio, which is largely due to outsize performance in our suburban San Francisco lease-up and our suburban New York City lease-up, while other communities are largely in line with expectations. $0.02 of lower transaction activity NOI is reflected as well from our changes in our transaction activity guidance from $1.5 billion in acquisitions down to $1 billion. Performance from communities acquired thus far is in line with our underwriting and our original guidance. We also have $0.03 of lower interest expense due in part to that change in transaction volume as I described, and also slightly better refinancing rates. Finally, we have $0.01 of improvement from other items including overhead. One final note before I turn it over to the operator: in the second quarter, we attractively refinanced our 2025 maturity. With the change in transaction activity guidance, we are not including any further debt issuance in our guidance given that we currently expect to match fund our $1 billion in acquisition activity with $1 billion in dispositions. Our next meaningful debt maturity is not until November of 2026. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator. Thank you. If you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star, one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow signal. To repeat, press star, one to ask a question. We'll pause for just a moment. We'll go first to Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. Thanks. Good morning. I realize we're a little bit out from the full 2026 guidance, but as you just sort of think about the pluses and minuses as you look out over the next 12-18 months, is the supply picture coming down able to offset maybe a slowing job market and what re the puts and takes as you think about growth into next year? Hey Steve, this is Michael. I think I gave you a little bit of color just in the prepared remarks, like the setup that we see. I think for us, starting the year with a pretty normal kind of embedded growth, maintaining strong retention. If you think about what we just saw with some of the job reforecast and those numbers, I think for us the most important thing for next year is really how much less competitive supply we have. By competitive supply, I'm looking at the proximity of new supply within a one or three mile radius of our assets. We just have so much less new supply that's going to be needed to be absorbed in the markets. I think at this point, any level of job growth that we see next year is just going to add pricing power, what we believe is a pretty solid setup for 2026. Okay, thanks. Mark, maybe just bigger picture. You talked about your enthusiasm for San Francisco and New York. I'm not asking you to second guess your decision about moving into the expansion markets, but do you— Do you rethink sort of the mix of the portfolio? How do you maybe think longer term about the contribution from expansion markets versus the established markets, and are you likely to lean more into the established markets, or do you still feel like you need to get to that 80%-20% or 75%-25% next? Yeah, thanks for that question, Steve. Appreciate that. The goal here is, as we said at the Investor Day, to build that kind of all-weather portfolio around our higher earning customer. Thinking about supply and demand, risks and opportunities, and of course regulation and resilience. Nothing that's happened has changed our perspective. Our view is that our portfolio is super well positioned for at least the next year and a half, given, as Michael said, the lack of supply and even the declines in supply. We're already in a low supply situation in San Francisco and next year is even better, and New York feels great. Those markets are doing their job. Meantime, these expansion markets which we chose, Denver, Dallas, Atlanta, and Austin, are suffering from supply. As we said in Investor Day, we knew that would happen. They are good job growth markets and we think they will pick up. I will make a note though, maybe with the exception of Atlanta, we don't think next year is necessarily the year that all these markets are going to turn around that we're in. We think the Sun Belt recovery is much more about absorption than about delivery dates and that the lease up will take some time. To kind of sum it up, Steve, we think having that balance between suburban, urban, and most of our markets, New York will always be a little more urban, markets like Dallas always be more suburban, sticking near this higher end earning customer and have in balance because there'll be a day when these demand markets are a good place for us to be and we'll have some of that in our kind of recipe of portfolio or kind of, you know, what we're composed of and then we'll continue to have this drive from these urban centers. Again, I feel really good about where we are. We could have bought a lot more in these Sun Belt markets earlier and we'd be hurting right now. I think taking our time, being thoughtful, getting close to that 20% goal. That goal is not one we're afraid to vary from if there's opportunity elsewhere. We'll keep moving along here, but we don't have a timeline we need to meet. Thank you. Thank you. We'll take our next question from Jana Galan with Bank of America. Thank you. Good morning, Michael, thank you so much for the very thorough market overview. Can we just go back to Equity Residential's use of concessions this spring and summer leasing season relative to last year's and trying to understand if this kind of helps the setup for next spring on the renewal side? Yeah. Hey, it's Michael. I guess I'll just frame up the concession use right now, which is on a cash basis. We use more concessions in the second quarter than we originally expected. You know, overall we averaged about seven days of concessions per move-in, which is down from the first quarter, but still about a day more than what we would have expected. The increase is driven by continued targeted liens into occupancy, along with some of the kind of more supply-impacted submarkets just having greater concession use than we originally thought. I think right now our view is that we're going to continue to see elevated concession use in the expansion markets. A few of the Los Angeles submarkets, hopefully Seattle and San Francisco, are going to continue to see this reduction in the pullback that we've seen. If you think about the setup going into spring and even peak leasing season next year, if we start the year well positioned and we have, like I just mentioned to Steve, any bit of job growth, we really should see some kind of good rent acceleration against the backdrop of having all these folks from this year getting those concessions should drive some of that kind of net effective increase. Thank you. On greater Washington D.C. specifically, is there any slight differentiation between the District and Northern Virginia, or right now are they pretty similar in terms of what you're seeing in terms of demand? Yeah, I think I would say for us it's more systemic. The District, clearly we have, I think, 12 properties right now. We're feeling a little bit of that softness there. When I look into the Northern Virginia submarket, it's really kind of isolated pockets in the RBC corridor that you're feeling some of that pressure. D.C. had just such strong momentum in the first half of the year. It really wasn't until we got into that late June and July period where we started to feel a little bit of this softening or a pause. Like I said in the prepared remarks, the minute we pulled back on some of that rate acceleration, we saw that demand come back and we're able to recapture some of that occupancy. I think for us, this remains kind of one of these watch markets, right? We get a lot of headlines. You got a lot of the kind of government layoffs that will kick into gear here in September, and we just need to keep our eyes on it. Thank you. We'll take our next question from Eric Wolfe with Citi. Hey, thanks. You discussed some of the dynamics for the setup for 2026, to the extent that renewals have performed a bit better than expected compared to new leases, is it setting up for a situatio where your gain to lease is a bit bigger than normal at year end and thus could impact 2026 or is that not the right way to think about it? Hey Eric, it's Michael. Right now, I guess I would tell you the portfolio has a loss to lease of about 2.6%. Kind of did what you thought. We started the year at a moderate gain. As rent acceleration kicked in, it flipped us into the loss. Right now the loss is probably 50-100 basis points lower than what you would expect, and that's really just from the dampening effect of July not getting up to that peak level. As I think about the rest of the year, we do expect normal rent deceleration to occur in the third quarter and even into the fourth quarter. At this point I wouldn't be surprised to see us back into a moderate gain. I don't think we're going to see anything that's really well outside the realm of norm. That's helpful. I believe you said a. ago you said that you don't really see the Sun Belt recovering that much next year. I guess I just wanted to dig into that further because it does seem absorption has been very strong in those markets supply's coming down next year. If I think back to some of your acquisitions, I thought might be.I thought year two is expected to see some pretty big rent gains. I was just trying to understand if that sort of view on the Sun Belt was a change and what drove that change. Hey Eric, it's Alec. It's really a property by property, submarket by submarket consideration. There are certainly pockets. They're seeing very, very little supply. A lot of the properties that we bought that are entering same store are in that condition. I think that we will hit our pro formas. We're on track to do that now and we do expect to see recovery. There are certainly other markets, you know, Austin is an example where we have three properties, but other markets like Nashville and Charlotte and Phoenix that just have this overhang of units that still need to get absorbed. When we talk about the Sun Belt more broadly, it seems to us that the challenges are going to extend for in the 2027 in some cases. Got it. Thank you. Moving next to Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho Securities. Hi, this is Mike on for Haendel at Mizuho. My question is, can you talk more about your near term expectations and operating strategy for Washington D.C. and Los Angeles markets into the back half of the year? How much do you expect concessions to pick up from here? Yeah. Hey Mike, this is Michael. I think in the Washington D.C. market we are going to have a bias right now towards maintaining the occupancy and what we see, concession use right now in the market, it is very isolated. There's still a lot of supply in Washington D.C. right now, but it's a dramatic drop off in 2026. I think for us we're going to watch just the level of competitiveness overall with the concession use in D.C. I do expect we'll see some kick into gear as we get into that shoulder period. Specific to L.A,, I think it really does vary as to which submarket we're talking about. It was a great surprise for us to see some momentum in West L.A. As I said in my prepared remark, we haven't seen that in many quarters. I don't anticipate we're going to see a lot of concession use there. I think clearly in the Downtown, Koreatown, Mid-Wilshire, you're going to see concessions continue in full force probably for the balance of the year. Thanks for that. Just one follow up,Where are you, you know, in terms of July real time leasing data, where are you sending renewals out for August? July, August, September, yeah. For the next several months, all of the renewal quotes have been sent out, and we sent out anywhere just slightly over 6%. I think right now we would expect to achieve increases somewhere around 4.25%-4.5% on a net effective basis. We have a lot of great insights. We have a centralized renewal process right now, a lot of confidence in this renewal performance. Typically, this is the time of the year that we tend to lean into retention and tend to negotiate a little bit more as we enter into the shoulder period. At this point, we expect that's how we're going to operate the portfolio. Thank you. We'll go next to John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. Morning. I'm not sure if you addressed this, but is there an update on your blended lease guidance for the year? I know you provided third quarter, but just how does the year shake out with seasonality coming up? Yeah. Hey John, this is Michael. Again, we gave the guidance range for the third quarter being 2.2%-2.8%, so a midpoint of 2.5%. That mirrors our year-to-date blended performance. I think sitting here today, I would tell you that at the beginning of the year, we gave a blended guidance range of 2%-3%, so a midpoint of 2.5%. I do think we're going to see some deceleration in the fourth quarter. Sitting here today, I would say we're probably pointed to that bottom half, anywhere between a 2%-2.5% for the full year blend now. Like 20, 30 basis points off. Okay, great. Thank you. My second question is on cap rates you're seeing in the Sun Belt versus your more established markets. Do you anticipate more attractive opportunities, especially in markets like Washington D.C. and New York where there could be some political uncertainty? Hey, John, it's Alec. Yeah, we're looking at all of our markets for opportunities, but we still want to balance the portfolio out. It would have to be a compelling opportunity for us to increase in a place that we already have a really good exposure. That could happen. I haven't seen it yet. You know, cap rates are around a 5% in most places and in some of the markets, you know, 4.75%, and particularly some of the expansion markets where people are perceiving that there will be more recovery. As I just said, some of these markets, we're just not so sure about the speed of that. We're out looking for opportunity every day. We would match that with dispositions that we also have in the market. Thank you. We'll go next to Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Thanks and good morning. Alec, best in retirement. Bob, best in CIO and welcome aboard, Brett. Two questions here. Mark, you mentioned the quality of life improvement that's really helped in San Francisco and Seattle. Obviously, in New York City, we're debating going the opposite way. At the same time, Adams' policies on rents with the regulated units would be a boost to market rate rents if you freeze the regulated part of the market. As you guys look at your New York exposure, do you view the rent freezes as a net positive and more than offsetting quality of life concerns, or are you more concerned about potential quality of life versus the ability to gain on market rents? Alex, thanks for those good wishes to the team. Yeah, we're thinking about all those things. Let me just talk about how we're thinking about the election and there is a fair bit of time to go until November. You know, Mr. Mamdani has spoken frequently about needing to increase the housing supply in New York for New Yorkers at all income levels. We have been working through the trade associations to just remind him and his staff about how important the private sector can be in meeting that goal. I mean, as a New Yorker, you know that public private partnerships like the 421a program and the Office to Residential Conversion programs have been really helpful in adding units to the market. We are also trying to get across the point that to the extent you freeze rents or do other things that are anti housing, you're going to discourage capital in New York. That's going to mean that fewer units are preserved and fewer units are created. We're having those kinds of conversations again. There's a while to go to the elections. Just to remind everyone, a lot of the power on rent control and a lot of other big issues rests in Albany, not in the mayor's office. The amount of things that can be done is a little bit more limited than maybe the campaign rhetoric. We have a relatively small percentage of our New York portfolio that would be subject to any changes in the rent stabilization increase rate. Yeah. You know, here in Chicago we have a new mayor and, you know, quality of life here has actually improved over the last year. We think that the dialogue has shifted and we think people of all political stripes are interested in improvements in quality of life and balancing both justice and personal security. We're hopeful, Alec, that that continues and New York keeps making good progress there and we'll keep pushing with the potential mayor's office to discuss the benefits of housing supply versus overregulation. Okay, the second question is, you know, you talked about Washington D.C. and Dallas, but Boston with the foreign students, clearly Boston's big college town. So just wondering if there's been any. Change in foreign student appetite given, you know, they are a part, an outsized part of that renter market. Hey, Alec, it's Michael. We've been watching, you know, first students is a pretty low % of our move-ins overall in the company. They represent about 3% of our occupied units. We still have about another month to really track all of the inbound student activity sitting here today. As a snapshot for Boston, it does appear that the student inbound activity through the end of July is a little bit below normal, a little bit below where we were at the end of July of 2024. Inside that, we do see a little bit of softening in the foreign inbound migration as well. These are very small quantities, though, so I don't know if I would read too much into it yet. Like I said, we still have a month to go until we really close out kind of that student season. We'll go next to Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Generally it seems like the demand is there, but I guess I was just kind of wondering what do you think it would take to see a little bit more pricing power. Michael, it's Michael. At this time of the year, it's not very common to all of a sudden see acceleration into pricing power. I think clearly we would need to see some consumer confidence improve in many of the markets and any kind of acceleration in job growth. That being said, we are going to go into a period where we do have easier comps in many of our major markets, and we have a period of time where we're bumping up against less and less supply pressure. That could be a kind of mitigating factor to normal deceleration trends. At this time, I don't anticipate us seeing kind of acceleration. Got it. As a follow up, have you seen any impact on San Francisco ban of algorithmic pricing? Has that had any impact yet? Thanks. Yeah, so I think I heard the question right. It was algorithmic pricing. In San Francisco, there are various proposals in all sorts of jurisdictions on this. First off, we do obviously operate in full compliance with all these rules, and it's not a big issue for us. We do use across the portfolio LRO, where we're allowed to. Generally speaking, LRO, which is our yield management tool, is just one tool in the toolbox. We use a lot of different means to price our units, and it just doesn't matter a great deal to us if we can't use LRO going forward. I will say, though, it seems like these sort of regulatory efforts are more of us attacking a symptom of the problem of a housing shortage. It isn't algorithmic pricing that makes rents go up and down. Dallas has declining rents and there's plenty of people using algorithmic pricing there. It's the dynamic between supply and demand. The markets that add supply are going to have less of this kind of outsized rent growth. I feel like we need to educate policymakers that while it may feel emotionally rewarding to ban algorithmic pricing, that isn't what's causing rents to go up, it's the supply and demand dynamics in these markets. We'll work with our trade associations to do that, but it isn't going to make a great deal of difference to us and how we price our units. Thank you very much. Next to Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley. Hey, great. Thanks for the time and all the best to you, Alec, going forward, I just wanted to ask about there have been a few articles recently about AI and the impacts on, call it, entry level jobs and, you know, I think both in types of employment that you would think would be disrupted by AI, but also other types of jobs as well, focusing on an entry level demographic. I know that's disproportionately a renter kind of demographic. Wondering if you've seen anything in your portfolio, demand wise, that can maybe see if AI is having a real impact here or maybe these articles are a little bit off base? Yeah, thanks. That's a really interesting question and I think we're in the early innings of determining the impact of AI. I think as you heard from Michael Manelis' remarks, we do see the impact of AI and demand in San Francisco and that's why it's good for us to be levered to these tech hubs as well as to markets that are maybe more broadly diversified like Los Angeles or Atlanta. We do see some benefit to the portfolio already from the money and the hiring being done to get these big large models moving and proving. I think it's a little early to tell whether AI will affect, you know, entry level lawyer employment and other people that do occupy our units throughout the country. I do wonder if there aren't going to be a whole new class of jobs created relating to AI governance, relating to how you ask the model questions and how you deal with it and outputs. What I've heard from some investment analysts and others is it's great to ask the model questions and it's great to check those answers very thoroughly with your analyst afterwards. I think the job story is still to be written on AI in the country as a whole, but we're happy to be levered to where those jobs are being created like in San Francisco right now. Great, that's really helpful, Mark. Thank you. Maybe as a second one here just on capital allocation recognizing sort of the acquisition guidance was reduced as positions maintained. I think you guys have been pretty clear in the past on sort of your view around buybacks, your view around development and only wanting to sort of use retained cash flow for development. Just wondering as you sit here today, you know, how would you sort of stack rank the capital allocation opportunities, the capital use opportunities and sort of any change to the prior thinking with regards to buybacks, development or maybe something else here? Yeah, thanks Adam. It's Mark again. Alec may supplement this a little. We continue to think about acquisition opportunities, if priced correctly, as helping us attain that goal in a balanced portfolio I talked about and driving better cash flow growth over time. We think that is a good use of capital. Those acquisitions have been priced very dearly in the markets and submarkets we're interested in. We will remain really thoughtful. We're looking really hard at some deals, local supply and demand conditions where we can buy at discounts to replacement costs. We've been very disciplined on that. We do long term still like buying in the submarkets and markets we've talked to you about, you know, Dallas, Denver, Atlanta, suburban Seattle, suburban Boston, maybe some suburban Washington D.C. We will keep focused there, that is going to be a goal. We're open to doing buybacks. We did some, as you know, in late 2023 and early 2024. If we were to do buybacks, we would fund those with asset sales. I think that's more prudent right now than incurring additional debt. You can see that we've been selling some of our lower return assets at this point in the high fours to low to mid five cap rate range. When you compare that to where our stock's trading, that's a meaningful amount of value creation for shareholders. We do need to stay conscious though on the buyback side about descaling the company. We've talked on some of the calls, I know you know this, that you can really create pressures on overhead and operating expenses by getting the portfolios too small in a particular market. That's something to be mindful of. We also have a lot of gain in a lot of our assets, tax gain, and again that's kind of a natural limiter on how much dispositions can fund share buybacks. We're also looking at some development deals. I think risk adjusted, you need to be super thoughtful about development. We're glad given circumstances we have a small development platform. We only have about $200 million of funding that we need to do yet to finish the three assets that are still in flight. We're looking at some development deals and in some locations we think have particularly good dynamics. You may see us start a few of those. Those are the big three that we're kind of balancing out. I don't know, Alec, if there's anything you'd add. Yeah, I just say we supplement that by investing in our existing portfolio. We have renovations going on throughout the country. Specific to California, we're participating in the accessory dwelling unit program, ADUs, throughout that state. So keeping portfolio fresh that way. Great. Thanks for the time. We'll go next to Alex Kim with Zelman and Associates. Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question here. With the forecasted deceleration of rent growth for the back half of the year, just curious, what factors are you most closely tracking to determine upside or downside of your assumptions, and how does that compare to historical norms? Yeah. Hey, Alex. Michael. I think there's a lot of things that we're watching all the time, and I think we don't have—we have multiple levers that we're looking at, which is the goals to maximize cash flow, revenue growth for the shareholders. Right now, as I think about rent seasonality, I'm looking at just pricing trends. What does normal rent seasonality look like? How do rents sequentially decelerate as you leave the peak leasing season into the shoulder period? How are we doing with retention? What are we seeing, hearing, feeling from new prospects showing up at our properties? Are they taking longer to make decisions, et cetera? There's a lot of factors that go into that, that kind of, what I would say, force us to lean one direction or the other, favor rate, favor holding on to rate, favor occupancy, et cetera. There's no one lever that I would say has more weight than the other. Right now, we're looking at all of these combined to get a feel as to where do we sit relative to expectations for where we are in the season. Sure. Okay. For my second question, you cited the excellent rent-to-income ratios that you've been seeing within your portfolio. Just kind of combining that with the deceleration in job growth, any concerns that the level of demand isn't sustainable, or is it the opposite way around, where you're able to push rents in an environment where the macro economy is a little weaker and maybe others take a little softer stance? Yeah, thanks for that question. I think that's a market by market determination about how stressed some of these folks are. Our markets, particularly out west in San Francisco and Seattle, we've talked about people getting our average resident getting 30% cumulative increases in compensation since 2019, whereas rents are flat now, slightly higher, but basically flat to 2019. There's a lot of room there. I think people obviously need jobs, but these are highly skilled individuals that generally are our residents. My expectation is that there's plenty of room to push in our markets. We're not seeing any stress from our customer. If the job machine slows down, I think we'll feel it, like all owners of rental housing will feel it, but I think a lot less than many others, given where our assets are and that our customer honestly is at disproportionate compensation increase relative to the rent level increases. Got it. Thanks for the details. We'll go next to Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo. All right, great. Thanks for taking the question. I guess to go back to your comments on potentially starting new development, can you talk about what markets look interesting? Is it more the expansion markets, your legacy markets? How do you think about the decision to do it through a JV or on balance sheet? What would your targeted yields or returns look like? Hey, Jamie, it's Alec. What we're really looking to do is balance out our development pipeline in both places, like suburban Boston and suburban Seattle, where we have developments going on right now with targeted locations within the expansion market. A little of both is the answer that we're pursuing right now. We have some opportunities in the pipeline that we're working on. In terms of yields, you know, like everyone else, we're chasing a 6% yield on current rents, on current costs. If you're honest about rents and you can work a deal hard, but it's hard to get to that 6%. That's why the opportunities are scarce. It's not for a lack of trying on our part. We do think it'll be a good opportunity to deliver in a couple years. To get those numbers to really underwrite and pay you for that risk is a challenge right now. To talk a little bit more about development, balance sheet versus JV, we do balance sheet deals. We have a deal that is a phase deal. We knocked down a couple of buildings in the San Francisco Bay Area of an older property and put in some newer products a couple miles from the Apple headquarters. It's just killing it. It's doing very, very well. We're able to do on balance sheet stuff, but we like using joint venture partners. These are large national developers, by and large, we can trust to complete on time and on budget. We're leveraging their overhead instead of adding to our own, and that leaves us more internal flexibility. We can be much more agnostic between doing development or just buying or doing neither. We like the JV format as a way to leverage our teams here. Okay, it's an interesting point. How do you think about the cost of doing that? I assume you get a lower yield and return on capital. Jamie, it's Alec. Yeah, we're balancing up not having to have all the overhead that you need to have to do all the things wholly owned with the fact that you might have to pay a promote if a deal does well. Obviously, we hope the deal does well, but when they don't, we don't have to pay that promote. It balances out pretty well for us in terms of both limiting the overhead, but also limiting how many deals we feel like compelled to do because we've already got money into them, because we're often entering the deal when it's already entitled and ready to go. Now, our development overhead, as a matter of record, is less than $4 million a year. It's just not that significant. That's a real benefit to us compared to a lot of other folks. Yeah, that's a good point. You had mentioned earlier, accelerating rollout of AI across the platform. Can you talk about, you know, as we think about the future, just incremental cost to do that, what you think the impact could be on margins, revenue, upside? Is it something we can be modeling or it's more just internally, you get the benefit? Yeah. Jamie, this is Michael. I mean, we laid out some of this through the investor day. I think when you think about the innovation initiatives that we have here, right now, as we think about deploying AI within our portfolio, we're very focused on enhancing the customer experience at the same time optimizing the operations or looking for operating efficiencies. In terms of the actual lift for sustained result, I think that comes over time as we continue to deploy these types of applications. The first couple of use cases that we're after are really focused on streamlining and creating a seamless customer experience at the same time driving some of the overhead efficiencies through the portfolio. Jamie, it's Mark. If I could just expand on that because Michael's doing such a good job with all types of technology, including AI on the op side. What you're going to see from us is just this expansion of technology and use of technology to make better decisions, to move faster and lower cost in areas away from operations. Most importantly in capital allocation, we've got a lot of initiatives going on using more sophisticated business intelligence tools, using more data to make better capital allocation decisions over time. We have a lot of really cool in-flight projects that we think will help both in the Legal Department and the HR Department and Finance to just be more productive generally and to give our people internally a better experience, but also to be more efficient. I think it's not just AI, it's technology in general and it's not just operations. It's all manner of things here. We all have goals, everyone in the company at the top of the house, to sort of use technology to be more efficient, to make better quality decisions. That includes, of course, Michael's amazing operating machine, but also includes capital allocation and all the back office stuff as well. You think that leads to G&A savings as well? I think it's going to retard the rate of growth of overhead over time. I think these folks are very expensive people, and you may see us go up before we go down in some regards. I expect that over time we will have a slower rate of growth of our overhead functions because we'll use technology in places where it can make us more efficient. Okay, interesting. Thank you very much for the thoughts. We'll go next to Rich Hightower with Barclays. Hi, good morning, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in here. Congrats again to Alec, Bob, and Brett as well. Going back to the changing composition of the same store pool for next year, which I know we've talked about on prior call, is there a way to sort of help quantify you? If you, let's say if you had included those same assets in the pool this year, what that would have meant for same store and then you conversely, what that comp looks like for next year? Is there a way to think about it that for our modeling purposes? Yeah. Hey, Rich, it's Bob. I think the best way to think about it is they're in the expansion markets, and if you actually look at the sequential same store set, many of them or most of them are included in the sequential same store set. You'll notice if you look on one of the same store pages, we have around 81,000 units that are in sequential. That, of course, would include basically everything that we would have acquired that has not yet got into the portfolio except for the transaction that happened in the quarter or anything in the first quarter. That's probably the best indicator of absolute number of units, given where the expansion markets are today. It is modestly dilutive. In 2025, if you would have otherwise put them into the same store set, that is, of course, consistent with what we underwrote, and they're performing with what we underwrote. We would think that as we roll into 2026, you will see a good framework or good upside potential. Most notably, when you look at the stats in 2026 around the specific performance, what these additions to the portfolio do is really balance some of those portfolios in those markets, like Michael mentioned. Today you have such a small sample set in the same store related to the expansion markets that it's very volatile on some of the leasing spreads. It's oftentimes suboptimal in terms of the portfolio allocation. These recent acquisitions should balance us out better, and you'll see probably a smoother, more consistent, and better performance overall. We think it's good. I think as you go on even further into 2027 and thereabouts, it should be even more additive as supply comes down in these markets and you see growth coming out of the expansion markets. Okay, that is helpful. Just to be clear, I know we've covered this before, but the same store pool overall recomposes on a quarterly basis. Is that how you guys do it? Yeah. We have actually two. We have three sets, right? You have a full year in order. Basically, in order to own, in order to be in same store, we have three sets of same stores, but in order to be in same store, you need to have been owned for the full period of the comparable period. For the full year same store set, you'll see we have 75,000 some odd units. That means that we fully own them in 2024 and fully own them in 2025. In the quarterly, you just need to have been owned for the full period and stabilized, I should note, in the full period for the corresponding quarter. We had to own you in Q2, for instance, Q2 compared to Q2 of the prior year. In the sequential, which is always the largest when you're doing acquisitions, the sequential set is always the largest because we had to own you in Q1 of 2025 and in Q2 of 2025 to be included. We have three sets to keep. Life interesting and just to give it a little more point on that. Bob is still our CFO, so he can correct me as an old CFO if I get it wrong. We're going to add about 4,000 units to the annual same store set, and those will be, as you guessed, Rich, predominantly, almost entirely in those expansion markets. They will generally, because of their locations, improve our results quarter over quarter. Because those markets are slower growth than our legacy markets, they're going to slow down the company's total growth rate, which is what Bob was implying in his beginning answer. I think you'll see some numbers that are less volatile. And. Dallas, when you add in all these suburban acquisitions, which just tended to be the things we acquired in our second or third year of being back in those markets as opposed to being the initial properties we acquired, that makes sense? It does, yeah. If I'm still confused, I'll follow up offline. I appreciate it. You. Julien Blouin with Goldman Sachs. Hi, thank you. Thank you for the question. Just on Washington D.C. and Boston, those were helpful comments earlier on the sort of early signs of softness you're seeing in those markets. I think what's just been striking is just how solid the blends in those markets were in the second quarter. Should we read into your comments around prioritizing occupancy that you think blends could actually decelerate more than seasonal norms in the back half of the year in those markets? Hey, Julien, it's Michael. No, I don't think I would read into that yet. I think both Washington D.C. and Boston continue to be the headline risk markets and we need to just be paying attention to it. We saw a little bit of deceleration at the end of the peak leasing season in Washington D.C. Boston's kind of been steady, you know, so I think that does warrant us leaning in towards that occupancy play. You're going into the shoulder period. They're pretty pronounced seasonal markets to begin with. I think just normal deceleration probably allows us to maintain that lean towards occupancy. Okay, great. That's all from me. Thanks. We'll go next to David Segall with Green Street. Hi, thank you. Maybe just going back to your comments about the transaction market, it sounds like the expectation of lender pressure leading to more activity has not played out. Do you have any thoughts on why is that? Is it just going to be delaying the activity until next year or until rents recover, or is it just not going to happen at all? Hey, David, it's Alec. Yeah, you're right. That was an anticipation going into the year that there would be more lenders just eager to get their money back. What we're hearing from our conversations is that, in fact, given the slowdown in new business, the lenders actually want to keep money engaged in the multifamily sector. They are much more willing to extend than we had anticipated, frankly, than I think they thought they were going to anticipate going into the year. That pressure still continues to build, though, in the longer run because so many new properties are delivering, particularly in these expansion markets. We do think we'll see more opportunity and we're poised to take advantage of that. Great, thank you. With regard to your CapEx guidance, it was reduced a little bit. Just curious what's driving that and would there be any associated impact on revenue growth? Hey, David, it's Alec. It's really just some projects taking a little longer than we thought they would and some of the renovations, fewer units, but things we will get to in the next 12 months or so. One of them is a conversion of some office space in Boston to residential. That just got tied up a little bit with the city, but we expect that to happen as well. Great. Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions. I'll turn the call back to Mark for any additional or closing remarks. Thanks, Jennifer. Thank you all for your time and interest in Equity Residential today, and we'll see you on the fall conference circuit. Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.
Speaker 12: Good day and welcome to the Equity Residential 2Q 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. MartIn McKenna. Please go ahead. Good day and welcome to the Equity Residential 2Q 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. good day and welcome to the equity residential 2q 2025 earnings conference call and webcast Today's conference is being recorded. today's conference is being recorded At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. MartIn McKenna. at this time i'd like to turn the conference over to mr martin mckenna Please go ahead. please go ahead
Speaker 4: Good morning and thanks for joining us to discuss Equity Residential second quarter 2025 results. Our featured speakers today are Mark Parrell, our President and CEO, Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer, and Bob Garechana, our Chief Financial Officer. Alec Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer, is here with us as well for the Q&A. Our earnings release is posted in the investor section of equityapartments.com. Please be advised that certain matters discussed during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties. The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements that become untrue because of subsequent events. Now I will turn the call over to Mark Parrell. Good morning and thanks for joining us to discuss Equity Residential second quarter 2025 results. good morning and thanks for joining us to discuss equity residential second quarter 2025 results Our featured speakers today are Mark Parrell, our President and CEO, Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer, and Bob Garechana, our Chief Financial Officer. our featured speakers today are mark parrell our president and ceo michael manelis our chief operating officer and bob garechana our chief financial officer Alec Brackenridge, our Chief Investment Officer, is here with us as well for the Q&A . alec brackenridge our chief investment officer is here with us as well for the q&a Our earnings release is posted in the investor section of equityapartments.com. our earnings release is posted in the investor section of equityapartments.com Please be advised that certain matters discussed during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. please be advised that certain matters discussed during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws These forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties. these forward-looking statements are subject to certain economic risks and uncertainties The company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements that become u ntrue because of subsequent events. the company assumes no obligation to update or supplement these statements that become u ntrue because of subsequent events Now I will turn the call over to Mark Parrell. now i will turn the call over to mark parrell
Speaker 10: Thank you, Marty. Good morning and thanks for joining us today. I will lead us off with some top of the house commentary. Then Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer, will provide color on our second quarter performance as well as what he is seeing in the markets today and an update on some of the initiatives we have going on. We will then turn the call over to Bob Garechana in his last call as our CFO before he takes over as our Chief Investment Officer, and Bob will provide some color on our guidance changes. Then we'll go ahead and take your questions. Alec Brackenridge, our soon to retire CIO, is here with us for the Q&A. Our second quarter results and guidance continue to reflect the sustained demand and excellent resident retention that we are seeing across our markets. Thank you, Marty. thank you marty Good morning and thanks for joining us today. good morning and thanks for joining us today I will lead us off with some top of the house commentary. i will lead us off with some top of the house commentary Then Michael Manelis, our Chief Operating Officer, will provide color on our second quarter performance as well as what he is seeing in the markets today and an update on some of the initiatives we have going on. then michael manelis our chief operating officer will provide color on our second quarter performance as well as what he is seeing in the markets today and an update on some of the initiatives we have going on We will then turn the call over to Bob Garechana in his last call as our CFO before he takes over as our Chief Investment Officer, and Bob will provide some color on our guidance changes. we will then turn the call over to bob garechana in his last call as our cfo before he takes over as our chief investment officer and bob will provide some color on our guidance changes Then we'll go ahead and take your questions. then we'll go ahead and take your questions Alec Brackenridge, our soon to retire CIO, is here with us for the Q& A. alec brackenridge our soon to retire cio is here with us for the q& a Our second quarter results and guidance continue to reflect the sustained demand and excellent resident retention that we are seeing across our markets. our second quarter results and guidance continue to reflect the sustained demand and excellent resident retention that we are seeing across our markets We see this demand as being supported by nearly full employment in the country as a whole, with the overall unemployment rate being only 4.2%, though the pace of job growth is certainly slowing. The unemployment rate for our key demographic, the college educated, remains even lower at 2.7%. We're also seeing continued high retention rates as more residents choose to renew with us. Fewer and fewer residents are moving out to buy homes as we and other operators often prioritize occupancy and renewal rate management over new lease growth in a world that is more uncertain than usual for residents and landlords. Also, we continue to see the forward setup for our business as outstanding and see above trend revenue growth in future years as likely given the large apartment supply decline, the expensive and unavailable single family owned housing market, and societal trends favoring rentership. We see this demand as being supported by nearly full employment in the country as a whole, with the overall unemployment rate being only 4.2%, though the pace of job growth is certainly slowing. we see this demand as being supported by nearly full employment in the country as a whole with the overall unemployment rate being only 4.2% though the pace of job growth is certainly slowing The unemployment rate for our key demographic, the college educated, remains even lower at 2.7%. the unemployment rate for our key demographic the college educated remains even lower at 2.7% We're also seeing continued high retention rates as more residents choose to renew with us. we're also seeing continued high retention rates as more residents choose to renew with us Fewer and fewer residents are moving out to buy homes as we and other operators often prioritize occupancy and renewal rate management over new lease growth in a world that is more uncertain than usual for residents and landlords. fewer and fewer residents are moving out to buy homes as we and other operators often prioritize occupancy and renewal rate management over new lease growth in a world that is more uncertain than usual for residents and landlords Also, we continue to see the forward setup for our business as outstanding and see above trend revenue growth in future years as likely given the large apartment supply decline, the expensive and unavailable single family owned housing market, and societal trends favoring rentership. also we continue to see the forward setup for our business as outstanding and see above trend revenue growth in future years as likely given the large apartment supply decline the expensive and unavailable single family owned housing market and societal trends favoring rentership As we talked about at our Investor Day, earlier this year, our shareholders benefit from our unique and diversified portfolio. We have a differentiated exposure from our competitors that includes a collection of assets across the urban centers of many coastal markets that gives us a distinct opportunity to outperform as improving conditions, particularly continuing declines in new supply and improvements in quality of life in these urban centers, drive faster cash flow growth. As we talked about at our Investor Day, e arlier this year, our shareholders benefit from our unique and diversified portfolio. as we talked about at our investor day, e arlier this year our shareholders benefit from our unique and diversified portfolio We have a differentiated exposure from our competitors that includes a collection of assets across the urban centers of many coastal markets that gives us a distinct opportunity to outperform as improving conditions, particularly continuing declines in new supply and improvements in quality of life in these urban centers, drive faster cash flow growth. we have a differentiated exposure from our competitors that includes a collection of assets across the urban centers of many coastal markets that gives us a distinct opportunity to outperform as improving conditions particularly continuing declines in new supply and improvements in quality of life in these urban centers drive faster cash flow growth To illustrate that further, we are already seeing strong revenue results in places like New York City and downtown San Francisco where supply has already abated. With more supply declines on the way, we are optimistic our results can continue to be above trend in these areas. Across our markets, we look for a balance of both urban and suburban assets that capture the changing needs of our primary renter demographic, putting this portfolio on top of the most efficient overall operating platform in the space. When you take into account overhead, capital expenditures, and operating expenses, you have a vehicle that should outperform in the near term and over the long term because of its focus on higher earning renters across a broad array of markets. Finally, while good job growth is important to all apartment markets, it is especially important to drive absorption in oversupplied markets. To illustrate that further, we are already s eeing strong revenue results in places like New York City and downtown San Francisco where supply has already abated. to illustrate that further we are already s eeing strong revenue results in places like new york city and downtown san francisco where supply has already abated With more supply declines on the way, we are optimistic our results can continue to be above trend in these areas. with more supply declines on the way we are optimistic our results can continue to be above trend in these areas Across our markets, we look for a balance of both urban and suburban assets that capture the changing needs of our primary renter demographic, putting this portfolio on top of the most efficient overall operating platform in the space. across our markets we look for a balance of both urban and suburban assets that capture the changing needs of our primary renter demographic putting this portfolio on top of the most efficient overall operating platform in the space When you take into account overhead, capital expenditures, and operating expenses, you have a vehicle that should outperform in the near term and over the long term because of its focus on higher earning renters across a broad array of markets. when you take into account overhead capital expenditures and operating expenses you have a vehicle that should outperform in the near term and over the long term because of its focus on higher earning renters across a broad array of markets Finally, while good job growth is important to all apartment markets, it is especially important to drive absorption in oversupplied markets. finally while good job growth is important to all apartment markets it is especially important to drive absorption in oversupplied markets We expect our portfolio, with its tilt towards lower supplied markets and submarkets and relatively modest amount of development properties in lease up, to exhibit more resilience if job growth continues to wane. On the transactions front in the quarter, we continued to build out our presence in Atlanta with the acquisition of an eight property portfolio in suburban submarkets. This is a market we have been favoring in our recent acquisition activity as we expect supply here to decline more quickly than in other Sun Belt markets. We now have 22 properties spread throughout targeted submarkets within the Atlanta metro area. These eight new store properties plus seven assets that were acquired last year complement and round out our current six property same store portfolio that is focused more in Midtown and in closer in submarkets. We expect our portfolio, with its tilt towards lower supplied markets and submarkets and relatively modest amount of development properties in lease up, to exhibit more resilience if job growth continues to wane. we expect our portfolio with its tilt towards lower supplied markets and submarkets and relatively modest amount of development properties in lease up to exhibit more resilience if job growth continues to wane On the transactions front in the quarter, we continued to build out our presence in Atlanta with the acquisition of an eight property portfolio in suburban submarkets. on the transactions front in the quarter we continued to build out our presence in atlanta with the acquisition of an eight property portfolio in suburban submarkets This is a market we have been favoring in our recent acquisition activity as we expect supply here to decline more quickly than in other Sun Belt markets. this is a market we have been favoring in our recent acquisition activity as we expect supply here to decline more quickly than in other sun belt markets We now have 22 properties spread throughout targeted submarkets within the Atlanta metro area. we now have 22 properties spread throughout targeted submarkets within the atlanta metro area These eight new store properties plus seven assets that were acquired last year complement and round out our current six property same store portfolio that is focused more in Midtown and in closer in submarkets. these eight new store properties plus seven assets that were acquired last year complement and round out our current six property same store portfolio that is focused more in midtown and in closer in submarkets We have also gained powerful economies of scale in Atlanta where we can efficiently share personnel across a broad portfolio and take advantage of our new scale in contracting for local services like landscaping, as we do in other markets where we have a large number of properties. We continue to look for opportunities to add to our portfolios in our expansion markets and certain suburban submarkets of our established markets. The transaction market is not as active as we had hoped it would be at the beginning of the year. As a result, pricing has become very competitive with cap rates for desirable assets we wish to acquire, often in the high 4% range, significantly lower than the cost of debt, even for us, with our highly rated balance sheet. We have also gained powerful economies of scale in Atlanta where we can efficiently share personnel across a broad portfolio and take advantage of our new scale in contracting for local services like landscaping, as we do in other markets where we have a large number of properties. we have also gained powerful economies of scale in atlanta where we can efficiently share personnel across a broad portfolio and take advantage of our new scale in contracting for local services like landscaping as we do in other markets where we have a large number of properties We continue to look for opportunities to add to our portfolios in our expansion markets and certain suburban submarkets of our established markets. we continue to look for opportunities to add to our portfolios in our expansion markets and certain suburban submarkets of our established markets The transaction market is not as active as we had hoped it would be at the beginning of the year. the transaction market is not as active as we had hoped it would be at the beginning of the year As a result, pricing has become very competitive with cap rates for desirable assets we wish to acquire, often in the high 4% range, significantly lower than the cost of debt, even for us, with our highly rated balance sheet. as a result pricing has become very competitive with cap rates for desirable assets we wish to acquire often in the high 4% range significantly lower than the cost of debt even for us with our highly rated balance sheet As you saw in our release, we have lowered our acquisitions expectations for the full year to $1 billion from $1.5 billion and expect to match sales and acquisitions this year. Nonetheless, we certainly have the ability to accelerate our acquisitions should attractively priced opportunities arrive. Before I turn it over to Michael, I want to thank Alec Brackenridge for his leadership, for his friendship, for all his hard work over the years creating value for our shareholders. Alec will work with us assisting in the transition as we finish out the year. We're also excited for Bob and know he will thrive in his new Chief Investment Officer role. Finally, I want to welcome Brett McLeod to Equity Residential. Brett will take over as our Chief Financial Officer in a few days and we are very excited to add his deep financial experience and new perspectives to our team. As you saw in our release, we have lowered our acquisitions expectations for the full year to $1 billion from $1.5 billion and expect to match sales and acquisitions this year. as you saw in our release we have lowered our acquisitions expectations for the full year to $1 billion from $1.5 billion and expect to match sales and acquisitions this year Nonetheless, we certainly have the ability to accelerate our acquisitions should attractively priced opportunities arrive. nonetheless we certainly have the ability to accelerate our acquisitions should attractively priced opportunities arrive Before I turn it over to Michael, I want to thank Alec Brackenridge for his leadership, for his friendship, for all his hard work over the years creating value for our shareholders. before i turn it over to michael i want to thank alec brackenridge for his leadership for his friendship for all his hard work over the years creating value for our shareholders Alec will work with us assisting in the transition as we finish out the year. alec will work with us assisting in the transition as we finish out the year We're also excited for Bob and know he will thrive in his new Chief Investment Officer role. we're also excited for bob and know he will thrive in his new chief investment officer role Finally, I want to welcome Brett McLeod to Equity Residential. finally i want to welcome brett mcleod to equity residential Brett will take over as our Chief Financial Officer in a few days and we are very excited to add his deep financial experience and new perspectives to our team. brett will take over as our chief financial officer in a few days and we are very excited to add his deep financial experience and new perspectives to our team With that, I'll turn the call over to Michael Manelis. With that, I'll turn the call over to Michael Manelis. with that i'll turn the call over to michael manelis
Speaker 16: Thanks, Mark, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Our second quarter results exceeded our expectations from the beginning of the year and were about in line with our expectations going into the leasing season. The financial health of our residents remains strong. The average household income of our residents who moved in with us in the second quarter is up 8.5% from the same quarter last year and rent as a percent of income remains low at 20%. In addition, as Mark mentioned, we are not losing residents to home purchase and in fact that number sat at 7.2% in the quarter, which is among the lowest levels we have seen. Our blended rent growth of 3% was about where we thought it would be, driven by strong renewal rate of 5.2% with 60% of the residents renewing in the quarter. Thanks, Mark, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. thanks mark and thanks to all of you for joining us today Our second quarter results exceeded our expectations from the beginning of the year and were about in line with our expectations going into the leasing season. our second quarter results exceeded our expectations from the beginning of the year and were about in line with our expectations going into the leasing season The financial health of our residents remains strong. the financial health of our residents remains strong The average household income of our residents who moved in with us in the second quarter is up 8.5% from the same quarter last year and rent as a percent of income remains low at 20%. the average household income of our residents who moved in with us in the second quarter is up 8.5% from the same quarter last year and rent as a percent of income remains low at 20% In addition, as Mark mentioned, we are not losing residents to home purchase and in fact that number sat at 7.2% in the quarter, which is among the lowest levels we have seen. in addition as mark mentioned we are not losing residents to home purchase and in fact that number sat at 7.2% in the quarter which is among the lowest levels we have seen Our blended rent growth of 3% was about where we thought it would be, driven by strong renewal rate of 5.2% with 60% of the residents renewing in the quarter. our blended rent growth of 3% was about where we thought it would be driven by strong renewal rate of 5.2% with 60% of the residents renewing in the quarter Our intense focus on customer satisfaction and stronger than expected results from our centralized renewal process have driven this performance. Our physical occupancy was very good at 96.6%. New lease rate was slightly negative in the quarter, which reflects that while there is good demand, it is a bit price sensitive and concession use continues in a number of our markets, particularly those with heavy supply. As we look to the markets, New York City continues to benefit from high occupancy, actually the highest in our portfolio, and very little competitive new supply, leading to some of the best blended rent growth in our portfolio. With demand being driven by a steady job market, we continue to expect this market, where we have a predominantly urban portfolio, to be one of our best performing markets in 2025. Our intense focus on customer satisfaction and stronger than expected results from our centralized renewal process have driven this performance. our intense focus on customer satisfaction and stronger than expected results from our centralized renewal process have driven this performance Our physical occupancy was very good at 96.6%. our physical occupancy was very good at 96.6% New lease rate was slightly negative in the quarter, which reflects that while there is good demand, it is a bit price sensitive and concession use continues in a number of our markets, particularly those with heavy supply. new lease rate was slightly negative in the quarter which reflects that while there is good demand it is a bit price sensitive and concession use continues in a number of our markets particularly those with heavy supply As we look to the markets, New York City continues to benefit from high occupancy, actually the highest in our portfolio, and very little competitive new supply, leading to some of the best blended rent growth in our portfolio. as we look to the markets new york city continues to benefit from high occupancy actually the highest in our portfolio and very little competitive new supply leading to some of the best blended rent growth in our portfolio With demand being driven by a steady job market, we continue to expect this market, where we have a predominantly urban portfolio, to be one of our best performing markets in 2025. with demand being driven by a steady job market we continue to expect this market where we have a predominantly urban portfolio to be one of our best performing markets in 2025 Boston has had steady demand leading to good occupancy and a strong renewal rate. The market is feeling some of the pressure and uncertainty from actual and potential cuts to the education and research sector. As a result, the job market seems a little softer here and foreign inbound demand was slightly below historical norms. Our urban assets continue to outperform our suburban ones as the new supply is more focused in the suburbs. Our bias here will continue to be occupancy focused and the second quarter was already up 90 basis points sequentially. Washington D.C. has been an excellent performer throughout the first half of the year with high occupancy and good retention and really strong rent growth. Not surprisingly, we have recently seen a slowing in the market likely due to the uncertainty around jobs given the cuts by the administration. Boston has had steady demand leading to good occupancy and a strong renewal rate. boston has had steady demand leading to good occupancy and a strong renewal rate The market is feeling some of the pressure and uncertainty from actual and potential cuts to the education and research sector. the market is feeling some of the pressure and uncertainty from actual and potential cuts to the education and research sector As a result, the job market seems a little softer here and foreign inbound demand was slightly below historical norms. as a result the job market seems a little softer here and foreign inbound demand was slightly below historical norms Our urban assets continue to outperform our suburban ones as the new supply is more focused in the suburbs. our urban assets continue to outperform our suburban ones as the new supply is more focused in the suburbs Our bias here will continue to be occupancy focused and the second quarter was already up 90 basis points sequentially. our bias here will continue to be occupancy focused and the second quarter was already up 90 basis points sequentially Washington D.C. has been an excellent performer throughout the first half of the year with high occupancy and good retention and really strong rent growth. washington d.c has been an excellent performer throughout the first half of the year with high occupancy and good retention and really strong rent growth Not surprisingly, we have recently seen a slowing in the market likely due to the uncertainty around jobs given the cuts by the administration. not surprisingly we have recently seen a slowing in the market likely due to the uncertainty around jobs given the cuts by the administration While the government is not the only employer in the market, it clearly has an influence on the overall feel and confidence levels. Currently, our pressure is being felt in the District and areas of Northern Virginia. Velocity slowed a bit in July, but demand recovered quickly as we backed off on rate, which is allowing us to maintain strong occupancy. Despite the recent softening, the Washington D.C. market remains on track to be one of our strongest revenue growth markets in 2025 with a very significant drop off in supply expected in 2026. Moving out west, the real standout market for this year is San Francisco. We talked about the potential for recovery in this market at our investor day and are very pleased that this recovery is coming to fruition at a pace even beyond what we expected. While the government is not the only employer in the market, it clearly has an influence on the overall feel and confidence levels. while the government is not the only employer in the market it clearly has an influence on the overall feel and confidence levels Currently, our pressure is being felt in the District and areas of Northern Virginia. currently our pressure is being felt in the district and areas of northern virginia Velocity slowed a bit in July, but demand recovered quickly as we backed off on rate, which is allowing us to maintain strong occupancy. velocity slowed a bit in july but demand recovered quickly as we backed off on rate which is allowing us to maintain strong occupancy Despite the recent softening, the Washington D.C. market remains on track to be one of our strongest revenue growth markets in 2025 with a very significant drop off in supply expected in 2026. despite the recent softening the washington d.c market remains on track to be one of our strongest revenue growth markets in 2025 with a very significant drop off in supply expected in 2026 Moving out west, the real standout market for this year is San Francisco. moving out west the real standout market for this year is san francisco We talked about the potential for recovery in this market at our investor day and are very pleased that this recovery is coming to fruition at a pace even beyond what we expected. we talked about the potential for recovery in this market at our investor day and are very pleased that this recovery is coming to fruition at a pace even beyond what we expected Our blended rate growth at 5.8% here is the best in our portfolio, driven by strong new lease and renewal increases with sequential gains in occupancy. This is a great example of where we saw a recovery in full force and drove very robust seasonal price acceleration, including the pullback on concessions. Tech jobs are steady with a lot of continued AI focus in the market. During the second quarter, we observed very favorable migration patterns with 8% more move-ins coming to us from outside the MSA and 5% more move-ins coming to us from out of state. We are optimistic that these migration patterns continue, especially in the downtown submarket as the city is really starting to feel the positive impact from the focus on quality of life issues. Our blended rate growth at 5.8% here is the best in our portfolio, driven by strong new lease and renewal increases with sequential gains in occupancy. our blended rate growth at 5.8% here is the best in our portfolio driven by strong new lease and renewal increases with sequential gains in occupancy This is a great example of where we saw a recovery in full force and drove very robust seasonal price acceleration, including the pullback on concessions. this is a great example of where we saw a recovery in full force and drove very robust seasonal price acceleration including the pullback on concessions Tech jobs are steady with a lot of continued AI focus in the market. tech jobs are steady with a lot of continued ai focus in the market During the second quarter, we observed very favorable migration patterns with 8% more move-ins coming to us from outside the MSA and 5% more move-ins coming to us from out of state. during the second quarter we observed very favorable migration patterns with 8% more move-ins coming to us from outside the msa and 5% more move-ins coming to us from out of state We are optimistic that these migration patterns continue, especially in the downtown submarket as the city is really starting to feel the positive impact from the focus on quality of life issues. we are optimistic that these migration patterns continue especially in the downtown submarket as the city is really starting to feel the positive impact from the focus on quality of life issues Competitive supply in the market at less than 1% of inventory is very manageable, and we believe this will be our best performing market this year. In Seattle, the improvements continue with the market working past the quality of life issues that have been a challenge. Seattle is seeing a slow and steady job growth from the tech firms, leading to modest growth in office-using jobs, which is also being positively impacted by the return to office policies of big employers like Amazon and Starbucks. As expected, supply pressure was felt in the City of Seattle and Redmond submarkets, which impacted some of our new lease pricing power. The good news is that most of the concentrated deliveries are behind us, and this is likely to be a temporary condition. Competitive supply in the market at less than 1% of inventory is very manageable, and we believe this will be our best performing market this year. competitive supply in the market at less than 1% of inventory is very manageable and we believe this will be our best performing market this year In Seattle, the improvements continue with the market working past the quality of life issues that have been a challenge. in seattle the improvements continue with the market working past the quality of life issues that have been a challenge Seattle is seeing a slow and steady job growth from the tech firms, leading to modest growth in office-using jobs, which is also being positively impacted by the return to office policies of big employers like Amazon and Starbucks. seattle is seeing a slow and steady job growth from the tech firms leading to modest growth in office-using jobs which is also being positively impacted by the return to office policies of big employers like amazon and starbucks As expected, supply pressure was felt in the City of Seattle and Redmond submarkets, which impacted some of our new lease pricing power. as expected supply pressure was felt in the city of seattle and redmond submarkets which impacted some of our new lease pricing power The good news is that most of the concentrated deliveries are behind us, and this is likely to be a temporary condition. the good news is that most of the concentrated deliveries are behind us and this is likely to be a temporary condition Concessions are still in wide use as the market seems to have become accustomed to them over the past few years. Overall, solid employment and an easier comp for us in the second half of the year as Seattle continues to be one of the top performing markets for us this year with a great setup in 2026. Los Angeles continues to face challenges and underperform our pretty modest beginning of the year expectations. Lackluster job growth driven by a pretty weak entertainment sector, along with the quality of life issues, are keeping pressure on demand. Our West LA and suburban portfolios are doing better than our assets located in Korea and Mid Wilshire submarkets. On the hopeful side, a very large tax incentive should spur local employment by driving the return of filming and production to the market. Concessions are still in wide use as the market seems to have become accustomed to them over the past few years. concessions are still in wide use as the market seems to have become accustomed to them over the past few years Overall, solid employment and an easier comp for us in the second half of the year as Seattle continues to be one of the top performing markets for us this year with a great setup in 2026. overall solid employment and an easier comp for us in the second half of the year as seattle continues to be one of the top performing markets for us this year with a great setup in 2026 Los Angeles continues to face challenges and underperform our pretty modest beginning of the year expectations. los angeles continues to face challenges and underperform our pretty modest beginning of the year expectations Lackluster job growth driven by a pretty weak entertainment sector, along with the quality of life issues, are keeping pressure on demand. lackluster job growth driven by a pretty weak entertainment sector along with the quality of life issues are keeping pressure on demand Our West LA and suburban portfolios are doing better than our assets located in Korea and Mid Wilshire submarkets. our west la and suburban portfolios are doing better than our assets located in korea and mid wilshire submarkets On the hopeful side, a very large tax incentive should spur local employment by driving the return of filming and production to the market. on the hopeful side a very large tax incentive should spur local employment by driving the return of filming and production to the market We have good occupancy overall, but it appears that our rents peaked in early June. This is a good example of a market where our focus is on retention and capturing good renewal rates while maintaining occupancy, as overall pricing power was softer than seasonal norms. Orange County and San Diego are performing in line with our expectations for the year. New supply and modest job growth are keeping pressure on rents after a number of years of strong performance. Finally, in our expansion markets, Denver continues to feel the impact from modest job growth and high levels of new supply, particularly in the downtown market. Concession use is heavy in the overall market. We have a good pace on our leasing volume, but a fair bit of price sensitivity and deal shopping is impacting new lease growth and making us prioritize retention and renewal rates. We have good occupancy overall, but it appears that our rents peaked in early June. we have good occupancy overall but it appears that our rents peaked in early june This is a good example of a market where our focus is on retention and capturing good renewal rates while maintaining occupancy, as overall pricing power was softer than seasonal norms. this is a good example of a market where our focus is on retention and capturing good renewal rates while maintaining occupancy as overall pricing power was softer than seasonal norms Orange County and San Diego are performing in line with our expectations for the year. orange county and san diego are performing in line with our expectations for the year New supply and modest job growth are keeping pressure on rents after a number of years of strong performance. new supply and modest job growth are keeping pressure on rents after a number of years of strong performance Finally, in our expansion markets, Denver continues to feel the impact from modest job growth and high levels of new supply, particularly in the downtown market. finally in our expansion markets denver continues to feel the impact from modest job growth and high levels of new supply particularly in the downtown market Concession use is heavy in the overall market. concession use is heavy in the overall market We have a good pace on our leasing volume, but a fair bit of price sensitivity and deal shopping is impacting new lease growth and making us prioritize retention and renewal rates. we have a good pace on our leasing volume but a fair bit of price sensitivity and deal shopping is impacting new lease growth and making us prioritize retention and renewal rates Our Atlanta portfolio is performing in line with our expectations for the year. As a reminder, our same store portfolio here is just seven assets and is primarily located in more urban locations like Midtown. Unlike our newer suburban acquisitions, the urban areas are experiencing a lot of new supply and concession use, but it appears that this submarket found a bottom as we have had a few months of stability with early signs of potential improving conditions. Our non same store properties, which I mentioned are more suburban focused, will join the same store set next year and are performing at or slightly better than our underwritten expectations and clearly better than our urban Atlanta properties. We feel good about Dallas. Our Atlanta portfolio is performing in line with our expectations for the year. our atlanta portfolio is performing in line with our expectations for the year As a reminder, our same store portfolio here is just seven assets and is primarily located in more urban locations like Midtown. as a reminder our same store portfolio here is just seven assets and is primarily located in more urban locations like midtown Unlike our newer suburban acquisitions, the urban areas are experiencing a lot of new supply and concession use, but it appears that this submarket found a bottom as we have had a few months of stability with early signs of potential improving conditions. unlike our newer suburban acquisitions the urban areas are experiencing a lot of new supply and concession use but it appears that this submarket found a bottom as we have had a few months of stability with early signs of potential improving conditions Our non same store properties, which I mentioned are more suburban focused, will join the same store set next year and are performing at or slightly better than our underwritten expectations and clearly better than our urban Atlanta properties. our non same store properties which i mentioned are more suburban focused will join the same store set next year and are performing at or slightly better than our underwritten expectations and clearly better than our urban atlanta properties We feel good about Dallas. we feel good about dallas Demand is strong due to better than average job growth in the market, but concessions are plentiful as the market absorbs supply, particularly in select submarkets similar to Atlanta. Our newer acquisitions, which are in less supply concentrated submarkets, will join the 2026 same store set and tend to face less direct supply pressure and are performing better with fewer concessions and stronger occupancies. Switching to Innovation and Automation Updates, the opportunity to apply artificial intelligence in our business is really exciting. Our AI leasing application pilots have reduced overall application completion time by over 50% while significantly improving fraud detection, resident underwriting, and user satisfaction. Given this success, we are accelerating the rollout, aiming for full deployment by end of year, which is about a quarter earlier than the original timeframe. Demand is strong due to better than average job growth in the market, but concessions are plentiful as the market absorbs supply, particularly in select submarkets similar to Atlanta. demand is strong due to better than average job growth in the market but concessions are plentiful as the market absorbs supply particularly in select submarkets similar to atlanta Our newer acquisitions, which are in less supply concentrated submarkets, will join the 2026 same store set and tend to face less direct supply pressure and are performing better with fewer concessions and stronger occupancies. our newer acquisitions which are in less supply concentrated submarkets will join the 2026 same store set and tend to face less direct supply pressure and are performing better with fewer concessions and stronger occupancies Switching to Innovation and Automation Updates, the opportunity to apply artificial intelligence in our business is really exciting. switching to innovation and automation updates the opportunity to apply artificial intelligence in our business is really exciting Our AI leasing application pilots have reduced overall application completion time by over 50% while significantly improving fraud detection, resident underwriting, and user satisfaction. our ai leasing application pilots have reduced overall application completion time by over 50% while significantly improving fraud detection resident underwriting and user satisfaction Given this success, we are accelerating the rollout, aiming for full deployment by end of year, which is about a quarter earlier than the original timeframe. given this success we are accelerating the rollout aiming for full deployment by end of year which is about a quarter earlier than the original timeframe Additionally, our new delinquency management AI will be fully deployed by the end of this month, and so far we can see that consistent engagement with customers improves overall payment behaviors. All of these automation and conversational AI initiatives are set up to dramatically improve both our customer experience and operational efficiency. As we think about the third quarter, we expect blended rates to begin to moderate as usual, with strong retention and occupancy continuing against a backdrop of slightly lower achieved renewal and new lease rates, which combined will result in an expected blended rate growth range of 2.2%-2.8% for the quarter. With our occupancy holding steady and resident turnover continuing to track at record low levels, we are well positioned for a solid back half of the year, especially as supply headwinds continue to subside. Additionally, our new delinquency management AI will be fully deployed by the end of this month, and so far we can see that consistent engagement with customers improves overall payment behaviors. additionally our new delinquency management ai will be fully deployed by the end of this month and so far we can see that consistent engagement with customers improves overall payment behaviors All of these automation and conversational AI initiatives are set up to dramatically improve both our customer experience and operational efficiency. all of these automation and conversational ai initiatives are set up to dramatically improve both our customer experience and operational efficiency As we think about the third quarter, we expect blended rates to begin to moderate as usual, with strong retention and occupancy continuing against a backdrop of slightly lower achieved renewal and new lease rates, which combined will result in an expected blended rate growth range of 2.2%- 2.8% for the quarter. as we think about the third quarter we expect blended rates to begin to moderate as usual with strong retention and occupancy continuing against a backdrop of slightly lower achieved renewal and new lease rates which combined will result in an expected blended rate growth range of 2.2%- 2.8% for the quarter With our occupancy holding steady and resident turnover continuing to track at record low levels, we are well positioned for a solid back half of the year, especially as supply headwinds continue to subside. with our occupancy holding steady and resident turnover continuing to track at record low levels we are well positioned for a solid back half of the year especially as supply headwinds continue to subside As I think about our setup for 2026, we expect to have normal embedded growth, continued strong renewal performance, and occupancy against a backdrop of much less competitive new supply pressure. At this time, I will turn the call over to Bob to walk us through the financial results and guidance changes. As I think about our setup for 2026, we expect to have normal embedded growth, continued strong renewal performance, and occupancy against a backdrop of much less competitive new supply pressure. as i think about our setup for 2026 we expect to have normal embedded growth continued strong renewal performance and occupancy against a backdrop of much less competitive new supply pressure At this time, I will turn the call over to Bob to walk us through the financial results and guidance changes. at this time i will turn the call over to bob to walk us through the financial results and guidance changes
Speaker 6: Thanks Michael. As Michael mentioned, I'll walk through our guidance changes before opening it up for Q&A, starting with same store revenue. The 15 basis point increase in the midpoint of our same store revenue guidance is driven primarily by better than anticipated retention and improved occupancy growth, which Michael already discussed. As we discussed at the beginning of the year, other income growth and bad debt improvement remain back half loaded and thus far are right on track with our original guidance expectations. We continue to expect improvements in those areas of 70 basis points and 20 basis points, respectively. Turning to same store expenses, we've revised the midpoint of our expense guidance range down by 25 basis points. This improvement is driven by better than anticipated real estate tax, insurance, and payroll growth, offset in part by higher utilities expenses. Thanks Michael. thanks michael As Michael mentioned, I'll walk through our guidance changes before opening it up for Q& A, starting with same store revenue. as michael mentioned i'll walk through our guidance changes before opening it up for q& a starting with same store revenue The 15 basis point increase in the midpoint of our same store revenue guidance is driven primarily by better than anticipated retention and improved occupancy growth, which Michael already discussed. the 15 basis point increase in the midpoint of our same store revenue guidance is driven primarily by better than anticipated retention and improved occupancy growth which michael already discussed As we discussed at the beginning of the year, other income growth and bad debt improvement remain back half loaded and thus far are right on track with our original guidance expectations. as we discussed at the beginning of the year other income growth and bad debt improvement remain back half loaded and thus far are right on track with our original guidance expectations We continue to expect improvements in those areas of 70 basis points and 20 basis points, respectively. we continue to expect improvements in those areas of 70 basis points and 20 basis points respectively Turning to same store expenses, we've revised the midpoint of our expense guidance range down by 25 basis points. turning to same store expenses we've revised the midpoint of our expense guidance range down by 25 basis points This improvement is driven by better than anticipated real estate tax, insurance, and payroll growth, offset in part by higher utilities expenses. this improvement is driven by better than anticipated real estate tax insurance and payroll growth offset in part by higher utilities expenses As we noted in the release, utilities this year are suffering from both a difficult comparable period and higher commodity prices, along with elevated water and sewer charges. Those elevated water and sewer charges came from higher usage in Southern California as we dealt with mitigating wildfire risk earlier in the year. Outside of those categories, most of the other categories remain on plan. As a reminder before we move on from expenses, about 50 basis points of our total expense growth in 2025 is related to our bulk Wi-Fi rollout and is included in repairs and maintenance. This program is accretive to NOI growth given its other income contribution but is an outsized driver this year to expense growth. With these revenue and expense improvements, we are increasing our same store NOI growth midpoint by 30 basis points, which is in the top half of the prior range. As we noted in the release, utilities this year are suffering from both a difficult comparable period and higher commodity prices, along with elevated water and sewer charges. as we noted in the release utilities this year are suffering from both a difficult comparable period and higher commodity prices along with elevated water and sewer charges Those elevated water and sewer charges came from higher usage in Southern California as we dealt with mitigating wildfire risk earlier in the year. those elevated water and sewer charges came from higher usage in southern california as we dealt with mitigating wildfire risk earlier in the year Outside of those categories, most of the other categories remain on plan. outside of those categories most of the other categories remain on plan As a reminder before we move on from expenses, about 50 basis points of our total expense growth in 2025 is related to our bulk Wi-Fi rollout and is included in repairs and maintenance. as a reminder before we move on from expenses about 50 basis points of our total expense growth in 2025 is related to our bulk wi-fi rollout and is included in repairs and maintenance This program is accretive to NOI growth given its other income contribution but is an outsized driver this year to expense growth. this program is accretive to noi growth given its other income contribution but is an outsized driver this year to expense growth With these revenue and expense improvements, we are increasing our same store NOI growth midpoint by 30 basis points, which is in the top half of the prior range. with these revenue and expense improvements we are increasing our same store noi growth midpoint by 30 basis points which is in the top half of the prior range Before discussing FFO, I want to remind everyone of the expected cadence of same store revenue growth for the remainder of 2025. We continue to expect improvement in quarter over quarter same store revenue growth in the last two quarters of the year. This is driven by the compounding effect of positive blended rates and leasing activity from the first half of the year, strong continued physical occupancy, and back half loaded improvement from both bad debt and other income like I just discussed. Finally, we're increasing the midpoint of our NFFO range by $0.05 to the top end of our prior range. Before discussing FFO, I want to remind everyone of the expected cadence of same store revenue growth for the remainder of 2025. before discussing ffo i want to remind everyone of the expected cadence of same store revenue growth for the remainder of 2025 We continue to expect improvement in quarter over quarter same store revenue growth in the last two quarters of the year. we continue to expect improvement in quarter over quarter same store revenue growth in the last two quarters of the year This is driven by the compounding effect of positive blended rates and leasing activity from the first half of the year, strong continued physical occupancy, and back half loaded improvement from both bad debt and other income like I just discussed. this is driven by the compounding effect of positive blended rates and leasing activity from the first half of the year strong continued physical occupancy and back half loaded improvement from both bad debt and other income like i just discussed Finally, we're increasing the midpoint of our NFFO range by $0.05 to the top end of our prior range. finally we're increasing the midpoint of our nffo range by $0.05 to the top end of our prior range Page 2 of the release provides a.Detailed reconciliation of that change, but let me provide a little more color here. $0.02 of the improvement is coming from the same store adjustments I just described. $0.01 is coming from better performance in our lease-up portfolio, which is largely due to outsize performance in our suburban San Francisco lease-up and our suburban New York City lease-up, while other communities are largely in line with expectations. $0.02 of lower transaction activity NOI is reflected as well from our changes in our transaction activity guidance from $1.5 billion in acquisitions down to $1 billion. Performance from communities acquired thus far is in line with our underwriting and our original guidance. We also have $0.03 of lower interest expense due in part to that change in transaction volume as I described, and also slightly better refinancing rates. Finally, we have $0.01 of improvement from other items including overhead. Page 2 of the release provides a. page 2 of the release provides a Detailed reconciliation of that change, but let me provide a little more color here. $0.02 of the improvement is coming from the same store adjustments I just described. $0.01 is coming from better performance in our lease-up portfolio, which is largely due to outsize performance in our suburban San Francisco lease-up and our suburban New York City lease-up, while other communities are largely in line with expectations. $0.02 of lower transaction activity NOI is reflected as well from our changes in our transaction activity guidance from $1.5 billion in acquisitions down to $1 billion. detailed reconciliation of that change but let me provide a little more color here $0.02 of the improvement is coming from the same store adjustments i just described $0.01 is coming from better performance in our lease-up portfolio which is largely due to outsize performance in our suburban san francisco lease-up and our suburban new york city lease-up while other communities are largely in line with expectations $0.02 of lower transaction activity noi is reflected as well from our changes in our transaction activity guidance from $1.5 billion in acquisitions down to $1 billion Performance from communities acquired thus far is in line with our underwriting and our original guidance. performance from communities acquired thus far is in line with our underwriting and our original guidance We also have $0.03 of lower interest expense due in part to that change in transaction volume as I described, and also slightly better refinancing rates. we also have $0.03 of lower interest expense due in part to that change in transaction volume as i described and also slightly better refinancing rates Finally, we have $0.01 of improvement from other items including overhead. finally we have $0.01 of improvement from other items including overhead One final note before I turn it over to the operator: in the second quarter, we attractively refinanced our 2025 maturity. With the change in transaction activity guidance, we are not including any further debt issuance in our guidance given that we currently expect to match fund our $1 billion in acquisition activity with $1 billion in dispositions. Our next meaningful debt maturity is not until November of 2026. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator. One final note before I turn it over to the operator: in the second quarter, we attractively refinanced our 2025 maturity. one final note before i turn it over to the operator in the second quarter we attractively refinanced our 2025 maturity With the change in transaction activity guidance, we are not including any further debt issuance in our guidance given that we currently expect to match fund our $1 billion in acquisition activity with $1 billion in dispositions. with the change in transaction activity guidance we are not including any further debt issuance in our guidance given that we currently expect to match fund our $1 billion in acquisition activity with $1 billion in dispositions Our next meaningful debt maturity is not until November of 2026. our next meaningful debt maturity is not until november of 2026 With that, I'll turn it over to the operator. with that i'll turn it over to the operator
Speaker 12: Thank you. If you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star, one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow signal. To repeat, press star, one to ask a question. We'll pause for just a moment. We'll go first to Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. Thank you. thank you If you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star, one on your telephone keypad. if you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow signal. if you are using a speakerphone please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow signal To repeat, press star, one to ask a question. to repeat press star one to ask a question We'll pause for just a moment. we'll pause for just a moment We'll go first to Steve Sakwa with Evercore ISI. we'll go first to steve sakwa with evercore isi
Speaker 7: Thanks. Good morning. I realize we're a little bit out from the full 2026 guidance, but as you just sort of think about the pluses and minuses as you look out over the next 12-18 months, is the supply picture coming down able to offset maybe a slowing job market and what re the puts and takes as you think about growth into next year? Thanks. thanks Good morning. good morning I realize we're a little bit out from the full 2026 guidance, but as you just sort of think about the pluses and minuses as you look out over the next 12- 18 months, is the supply picture coming down able to offset maybe a slowing job market and what re the puts and takes as you t hink about growth into next year? i realize we're a little bit out from the full 2026 guidance but as you just sort of think about the pluses and minuses as you look out over the next 12- 18 months is the supply picture coming down able to offset maybe a slowing job market and what re the puts and takes as you t hink about growth into next year
Speaker 16: Hey Steve, this is Michael. I think I gave you a little bit of color just in the prepared remarks, like the setup that we see. I think for us, starting the year with a pretty normal kind of embedded growth, maintaining strong retention. If you think about what we just saw with some of the job reforecast and those numbers, I think for us the most important thing for next year is really how much less competitive supply we have. By competitive supply, I'm looking at the proximity of new supply within a one or three mile radius of our assets. We just have so much less new supply that's going to be needed to be absorbed in the markets. Hey Steve, this is Michael. hey steve this is michael I think I gave you a little bit of color just in the prepared remarks, like the setup that we see. i think i gave you a little bit of color just in the prepared remarks like the setup that we see I think for us, starting the year with a pretty normal kind of embedded growth, maintaining strong retention. i think for us starting the year with a pretty normal kind of embedded growth maintaining strong retention If you think about what we just saw with some of the job reforecast and those numbers, I think for us the most important thing for next year is really how much less competitive supply we have. if you think about what we just saw with some of the job reforecast and those numbers i think for us the most important thing for next year is really how much less competitive supply we have By competitive supply, I'm looking at the proximity of new supply within a one or three mile radius of our assets. by competitive supply i'm looking at the proximity of new supply within a one or three mile radius of our assets We just have so much less new supply that's going to be needed to be absorbed in the markets. we just have so much less new supply that's going to be needed to be absorbed in the markets I think at this point, any level of job growth that we see next year is just going to add pricing power, what we believe is a pretty solid setup for 2026. I think at this point, any level of job growth that we see next year is just going to add pricing power, what we believe is a pretty solid setup for 2026. i think at this point any level of job growth that we see next year is just going to add pricing power what we believe is a pretty solid setup for 2026
Speaker 7: Okay, thanks. Mark, maybe just bigger picture. You talked about your enthusiasm for San Francisco and New York. I'm not asking you to second guess your decision about moving into the expansion markets, but do you— Do you rethink sort of the mix of the portfolio? How do you maybe think longer term about the contribution from expansion markets versus the established markets, and are you likely to lean more into the established markets, or do you still feel like you need to get to that 80%-20% or 75%-25% next? Okay, thanks. okay thanks Mark, maybe just bigger picture. mark maybe just bigger picture You talked about your enthusiasm for San Francisco and New York. you talked about your enthusiasm for san francisco and new york I'm not asking you to second guess your decision about moving into the expansion markets, but do you— Do you rethink sort of the mix o f the portfolio? H ow do you maybe think longer term about the contribution from expansion markets versus the established markets, and are you likely to lean more into the established markets, or do you still feel like you need to get to that 80%-20% or 75%-25% next? i'm not asking you to second guess your decision about moving into the expansion markets but do you— do you rethink sort of the mix o f the portfolio? h ow do you maybe think longer term about the contribution from expansion markets versus the established markets and are you likely to lean more into the established markets or do you still feel like you need to get to that 80%-20% or 75%-25% next
Speaker 10: Yeah, thanks for that question, Steve. Appreciate that. The goal here is, as we said at the Investor Day, to build that kind of all-weather portfolio around our higher earning customer. Thinking about supply and demand, risks and opportunities, and of course regulation and resilience. Nothing that's happened has changed our perspective. Our view is that our portfolio is super well positioned for at least the next year and a half, given, as Michael said, the lack of supply and even the declines in supply. We're already in a low supply situation in San Francisco and next year is even better, and New York feels great. Those markets are doing their job. Meantime, these expansion markets which we chose, Denver, Dallas, Atlanta, and Austin, are suffering from supply. As we said in Investor Day, we knew that would happen. Yeah, thanks for that question, Steve. yeah thanks for that question steve Appreciate that. appreciate that The goal here is, as we said at the Investor Day, to build that kind of all-weather portfolio around our higher earning customer. the goal here is as we said at the investor day to build that kind of all-weather portfolio around our higher earning customer Thinking about supply and demand, risks and opportunities, and of course regulation and resilience. thinking about supply and demand risks and opportunities and of course regulation and resilience Nothing that's happened has changed our perspective. nothing that's happened has changed our perspective Our view is that our portfolio is super well positioned for at least the next year and a half, given, as Michael said, the lack of supply and even the declines in supply. our view is that our portfolio is super well positioned for at least the next year and a half given as michael said the lack of supply and even the declines in supply We're already in a low supply situation in San Francisco and next year is even better, and New York feels great. we're already in a low supply situation in san francisco and next year is even better and new york feels great Those markets are doing their job. those markets are doing their job Meantime, these expansion markets which we chose, Denver, Dallas, Atlanta, and Austin, are suffering from supply. meantime these expansion markets which we chose denver dallas atlanta and austin are suffering from supply As we said in Investor Day, we knew that would happen. as we said in investor day we knew that would happen They are good job growth markets and we think they will pick up. I will make a note though, maybe with the exception of Atlanta, we don't think next year is necessarily the year that all these markets are going to turn around that we're in. We think the Sun Belt recovery is much more about absorption than about delivery dates and that the lease up will take some time. They are good job growth markets and we think they will pick up. they are good job growth markets and we think they will pick up I will make a note though, maybe with the exception of Atlanta, we don't think next year is necessarily the year that all these markets are going to turn around that we're in. i will make a note though maybe with the exception of atlanta we don't think next year is necessarily the year that all these markets are going to turn around that we're in We think the Sun Belt recovery is much more about absorption than about delivery dates and that the lease up will take some time. we think the sun belt recovery is much more about absorption than about delivery dates and that the lease up will take some time To kind of sum it up, Steve, we think having that balance between suburban, urban, and most of our markets, New York will always be a little more urban, markets like Dallas always be more suburban, sticking near this higher end earning customer and have in balance because there'll be a day when these demand markets are a good place for us to be and we'll have some of that in our kind of recipe of portfolio or kind of, you know, what we're composed of and then we'll continue to have this drive from these urban centers. Again, I feel really good about where we are. We could have bought a lot more in these Sun Belt markets earlier and we'd be hurting right now. I think taking our time, being thoughtful, getting close to that 20% goal. To kind of sum it up, Steve, we think having that balance between suburban, urban, and most of our markets, New York will always be a little more urban, markets like Dallas always be more suburban, sticking near this higher end earning customer and have in balance because there'll be a day when these demand markets are a good place for us to be and we'll have some of that in our kind of recipe of portfolio or kind of, you know, what we're composed of and then we'll continue to have this drive from these urban centers. to kind of sum it up steve we think having that balance between suburban urban and most of our markets new york will always be a little more urban markets like dallas always be more suburban sticking near this higher end earning customer and have in balance because there'll be a day when these demand markets are a good place for us to be and we'll have some of that in our kind of recipe of portfolio or kind of you know what we're composed of and then we'll continue to have this drive from these urban centers Again, I feel really good about where we are. again i feel really good about where we are We could have bought a lot more in these Sun Belt markets earlier and we'd be hurting right now. we could have bought a lot more in these sun belt markets earlier and we'd be hurting right now I think taking our time, being thoughtful, getting close to that 20% goal. i think taking our time being thoughtful getting close to that 20% goal That goal is not one we're afraid to vary from if there's opportunity elsewhere. We'll keep moving along here, but we don't have a timeline we need to meet. That goal is not one we're afraid to vary from if there's opportunity elsewhere. that goal is not one we're afraid to vary from if there's opportunity elsewhere We'll keep moving along here, but we don't have a timeline we need to meet. we'll keep moving along here but we don't have a timeline we need to meet
Speaker 7: Thank you. Thank you. thank you
Speaker 10: Thank you. Thank you. thank you
Speaker 12: We'll take our next question from Jana Galan with Bank of America. We'll take our next question from Jana Galan with Bank of America. we'll take our next question from jana galan with bank of america
Speaker 2: Thank you. Good morning, Michael, thank you so much for the very thorough market overview. Can we just go back to Equity Residential's use of concessions this spring and summer leasing season relative to last year's and trying to understand if this kind of helps the setup for next spring on the renewal side? Thank you. thank you Good morning, Michael, thank you so much for the very thorough market overview. good morning michael thank you so much for the very thorough market overview Can we just go back to Equity Residential's use of concessions this spring and summer leasing season relative to last year's and trying to understand if this kind of helps the setup for next spring on the renewal side? can we just go back to equity residential's use of concessions this spring and summer leasing season relative to last year's and trying to understand if this kind of helps the setup for next spring on the renewal side
Speaker 16: Yeah. Hey, it's Michael. I guess I'll just frame up the concession use right now, which is on a cash basis. We use more concessions in the second quarter than we originally expected. You know, overall we averaged about seven days of concessions per move-in, which is down from the first quarter, but still about a day more than what we would have expected. The increase is driven by continued targeted liens into occupancy, along with some of the kind of more supply-impacted submarkets just having greater concession use than we originally thought. I think right now our view is that we're going to continue to see elevated concession use in the expansion markets. A few of the Los Angeles submarkets, hopefully Seattle and San Francisco, are going to continue to see this reduction in the pullback that we've seen. Yeah. yeah Hey, it's Michael. hey it's michael I guess I'll just frame up the concession use right now, which is on a cash basis. i guess i'll just frame up the concession use right now which is on a cash basis We use more concessions in the second quarter than we originally expected. we use more concessions in the second quarter than we originally expected You know, overall we averaged about seven days of concessions per move-in, which is down from the first quarter, but still about a day more than what we would have expected. you know overall we averaged about seven days of concessions per move-in which is down from the first quarter but still about a day more than what we would have expected The increase is driven by continued targeted liens into occupancy, along with some of the kind of more supply-impacted submarkets just having greater concession use than we originally thought. the increase is driven by continued targeted liens into occupancy along with some of the kind of more supply-impacted submarkets just having greater concession use than we originally thought I think right now our view is that we're going to continue to see elevated concession use in the expansion markets. i think right now our view is that we're going to continue to see elevated concession use in the expansion markets A few of the Los Angeles submarkets, hopefully Seattle and San Francisco, are going to continue to see this reduction in the pullback that we've seen. a few of the los angeles submarkets hopefully seattle and san francisco are going to continue to see this reduction in the pullback that we've seen If you think about the setup going into spring and even peak leasing season next year, if we start the year well positioned and we have, like I just mentioned to Steve, any bit of job growth, we really should see some kind of good rent acceleration against the backdrop of having all these folks from this year getting those concessions should drive some of that kind of net effective increase. If you think about the setup going into spring and even peak leasing season next year, if we start the year well positioned and we have, like I just mentioned to Steve, any bit of job growth, we really should see some kind of good rent acceleration against the backdrop of having all these folks from this year getting those concessions should drive some of that kind of net effective increase. if you think about the setup going into spring and even peak leasing season next year if we start the year well positioned and we have like i just mentioned to steve any bit of job growth we really should see some kind of good rent acceleration against the backdrop of having all these folks from this year getting those concessions should drive some of that kind of net effective increase
Speaker 2: Thank you. On greater Washington D.C. specifically, is there any slight differentiation between the District and Northern Virginia, or right now are they pretty similar in terms of what you're seeing in terms of demand? Thank you. thank you On greater Washington D.C. specifically, is there any slight differentiation between the District and Northern Virginia, or right now are they pretty similar in terms of what you're seeing in terms of demand? on greater washington d.c specifically is there any slight differentiation between the district and northern virginia or right now are they pretty similar in terms of what you're seeing in terms of demand
Speaker 16: Yeah, I think I would say for us it's more systemic. The District, clearly we have, I think, 12 properties right now. We're feeling a little bit of that softness there. When I look into the Northern Virginia submarket, it's really kind of isolated pockets in the RBC corridor that you're feeling some of that pressure. D.C. had just such strong momentum in the first half of the year. It really wasn't until we got into that late June and July period where we started to feel a little bit of this softening or a pause. Like I said in the prepared remarks, the minute we pulled back on some of that rate acceleration, we saw that demand come back and we're able to recapture some of that occupancy. I think for us, this remains kind of one of these watch markets, right? We get a lot of headlines. Yeah, I think I would say for us it's more systemic. yeah i think i would say for us it's more systemic The District, clearly we have, I think, 12 properties right now. the district clearly we have i think 12 properties right now We're feeling a little bit of that softness there. we're feeling a little bit of that softness there When I look into the Northern Virginia submarket, it's really kind of isolated pockets in the RBC corridor that you're feeling some of that pressure. when i look into the northern virginia submarket it's really kind of isolated pockets in the rbc corridor that you're feeling some of that pressure D.C. had just such strong momentum in the first half of the year. d.c had just such strong momentum in the first half of the year It really wasn't until we got into that late June and July period where we started to feel a little bit of this softening or a pause. it really wasn't until we got into that late june and july period where we started to feel a little bit of this softening or a pause Like I said in the prepared remarks, the minute we pulled back on some of that rate acceleration, we saw that demand come back and we're able to recapture some of that occupancy. like i said in the prepared remarks the minute we pulled back on some of that rate acceleration we saw that demand come back and we're able to recapture some of that occupancy I think for us, this remains kind of one of these watch markets, right? i think for us this remains kind of one of these watch markets right We get a lot of headlines. we get a lot of headlines You got a lot of the kind of government layoffs that will kick into gear here in September, and we just need to keep our eyes on it. You got a lot of the kind of government layoffs that will kick into gear here in September, and we just need to keep our eyes on it. you got a lot of the kind of government layoffs that will kick into gear here in september and we just need to keep our eyes on it
Speaker 12: Thank you. We'll take our next question from Eric Wolfe with Citi. Thank you. thank you We'll take our next question from Eric Wolfe with Citi. we'll take our next question from eric wolfe with citi
Speaker 3: Hey, thanks. You discussed some of the dynamics for the setup for 2026, to the extent that renewals have performed a bit better than expected compared to new leases, is it setting up for a situatio where your gain to lease is a bit bigger than normal at year end and thus could impact 2026 or is that not the right way to think about it? Hey, thanks. hey thanks You discussed some of the dynamics for the setup for 2026, to the extent that renewals have performed a bit b etter than expected compared to new leases, is it setting up for a situatio w here your gain to lease is a bit bigger than normal at year end and thus could impact 2026 or i s that not the right way to think about it? you discussed some of the dynamics for the setup for 2026 to the extent that renewals have performed a bit b etter than expected compared to new leases is it setting up for a situatio w here your gain to lease is a bit bigger than normal at year end and thus could impact 2026 or i s that not the right way to think about it
Speaker 16: Hey Eric, it's Michael. Right now, I guess I would tell you the portfolio has a loss to lease of about 2.6%. Kind of did what you thought. We started the year at a moderate gain. As rent acceleration kicked in, it flipped us into the loss. Right now the loss is probably 50-100 basis points lower than what you would expect, and that's really just from the dampening effect of July not getting up to that peak level. As I think about the rest of the year, we do expect normal rent deceleration to occur in the third quarter and even into the fourth quarter. At this point I wouldn't be surprised to see us back into a moderate gain. I don't think we're going to see anything that's really well outside the realm of norm. Hey Eric, it's Michael. hey eric it's michael Right now, I guess I would tell you the portfolio has a loss to lease of about 2.6%. right now i guess i would tell you the portfolio has a loss to lease of about 2.6% Kind of did what you thought. kind of did what you thought We started the year at a moderate gain. we started the year at a moderate gain As rent acceleration kicked in, it flipped us into the loss. as rent acceleration kicked in it flipped us into the loss Right now the loss is probably 50- 100 basis points lower than what you would expect, and that's really just from the dampening effect of July not getting up to that peak level. right now the loss is probably 50- 100 basis points lower than what you would expect and that's really just from the dampening effect of july not getting up to that peak level As I think about the rest of the year, we do expect normal rent deceleration to occur in the third quarter and even into the fourth quarter. as i think about the rest of the year we do expect normal rent deceleration to occur in the third quarter and even into the fourth quarter At this point I wouldn't be surprised to see us back into a moderate gain. at this point i wouldn't be surprised to see us back into a moderate gain I don't think we're going to see anything that's really well outside the realm of norm. i don't think we're going to see anything that's really well outside the realm of norm
Speaker 3: That's helpful. I believe you said a. ago you said that you don't really see the Sun Belt recovering that much next year. I guess I just wanted to dig into that further because it does seem absorption has been very strong in those markets supply's coming down next year. If I think back to some of your acquisitions, I thought might be.I thought year two is expected to see some pretty big rent gains. I was just trying to understand if that sort of view on the Sun Belt was a change and what drove that change. That's helpful. that's helpful I believe you said a. ago you said that you don't really see the Sun Belt recovering that much next year. i believe you said a ago you said that you don't really see the sun belt recovering that much next year I guess I just wanted to dig i nto that further because it does seem a bsorption has been very strong in those markets s upply's coming down next year. i guess i just wanted to dig i nto that further because it does seem a bsorption has been very strong in those markets s upply's coming down next year If I think back to some o f your acquisitions, I thought might be. if i think back to some o f your acquisitions i thought might be I thought year two is expected to see some pretty big rent gains. i thought year two is expected to see some pretty big rent gains I was just trying to understand if that sort of view on the Sun Belt was a change and what drove that change. i was just trying to understand if that sort of view on the sun belt was a change and what drove that change
Speaker 17: Hey Eric, it's Alec. It's really a property by property, submarket by submarket consideration. There are certainly pockets. They're seeing very, very little supply. A lot of the properties that we bought that are entering same store are in that condition. I think that we will hit our pro formas. We're on track to do that now and we do expect to see recovery. There are certainly other markets, you know, Austin is an example where we have three properties, but other markets like Nashville and Charlotte and Phoenix that just have this overhang of units that still need to get absorbed. When we talk about the Sun Belt more broadly, it seems to us that the challenges are going to extend for in the 2027 in some cases. Hey Eric, it's Alec. hey eric it's alec It's really a property by property, submarket by submarket consideration. it's really a property by property submarket by submarket consideration There are certainly pockets. there are certainly pockets They're seeing very, very little supply. they're seeing very very little supply A lot of the properties that we bought that are entering same store are in that condition. a lot of the properties that we bought that are entering same store are in that condition I think that we will hit our pro formas. i think that we will hit our pro formas We're on track to do that now and we do expect to see recovery. we're on track to do that now and we do expect to see recovery There are certainly other markets, you know, Austin is an example where we have three properties, but other markets like Nashville and Charlotte and Phoenix that just have this overhang of units that still need to get absorbed. there are certainly other markets you know austin is an example where we have three properties but other markets like nashville and charlotte and phoenix that just have this overhang of units that still need to get absorbed When we talk about the Sun Belt more broadly, it seems to us that the challenges are going to extend for in the 2027 in some cases. when we talk about the sun belt more broadly it seems to us that the challenges are going to extend for in the 2027 in some cases
Speaker 3: Got it. Thank you. Got it. got it Thank you. thank you
Speaker 12: Moving next to Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho Securities. Moving next to Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho Securities. moving next to haendel st juste with mizuho securities
Speaker 9: Hi, this is Mike on for Haendel at Mizuho. My question is, can you talk more about your near term expectations and operating strategy for Washington D.C. and Los Angeles markets into the back half of the year? How much do you expect concessions to pick up from here? Hi, this is Mike on for Haendel at Mizuho. hi this is mike on for haendel at mizuho My question is, can you talk more about your near term expectations and operating s trategy for Washington D.C. and Los Angeles markets into the back half of the year? my question is can you talk more about your near term expectations and operating s trategy for washington d.c and los angeles markets into the back half of the year How much do you expect concessions to pick up from here? how much do you expect concessions to pick up from here
Speaker 16: Yeah. Hey Mike, this is Michael. I think in the Washington D.C. market we are going to have a bias right now towards maintaining the occupancy and what we see, concession use right now in the market, it is very isolated. There's still a lot of supply in Washington D.C. right now, but it's a dramatic drop off in 2026. I think for us we're going to watch just the level of competitiveness overall with the concession use in D.C. I do expect we'll see some kick into gear as we get into that shoulder period. Specific to L.A,, I think it really does vary as to which submarket we're talking about. It was a great surprise for us to see some momentum in West L.A. Yeah. yeah Hey Mike, this is Michael. hey mike this is michael I think in the Washington D.C. market we are going to have a bias right now towards maintaining the occupancy and what we see, concession use right now in the market, it is very isolated. i think in the washington d.c market we are going to have a bias right now towards maintaining the occupancy and what we see concession use right now in the market it is very isolated There's still a lot of supply in Washington D.C. right now, but it's a dramatic drop off in 2026. there's still a lot of supply in washington d.c right now but it's a dramatic drop off in 2026 I think for us we're going to watch just the level of competitiveness overall with the concession use in D.C. i think for us we're going to watch just the level of competitiveness overall with the concession use in d.c I do expect we'll see some kick into gear as we get into that shoulder period. i do expect we'll see some kick into gear as we get into that shoulder period Specific to L. specific to l A,, I think it really does vary as to which submarket we're talking about. a i think it really does vary as to which submarket we're talking about It was a great surprise for us to see some momentum in West L.A. it was a great surprise for us to see some momentum in west l.a As I said in my prepared remark, we haven't seen that in many quarters. I don't anticipate we're going to see a lot of concession use there. I think clearly in the Downtown, Koreatown, Mid-Wilshire, you're going to see concessions continue in full force probably for the balance of the year. As I said in my prepared remark, we haven't seen that in many quarters. as i said in my prepared remark we haven't seen that in many quarters I don't anticipate we're going to see a lot of concession use there. i don't anticipate we're going to see a lot of concession use there I think clearly in the Downtown, Koreatown, Mid-Wilshire, you're going to see concessions continue in full force probably for the balance of the year. i think clearly in the downtown koreatown mid-wilshire you're going to see concessions continue in full force probably for the balance of the year
Speaker 9: Thanks for that. Just one follow up,Where are you, you know, in terms of July real time leasing data, where are you sending renewals out for August? Thanks for that. thanks for that Just one follow up, Where are you, you know, in terms of July real time leasing data, where are you sending renewals out for August? just one follow up where are you you know in terms of july real time leasing data where are you sending renewals out for august
Speaker 16: July, August, September, yeah. For the next several months, all of the renewal quotes have been sent out, and we sent out anywhere just slightly over 6%. I think right now we would expect to achieve increases somewhere around 4.25%-4.5% on a net effective basis. We have a lot of great insights. We have a centralized renewal process right now, a lot of confidence in this renewal performance. Typically, this is the time of the year that we tend to lean into retention and tend to negotiate a little bit more as we enter into the shoulder period. At this point, we expect that's how we're going to operate the portfolio. Thank you. July, August, September, yeah. july august september yeah For the next several months, all of the renewal quotes have been sent out, and we sent out anywhere just slightly over 6%. for the next several months all of the renewal quotes have been sent out and we sent out anywhere just slightly over 6% I think right now we would expect to achieve increases somewhere around 4.25% - 4.5% on a net effective basis. i think right now we would expect to achieve increases somewhere around 4.25% - 4.5% on a net effective basis We have a lot of great insights. we have a lot of great insights We have a centralized renewal process right now, a lot of confidence in this renewal performance. we have a centralized renewal process right now a lot of confidence in this renewal performance Typically, this is the time of the year that we tend to lean into retention and tend to negotiate a little bit more as we enter into the shoulder period. typically this is the time of the year that we tend to lean into retention and tend to negotiate a little bit more as we enter into the shoulder period At this point, we expect that's how we're going to operate the portfolio. at this point we expect that's how we're going to operate the portfolio Thank you. thank you
Speaker 12: We'll go next to John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. We'll go next to John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. we'll go next to john kim with bmo capital markets
Speaker 15: Morning. I'm not sure if you addressed this, but is there an update on your blended lease guidance for the year? I know you provided third quarter, but just how does the year shake out with seasonality coming up? Morning. morning I'm not sure if you addressed this, but i s there an update on your b lended lease guidance for the year? i'm not sure if you addressed this, but i s there an update on your b lended lease guidance for the year I know you provided third quarter, but j ust how does the year shake out w ith seasonality coming up? i know you provided third quarter but j ust how does the year shake out w ith seasonality coming up
Speaker 16: Yeah. Hey John, this is Michael. Again, we gave the guidance range for the third quarter being 2.2%-2.8%, so a midpoint of 2.5%. That mirrors our year-to-date blended performance. I think sitting here today, I would tell you that at the beginning of the year, we gave a blended guidance range of 2%-3%, so a midpoint of 2.5%. I do think we're going to see some deceleration in the fourth quarter. Sitting here today, I would say we're probably pointed to that bottom half, anywhere between a 2%-2.5% for the full year blend now. Like 20, 30 basis points off. Yeah. yeah Hey John, this is Michael. hey john this is michael Again, we gave the guidance range for the third quarter being 2.2%- 2.8%, so a midpoint of 2.5%. again we gave the guidance range for the third quarter being 2.2%- 2.8% so a midpoint of 2.5% That mirrors our year-to-date blended performance. that mirrors our year-to-date blended performance I think sitting here today, I would tell you that at the beginning of the year, we gave a blended guidance range of 2%- 3%, so a midpoint of 2.5%. i think sitting here today i would tell you that at the beginning of the year we gave a blended guidance range of 2%- 3% so a midpoint of 2.5% I do think we're going to see some deceleration in the fourth quarter. i do think we're going to see some deceleration in the fourth quarter Sitting here today, I would say we're probably pointed to that bottom half, anywhere between a 2%- 2.5% for the full year blend now. sitting here today i would say we're probably pointed to that bottom half anywhere between a 2%- 2.5% for the full year blend now Like 20, 30 basis points off. like 20 30 basis points off
Speaker 15: Okay, great. Thank you. My second question is on cap rates you're seeing in the Sun Belt versus your more established markets. Do you anticipate more attractive opportunities, especially in markets like Washington D.C. and New York where there could be some political uncertainty? Okay, great. okay great Thank you. thank you My second question is on c ap rates you're seeing in the Sun Belt versus your more established markets. my second question is on c ap rates you're seeing in the sun belt versus your more established markets Do you anticipate more attractive opportunities, especially i n markets like Washington D.C. and New York w here there could be some political uncertainty? do you anticipate more attractive opportunities especially i n markets like washington d.c and new york w here there could be some political uncertainty
Speaker 17: Hey, John, it's Alec. Yeah, we're looking at all of our markets for opportunities, but we still want to balance the portfolio out. It would have to be a compelling opportunity for us to increase in a place that we already have a really good exposure. That could happen. I haven't seen it yet. You know, cap rates are around a 5% in most places and in some of the markets, you know, 4.75%, and particularly some of the expansion markets where people are perceiving that there will be more recovery. As I just said, some of these markets, we're just not so sure about the speed of that. We're out looking for opportunity every day. We would match that with dispositions that we also have in the market. Hey, John, it's Alec. hey john it's alec Yeah, we're looking at all of our markets for opportunities, but we still want to balance the portfolio out. yeah we're looking at all of our markets for opportunities but we still want to balance the portfolio out It would have to be a compelling opportunity for us to increase in a place that we already have a really good exposure. it would have to be a compelling opportunity for us to increase in a place that we already have a really good exposure That could happen. that could happen I haven't seen it yet. i haven't seen it yet You know, cap rates are around a 5% in most places and in some of the markets, you know, 4.75%, and particularly some of the expansion markets where people are perceiving that there will be more recovery. you know cap rates are around a 5% in most places and in some of the markets you know 4.75% and particularly some of the expansion markets where people are perceiving that there will be more recovery As I just said, some of these markets, we're just not so sure about the speed of that. as i just said some of these markets we're just not so sure about the speed of that We're out looking for opportunity every day. we're out looking for opportunity every day We would match that with dispositions that we also have in the market. we would match that with dispositions that we also have in the market
Speaker 15: Thank you. Thank you. thank you
Speaker 12: We'll go next to Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. We'll go next to Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. we'll go next to alexander goldfarb with piper sandler
Speaker 8: Thanks and good morning. Alec, best in retirement. Bob, best in CIO and welcome aboard, Brett. Two questions here. Mark, you mentioned the quality of life improvement that's really helped in San Francisco and Seattle. Obviously, in New York City, we're debating going the opposite way. At the same time, Adams' policies on rents with the regulated units would be a boost to market rate rents if you freeze the regulated part of the market. As you guys look at your New York exposure, do you view the rent freezes as a net positive and more than offsetting quality of life concerns, or are you more concerned about potential quality of life versus the ability to gain on market rents? Thanks and good morning. thanks and good morning Alec, best in retirement. alec best in retirement Bob, best in CIO and welcome aboard, Brett. bob best in cio and welcome aboard brett Two questions here. two questions here Mark, you mentioned the quality of life improvement that's really helped in San Francisco and Seattle. mark you mentioned the quality of life improvement that's really helped in san francisco and seattle Obviously, in New York City, we're debating going the opposite way. obviously in new york city we're debating going the opposite way At the same time, Adams' policies on rents with the regulated units would be a boost to market rate rents if you freeze the regulated part of the market. at the same time adams' policies on rents with the regulated units would be a boost to market rate rents if you freeze the regulated part of the market As you guys look at your New York exposure, do you view the rent freezes as a net positive and more than offsetting quality of life concerns, or are you more concerned about potential quality of life versus the ability to gain on market rents? as you guys look at your new york exposure do you view the rent freezes as a net positive and more than offsetting quality of life concerns or are you more concerned about potential quality of life versus the ability to gain on market rents
Speaker 10: Alex, thanks for those good wishes to the team. Yeah, we're thinking about all those things. Let me just talk about how we're thinking about the election and there is a fair bit of time to go until November. You know, Mr. Mamdani has spoken frequently about needing to increase the housing supply in New York for New Yorkers at all income levels. We have been working through the trade associations to just remind him and his staff about how important the private sector can be in meeting that goal. I mean, as a New Yorker, you know that public private partnerships like the 421a program and the Office to Residential Conversion programs have been really helpful in adding units to the market. Alex, thanks for those good wishes to the team. alex thanks for those good wishes to the team Yeah, we're thinking about all those things. yeah we're thinking about all those things Let me just talk about how we're thinking about the election and there is a fair bit of time to go until November. let me just talk about how we're thinking about the election and there is a fair bit of time to go until november You know, Mr. Mamdani has spoken frequently about needing to increase the housing supply in New York for New Yorkers at all income levels. you know mr mamdani has spoken frequently about needing to increase the housing supply in new york for new yorkers at all income levels We have been working through the trade associations to just remind him and his staff about how important the private sector can be in meeting that goal. we have been working through the trade associations to just remind him and his staff about how important the private sector can be in meeting that goal I mean, as a New Yorker, you know that public private partnerships like the 421a program and the Office to Residential Conversion programs have been really helpful in adding units to the market. i mean as a new yorker you know that public private partnerships like the 421a program and the office to residential conversion programs have been really helpful in adding units to the market We are also trying to get across the point that to the extent you freeze rents or do other things that are anti housing, you're going to discourage capital in New York. That's going to mean that fewer units are preserved and fewer units are created. We're having those kinds of conversations again. There's a while to go to the elections. Just to remind everyone, a lot of the power on rent control and a lot of other big issues rests in Albany, not in the mayor's office. The amount of things that can be done is a little bit more limited than maybe the campaign rhetoric. We have a relatively small percentage of our New York portfolio that would be subject to any changes in the rent stabilization increase rate. Yeah. We are also trying to get across the point that to the extent you freeze rents or do other things that are anti housing, you're going to discourage capital in New York. we are also trying to get across the point that to the extent you freeze rents or do other things that are anti housing you're going to discourage capital in new york That's going to mean that fewer units are preserved and fewer units are created. that's going to mean that fewer units are preserved and fewer units are created We're having those kinds of conversations again. we're having those kinds of conversations again There's a while to go to the elections. there's a while to go to the elections Just to remind everyone, a lot of the power on rent control and a lot of other big issues rests in Albany, not in the mayor's office. just to remind everyone a lot of the power on rent control and a lot of other big issues rests in albany not in the mayor's office The amount of things that can be done is a little bit more limited than maybe the campaign rhetoric. the amount of things that can be done is a little bit more limited than maybe the campaign rhetoric We have a relatively small percentage of our New York portfolio that would be subject to any changes in the rent stabilization increase rate. we have a relatively small percentage of our new york portfolio that would be subject to any changes in the rent stabilization increase rate Yeah. yeah You know, here in Chicago we have a new mayor and, you know, quality of life here has actually improved over the last year. We think that the dialogue has shifted and we think people of all political stripes are interested in improvements in quality of life and balancing both justice and personal security. We're hopeful, Alec, that that continues and New York keeps making good progress there and we'll keep pushing with the potential mayor's office to discuss the benefits of housing supply versus overregulation. You know, here in Chicago we have a new mayor and, you know, quality of life here has actually improved over the last year. you know here in chicago we have a new mayor and you know quality of life here has actually improved over the last year We think that the dialogue has shifted and we think people of all political stripes are interested in improvements in quality of life and balancing both justice and personal security. we think that the dialogue has shifted and we think people of all political stripes are interested in improvements in quality of life and balancing both justice and personal security We're hopeful, Alec, that that continues and New York keeps making good progress there and we'll keep pushing with the potential mayor's office to discuss the benefits of housing supply versus overregulation. we're hopeful alec that that continues and new york keeps making good progress there and we'll keep pushing with the potential mayor's office to discuss the benefits of housing supply versus overregulation
Speaker 8: Okay, the second question is, you know, you talked about Washington D.C. and Dallas, but Boston with the foreign students, clearly Boston's big college town. So just wondering if there's been any. Change in foreign student appetite given, you know, they are a part, an outsized part of that renter market. Okay, the second question is, you know, you talked about Washington D.C. and Dallas, but Boston with the foreign students, clearly Boston's big college town. So just wondering if there's been any. okay the second question is you know you talked about washington d.c and dallas but boston with the foreign students clearly boston's big college town. so just wondering if there's been any Change in foreign student appetite given, you know, they are a part, an outsized part of that renter market. change in foreign student appetite given you know they are a part an outsized part of that renter market
Speaker 16: Hey, Alec, it's Michael. We've been watching, you know, first students is a pretty low % of our move-ins overall in the company. They represent about 3% of our occupied units. We still have about another month to really track all of the inbound student activity sitting here today. As a snapshot for Boston, it does appear that the student inbound activity through the end of July is a little bit below normal, a little bit below where we were at the end of July of 2024. Inside that, we do see a little bit of softening in the foreign inbound migration as well. These are very small quantities, though, so I don't know if I would read too much into it yet. Like I said, we still have a month to go until we really close out kind of that student season. Hey, Alec, it's Michael. hey alec it's michael We've been watching, you know, first students is a pretty low % of our move-ins overall in the company. we've been watching you know first students is a pretty low % of our move-ins overall in the company They represent about 3% of our occupied units. they represent about 3% of our occupied units We still have about another month to really track all of the inbound student activity sitting here today. we still have about another month to really track all of the inbound student activity sitting here today As a snapshot for Boston, it does appear that the student inbound activity through the end of July is a little bit below normal, a little bit below where we were at the end of July of 2024. as a snapshot for boston it does appear that the student inbound activity through the end of july is a little bit below normal a little bit below where we were at the end of july of 2024 Inside that, we do see a little bit of softening in the foreign inbound migration as well. inside that we do see a little bit of softening in the foreign inbound migration as well These are very small quantities, though, so I don't know if I would read too much into it yet. these are very small quantities though so i don't know if i would read too much into it yet Like I said, we still have a month to go until we really close out kind of that student season. like i said we still have a month to go until we really close out kind of that student season
Speaker 12: We'll go next to Michael Goldsmith with UBS. We'll go next to Michael Goldsmith with UBS. we'll go next to michael goldsmith with ubs
Speaker 14: Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Generally it seems like the demand is there, but I guess I was just kind of wondering what do you think it would take to see a little bit more pricing power. Good morning. good morning Thanks a lot for taking my question. thanks a lot for taking my question Generally it seems like the demand is there, but I guess I was just kind of wondering what do you think it would take to see a little b it more pricing power. generally it seems like the demand is there but i guess i was just kind of wondering what do you think it would take to see a little b it more pricing power
Speaker 16: Michael, it's Michael. At this time of the year, it's not very common to all of a sudden see acceleration into pricing power. I think clearly we would need to see some consumer confidence improve in many of the markets and any kind of acceleration in job growth. That being said, we are going to go into a period where we do have easier comps in many of our major markets, and we have a period of time where we're bumping up against less and less supply pressure. That could be a kind of mitigating factor to normal deceleration trends. At this time, I don't anticipate us seeing kind of acceleration. Michael, it's Michael. michael, it's michael At this time of the year, it's not very common to all of a sudden see acceleration into pricing power. at this time of the year it's not very common to all of a sudden see acceleration into pricing power I think clearly we would need to see some consumer confidence improve in many of the markets and any kind of acceleration in job growth. i think clearly we would need to see some consumer confidence improve in many of the markets and any kind of acceleration in job growth That being said, we are going to go into a period where we do have easier comps in many of our major markets, and we have a period of time where we're bumping up against less and less supply pressure. that being said we are going to go into a period where we do have easier comps in many of our major markets and we have a period of time where we're bumping up against less and less supply pressure That could be a kind of mitigating factor to normal deceleration trends. that could be a kind of mitigating factor to normal deceleration trends At this time, I don't anticipate us seeing kind of acceleration. at this time i don't anticipate us seeing kind of acceleration
Speaker 14: Got it. As a follow up, have you seen any impact on San Francisco ban of algorithmic pricing? Has that had any impact yet? Thanks. Got it. As a follow up, have you s een any impact on San Francisco b an of algorithmic pricing? got it. as a follow up have you s een any impact on san francisco b an of algorithmic pricing Has that had any impact yet? has that had any impact yet Thanks. thanks
Speaker 10: Yeah, so I think I heard the question right. It was algorithmic pricing. In San Francisco, there are various proposals in all sorts of jurisdictions on this. First off, we do obviously operate in full compliance with all these rules, and it's not a big issue for us. We do use across the portfolio LRO, where we're allowed to. Generally speaking, LRO, which is our yield management tool, is just one tool in the toolbox. We use a lot of different means to price our units, and it just doesn't matter a great deal to us if we can't use LRO going forward. I will say, though, it seems like these sort of regulatory efforts are more of us attacking a symptom of the problem of a housing shortage. It isn't algorithmic pricing that makes rents go up and down. Yeah, so I think I heard the question right. yeah so i think i heard the question right It was algorithmic pricing. it was algorithmic pricing In San Francisco, there are various proposals in all sorts of jurisdictions on this. in san francisco there are various proposals in all sorts of jurisdictions on this First off, we do obviously operate in full compliance with all these rules, and it's not a big issue for us. first off we do obviously operate in full compliance with all these rules and it's not a big issue for us We do use across the portfolio LRO, where we're allowed to. we do use across the portfolio lro where we're allowed to Generally speaking, LRO, which is our yield management tool, is just one tool in the toolbox. generally speaking lro which is our yield management tool is just one tool in the toolbox We use a lot of different means to price our units, and it just doesn't matter a great deal to us if we can't use LRO going forward. we use a lot of different means to price our units and it just doesn't matter a great deal to us if we can't use lro going forward I will say, though, it seems like these sort of regulatory efforts are more of us attacking a symptom of the problem of a housing shortage. i will say though it seems like these sort of regulatory efforts are more of us attacking a symptom of the problem of a housing shortage It isn't algorithmic pricing that makes rents go up and down. it isn't algorithmic pricing that makes rents go up and down Dallas has declining rents and there's plenty of people using algorithmic pricing there. It's the dynamic between supply and demand. The markets that add supply are going to have less of this kind of outsized rent growth. I feel like we need to educate policymakers that while it may feel emotionally rewarding to ban algorithmic pricing, that isn't what's causing rents to go up, it's the supply and demand dynamics in these markets. We'll work with our trade associations to do that, but it isn't going to make a great deal of difference to us and how we price our units. Dallas has declining rents and there's plenty of people using algorithmic pricing there. dallas has declining rents and there's plenty of people using algorithmic pricing there It's the dynamic between supply and demand. it's the dynamic between supply and demand The markets that add supply are going to have less of this kind of outsized rent growth. the markets that add supply are going to have less of this kind of outsized rent growth I feel like we need to educate policymakers that while it may feel emotionally rewarding to ban algorithmic pricing, that isn't what's causing rents to go up, it's the supply and demand dynamics in these markets. i feel like we need to educate policymakers that while it may feel emotionally rewarding to ban algorithmic pricing that isn't what's causing rents to go up it's the supply and demand dynamics in these markets We'll work with our trade associations to do that, but it isn't going to make a great deal of difference to us and how we price our units. we'll work with our trade associations to do that but it isn't going to make a great deal of difference to us and how we price our units
Speaker 14: Thank you very much. Thank you very much. thank you very much
Speaker 12: Next to Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley. Next to Adam Kramer with Morgan Stanley. next to adam kramer with morgan stanley
Speaker 18: Hey, great. Thanks for the time and all the best to you, Alec, going forward, I just wanted to ask about there have been a few articles recently about AI and the impacts on, call it, entry level jobs and, you know, I think both in types of employment that you would think would be disrupted by AI, but also other types of jobs as well, focusing on an entry level demographic. I know that's disproportionately a renter kind of demographic. Wondering if you've seen anything in your portfolio, demand wise, that can maybe see if AI is having a real impact here or maybe these articles are a little bit off base? Hey, great. hey great Thanks for the time and all the best to you, Alec, going forward, I just wanted to ask about t here have been a few articles recently about AI and the impacts on, call it, entry level jobs and, you know, I think both in types of employment that you would think would be disrupted by AI, but also other types of jobs as well, focusing on an entry level demographic. thanks for the time and all the best to you alec going forward i just wanted to ask about t here have been a few articles recently about ai and the impacts on call it entry level jobs and you know i think both in types of employment that you would think would be disrupted by ai but also other types of jobs as well focusing on an entry level demographic I know that's disproportionately a renter kind of demographic. i know that's disproportionately a renter kind of demographic Wondering if you've seen anything in your portfolio, demand wise, that can maybe see if AI is having a real impact here or maybe these articles are a l ittle bit off base? wondering if you've seen anything in your portfolio demand wise that can maybe see if ai is having a real impact here or maybe these articles are a l ittle bit off base
Speaker 10: Yeah, thanks. That's a really interesting question and I think we're in the early innings of determining the impact of AI. I think as you heard from Michael Manelis' remarks, we do see the impact of AI and demand in San Francisco and that's why it's good for us to be levered to these tech hubs as well as to markets that are maybe more broadly diversified like Los Angeles or Atlanta. We do see some benefit to the portfolio already from the money and the hiring being done to get these big large models moving and proving. I think it's a little early to tell whether AI will affect, you know, entry level lawyer employment and other people that do occupy our units throughout the country. Yeah, thanks. yeah thanks That's a really interesting question and I think we're in the early innings of determining the impact of AI. that's a really interesting question and i think we're in the early innings of determining the impact of ai I think as you heard from Michael Manelis' remarks, we do see the impact of AI and demand in San Francisco and that's why it's good for us to be levered to these tech hubs as well as to markets that are maybe more broadly diversified like Los Angeles or Atlanta. i think as you heard from michael manelis' remarks we do see the impact of ai and demand in san francisco and that's why it's good for us to be levered to these tech hubs as well as to markets that are maybe more broadly diversified like los angeles or atlanta We do see some benefit to the portfolio already from the money and the hiring being done to get these big large models moving and proving. we do see some benefit to the portfolio already from the money and the hiring being done to get these big large models moving and proving I think it's a little early to tell whether AI will affect, you know, entry level lawyer employment and other people that do occupy our units throughout the country. i think it's a little early to tell whether ai will affect you know entry level lawyer employment and other people that do occupy our units throughout the country I do wonder if there aren't going to be a whole new class of jobs created relating to AI governance, relating to how you ask the model questions and how you deal with it and outputs. What I've heard from some investment analysts and others is it's great to ask the model questions and it's great to check those answers very thoroughly with your analyst afterwards. I think the job story is still to be written on AI in the country as a whole, but we're happy to be levered to where those jobs are being created like in San Francisco right now. I do wonder if there aren't going to be a whole new class of jobs created relating to AI governance, relating to how you ask the model questions and how you deal with it and outputs. i do wonder if there aren't going to be a whole new class of jobs created relating to ai governance relating to how you ask the model questions and how you deal with it and outputs What I've heard from some investment analysts and others is it's great to ask the model questions and it's great to check those answers very thoroughly with your analyst afterwards. what i've heard from some investment analysts and others is it's great to ask the model questions and it's great to check those answers very thoroughly with your analyst afterwards I think the job story is still to be written on AI in the country as a whole, but we're happy to be levered to where those jobs are being created like in San Francisco right now. i think the job story is still to be written on ai in the country as a whole but we're happy to be levered to where those jobs are being created like in san francisco right now
Speaker 18: Great, that's really helpful, Mark. Thank you. Maybe as a second one here just on capital allocation recognizing sort of the acquisition guidance was reduced as positions maintained. I think you guys have been pretty clear in the past on sort of your view around buybacks, your view around development and only wanting to sort of use retained cash flow for development. Just wondering as you sit here today, you know, how would you sort of stack rank the capital allocation opportunities, the capital use opportunities and sort of any change to the prior thinking with regards to buybacks, development or maybe something else here? Great, that's really helpful, Mark. great that's really helpful mark Thank you. thank you Maybe as a second one here just on capital allocation recognizing sort of the acquisition guidance was reduced as positions maintained. maybe as a second one here just on capital allocation recognizing sort of the acquisition guidance was reduced as positions maintained I think you guys have been pretty clear in the past on sort of your view around buybacks, your view around development and only wanting to sort of use retained cash flow for development. i think you guys have been pretty clear in the past on sort of your view around buybacks your view around development and only wanting to sort of use retained cash flow for development Just wondering as you sit here today, you know, how would you sort of stack rank the capital allocation opportunities, the capital use opportunities and sort of any change to the prior thinking with regards to buybacks, development or maybe something else here? just wondering as you sit here today you know how would you sort of stack rank the capital allocation opportunities the capital use opportunities and sort of any change to the prior thinking with regards to buybacks development or maybe something else here
Speaker 10: Yeah, thanks Adam. It's Mark again. Alec may supplement this a little. We continue to think about acquisition opportunities, if priced correctly, as helping us attain that goal in a balanced portfolio I talked about and driving better cash flow growth over time. We think that is a good use of capital. Those acquisitions have been priced very dearly in the markets and submarkets we're interested in. We will remain really thoughtful. We're looking really hard at some deals, local supply and demand conditions where we can buy at discounts to replacement costs. We've been very disciplined on that. We do long term still like buying in the submarkets and markets we've talked to you about, you know, Dallas, Denver, Atlanta, suburban Seattle, suburban Boston, maybe some suburban Washington D.C. We will keep focused there, that is going to be a goal. We're open to doing buybacks. Yeah, thanks Adam. yeah thanks adam It's Mark again. it's mark again Alec may supplement this a little. alec may supplement this a little We continue to think about acquisition opportunities, if priced correctly, as helping us attain that goal in a balanced portfolio I talked about and driving better cash flow growth over time. we continue to think about acquisition opportunities if priced correctly as helping us attain that goal in a balanced portfolio i talked about and driving better cash flow growth over time We think that is a good use of capital. we think that is a good use of capital Those acquisitions have been priced very dearly in the markets and submarkets we're interested in. those acquisitions have been priced very dearly in the markets and submarkets we're interested in We will remain really thoughtful. we will remain really thoughtful We're looking really hard at some deals, local supply and demand conditions where we can buy at discounts to replacement costs. we're looking really hard at some deals local supply and demand conditions where we can buy at discounts to replacement costs We've been very disciplined on that. we've been very disciplined on that We do long term still like buying in the submarkets and markets we've talked to you about, you know, Dallas, Denver, Atlanta, suburban Seattle, suburban Boston, maybe some suburban Washington D.C. we do long term still like buying in the submarkets and markets we've talked to you about you know dallas denver atlanta suburban seattle suburban boston maybe some suburban washington d.c We will keep focused there, that is going to be a goal. we will keep focused there that is going to be a goal We're open to doing buybacks. we're open to doing buybacks We did some, as you know, in late 2023 and early 2024. If we were to do buybacks, we would fund those with asset sales. I think that's more prudent right now than incurring additional debt. You can see that we've been selling some of our lower return assets at this point in the high fours to low to mid five cap rate range. When you compare that to where our stock's trading, that's a meaningful amount of value creation for shareholders. We do need to stay conscious though on the buyback side about descaling the company. We've talked on some of the calls, I know you know this, that you can really create pressures on overhead and operating expenses by getting the portfolios too small in a particular market. That's something to be mindful of. We did some, as you know, in late 2023 and early 2024. we did some as you know in late 2023 and early 2024 If we were to do buybacks, we would fund those with asset sales. if we were to do buybacks we would fund those with asset sales I think that's more prudent right now than incurring additional debt. i think that's more prudent right now than incurring additional debt You can see that we've been selling some of our lower return assets at this point in the high fours to low to mid five cap rate range. you can see that we've been selling some of our lower return assets at this point in the high fours to low to mid five cap rate range When you compare that to where our stock's trading, that's a meaningful amount of value creation for shareholders. when you compare that to where our stock's trading that's a meaningful amount of value creation for shareholders We do need to stay conscious though on the buyback side about descaling the company. we do need to stay conscious though on the buyback side about descaling the company We've talked on some of the calls, I know you know this, that you can really create pressures on overhead and operating expenses by getting the portfolios too small in a particular market. we've talked on some of the calls i know you know this that you can really create pressures on overhead and operating expenses by getting the portfolios too small in a particular market That's something to be mindful of. that's something to be mindful of We also have a lot of gain in a lot of our assets, tax gain, and again that's kind of a natural limiter on how much dispositions can fund share buybacks. We're also looking at some development deals. I think risk adjusted, you need to be super thoughtful about development. We're glad given circumstances we have a small development platform. We only have about $200 million of funding that we need to do yet to finish the three assets that are still in flight. We're looking at some development deals and in some locations we think have particularly good dynamics. You may see us start a few of those. Those are the big three that we're kind of balancing out. I don't know, Alec, if there's anything you'd add. We also have a lot of gain in a lot of our assets, tax gain, and again that's kind of a natural limiter on how much dispositions can fund share buybacks. we also have a lot of gain in a lot of our assets tax gain and again that's kind of a natural limiter on how much dispositions can fund share buybacks We're also looking at some development deals. we're also looking at some development deals I think risk adjusted, you need to be super thoughtful about development. i think risk adjusted you need to be super thoughtful about development We're glad given circumstances we have a small development platform. we're glad given circumstances we have a small development platform We only have about $200 million of funding that we need to do yet to finish the three assets that are still in flight. we only have about $200 million of funding that we need to do yet to finish the three assets that are still in flight We're looking at some development deals and in some locations we think have particularly good dynamics. we're looking at some development deals and in some locations we think have particularly good dynamics You may see us start a few of those. you may see us start a few of those Those are the big three that we're kind of balancing out. those are the big three that we're kind of balancing out I don't know, Alec, if there's anything you'd add. i don't know alec if there's anything you'd add
Speaker 17: Yeah, I just say we supplement that by investing in our existing portfolio. We have renovations going on throughout the country. Specific to California, we're participating in the accessory dwelling unit program, ADUs, throughout that state. So keeping portfolio fresh that way. Yeah, I just say we supplement that by investing in our existing portfolio. yeah i just say we supplement that by investing in our existing portfolio We have renovations going on throughout the country. we have renovations going on throughout the country Specific to California, we're participating in the accessory dwelling unit program, ADUs, throughout that state. So k eeping portfolio fresh that way. specific to california we're participating in the accessory dwelling unit program adus throughout that state. so k eeping portfolio fresh that way
Speaker 18: Great. Thanks for the time. Great. great Thanks for the time. thanks for the time
Speaker 12: We'll go next to Alex Kim with Zelman and Associates. We'll go next to Alex Kim with Zelman and Associates. we'll go next to alex kim with zelman and associates
Speaker 19: Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question here. With the forecasted deceleration of rent growth for the back half of the year, just curious, what factors are you most closely tracking to determine upside or downside of your assumptions, and how does that compare to historical norms? Hey, guys, thanks for taking my question here. hey guys thanks for taking my question here With the forecasted deceleration of rent growth for the back half of the year, just curious, what factors are you most closely tracking to determine upside or downside of your assumptions, and how does that compare to historical norms? with the forecasted deceleration of rent growth for the back half of the year just curious what factors are you most closely tracking to determine upside or downside of your assumptions and how does that compare to historical norms
Speaker 16: Yeah. Hey, Alex. Michael. I think there's a lot of things that we're watching all the time, and I think we don't have—we have multiple levers that we're looking at, which is the goals to maximize cash flow, revenue growth for the shareholders. Right now, as I think about rent seasonality, I'm looking at just pricing trends. What does normal rent seasonality look like? How do rents sequentially decelerate as you leave the peak leasing season into the shoulder period? How are we doing with retention? What are we seeing, hearing, feeling from new prospects showing up at our properties? Are they taking longer to make decisions, et cetera? There's a lot of factors that go into that, that kind of, what I would say, force us to lean one direction or the other, favor rate, favor holding on to rate, favor occupancy, et cetera. Yeah. yeah Hey, Alex. hey alex Michael. michael I think there's a lot of things that we're watching all the time, and I think we don't have—we have multiple levers that we're looking at, which is the goals to maximize cash flow, revenue growth for the shareholders. i think there's a lot of things that we're watching all the time and i think we don't have—we have multiple levers that we're looking at which is the goals to maximize cash flow revenue growth for the shareholders Right now, as I think about rent seasonality, I'm looking at just pricing trends. right now as i think about rent seasonality i'm looking at just pricing trends What does normal rent seasonality look like? what does normal rent seasonality look like How do rents sequentially decelerate as you leave the peak leasing season into the shoulder period? how do rents sequentially decelerate as you leave the peak leasing season into the shoulder period How are we doing with retention? how are we doing with retention What are we seeing, hearing, feeling from new prospects showing up at our properties? what are we seeing hearing feeling from new prospects showing up at our properties Are they taking longer to make decisions, et cetera? are they taking longer to make decisions et cetera There's a lot of factors that go into that, that kind of, what I would say, force us to lean one direction or the other, favor rate, favor holding on to rate, favor occupancy, et cetera. there's a lot of factors that go into that that kind of what i would say force us to lean one direction or the other favor rate favor holding on to rate favor occupancy et cetera There's no one lever that I would say has more weight than the other. Right now, we're looking at all of these combined to get a feel as to where do we sit relative to expectations for where we are in the season. There's no one lever that I would say has more weight than the other. there's no one lever that i would say has more weight than the other Right now, we're looking at all of these combined to get a feel as to where do we sit relative to expectations for where we are in the season. right now we're looking at all of these combined to get a feel as to where do we sit relative to expectations for where we are in the season
Speaker 19: Sure. Okay. For my second question, you cited the excellent rent-to-income ratios that you've been seeing within your portfolio. Just kind of combining that with the deceleration in job growth, any concerns that the level of demand isn't sustainable, or is it the opposite way around, where you're able to push rents in an environment where the macro economy is a little weaker and maybe others take a little softer stance? Sure. Okay. sure. okay For my second question, you cited the excellent rent-to-income ratios that you've been seeing within your portfolio. for my second question you cited the excellent rent-to-income ratios that you've been seeing within your portfolio Just kind of combining that with the deceleration in job growth, any concerns that the level of demand isn't sustainable, or is it the opposite way around, where you're able to push rents in an environment where the macro economy is a little weaker and maybe others take a little softer stance? just kind of combining that with the deceleration in job growth any concerns that the level of demand isn't sustainable or is it the opposite way around where you're able to push rents in an environment where the macro economy is a little weaker and maybe others take a little softer stance
Speaker 10: Yeah, thanks for that question. I think that's a market by market determination about how stressed some of these folks are. Our markets, particularly out west in San Francisco and Seattle, we've talked about people getting our average resident getting 30% cumulative increases in compensation since 2019, whereas rents are flat now, slightly higher, but basically flat to 2019. There's a lot of room there. I think people obviously need jobs, but these are highly skilled individuals that generally are our residents. My expectation is that there's plenty of room to push in our markets. We're not seeing any stress from our customer. Yeah, thanks for that question. yeah thanks for that question I think that's a market by market determination about how stressed some of these folks are. i think that's a market by market determination about how stressed some of these folks are Our markets, particularly out west in San Francisco and Seattle, we've talked about people getting our average resident getting 30% cumulative increases in compensation since 2019, whereas rents are flat now, slightly higher, but basically flat to 2019. our markets particularly out west in san francisco and seattle we've talked about people getting our average resident getting 30% cumulative increases in compensation since 2019 whereas rents are flat now slightly higher but basically flat to 2019 There's a lot of room there. there's a lot of room there I think people obviously need jobs, but these are highly skilled individuals that generally are our residents. i think people obviously need jobs but these are highly skilled individuals that generally are our residents My expectation is that there's plenty of room to push in our markets. my expectation is that there's plenty of room to push in our markets We're not seeing any stress from our customer. we're not seeing any stress from our customer If the job machine slows down, I think we'll feel it, like all owners of rental housing will feel it, but I think a lot less than many others, given where our assets are and that our customer honestly is at disproportionate compensation increase relative to the rent level increases. If the job machine slows down, I think we'll feel it, like all owners of rental housing will feel it, but I think a lot less than many others, given where our assets are and that our customer honestly is at disproportionate compensation increase relative to the rent level increases. if the job machine slows down i think we'll feel it like all owners of rental housing will feel it but i think a lot less than many others given where our assets are and that our customer honestly is at disproportionate compensation increase relative to the rent level increases
Speaker 19: Got it. Thanks for the details. Got it. got it Thanks for the details. thanks for the details
Speaker 12: We'll go next to Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo. We'll go next to Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo. we'll go next to jamie feldman with wells fargo
Speaker 11: All right, great. Thanks for taking the question. I guess to go back to your comments on potentially starting new development, can you talk about what markets look interesting? Is it more the expansion markets, your legacy markets? How do you think about the decision to do it through a JV or on balance sheet? What would your targeted yields or returns look like? All right, great. all right great Thanks for taking the question. thanks for taking the question I guess to go back to y our comments on potentially starting new development, can you talk about what markets look interesting? i guess to go back to y our comments on potentially starting new development can you talk about what markets look interesting Is it more the expansion markets, your legacy markets? is it more the expansion markets your legacy markets How do you think about the decision to do it through a JV or on balance sheet? how do you think about the decision to do it through a jv or on balance sheet What would your targeted yields or returns look like? what would your targeted yields or returns look like
Speaker 17: Hey, Jamie, it's Alec. What we're really looking to do is balance out our development pipeline in both places, like suburban Boston and suburban Seattle, where we have developments going on right now with targeted locations within the expansion market. A little of both is the answer that we're pursuing right now. We have some opportunities in the pipeline that we're working on. In terms of yields, you know, like everyone else, we're chasing a 6% yield on current rents, on current costs. If you're honest about rents and you can work a deal hard, but it's hard to get to that 6%. That's why the opportunities are scarce. It's not for a lack of trying on our part. We do think it'll be a good opportunity to deliver in a couple years. Hey, Jamie, it's Alec. hey jamie it's alec What we're really looking to do is balance out our development pipeline in both places, like suburban Boston and suburban Seattle, where we have developments going on right now with targeted locations within the expansion market. what we're really looking to do is balance out our development pipeline in both places like suburban boston and suburban seattle where we have developments going on right now with targeted locations within the expansion market A little of both is the answer that we're pursuing right now. a little of both is the answer that we're pursuing right now We have some opportunities in the pipeline that we're working on. we have some opportunities in the pipeline that we're working on In terms of yields, you know, like everyone else, we're chasing a 6% yield on current rents, on current costs. in terms of yields you know like everyone else we're chasing a 6% yield on current rents on current costs If you're honest about rents and you can work a deal hard, but it's hard to get to that 6%. if you're honest about rents and you can work a deal hard but it's hard to get to that 6% That's why the opportunities are scarce. that's why the opportunities are scarce It's not for a lack of trying on our part. it's not for a lack of trying on our part We do think it'll be a good opportunity to deliver in a couple years. we do think it'll be a good opportunity to deliver in a couple years To get those numbers to really underwrite and pay you for that risk is a challenge right now. To get those numbers to really underwrite and pay you for that risk is a challenge right now. to get those numbers to really underwrite and pay you for that risk is a challenge right now
Speaker 10: To talk a little bit more about development, balance sheet versus JV, we do balance sheet deals. We have a deal that is a phase deal. We knocked down a couple of buildings in the San Francisco Bay Area of an older property and put in some newer products a couple miles from the Apple headquarters. It's just killing it. It's doing very, very well. We're able to do on balance sheet stuff, but we like using joint venture partners. These are large national developers, by and large, we can trust to complete on time and on budget. We're leveraging their overhead instead of adding to our own, and that leaves us more internal flexibility. We can be much more agnostic between doing development or just buying or doing neither. We like the JV format as a way to leverage our teams here. To talk a little bit more about development, balance sheet versus JV, we do balance sheet deals. to talk a little bit more about development balance sheet versus jv we do balance sheet deals We have a deal that is a phase deal. we have a deal that is a phase deal We knocked down a couple of buildings in the San Francisco Bay Area of an older property and put in some newer products a couple miles from the Apple headquarters. we knocked down a couple of buildings in the san francisco bay area of an older property and put in some newer products a couple miles from the apple headquarters It's just killing it. it's just killing it It's doing very, very well. it's doing very very well We're able to do on balance sheet stuff, but we like using joint venture partners. we're able to do on balance sheet stuff but we like using joint venture partners These are large national developers, by and large, we can trust to complete on time and on budget. these are large national developers by and large we can trust to complete on time and on budget We're leveraging their overhead instead of adding to our own, and that leaves us more internal flexibility. we're leveraging their overhead instead of adding to our own and that leaves us more internal flexibility We can be much more agnostic between doing development or just buying or doing neither. we can be much more agnostic between doing development or just buying or doing neither We like the JV format as a way to leverage our teams here. we like the jv format as a way to leverage our teams here
Speaker 11: Okay, it's an interesting point. How do you think about the cost of doing that? I assume you get a lower yield and return on capital. Okay, it's an interesting point. okay it's an interesting point How do you think about the cost of doing that? how do you think about the cost of doing that I assume you get a lower yield and return on capital. i assume you get a lower yield and return on capital
Speaker 17: Jamie, it's Alec. Yeah, we're balancing up not having to have all the overhead that you need to have to do all the things wholly owned with the fact that you might have to pay a promote if a deal does well. Obviously, we hope the deal does well, but when they don't, we don't have to pay that promote. It balances out pretty well for us in terms of both limiting the overhead, but also limiting how many deals we feel like compelled to do because we've already got money into them, because we're often entering the deal when it's already entitled and ready to go. Jamie, it's Alec. jamie it's alec Yeah, we're balancing up not having to have all the overhead that you need to have to do all the things wholly owned with the fact that you might have to pay a promote if a deal does well. yeah we're balancing up not having to have all the overhead that you need to have to do all the things wholly owned with the fact that you might have to pay a promote if a deal does well Obviously, we hope the deal does well, but when they don't, we don't have to pay that promote. obviously we hope the deal does well but when they don't we don't have to pay that promote It balances out pretty well for us in terms of both limiting the overhead, but also limiting how many deals we feel like compelled to do because we've already got money into them, because we're often entering the deal when it's already entitled and ready to go. it balances out pretty well for us in terms of both limiting the overhead but also limiting how many deals we feel like compelled to do because we've already got money into them because we're often entering the deal when it's already entitled and ready to go
Speaker 10: Now, our development overhead, as a matter of record, is less than $4 million a year. It's just not that significant. That's a real benefit to us compared to a lot of other folks. Now, our development overhead, as a matter of record, is less than $4 million a year. now our development overhead as a matter of record is less than $4 million a year It's just not that significant. it's just not that significant That's a real benefit to us compared to a lot of other folks. that's a real benefit to us compared to a lot of other folks
Speaker 11: Yeah, that's a good point. You had mentioned earlier, accelerating rollout of AI across the platform. Can you talk about, you know, as we think about the future, just incremental cost to do that, what you think the impact could be on margins, revenue, upside? Is it something we can be modeling or it's more just internally, you get the benefit? Yeah, that's a good point. yeah that's a good point You had mentioned earlier, accelerating rollout of AI across the platform. you had mentioned earlier accelerating rollout of ai across the platform Can you talk about, you know, a s we think about the future, just incremental cost to do that, what you think the impact could be on margins, revenue, upside? can you talk about you know a s we think about the future just incremental cost to do that what you think the impact could be on margins revenue upside Is it something we can be modeling or it's more just internally, you get the benefit? is it something we can be modeling or it's more just internally you get the benefit
Speaker 16: Yeah. Jamie, this is Michael. I mean, we laid out some of this through the investor day. I think when you think about the innovation initiatives that we have here, right now, as we think about deploying AI within our portfolio, we're very focused on enhancing the customer experience at the same time optimizing the operations or looking for operating efficiencies. In terms of the actual lift for sustained result, I think that comes over time as we continue to deploy these types of applications. The first couple of use cases that we're after are really focused on streamlining and creating a seamless customer experience at the same time driving some of the overhead efficiencies through the portfolio. Yeah. yeah Jamie, this is Michael. jamie this is michael I mean, we laid out some of this through the investor day. i mean we laid out some of this through the investor day I think when you think about the innovation initiatives that we have here, right now, as we think about deploying AI within our portfolio, we're very focused on enhancing the customer experience at the same time optimizing the operations or looking for operating efficiencies. i think when you think about the innovation initiatives that we have here right now as we think about deploying ai within our portfolio we're very focused on enhancing the customer experience at the same time optimizing the operations or looking for operating efficiencies In terms of the actual lift for sustained result, I think that comes over time as we continue to deploy these types of applications. in terms of the actual lift for sustained result i think that comes over time as we continue to deploy these types of applications The first couple of use cases that we're after are really focused on streamlining and creating a seamless customer experience at the same time driving some of the overhead efficiencies through the portfolio. the first couple of use cases that we're after are really focused on streamlining and creating a seamless customer experience at the same time driving some of the overhead efficiencies through the portfolio
Speaker 10: Jamie, it's Mark. If I could just expand on that because Michael's doing such a good job with all types of technology, including AI on the op side. What you're going to see from us is just this expansion of technology and use of technology to make better decisions, to move faster and lower cost in areas away from operations. Most importantly in capital allocation, we've got a lot of initiatives going on using more sophisticated business intelligence tools, using more data to make better capital allocation decisions over time. We have a lot of really cool in-flight projects that we think will help both in the Legal Department and the HR Department and Finance to just be more productive generally and to give our people internally a better experience, but also to be more efficient. Jamie, it's Mark. jamie it's mark If I could just expand on that because Michael's doing such a good job with all types of technology, including AI on the op side. if i could just expand on that because michael's doing such a good job with all types of technology including ai on the op side What you're going to see from us is just this expansion of technology and use of technology to make better decisions, to move faster and lower cost in areas away from operations. what you're going to see from us is just this expansion of technology and use of technology to make better decisions to move faster and lower cost in areas away from operations Most importantly in capital allocation, we've got a lot of initiatives going on using more sophisticated business intelligence tools, using more data to make better capital allocation decisions over time. most importantly in capital allocation we've got a lot of initiatives going on using more sophisticated business intelligence tools using more data to make better capital allocation decisions over time We have a lot of really cool in-flight projects that we think will help both in the Legal Department and the HR Department and Finance to just be more productive generally and to give our people internally a better experience, but also to be more efficient. we have a lot of really cool in-flight projects that we think will help both in the legal department and the hr department and finance to just be more productive generally and to give our people internally a better experience but also to be more efficient I think it's not just AI, it's technology in general and it's not just operations. It's all manner of things here. We all have goals, everyone in the company at the top of the house, to sort of use technology to be more efficient, to make better quality decisions. That includes, of course, Michael's amazing operating machine, but also includes capital allocation and all the back office stuff as well. I think it's not just AI, it's technology in general and it's not just operations. i think it's not just ai it's technology in general and it's not just operations It's all manner of things here. it's all manner of things here We all have goals, everyone in the company at the top of the house, to sort of use technology to be more efficient, to make better quality decisions. we all have goals everyone in the company at the top of the house to sort of use technology to be more efficient to make better quality decisions That includes, of course, Michael's amazing operating machine, but also includes capital allocation and all the back office stuff as well. that includes of course michael's amazing operating machine but also includes capital allocation and all the back office stuff as well
Speaker 11: You think that leads to G&A savings as well? You think that leads to G&A savings as well? you think that leads to g&a savings as well
Speaker 10: I think it's going to retard the rate of growth of overhead over time. I think these folks are very expensive people, and you may see us go up before we go down in some regards. I expect that over time we will have a slower rate of growth of our overhead functions because we'll use technology in places where it can make us more efficient. I think it's going to retard the rate of growth of overhead over time. i think it's going to retard the rate of growth of overhead over time I think these folks are very expensive people, and you may see us go up before we go down in some regards. i think these folks are very expensive people and you may see us go up before we go down in some regards I expect that over time we will have a slower rate of growth of our overhead functions because we'll use technology in places where it can make us more efficient. i expect that over time we will have a slower rate of growth of our overhead functions because we'll use technology in places where it can make us more efficient
Speaker 11: Okay, interesting. Thank you very much for the thoughts. Okay, interesting. okay interesting Thank you very much for the thoughts. thank you very much for the thoughts
Speaker 12: We'll go next to Rich Hightower with Barclays. We'll go next to Rich Hightower with Barclays. we'll go next to rich hightower with barclays
Speaker 13: Hi, good morning, guys. Thanks for squeezing me in here. Congrats again to Alec, Bob, and Brett as well. Going back to the changing composition of the same store pool for next year, which I know we've talked about on prior call, is there a way to sort of help quantify you? If you, let's say if you had included those same assets in the pool this year, what that would have meant for same store and then you conversely, what that comp looks like for next year? Is there a way to think about it that for our modeling purposes? Hi, good morning, guys. hi good morning guys Thanks for squeezing me in here. thanks for squeezing me in here Congrats again to Alec, Bob, and Brett as well. congrats again to alec bob and brett as well Going back to the changing composition of the same store pool for next year, which I know we've talked about o n prior call, is there a way to sort of help quantify you? going back to the changing composition of the same store pool for next year which i know we've talked about o n prior call is there a way to sort of help quantify you If you, let's say if you h ad included those same assets in the pool this year, what that would have meant for same store and then you c onversely, what that comp looks like for next year? if you let's say if you h ad included those same assets in the pool this year what that would have meant for same store and then you c onversely what that comp looks like for next year Is there a way to think about it that for our modeling purposes? is there a way to think about it that for our modeling purposes
Speaker 6: Yeah. Hey, Rich, it's Bob. I think the best way to think about it is they're in the expansion markets, and if you actually look at the sequential same store set, many of them or most of them are included in the sequential same store set. You'll notice if you look on one of the same store pages, we have around 81,000 units that are in sequential. That, of course, would include basically everything that we would have acquired that has not yet got into the portfolio except for the transaction that happened in the quarter or anything in the first quarter. That's probably the best indicator of absolute number of units, given where the expansion markets are today. It is modestly dilutive. Yeah. yeah Hey, Rich, it's Bob. hey rich it's bob I think the best way to think about it is they're in the expansion markets, and if you actually look at the sequential same store set, many of them or most of them are included in the sequential same store set. i think the best way to think about it is they're in the expansion markets and if you actually look at the sequential same store set many of them or most of them are included in the sequential same store set You'll notice if you look on one of the same store pages, we have around 81,000 units that are in sequential. you'll notice if you look on one of the same store pages we have around 81,000 units that are in sequential That, of course, would include basically everything that we would have acquired that has not yet got into the portfolio except for the transaction that happened in the quarter or anything in the first quarter. that of course would include basically everything that we would have acquired that has not yet got into the portfolio except for the transaction that happened in the quarter or anything in the first quarter That's probably the best indicator of absolute number of units, given where the expansion markets are today. that's probably the best indicator of absolute number of units given where the expansion markets are today It is modestly dilutive. it is modestly dilutive In 2025, if you would have otherwise put them into the same store set, that is, of course, consistent with what we underwrote, and they're performing with what we underwrote. We would think that as we roll into 2026, you will see a good framework or good upside potential. Most notably, when you look at the stats in 2026 around the specific performance, what these additions to the portfolio do is really balance some of those portfolios in those markets, like Michael mentioned. Today you have such a small sample set in the same store related to the expansion markets that it's very volatile on some of the leasing spreads. It's oftentimes suboptimal in terms of the portfolio allocation. These recent acquisitions should balance us out better, and you'll see probably a smoother, more consistent, and better performance overall. We think it's good. In 2025, if you would have otherwise put them into the same store set, that is, of course, consistent with what we underwrote, and they're performing with what we underwrote. in 2025 if you would have otherwise put them into the same store set that is of course consistent with what we underwrote and they're performing with what we underwrote We would think that as we roll into 2026, you will see a good framework or good upside potential. we would think that as we roll into 2026 you will see a good framework or good upside potential Most notably, when you look at the stats in 2026 around the specific performance, what these additions to the portfolio do is really balance some of those portfolios in those markets, like Michael mentioned. most notably when you look at the stats in 2026 around the specific performance what these additions to the portfolio do is really balance some of those portfolios in those markets like michael mentioned Today you have such a small sample set in the same store related to the expansion markets that it's very volatile on some of the leasing spreads. today you have such a small sample set in the same store related to the expansion markets that it's very volatile on some of the leasing spreads It's oftentimes suboptimal in terms of the portfolio allocation. it's oftentimes suboptimal in terms of the portfolio allocation These recent acquisitions should balance us out better, and you'll see probably a smoother, more consistent, and better performance overall. these recent acquisitions should balance us out better and you'll see probably a smoother more consistent and better performance overall We think it's good. we think it's good I think as you go on even further into 2027 and thereabouts, it should be even more additive as supply comes down in these markets and you see growth coming out of the expansion markets. I think as you go on even further into 2027 and thereabouts, it should be even more additive as supply comes down in these markets and you see growth coming out of the expansion markets. i think as you go on even further into 2027 and thereabouts it should be even more additive as supply comes down in these markets and you see growth coming out of the expansion markets
Speaker 13: Okay, that is helpful. Just to be clear, I know we've covered this before, but the same store pool overall recomposes on a quarterly basis. Is that how you guys do it? Okay, that is helpful. okay that is helpful Just to be clear, I know we've covered this before, but the same store pool overall recomposes on a quarterly basis. just to be clear i know we've covered this before but the same store pool overall recomposes on a quarterly basis Is that how you guys do it? is that how you guys do it
Speaker 6: Yeah. We have actually two. We have three sets, right? You have a full year in order. Basically, in order to own, in order to be in same store, we have three sets of same stores, but in order to be in same store, you need to have been owned for the full period of the comparable period. For the full year same store set, you'll see we have 75,000 some odd units. That means that we fully own them in 2024 and fully own them in 2025. In the quarterly, you just need to have been owned for the full period and stabilized, I should note, in the full period for the corresponding quarter. We had to own you in Q2, for instance, Q2 compared to Q2 of the prior year. Yeah. yeah We have actually two. we have actually two We have three sets, r ight? we have three sets, r ight You have a full year in order. you have a full year in order Basically, in order to own, in order to be in same store, we have three sets of same stores, but in order to be in same store, you need to have been owned for the full period of the comparable period. basically in order to own in order to be in same store we have three sets of same stores but in order to be in same store you need to have been owned for the full period of the comparable period For the full year same store set, you'll see we have 75,000 some odd units. for the full year same store set you'll see we have 75,000 some odd units That means that we fully own them in 2024 and fully own them in 2025. that means that we fully own them in 2024 and fully own them in 2025 In the quarterly, you just need to have been owned for the full period and stabilized, I should note, in the full period for the corresponding quarter. in the quarterly you just need to have been owned for the full period and stabilized i should note in the full period for the corresponding quarter We had to own you in Q2, for instance, Q2 compared to Q2 of the prior year. we had to own you in q2 for instance q2 compared to q2 of the prior year In the sequential, which is always the largest when you're doing acquisitions, the sequential set is always the largest because we had to own you in Q1 of 2025 and in Q2 of 2025 to be included. We have three sets to keep. In the sequential, which is always the largest when you're doing acquisitions, the sequential set is always the largest because we had to own you in Q1 of 2025 and in Q2 of 2025 to be included. in the sequential which is always the largest when you're doing acquisitions the sequential set is always the largest because we had to own you in q1 of 2025 and in q2 of 2025 to be included We have three sets to keep. we have three sets to keep
Speaker 10: Life interesting and just to give it a little more point on that. Bob is still our CFO, so he can correct me as an old CFO if I get it wrong. We're going to add about 4,000 units to the annual same store set, and those will be, as you guessed, Rich, predominantly, almost entirely in those expansion markets. They will generally, because of their locations, improve our results quarter over quarter. Because those markets are slower growth than our legacy markets, they're going to slow down the company's total growth rate, which is what Bob was implying in his beginning answer. I think you'll see some numbers that are less volatile. Life interesting and just to give it a little more point on that. life interesting and just to give it a little more point on that Bob is still our CFO, so he can correct me as an old CFO if I get it wrong. bob is still our cfo so he can correct me as an old cfo if i get it wrong We're going to add about 4,000 units to the annual same store set, and those will be, as you guessed, Rich, predominantly, almost entirely in those expansion markets. we're going to add about 4,000 units to the annual same store set and those will be as you guessed rich predominantly almost entirely in those expansion markets They will generally, because of their locations, improve our results quarter over quarter. they will generally because of their locations improve our results quarter over quarter Because those markets are slower growth than our legacy markets, they're going to slow down the company's total growth rate, which is what Bob was implying in his beginning answer. because those markets are slower growth than our legacy markets they're going to slow down the company's total growth rate which is what bob was implying in his beginning answer I think you'll see some numbers that are less volatile. i think you'll see some numbers that are less volatile And. Dallas, when you add in all these suburban acquisitions, which just tended to be the things we acquired in our second or third year of being back in those markets as opposed to being the initial properties we acquired, that makes sense? And. and Dallas, when you add in all these suburban acquisitions, which just tended to be the things we acquired in our second or third year of being back in those markets as opposed to being the initial properties we acquired, that makes sense? dallas when you add in all these suburban acquisitions which just tended to be the things we acquired in our second or third year of being back in those markets as opposed to being the initial properties we acquired that makes sense
Speaker 13: It does, yeah. If I'm still confused, I'll follow up offline. I appreciate it. It does, yeah. it does yeah If I'm still confused, I'll follow up offline. if i'm still confused i'll follow up offline I appreciate it. i appreciate it
Speaker 12: You. Julien Blouin with Goldman Sachs. You. you Julien Blouin with Goldman Sachs. julien blouin with goldman sachs
Speaker 5: Hi, thank you. Thank you for the question. Just on Washington D.C. and Boston, those were helpful comments earlier on the sort of early signs of softness you're seeing in those markets. I think what's just been striking is just how solid the blends in those markets were in the second quarter. Should we read into your comments around prioritizing occupancy that you think blends could actually decelerate more than seasonal norms in the back half of the year in those markets? Hi, thank you. hi thank you Thank you for the question. thank you for the question Just on Washington D.C. and Boston, those were helpful comments earlier on the sort of early signs of softness you're seeing in those markets. just on washington d.c and boston those were helpful comments earlier on the sort of early signs of softness you're seeing in those markets I think what's just been striking is just how solid the blends in those markets were in the second quarter. i think what's just been striking is just how solid the blends in those markets were in the second quarter Should we read into your comments around prioritizing occupancy that you think blends could actually decelerate more than seasonal norms in the back half of the year in those markets? should we read into your comments around prioritizing occupancy that you think blends could actually decelerate more than seasonal norms in the back half of the year in those markets
Speaker 16: Hey, Julien, it's Michael. No, I don't think I would read into that yet. I think both Washington D.C. and Boston continue to be the headline risk markets and we need to just be paying attention to it. We saw a little bit of deceleration at the end of the peak leasing season in Washington D.C. Boston's kind of been steady, you know, so I think that does warrant us leaning in towards that occupancy play. You're going into the shoulder period. They're pretty pronounced seasonal markets to begin with. I think just normal deceleration probably allows us to maintain that lean towards occupancy. Hey, Julien, it's Michael. hey julien it's michael No, I don't think I would read into that yet. no i don't think i would read into that yet I think both Washington D.C. and Boston continue to be the headline risk markets and we need to just be paying attention to it. i think both washington d.c and boston continue to be the headline risk markets and we need to just be paying attention to it We saw a little bit of deceleration at the end of the peak leasing season in Washington D.C. we saw a little bit of deceleration at the end of the peak leasing season in washington d.c Boston's kind of been steady, you know, so I think that does warrant us leaning in towards that occupancy play. boston's kind of been steady you know so i think that does warrant us leaning in towards that occupancy play You're going into the shoulder period. you're going into the shoulder period They're pretty pronounced seasonal markets to begin with. they're pretty pronounced seasonal markets to begin with I think just normal deceleration probably allows us to maintain that lean towards occupancy. i think just normal deceleration probably allows us to maintain that lean towards occupancy
Speaker 5: Okay, great. That's all from me. Thanks. Okay, great. okay great That's all from me. that's all from me Thanks. thanks
Speaker 12: We'll go next to David Segall with Green Street. We'll go next to David Segall with Green Street. we'll go next to david segall with green street
Speaker 1: Hi, thank you. Maybe just going back to your comments about the transaction market, it sounds like the expectation of lender pressure leading to more activity has not played out. Do you have any thoughts on why is that? Is it just going to be delaying the activity until next year or until rents recover, or is it just not going to happen at all? Hi, thank you. hi thank you Maybe just going back to your comments about the transaction market, it sounds like the expectation of lender pressure leading to more activity has not played out. maybe just going back to your comments about the transaction market it sounds like the expectation of lender pressure leading to more activity has not played out Do you have any thoughts on why is that? do you have any thoughts on why is that I s it just going to be delaying the activity until next year or until rents recover, or is it just not going to happen at all? i s it just going to be delaying the activity until next year or until rents recover or is it just not going to happen at all
Speaker 17: Hey, David, it's Alec. Yeah, you're right. That was an anticipation going into the year that there would be more lenders just eager to get their money back. What we're hearing from our conversations is that, in fact, given the slowdown in new business, the lenders actually want to keep money engaged in the multifamily sector. They are much more willing to extend than we had anticipated, frankly, than I think they thought they were going to anticipate going into the year. That pressure still continues to build, though, in the longer run because so many new properties are delivering, particularly in these expansion markets. We do think we'll see more opportunity and we're poised to take advantage of that. Hey, David, it's Alec. hey david it's alec Yeah, you're right. yeah you're right That was an anticipation going into the year that there would be more lenders just eager to get their money back. that was an anticipation going into the year that there would be more lenders just eager to get their money back What we're hearing from our conversations is that, in fact, given the slowdown in new business, the lenders actually want to keep money engaged in the multifamily sector. what we're hearing from our conversations is that in fact given the slowdown in new business the lenders actually want to keep money engaged in the multifamily sector They are much more willing to extend than we had anticipated, frankly, than I think they thought they were going to anticipate going into the year. they are much more willing to extend than we had anticipated frankly than i think they thought they were going to anticipate going into the year That pressure still continues to build, though, in the longer run because so many new properties are delivering, particularly in these expansion markets. that pressure still continues to build though in the longer run because so many new properties are delivering particularly in these expansion markets We do think we'll see more opportunity and we're poised to take advantage of that. we do think we'll see more opportunity and we're poised to take advantage of that
Speaker 1: Great, thank you. With regard to your CapEx guidance, it was reduced a little bit. Just curious what's driving that and would there be any associated impact on revenue growth? Great, thank you. great thank you With regard to your CapEx guidance, it was reduced a little bit. with regard to your capex guidance it was reduced a little bit Just curious what's driving that and would there be any associated impact on revenue growth? just curious what's driving that and would there be any associated impact on revenue growth
Speaker 17: Hey, David, it's Alec. It's really just some projects taking a little longer than we thought they would and some of the renovations, fewer units, but things we will get to in the next 12 months or so. One of them is a conversion of some office space in Boston to residential. That just got tied up a little bit with the city, but we expect that to happen as well. Great. Hey, David, it's Alec. hey david it's alec It's really just some projects taking a little longer than we thought they would and some of the renovations, fewer units, but things we will get to in the next 12 months or so. it's really just some projects taking a little longer than we thought they would and some of the renovations fewer units but things we will get to in the next 12 months or so One of them is a conversion of some office space in Boston to residential. one of them is a conversion of some office space in boston to residential That just got tied up a little bit with the city, but we expect that to happen as well. that just got tied up a little bit with the city but we expect that to happen as well Great. great
Speaker 1: Thank you. Thank you. thank you
Speaker 12: At this time, there are no further questions. I'll turn the call back to Mark for any additional or closing remarks. At this time, there are no further questions. at this time there are no further questions I'll turn the call back to Mark for any additional or closing remarks. i'll turn the call back to mark for any additional or closing remarks
Speaker 10: Thanks, Jennifer. Thank you all for your time and interest in Equity Residential today, and we'll see you on the fall conference circuit. Thank you. Thanks, Jennifer. thanks jennifer Thank you all for your time and interest in Equity Residential today, and we'll see you on the fall conference circuit. thank you all for your time and interest in equity residential today and we'll see you on the fall conference circuit Thank you. thank you
Speaker 12: This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's conference. this does conclude today's conference We thank you for your participation. we thank you for your participation