COMERICA INC — Call Transcript 2025

Greetings, and welcome to the Comerica Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Review Conference Call. At this time, all participants will be in listen-only mode. The question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If you'd like to ask a question today, please press Star one from your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star two to remove yourself from the queue. For participants that are using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the Star keys. If anyone today should also require operator assistance, please press Star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. At this time, it is now my pleasure to introduce Kelly Gage, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Kelly. You may now begin. Thanks, Rob. Good morning, and welcome to Comerica's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman, and CEO, Curt Farmer, Chief Financial Officer Jim Herzog, Chief Credit Officer Melinda Chausse, and Chief Banking Officer Peter Sefzik. During this presentation, we will be referring to slides which provide additional details. The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC's website as well as in the Investor Relations section of our website, Comerica.com. The presentation and this conference call contain forward-looking statements, and in that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Please refer to the Safe Harbor Statement in today's earnings presentation on Slide 2. Also, the presentation and this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures, and in that regard, I direct you to the reconciliations of these measures in the earnings materials that are available on our website, Comerica.com. Now I'll turn the call over to Curt, who will begin on Slide 3. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. We felt 2024 was a year of strength as we prioritized further enhancing our foundation to better position ourselves for long-term success and saw promising customer trends. We continue to favor a conservative approach to capital management, producing an 80 basis points increase in our estimated CET1 capital ratio while resuming share repurchases. Even with ongoing volatility in the rate curve, we grow both book and tangible book value. Although loan demand remained muted throughout much of the year, we saw encouraging trends in the fourth quarter with improved sentiment and higher production levels, which supports our expectation for growth in 2025. Credit quality remained a strength as we maintained our discipline underwriting and produced historically low net charge-offs. Through deliberate reduction in wholesale funding and with favorable customer trends, we optimized liquidity, benefiting net interest income. Beyond our financial results, we advanced strategic priorities such as investing in relationship managers in growth businesses and financial advisors in support of our wealth management focus. Investments in capital markets produced results as the team closed their first M&A advisory transaction and built a strong pipeline for expanded revenue in the coming years. We continue to modernize our real estate footprint and technology. In fact, we expect to have almost all of our applications managed in the cloud or on a SaaS platform by year-end 2025. Supporting our communities remained a priority as we provided critical business resources to small businesses and helped nonprofits broaden their reach. In preparing for the future, we continue to make progress towards eventual Category 4 readiness. And lastly, with an ongoing commitment towards driving efficiency, we executed expense recalibration initiatives, creating capacity for strategic and risk management investments. We believe our progress towards these important initiatives will help us achieve our long-term strategic objectives. Moving to a summary of 2024 on Slide 4, we reported earnings of $698 million, or $5.02 per share. Although the 2023 industry disruption weighed on nearly every year-over-year average comparisons, we saw encouraging trends throughout the year across a number of categories. Persistently higher rates muted loan demand across the industry, but late in the year, we saw improved customer sentiment, anticipating a more favorable business and regulatory environment. Although the subsequent risk of higher rates dampened that optimism somewhat, we still hear customers are bullish about increasing business investment throughout 2025. Average deposits were pressured by 2023 events, but also reflected an intentional reduction in brokered time deposits. Other than brokered deposits, we saw growth in customer balances from year-end 2023 to 2024. Both non-interest income and expenses were impacted by notable items, and our proactive credit management approach produced very strong results. Slide 5 summarizes the fourth quarter, where we generated earnings of $170 million, or $1.22 per share. Loans, deposits, and net interest income performed consistent with commentary we provided at our fourth quarter industry conference. Leveraging our strong relationship model, we believe we successfully managed deposit pricing commensurate with rate cuts. A modest securities repositioning pressured non-interest income, and a number of other specific items impacted non-interest expenses for the quarter. In all, we feel the momentum with customer deposits and net interest income, coupled with improving sentiment, positions us for growth in 2025. Now I'll turn the call over to Jim to review our financial results. Thanks, Curt, and good morning, everyone. Turning to loans on Slide 6, average loans declined less than 0.5%, attributed largely to expected paydowns in commercial real estate from a higher pace of refinancing or sale of projects. As a reminder, our commercial real estate line of business strategy is geared towards originating construction loans, and we do not generally expect to be a permanent lender in that space. Declines in corporate banking were partially attributed to senior housing exits, and energy grew by winning new and expanding existing relationships. Throughout the quarter, we saw increases across a number of businesses, but period-end loans were flat as that growth was offset by a $500 million reduction in commercial real estate. Total commitments were relatively flat as declines in commercial real estate and corporate banking were offset by production in middle market general, energy, and environmental services. Average loan yields increased one basis point as the impact of business cessation and higher non-accrual interest offset the impact of a lower rate environment. On Slide 7, we continue to be encouraged by customer deposit activity. Average deposits decreased $550 million, or 0.9%. Excluding the impact of the $1.4 billion decline in brokered CDs, customer deposits grew over $800 million, or over 1% in the quarter, with the largest contribution coming from middle market general. Growth continues to be centered in interest-bearing deposits, and although cyclical pressures persisted, non-interest-bearing deposits, as a percentage of total, remain flat at 38%, continuing to reflect a compelling mix. Period-end deposits increased $700 million, adjusting for the timing-related increase in Direct Express deposits and the decline in brokered CDs. Period-end customer deposits grew $400 million on a net basis. Lower brokered CDs, coupled with a successful pricing strategy, drove a 40 basis points decline in deposit pricing quarter over quarter. Going forward, we intend to continue our relationship pricing approach, monitoring the rate and competitive environment while balancing customers' objectives with their own funding needs and profitability. Our securities portfolio on Slide 8 declined as the shift in the rate curve reduced the valuation, and we saw continued paydowns and maturities. Late in the fourth quarter, we executed a modest repositioning, selling approximately $800 million of our lower-rate treasuries and reinvesting at a market yield. We expect to accrete the $19 million pre-tax loss in the net interest income within 2025. Beyond a modest level of purchases to replace treasury maturities, we do not currently project a more meaningful securities reinvestment cadence until late this year. Turning to Slide 9, net interest income increased $41 million to $575 million. Excluding the benefit of business cessation, net interest income would have grown $16 million quarter over quarter. The benefit of maturing swaps and securities, higher customer deposits, strong deposit betas, and non-accrual interest all contributed to a strong net interest income quarter. Moving to Slide 11, we continue to believe the successful execution of our interest rate strategy allows us to better protect our profitability from rate volatility. Despite the slight benefit this slide shows in a lower-rate environment, we generally consider ourselves to be asset neutral, though we remain cognizant of the impact the rate environment may have on non-interest-bearing deposits. By strategically managing our swap and securities portfolios while considering balance sheet dynamics, we intend to maintain our insulated position over time. We feel credit quality remained a competitive strength as shown on Slide 12. Net charge-offs remain low at 13 basis points and only reflect a slight increase from the prior quarter with lower fourth quarter recoveries. Persistent inflation and elevated rates continue to pressure customer profitability and drove expected normalization in both criticized and non-performing loans, largely in our general middle market businesses. Overall, the modest migration observed was expected and already factored into our reserves, and as a result, our allowance for credit losses remained relatively flat at 1.44% of total loans. We feel our proven conservative credit discipline continues to position us well to outperform our peers through the cycle. On Slide 13, fourth quarter non-interest income decreased $27 million, including the $19 million realized loss from the securities repositioning and a $4 million decline in deferred compensation, which was largely offset with the non-interest expenses. Despite modest pressures observed in the quarter across select categories, we continue to prioritize non-interest income and expect to see customer-related income growth in 2025. Expenses on Slide 14 increased $25 million over the prior quarter, inclusive of seasonally higher costs, which impacted a number of line items, including salaries and benefits. In addition, we saw an increase in legal and litigation-related expenses, and we made the strategic decision to increase funding to increase the size of our charitable foundation. These increases more than offset lower operational losses and the gains of real estate, which, as we continue to optimize our real estate and banking center footprint. Expense discipline remains a key priority as we continue to focus on driving efficiency. As shown on Slide 15, we continue to favor a conservative approach to capital with our estimated CET1 at 11.89%. This remained well above our 10% strategic target, and even if the proposed Basel III removal of the AOCI opt-out was in effect, we would have exceeded regulatory minimums and buffers. Movement in the forward curve caused unrealized losses in AOCI to shift higher in the quarter, but we expect them to improve over time with maturities and paydowns. Even with volatility in the rate curve, we returned capital to shareholders through $100 million in share repurchases in the fourth quarter and intend to repurchase approximately $50 million of common stock in the first quarter. As we consider future capital decisions, we intend to be measured in our approach and calibrate the size and frequency of future repurchases with expected loan trends. We will also continue to closely watch the forward curve, our profitability, the economy, and any regulatory updates as they may also influence our strategy. Our outlook for 2025 is on Slide 16. We project full-year average loans to be flat to up 1% in 2025, with expected growth in most businesses largely offset by anticipated paydowns in commercial real estate. In fact, excluding the impact from commercial real estate, we project 2% average loan growth year over year, and in the first quarter, commercial real estate paydowns are expected to fully offset production in most other businesses, resulting in relatively flat average loans compared to fourth quarter 2024. As we move throughout the year, we project sequential quarterly loan growth, resulting in an estimated 3% point-to-point increase in total loans by year-end 2025 compared to year-end 2024. We intend to continue our deliberate reduction in brokered time deposits, which is expected to drive a 2%-3% decline in full-year average deposits in 2025. Excluding brokered CDs, we expect full-year average customer deposits to grow 1%. Following seasonal declines in the first quarter, we project customer deposit growth throughout the rest of 2025. With the elevated rate environment, we expect most of that growth will continue to be concentrated in interest-bearing balances, but believe our non-interest-bearing deposit mix will remain relatively consistent in the upper 30s. Also, as a point of clarity, we are not assuming deposit attrition in 2025 for Direct Express within this outlook based on our current understanding of the transition strategy. We expect full-year 2025 net interest income to increase 6%-7% compared to 2024, with the benefit of business cessation, maturing and replaced securities and swaps, a more efficient funding mix, and higher loans, more than offsetting lower non-interest-bearing balances. In the first quarter, we expect net interest income to take a slight step down with a 1%-2% decline from the fourth quarter as the impact of day count, lower non-interest-bearing deposits, and lower non-accrual interest income offsets the benefit of business cessation and our swap and securities portfolios. From there, we expect to see growth through the rest of the year, and even without the benefit of business cessation, we expect net interest income to be significantly stronger in 2025 than 2024. With the potential for ongoing inflationary pressures and elevated rates, we expect manageable migration toward more normal credit levels to continue in our portfolio. As a result, we project full-year net charge-offs to be at the lower end of our normal 20-40 basis points range in 2025. We expect 2025 non-interest income to increase 4% over reported 2024 levels, which includes a 2% expected growth in customer income. For the first quarter of 2025, we expect seasonal declines in customer-related non-interest income and then generally expect to see growth in customer fees through the balance of the year. Full-year non-interest expenses are expected to grow 3% with higher salaries and benefits, lower gains on sale of real estate, and an increase in pension expense. First quarter 2025 expenses are projected to increase 2% over the fourth quarter of 2024 with normal seasonality in compensation expenses. Expense discipline remains a priority as we seek to self-fund strategic and risk management investments to support our future while driving efficiency. Moving to capital, we continue to appreciate the importance of a strong capital position and intend to consider a number of variables, including loan growth, the forward curve, and the broader economic environment as we execute our plan for the year. We intend to maintain a CET1 ratio well above our 10% strategic target in 2025. In all, we expect favorable sentiment and trends to drive responsible customer-related growth throughout 2025. Now, I'll turn the call back to Curt. Thank you, Jim. As one of the few banks who have celebrated 175 years in business, we understand the importance of strong capital, credit, and liquidity in delivering long-term success, and as discussed, we feel those foundational strengths really shine through in 2024. On top of that, we saw positive customer deposit trends, successfully managed deposit pricing, and returned capital to shareholders through resumption of share repurchases. As we look forward, we feel our model is compelling. We have a unique geographic strategy that is diversified and focuses on growing markets. Our talent is differentiated and tenured colleagues who have deep expertise that deliver consistency to our customers. We continue to invest in our development program, which creates a consistent pipeline of colleagues with the right mix of sales and credit skills. Our product suite is strong, tailored to meet the needs of our customers, and we are making strategic investments which will enhance our solution set. Importantly, we feel well-positioned to deliver responsible loan growth supported by higher deposits, complemented by increased customer-related fee income. No doubt, there's always some level of economic uncertainty, but we are managing our business for the long term by making important investments that support existing customers and win new relationships. Before we go to Q&A, I'd like to take just a moment and acknowledge the individuals and businesses who have navigated the unprecedented flooding in the Southeast late last year and the recent wildfires in California. Our thoughts are with our Comerica colleagues and customers impacted by these tragic events, and with that, we are happy to take your questions. Thank you. At this time, we'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press Star one on your telephone keypad, or a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star two to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the Star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed. Good morning, Jon. Hey, good morning. Can you touch a little bit on your loan growth outlook? You talked a little bit about the pipelines maybe being a little bit better, but I think you're showing commitments stable as well, but you said better sentiment. Can you talk a little bit about what you've seen over the last few months? Yeah, Jon, it's Peter. So over the last few months, I think the tone has changed. 90 days ago, we were hearing a lot more about interest rate relief needed per se to stimulate loan growth, and I think that that is, I don't want to say totally gone away, but it certainly seems to have subsided with more customer optimism going into the new year. And so I think that that overall customer sentiment is encouraging. We're starting the year off with a better pipeline than we did a year ago. So I think all that together is pretty encouraging, and it's pretty broad-based. I mean, the only business where we really just don't feel like there's a whole lot of activity going on is CRE, as we discussed. So we expect that to be a headwind going into 2025, but across the rest of the book, I think customer sentiment has improved quite a bit over the last 90 days and seems less tied to interest rate outlook than maybe it did when we finished the third quarter. Okay. And just to follow up, Peter, just the CRE payoff outlook, when do you expect that to change? I mean, when do you expect some of those headwinds to eventually fade out? Jon, that's a good question. I probably should add a disclaimer to what I just said. I think interest rates are probably affecting that business more than any, and so I suspect that we will see payoffs through 2025, possibly into 2026, with sort of the current interest rate outlook that the country has at the moment. Could that change? Could we see less payoffs if rates were to stay where they are? Possibly. Could it speed up if rates were to drop? Maybe so. I think rates going up would certainly impact that business, both in just opportunities out there and balances probably staying on longer, so a little bit of moving parts. I think our baseline is just expecting sort of quarterly payoffs through the rest of this year and probably into the first or second quarter of 2026. Yeah. Okay. All right. I'll step back. Thank you guys very much. Thanks, Jon. Thanks, Jon. Our next question is from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions. Good morning, Manan. Hi, good morning. On brokered deposits, I know those are coming down nicely, and you expect to pay down some more as you go through the first half of the year. Can you talk about how much room there is to pay down some of these high-cost sources of funding as we go through the year if loan growth remains weak? Yes. Good morning, Manan. Yeah, we did end the year with just over about $1.1 billion of brokered deposits, and we do see those coming down pretty continuously throughout 2025, probably more so starting in the second, third quarters, but all the way through early fourth quarter. It's very feasible that we have no brokered deposits, no brokered time deposits by the end of 2025. So those are a little bit pricey. We're paying about 5.4% for those, and it is our goal with strong core customer deposit growth to eliminate most or all of those by the end of 2025. Now, that'll, of course, depend on loan growth trends and other factors, but overall, we continue to improve the efficiency of our funding mix and quite optimistic about that. Got it. And in terms of capital, I know you're managing that reported CET1 to about 10%, but is there a number you're managing to for CET1, including AOCI? There is no one number because there are a number of capital ratios that different constituencies value. So we are considering kind of a smorgasbord of capital ratios, but of course, CET1 is likely the most important there. With higher levels of AOCI like we had this quarter, we are being a little bit more cautious on capital, but I think it's fair to say, regardless of where things go this year, we plan on staying well above 11% CET1. And then as AOCI continues to come down later this year and into 2026, that gives us more options from a capital standpoint, but overall, considering a number of ratios, I think it's fair to say we'll be well above 11% for this year. Is it fair to say that if the long end of the curve goes up more and that CET1, including AOCI, comes down, you would just manage your capital levels by flexing buybacks, and you still have enough balance sheet available for customers if loan growth should pick up? Absolutely. We have a lot of options with capital. Certainly, loan growth is not an issue. Loan growth, as Peter was saying, is going to be a little bit of a wild card depending on where commercial real estate goes. So first and foremost, we will pay attention to where loan growth trends go in determining what we do with capital. But again, AOCI is probably the number two factor right behind where loan growth goes. Great. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your questions. Morning, John. Morning. Just looking at the expense side, you're running at a high 60s efficiency ratio currently. As you look at 2025, given your guide, it looks like you may still be in that general range. I mean, what do you view as the appropriate long-term efficiency ratio for Comerica, and what can drive you back down off of that upper 60s level? Is it primarily going to be a revenue catalyst, or is there an expense opportunity there? Good morning, John. Yeah, we have seen some elevated efficiency ratios, and we really saw this take place following the regional bank crisis with some of the shifts in deposit mix. So we are working to return back to what we think is an acceptable efficiency ratio, which we believe ultimately needs to be in the 50s to hit some of the ROE objectives that we have in the future. So we are working towards that. It's always a combination of both revenue and expenses, but we are very committed to making sure that we have very strong revenue. We're not going to short expenses and investment for the sake of any short-term objectives. The important thing over time is to grow revenue, but clearly, expenses need to grow at a lower rate than revenue. We need positive operating leverage on a consistent basis to get there. So a combination of both, but in the long run, I believe it is more of a revenue play with responsible investment and expense decisions and making sure that we have positive operating leverage. Okay. All right. Thanks. And then separately, on the deposit side, you had indicated the Direct Express, $3.5 billion in average deposit balances. You don't expect a material change based upon the extension and the way the agreement is right now. Is there anything that could change that, and if you could see potentially a faster decline in those balances than you anticipate at this point? John, it's Peter. I think the answer to that question is no, nothing could change that that we foresee at the moment. We're still working on what the transition process looks like, but as the year unfolds, we will certainly communicate that as we can to what the outlook appears to be. But at the moment, we don't see anything changing in 2025 and really certainly into 2026 at the moment either. So I think the answer is we don't see any real changes to what we've communicated the last several quarters on this, and to the extent that it does, we will do our best to share that, but no changes at the moment. Okay. Great. Thanks for the caller. Thanks, John. Our next question is from the line of Bernard von Gizycki with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions. Morning, Bernard. Hey, guys. Good morning. Just a question on expansion efforts. So you've talked about expanding in areas like the Southeast and the Mountain West. Are there targets for number of hires you're looking to add this year? Is there just a way to think about how much of the expense base is in incremental expense initiatives? Bernard, it's Peter. So in the Southeast, I would say that we are certainly looking at opportunistic hiring. We did a lot of hiring the last couple of years and feel pretty good at sort of the ramp-up that we've had so far. I think we feel like going into 2025, we're going to see opportunities, and we tend to take advantage of those in the Southeast, but probably not the same ramp-up that we had the last two years, but definitely looking at folks and adding that market, particularly in our Florida market. In the Mountain West, it's a little bit more probably a little more aggressive in the Mountain West to the extent that we can find talent. We're certainly looking at opportunities in the Denver market as well as in Phoenix. And so I think that both of those are markets that we would continue to add folks. And now, I would remind you too, though, we have tremendous opportunity to add folks in markets like DFW, in Houston, in Los Angeles, and San Francisco. So we feel fortunate that we are in such great markets where the economy is doing really well, there's population growth, and we feel like there's opportunities to continue to add folks in each of those markets on a go-forward basis, so. Okay. I appreciate that. And then maybe just on M&A, with an easing in the regulatory environment expected from here, just thoughts on how would you think about potentially doing a whole bank deal or a branch or a portfolio acquisition, just any areas of those that could be of potential interest? Thank you, Bernard. The strategy for us has really not changed. We have historically been a very patient acquirer. We've only done one deal in the last 20+ years and are continuing to focus on organic growth. Peter just talked about the markets that we operate in. We think we've got lots of opportunities to continue to grow in those markets and also to continue to add talent selectively where it makes sense for us to do so. And we feel like we've got the right balance of sort of product mix and focus as an organization, especially with our strong commercial focus as the best bank for what we believe businesses in the marketplace, but also really strong wealth management and retail franchise. So we'll continue to be patient and really focus primarily on organic growth. Certainly, there might be some opportunities that come along in terms of team liftouts, in terms of product capabilities, etc., that we'll look at periodically, but again, primarily focused on organic growth. Okay. Great. Thanks for taking my questions. The next question is from the line of Anthony Elian with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed with your question. Morning, Anthony. Hi, everyone. Does your loan growth outlook for 2025 include any uptick in utilization rates, which looks like have been flat the past couple of quarters? Anthony, it's Peter. No, it really doesn't. I think that you might consider that a factor probably to all the banks' loan outlook. I think utilization has been pretty flat for quite a while now. It's certainly been below historical numbers that people that have been in this a long, long time, but we aren't necessarily factoring that into the outlook that we're providing. And to the extent utilization were to pick up, that would be a good thing. Of course, any one of our businesses is going to have utilization sort of moving up and down depending on what's going on in that particular industry. But on the whole, what I would tell you is we've pretty much kept it flat. Thank you. Then my follow-up: could you provide more color on NPAs maybe for Melinda? I know you called out the impacts from higher rates, but was there anything specific in the fourth quarter that contributed to the increase you saw? Thank you. Yeah, this is Melinda. The NPA increase was about $58 million quarter over quarter, which on the whole, for a portfolio of our size, I would consider that very, very modest. It was centered around four or five different names, so still very granular. We did have one commercial real estate loan move into the NPA category, and that was approximately $30 million. So nothing really unusual. Again, the commonality there is pressure from higher interest rates on overall profitability and ability to service debt. And the other commonality that we've seen, not just in NPAs, but really in the charge-offs this quarter, were companies that have an orientation towards serving consumer discretionary products. There's just still some pressure there from a consumer perspective in terms of what they have available. But on the whole, the credit portfolio, I think, performed quite well, and the migration that we saw was pretty much expected and very much in line with sort of the normalization trends. And just as one other comment, our absolute levels of NPAs at about 60 basis points is about half of what our long-term average is. So yes, we saw an increase, but still relatively low, and consider that pretty manageable from our perspective. Thank you. Welcome. Our next question is from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW. Please proceed with your questions. Good morning, Chris. Hey, good morning. Jim, a question on the modest balance sheet restructuring that you did in the quarter of the bond sale. I mean, the earnback within a year is pretty compelling. I guess the question, why not be more aggressive either now or in the next coming quarters? You've got the capital to absorb it and just do what I think unlock that range and efficiency that you talked about. Good morning, Chris. When we look at the options for capital return, we still really do favor share repurchase over securities repositioning. Securities repositioning is essentially neutral to tangible book value in the long run. It's just time geography. I realize it does move around earnings and can maybe from an optics standpoint spruce things up. But if we have to make choices, we would much rather put it in the share repurchase and other capital return options that we think have a real return to shareholders. Okay. And then I guess my follow-up, just a clarification, Jim, on the guidance. Are all the guides NII fees, expenses relative to GAAP reported numbers? Can you confirm that? Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Very relative to GAAP numbers. Thank you. As all the guides are. Thank you. At this time, there are no additional questions. I'll now turn the call back to Mr. Curt Farmer for closing remarks. Thank you to all of you for joining our call this morning. As always, thank you for your continued interest in Comerica. We hope you have a very good day. Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. We disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.

Speaker 12: Greetings, and welcome to the Comerica Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Review Conference Call. At this time, all participants will be in listen-only mode. The question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If you'd like to ask a question today, please press Star one from your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star two to remove yourself from the queue. For participants that are using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the Star keys. If anyone today should also require operator assistance, please press Star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. At this time, it is now my pleasure to introduce Kelly Gage, Director of Investor Relations. Thank you, Kelly. You may now begin. Greetings, and welcome to the Comerica Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Review Conference Call. greetings and welcome to the comerica fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 financial review conference call At this time, all participants will be in listen-only mode. at this time all participants will be in listen-only mode The question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. the question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation If you'd like to ask a question today, please press Star one from your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. if you'd like to ask a question today please press star one from your telephone keypad and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue You may press Star two to remove yourself from the queue. you may press star two to remove yourself from the queue For participants that are using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the Star keys. for participants that are using speaker equipment it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys If anyone today should also require operator assistance, please press Star zero on your telephone keypad. if anyone today should also require operator assistance please press star zero on your telephone keypad As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. as a reminder this conference is being recorded At this time, it is now my pleasure to introduce Kelly Gage, Director of Investor Relations. at this time it is now my pleasure to introduce kelly gage director of investor relations Thank you, Kelly. thank you kelly You may now begin. you may now begin

Speaker 6: Thanks, Rob. Good morning, and welcome to Comerica's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman, and CEO, Curt Farmer, Chief Financial Officer Jim Herzog, Chief Credit Officer Melinda Chausse, and Chief Banking Officer Peter Sefzik. During this presentation, we will be referring to slides which provide additional details. The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC's website as well as in the Investor Relations section of our website, Comerica.com. The presentation and this conference call contain forward-looking statements, and in that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. Thanks, Rob. thanks rob Good morning, and welcome to Comerica's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. good morning and welcome to comerica's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 earnings conference call Participating on this call will be our President, Chairman, and CEO, Curt Farmer, Chief Financial Officer Jim Herzog, Chief Credit Officer Melinda Chausse, and Chief Banking Officer Peter Sefzik. participating on this call will be our president chairman and ceo curt farmer chief financial officer jim herzog chief credit officer melinda chausse and chief banking officer peter sefzik During this presentation, we will be referring to slides which provide additional details. during this presentation we will be referring to slides which provide additional details The presentation slides and our press release are available on the SEC's website as well as in the Investor Relations section of our website, Comerica.com. the presentation slides and our press release are available on the sec's website as well as in the investor relations section of our website comerica.com The presentation and this conference call contain forward-looking statements, and in that regard, you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. the presentation and this conference call contain forward-looking statements and in that regard you should be mindful of the risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially from expectations Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation and we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements Please refer to the Safe Harbor Statement in today's earnings presentation on Slide 2. Also, the presentation and this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures, and in that regard, I direct you to the reconciliations of these measures in the earnings materials that are available on our website, Comerica.com. Now I'll turn the call over to Curt, who will begin on Slide 3. Please refer to the Safe Harbor Statement in today's earnings presentation on Slide 2. please refer to the safe harbor statement in today's earnings presentation on slide 2 Also, the presentation and this conference call will reference non-GAAP measures, and in that regard, I direct you to the reconciliations of these measures in the earnings materials that are available on our website, Comerica.com. also the presentation and this conference call will reference non-gaap measures and in that regard i direct you to the reconciliations of these measures in the earnings materials that are available on our website comerica.com Now I'll turn the call over to Curt, who will begin on Slide 3. now i'll turn the call over to curt who will begin on slide 3

Speaker 4: Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. We felt 2024 was a year of strength as we prioritized further enhancing our foundation to better position ourselves for long-term success and saw promising customer trends. We continue to favor a conservative approach to capital management, producing an 80 basis points increase in our estimated CET1 capital ratio while resuming share repurchases. Even with ongoing volatility in the rate curve, we grow both book and tangible book value. Although loan demand remained muted throughout much of the year, we saw encouraging trends in the fourth quarter with improved sentiment and higher production levels, which supports our expectation for growth in 2025. Credit quality remained a strength as we maintained our discipline underwriting and produced historically low net charge-offs. Through deliberate reduction in wholesale funding and with favorable customer trends, we optimized liquidity, benefiting net interest income. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. good morning everyone and thank you for joining our call We felt 2024 was a year of strength as we prioritized further enhancing our foundation to better position ourselves for long-term success and saw promising customer trends. we felt 2024 was a year of strength as we prioritized further enhancing our foundation to better position ourselves for long-term success and saw promising customer trends We continue to favor a conservative approach to capital management, producing an 80 basis points increase in our estimated CET1 capital ratio while resuming share repurchases. we continue to favor a conservative approach to capital management producing an 80 basis points increase in our estimated cet1 capital ratio while resuming share repurchases Even with ongoing volatility in the rate curve, we grow both book and tangible book value. even with ongoing volatility in the rate curve we grow both book and tangible book value Although loan demand remained muted throughout much of the year, we saw encouraging trends in the fourth quarter with improved sentiment and higher production levels, which supports our expectation for growth in 2025. although loan demand remained muted throughout much of the year we saw encouraging trends in the fourth quarter with improved sentiment and higher production levels which supports our expectation for growth in 2025 Credit quality remained a strength as we maintained our discipline underwriting and produced historically low net charge-offs. credit quality remained a strength as we maintained our discipline underwriting and produced historically low net charge-offs Through deliberate reduction in wholesale funding and with favorable customer trends, we optimized liquidity, benefiting net interest income. through deliberate reduction in wholesale funding and with favorable customer trends we optimized liquidity benefiting net interest income Beyond our financial results, we advanced strategic priorities such as investing in relationship managers in growth businesses and financial advisors in support of our wealth management focus. Investments in capital markets produced results as the team closed their first M&A advisory transaction and built a strong pipeline for expanded revenue in the coming years. We continue to modernize our real estate footprint and technology. In fact, we expect to have almost all of our applications managed in the cloud or on a SaaS platform by year-end 2025. Supporting our communities remained a priority as we provided critical business resources to small businesses and helped nonprofits broaden their reach. In preparing for the future, we continue to make progress towards eventual Category 4 readiness. And lastly, with an ongoing commitment towards driving efficiency, we executed expense recalibration initiatives, creating capacity for strategic and risk management investments. Beyond our financial results, we advanced strategic priorities such as investing in relationship managers in growth businesses and financial advisors in support of our wealth management focus. beyond our financial results we advanced strategic priorities such as investing in relationship managers in growth businesses and financial advisors in support of our wealth management focus Investments in capital markets produced results as the team closed their first M&A advisory transaction and built a strong pipeline for expanded revenue in the coming years. investments in capital markets produced results as the team closed their first m&a advisory transaction and built a strong pipeline for expanded revenue in the coming years We continue to modernize our real estate footprint and technology. we continue to modernize our real estate footprint and technology In fact, we expect to have almost all of our applications managed in the cloud or on a SaaS platform by year-end 2025. in fact we expect to have almost all of our applications managed in the cloud or on a saas platform by year-end 2025 Supporting our communities remained a priority as we provided critical business resources to small businesses and helped nonprofits broaden their reach. supporting our communities remained a priority as we provided critical business resources to small businesses and helped nonprofits broaden their reach In preparing for the future, we continue to make progress towards eventual Category 4 readiness. in preparing for the future we continue to make progress towards eventual category 4 readiness And lastly, with an ongoing commitment towards driving efficiency, we executed expense recalibration initiatives, creating capacity for strategic and risk management investments. and lastly with an ongoing commitment towards driving efficiency we executed expense recalibration initiatives creating capacity for strategic and risk management investments We believe our progress towards these important initiatives will help us achieve our long-term strategic objectives. Moving to a summary of 2024 on Slide 4, we reported earnings of $698 million, or $5.02 per share. Although the 2023 industry disruption weighed on nearly every year-over-year average comparisons, we saw encouraging trends throughout the year across a number of categories. Persistently higher rates muted loan demand across the industry, but late in the year, we saw improved customer sentiment, anticipating a more favorable business and regulatory environment. Although the subsequent risk of higher rates dampened that optimism somewhat, we still hear customers are bullish about increasing business investment throughout 2025. Average deposits were pressured by 2023 events, but also reflected an intentional reduction in brokered time deposits. Other than brokered deposits, we saw growth in customer balances from year-end 2023 to 2024. We believe our progress towards these important initiatives will help us achieve our long-term strategic objectives. we believe our progress towards these important initiatives will help us achieve our long-term strategic objectives Moving to a summary of 2024 on Slide 4, we reported earnings of $698 million, or $5.02 per share. moving to a summary of 2024 on slide 4 we reported earnings of $698 million or $5.02 per share Although the 2023 industry disruption weighed on nearly every year-over-year average comparisons, we saw encouraging trends throughout the year across a number of categories. although the 2023 industry disruption weighed on nearly every year-over-year average comparisons we saw encouraging trends throughout the year across a number of categories Persistently higher rates muted loan demand across the industry, but late in the year, we saw improved customer sentiment, anticipating a more favorable business and regulatory environment. persistently higher rates muted loan demand across the industry but late in the year we saw improved customer sentiment anticipating a more favorable business and regulatory environment Although the subsequent risk of higher rates dampened that optimism somewhat, we still hear customers are bullish about increasing business investment throughout 2025. although the subsequent risk of higher rates dampened that optimism somewhat we still hear customers are bullish about increasing business investment throughout 2025 Average deposits were pressured by 2023 events, but also reflected an intentional reduction in brokered time deposits. average deposits were pressured by 2023 events but also reflected an intentional reduction in brokered time deposits Other than brokered deposits, we saw growth in customer balances from year-end 2023 to 2024. other than brokered deposits we saw growth in customer balances from year-end 2023 to 2024 Both non-interest income and expenses were impacted by notable items, and our proactive credit management approach produced very strong results. Slide 5 summarizes the fourth quarter, where we generated earnings of $170 million, or $1.22 per share. Loans, deposits, and net interest income performed consistent with commentary we provided at our fourth quarter industry conference. Leveraging our strong relationship model, we believe we successfully managed deposit pricing commensurate with rate cuts. A modest securities repositioning pressured non-interest income, and a number of other specific items impacted non-interest expenses for the quarter. In all, we feel the momentum with customer deposits and net interest income, coupled with improving sentiment, positions us for growth in 2025. Now I'll turn the call over to Jim to review our financial results. Both non-interest income and expenses were impacted by notable items, and our proactive credit management approach produced very strong results. both non-interest income and expenses were impacted by notable items and our proactive credit management approach produced very strong results Slide 5 summarizes the fourth quarter, where we generated earnings of $170 million, or $1.22 per share. slide 5 summarizes the fourth quarter where we generated earnings of $170 million or $1.22 per share Loans, deposits, and net interest income performed consistent with commentary we provided at our fourth quarter industry conference. loans deposits and net interest income performed consistent with commentary we provided at our fourth quarter industry conference Leveraging our strong relationship model, we believe we successfully managed deposit pricing commensurate with rate cuts. leveraging our strong relationship model we believe we successfully managed deposit pricing commensurate with rate cuts A modest securities repositioning pressured non-interest income, and a number of other specific items impacted non-interest expenses for the quarter. a modest securities repositioning pressured non-interest income and a number of other specific items impacted non-interest expenses for the quarter In all, we feel the momentum with customer deposits and net interest income, coupled with improving sentiment, positions us for growth in 2025. in all we feel the momentum with customer deposits and net interest income coupled with improving sentiment positions us for growth in 2025 Now I'll turn the call over to Jim to review our financial results. now i'll turn the call over to jim to review our financial results

Speaker 5: Thanks, Curt, and good morning, everyone. Turning to loans on Slide 6, average loans declined less than 0.5%, attributed largely to expected paydowns in commercial real estate from a higher pace of refinancing or sale of projects. As a reminder, our commercial real estate line of business strategy is geared towards originating construction loans, and we do not generally expect to be a permanent lender in that space. Declines in corporate banking were partially attributed to senior housing exits, and energy grew by winning new and expanding existing relationships. Throughout the quarter, we saw increases across a number of businesses, but period-end loans were flat as that growth was offset by a $500 million reduction in commercial real estate. Total commitments were relatively flat as declines in commercial real estate and corporate banking were offset by production in middle market general, energy, and environmental services. Thanks, Curt, and good morning, everyone. thanks curt and good morning everyone Turning to loans on Slide 6, average loans declined less than 0.5%, attributed largely to expected paydowns in commercial real estate from a higher pace of refinancing or sale of projects. turning to loans on slide 6 average loans declined less than 0.5% attributed largely to expected paydowns in commercial real estate from a higher pace of refinancing or sale of projects As a reminder, our commercial real estate line of business strategy is geared towards originating construction loans, and we do not generally expect to be a permanent lender in that space. as a reminder our commercial real estate line of business strategy is geared towards originating construction loans and we do not generally expect to be a permanent lender in that space Declines in corporate banking were partially attributed to senior housing exits, and energy grew by winning new and expanding existing relationships. declines in corporate banking were partially attributed to senior housing exits and energy grew by winning new and expanding existing relationships Throughout the quarter, we saw increases across a number of businesses, but period-end loans were flat as that growth was offset by a $500 million reduction in commercial real estate. throughout the quarter we saw increases across a number of businesses but period-end loans were flat as that growth was offset by a $500 million reduction in commercial real estate Total commitments were relatively flat as declines in commercial real estate and corporate banking were offset by production in middle market general, energy, and environmental services. total commitments were relatively flat as declines in commercial real estate and corporate banking were offset by production in middle market general energy and environmental services Average loan yields increased one basis point as the impact of business cessation and higher non-accrual interest offset the impact of a lower rate environment. On Slide 7, we continue to be encouraged by customer deposit activity. Average deposits decreased $550 million, or 0.9%. Excluding the impact of the $1.4 billion decline in brokered CDs, customer deposits grew over $800 million, or over 1% in the quarter, with the largest contribution coming from middle market general. Growth continues to be centered in interest-bearing deposits, and although cyclical pressures persisted, non-interest-bearing deposits, as a percentage of total, remain flat at 38%, continuing to reflect a compelling mix. Period-end deposits increased $700 million, adjusting for the timing-related increase in Direct Express deposits and the decline in brokered CDs. Period-end customer deposits grew $400 million on a net basis. Average loan yields increased one basis point as the impact of business cessation and higher non-accrual interest offset the impact of a lower rate environment. average loan yields increased one basis point as the impact of business cessation and higher non-accrual interest offset the impact of a lower rate environment On Slide 7, we continue to be encouraged by customer deposit activity. on slide 7 we continue to be encouraged by customer deposit activity Average deposits decreased $550 million, or 0.9%. average deposits decreased $550 million or 0.9% Excluding the impact of the $1.4 billion decline in brokered CDs, customer deposits grew over $800 million, or over 1% in the quarter, with the largest contribution coming from middle market general. excluding the impact of the $1.4 billion decline in brokered cds customer deposits grew over $800 million or over 1% in the quarter with the largest contribution coming from middle market general Growth continues to be centered in interest-bearing deposits, and although cyclical pressures persisted, non-interest-bearing deposits, as a percentage of total, remain flat at 38%, continuing to reflect a compelling mix. growth continues to be centered in interest-bearing deposits and although cyclical pressures persisted non-interest-bearing deposits as a percentage of total remain flat at 38% continuing to reflect a compelling mix Period-end deposits increased $700 million, adjusting for the timing-related increase in Direct Express deposits and the decline in brokered CDs. period-end deposits increased $700 million adjusting for the timing-related increase in direct express deposits and the decline in brokered cds Period-end customer deposits grew $400 million on a net basis. period-end customer deposits grew $400 million on a net basis Lower brokered CDs, coupled with a successful pricing strategy, drove a 40 basis points decline in deposit pricing quarter over quarter. Going forward, we intend to continue our relationship pricing approach, monitoring the rate and competitive environment while balancing customers' objectives with their own funding needs and profitability. Our securities portfolio on Slide 8 declined as the shift in the rate curve reduced the valuation, and we saw continued paydowns and maturities. Late in the fourth quarter, we executed a modest repositioning, selling approximately $800 million of our lower-rate treasuries and reinvesting at a market yield. We expect to accrete the $19 million pre-tax loss in the net interest income within 2025. Beyond a modest level of purchases to replace treasury maturities, we do not currently project a more meaningful securities reinvestment cadence until late this year. Turning to Slide 9, net interest income increased $41 million to $575 million. Lower brokered CDs, coupled with a successful pricing strategy, drove a 40 basis points decline in deposit pricing quarter over quarter. lower brokered cds coupled with a successful pricing strategy drove a 40 basis points decline in deposit pricing quarter over quarter Going forward, we intend to continue our relationship pricing approach, monitoring the rate and competitive environment while balancing customers' objectives with their own funding needs and profitability. going forward we intend to continue our relationship pricing approach monitoring the rate and competitive environment while balancing customers' objectives with their own funding needs and profitability Our securities portfolio on Slide 8 declined as the shift in the rate curve reduced the valuation, and we saw continued paydowns and maturities. our securities portfolio on slide 8 declined as the shift in the rate curve reduced the valuation and we saw continued paydowns and maturities Late in the fourth quarter, we executed a modest repositioning, selling approximately $800 million of our lower-rate treasuries and reinvesting at a market yield. late in the fourth quarter we executed a modest repositioning selling approximately $800 million of our lower-rate treasuries and reinvesting at a market yield We expect to accrete the $19 million pre-tax loss in the net interest income within 2025. we expect to accrete the $19 million pre-tax loss in the net interest income within 2025 Beyond a modest level of purchases to replace treasury maturities, we do not currently project a more meaningful securities reinvestment cadence until late this year. beyond a modest level of purchases to replace treasury maturities we do not currently project a more meaningful securities reinvestment cadence until late this year Turning to Slide 9, net interest income increased $41 million to $575 million. turning to slide 9 net interest income increased $41 million to $575 million Excluding the benefit of business cessation, net interest income would have grown $16 million quarter over quarter. The benefit of maturing swaps and securities, higher customer deposits, strong deposit betas, and non-accrual interest all contributed to a strong net interest income quarter. Moving to Slide 11, we continue to believe the successful execution of our interest rate strategy allows us to better protect our profitability from rate volatility. Despite the slight benefit this slide shows in a lower-rate environment, we generally consider ourselves to be asset neutral, though we remain cognizant of the impact the rate environment may have on non-interest-bearing deposits. By strategically managing our swap and securities portfolios while considering balance sheet dynamics, we intend to maintain our insulated position over time. We feel credit quality remained a competitive strength as shown on Slide 12. Excluding the benefit of business cessation, net interest income would have grown $16 million quarter over quarter. excluding the benefit of business cessation net interest income would have grown $16 million quarter over quarter The benefit of maturing swaps and securities, higher customer deposits, strong deposit betas, and non-accrual interest all contributed to a strong net interest income quarter. the benefit of maturing swaps and securities higher customer deposits strong deposit betas and non-accrual interest all contributed to a strong net interest income quarter Moving to Slide 11, we continue to believe the successful execution of our interest rate strategy allows us to better protect our profitability from rate volatility. moving to slide 11 we continue to believe the successful execution of our interest rate strategy allows us to better protect our profitability from rate volatility Despite the slight benefit this slide shows in a lower-rate environment, we generally consider ourselves to be asset neutral, though we remain cognizant of the impact the rate environment may have on non-interest-bearing deposits. despite the slight benefit this slide shows in a lower-rate environment we generally consider ourselves to be asset neutral though we remain cognizant of the impact the rate environment may have on non-interest-bearing deposits By strategically managing our swap and securities portfolios while considering balance sheet dynamics, we intend to maintain our insulated position over time. by strategically managing our swap and securities portfolios while considering balance sheet dynamics we intend to maintain our insulated position over time We feel credit quality remained a competitive strength as shown on Slide 12. we feel credit quality remained a competitive strength as shown on slide 12 Net charge-offs remain low at 13 basis points and only reflect a slight increase from the prior quarter with lower fourth quarter recoveries. Persistent inflation and elevated rates continue to pressure customer profitability and drove expected normalization in both criticized and non-performing loans, largely in our general middle market businesses. Overall, the modest migration observed was expected and already factored into our reserves, and as a result, our allowance for credit losses remained relatively flat at 1.44% of total loans. We feel our proven conservative credit discipline continues to position us well to outperform our peers through the cycle. On Slide 13, fourth quarter non-interest income decreased $27 million, including the $19 million realized loss from the securities repositioning and a $4 million decline in deferred compensation, which was largely offset with the non-interest expenses. Net charge-offs remain low at 13 basis points and only reflect a slight increase from the prior quarter with lower fourth quarter recoveries. net charge-offs remain low at 13 basis points and only reflect a slight increase from the prior quarter with lower fourth quarter recoveries Persistent inflation and elevated rates continue to pressure customer profitability and drove expected normalization in both criticized and non-performing loans, largely in our general middle market businesses. persistent inflation and elevated rates continue to pressure customer profitability and drove expected normalization in both criticized and non-performing loans largely in our general middle market businesses Overall, the modest migration observed was expected and already factored into our reserves, and as a result, our allowance for credit losses remained relatively flat at 1.44% of total loans. overall the modest migration observed was expected and already factored into our reserves and as a result our allowance for credit losses remained relatively flat at 1.44% of total loans We feel our proven conservative credit discipline continues to position us well to outperform our peers through the cycle. we feel our proven conservative credit discipline continues to position us well to outperform our peers through the cycle On Slide 13, fourth quarter non-interest income decreased $27 million, including the $19 million realized loss from the securities repositioning and a $4 million decline in deferred compensation, which was largely offset with the non-interest expenses. on slide 13 fourth quarter non-interest income decreased $27 million including the $19 million realized loss from the securities repositioning and a $4 million decline in deferred compensation which was largely offset with the non-interest expenses Despite modest pressures observed in the quarter across select categories, we continue to prioritize non-interest income and expect to see customer-related income growth in 2025. Expenses on Slide 14 increased $25 million over the prior quarter, inclusive of seasonally higher costs, which impacted a number of line items, including salaries and benefits. In addition, we saw an increase in legal and litigation-related expenses, and we made the strategic decision to increase funding to increase the size of our charitable foundation. These increases more than offset lower operational losses and the gains of real estate, which, as we continue to optimize our real estate and banking center footprint. Expense discipline remains a key priority as we continue to focus on driving efficiency. As shown on Slide 15, we continue to favor a conservative approach to capital with our estimated CET1 at 11.89%. Despite modest pressures observed in the quarter across select categories, we continue to prioritize non-interest income and expect to see customer-related income growth in 2025. despite modest pressures observed in the quarter across select categories we continue to prioritize non-interest income and expect to see customer-related income growth in 2025 Expenses on Slide 14 increased $25 million over the prior quarter, inclusive of seasonally higher costs, which impacted a number of line items, including salaries and benefits. expenses on slide 14 increased $25 million over the prior quarter inclusive of seasonally higher costs which impacted a number of line items including salaries and benefits In addition, we saw an increase in legal and litigation-related expenses, and we made the strategic decision to increase funding to increase the size of our charitable foundation. in addition we saw an increase in legal and litigation-related expenses and we made the strategic decision to increase funding to increase the size of our charitable foundation These increases more than offset lower operational losses and the gains of real estate, which, as we continue to optimize our real estate and banking center footprint. these increases more than offset lower operational losses and the gains of real estate which as we continue to optimize our real estate and banking center footprint Expense discipline remains a key priority as we continue to focus on driving efficiency. expense discipline remains a key priority as we continue to focus on driving efficiency As shown on Slide 15, we continue to favor a conservative approach to capital with our estimated CET1 at 11.89%. as shown on slide 15 we continue to favor a conservative approach to capital with our estimated cet1 at 11.89% This remained well above our 10% strategic target, and even if the proposed Basel III removal of the AOCI opt-out was in effect, we would have exceeded regulatory minimums and buffers. Movement in the forward curve caused unrealized losses in AOCI to shift higher in the quarter, but we expect them to improve over time with maturities and paydowns. Even with volatility in the rate curve, we returned capital to shareholders through $100 million in share repurchases in the fourth quarter and intend to repurchase approximately $50 million of common stock in the first quarter. As we consider future capital decisions, we intend to be measured in our approach and calibrate the size and frequency of future repurchases with expected loan trends. We will also continue to closely watch the forward curve, our profitability, the economy, and any regulatory updates as they may also influence our strategy. This remained well above our 10% strategic target, and even if the proposed Basel III removal of the AOCI opt-out was in effect, we would have exceeded regulatory minimums and buffers. this remained well above our 10% strategic target and even if the proposed basel iii removal of the aoci opt-out was in effect we would have exceeded regulatory minimums and buffers Movement in the forward curve caused unrealized losses in AOCI to shift higher in the quarter, but we expect them to improve over time with maturities and paydowns. movement in the forward curve caused unrealized losses in aoci to shift higher in the quarter but we expect them to improve over time with maturities and paydowns Even with volatility in the rate curve, we returned capital to shareholders through $100 million in share repurchases in the fourth quarter and intend to repurchase approximately $50 million of common stock in the first quarter. even with volatility in the rate curve we returned capital to shareholders through $100 million in share repurchases in the fourth quarter and intend to repurchase approximately $50 million of common stock in the first quarter As we consider future capital decisions, we intend to be measured in our approach and calibrate the size and frequency of future repurchases with expected loan trends. as we consider future capital decisions we intend to be measured in our approach and calibrate the size and frequency of future repurchases with expected loan trends We will also continue to closely watch the forward curve, our profitability, the economy, and any regulatory updates as they may also influence our strategy. we will also continue to closely watch the forward curve our profitability the economy and any regulatory updates as they may also influence our strategy Our outlook for 2025 is on Slide 16. We project full-year average loans to be flat to up 1% in 2025, with expected growth in most businesses largely offset by anticipated paydowns in commercial real estate. In fact, excluding the impact from commercial real estate, we project 2% average loan growth year over year, and in the first quarter, commercial real estate paydowns are expected to fully offset production in most other businesses, resulting in relatively flat average loans compared to fourth quarter 2024. As we move throughout the year, we project sequential quarterly loan growth, resulting in an estimated 3% point-to-point increase in total loans by year-end 2025 compared to year-end 2024. We intend to continue our deliberate reduction in brokered time deposits, which is expected to drive a 2%-3% decline in full-year average deposits in 2025. Our outlook for 2025 is on Slide 16. our outlook for 2025 is on slide 16 We project full-year average loans to be flat to up 1% in 2025, with expected growth in most businesses largely offset by anticipated paydowns in commercial real estate. we project full-year average loans to be flat to up 1% in 2025 with expected growth in most businesses largely offset by anticipated paydowns in commercial real estate In fact, excluding the impact from commercial real estate, we project 2% average loan growth year over year, and in the first quarter, commercial real estate paydowns are expected to fully offset production in most other businesses, resulting in relatively flat average loans compared to fourth quarter 2024. in fact excluding the impact from commercial real estate we project 2% average loan growth year over year and in the first quarter commercial real estate paydowns are expected to fully offset production in most other businesses resulting in relatively flat average loans compared to fourth quarter 2024 As we move throughout the year, we project sequential quarterly loan growth, resulting in an estimated 3% point-to-point increase in total loans by year-end 2025 compared to year-end 2024. as we move throughout the year we project sequential quarterly loan growth resulting in an estimated 3% point-to-point increase in total loans by year-end 2025 compared to year-end 2024 We intend to continue our deliberate reduction in brokered time deposits, which is expected to drive a 2% - 3% decline in full-year average deposits in 2025. we intend to continue our deliberate reduction in brokered time deposits which is expected to drive a 2% - 3% decline in full-year average deposits in 2025 Excluding brokered CDs, we expect full-year average customer deposits to grow 1%. Following seasonal declines in the first quarter, we project customer deposit growth throughout the rest of 2025. With the elevated rate environment, we expect most of that growth will continue to be concentrated in interest-bearing balances, but believe our non-interest-bearing deposit mix will remain relatively consistent in the upper 30s. Also, as a point of clarity, we are not assuming deposit attrition in 2025 for Direct Express within this outlook based on our current understanding of the transition strategy. We expect full-year 2025 net interest income to increase 6%-7% compared to 2024, with the benefit of business cessation, maturing and replaced securities and swaps, a more efficient funding mix, and higher loans, more than offsetting lower non-interest-bearing balances. Excluding brokered CDs, we expect full-year average customer deposits to grow 1%. excluding brokered cds we expect full-year average customer deposits to grow 1% Following seasonal declines in the first quarter, we project customer deposit growth throughout the rest of 2025. following seasonal declines in the first quarter we project customer deposit growth throughout the rest of 2025 With the elevated rate environment, we expect most of that growth will continue to be concentrated in interest-bearing balances, but believe our non-interest-bearing deposit mix will remain relatively consistent in the upper 30s. with the elevated rate environment we expect most of that growth will continue to be concentrated in interest-bearing balances but believe our non-interest-bearing deposit mix will remain relatively consistent in the upper 30s Also, as a point of clarity, we are not assuming deposit attrition in 2025 for Direct Express within this outlook based on our current understanding of the transition strategy. also as a point of clarity we are not assuming deposit attrition in 2025 for direct express within this outlook based on our current understanding of the transition strategy We expect full-year 2025 net interest income to increase 6%-7% compared to 2024, with the benefit of business cessation, maturing and replaced securities and swaps, a more efficient funding mix, and higher loans, more than offsetting lower non-interest-bearing balances. we expect full-year 2025 net interest income to increase 6%-7% compared to 2024 with the benefit of business cessation maturing and replaced securities and swaps a more efficient funding mix and higher loans more than offsetting lower non-interest-bearing balances In the first quarter, we expect net interest income to take a slight step down with a 1%-2% decline from the fourth quarter as the impact of day count, lower non-interest-bearing deposits, and lower non-accrual interest income offsets the benefit of business cessation and our swap and securities portfolios. From there, we expect to see growth through the rest of the year, and even without the benefit of business cessation, we expect net interest income to be significantly stronger in 2025 than 2024. With the potential for ongoing inflationary pressures and elevated rates, we expect manageable migration toward more normal credit levels to continue in our portfolio. As a result, we project full-year net charge-offs to be at the lower end of our normal 20-40 basis points range in 2025. In the first quarter, we expect net interest income to take a slight step down with a 1%-2% decline from the fourth quarter as the impact of day count, lower non-interest-bearing deposits, and lower non-accrual interest income offsets the benefit of business cessation and our swap and securities portfolios. in the first quarter we expect net interest income to take a slight step down with a 1%-2% decline from the fourth quarter as the impact of day count lower non-interest-bearing deposits and lower non-accrual interest income offsets the benefit of business cessation and our swap and securities portfolios From there, we expect to see growth through the rest of the year, and even without the benefit of business cessation, we expect net interest income to be significantly stronger in 2025 than 2024. from there we expect to see growth through the rest of the year and even without the benefit of business cessation we expect net interest income to be significantly stronger in 2025 than 2024 With the potential for ongoing inflationary pressures and elevated rates, we expect manageable migration toward more normal credit levels to continue in our portfolio. with the potential for ongoing inflationary pressures and elevated rates we expect manageable migration toward more normal credit levels to continue in our portfolio As a result, we project full-year net charge-offs to be at the lower end of our normal 20-40 basis points range in 2025. as a result we project full-year net charge-offs to be at the lower end of our normal 20-40 basis points range in 2025 We expect 2025 non-interest income to increase 4% over reported 2024 levels, which includes a 2% expected growth in customer income. For the first quarter of 2025, we expect seasonal declines in customer-related non-interest income and then generally expect to see growth in customer fees through the balance of the year. Full-year non-interest expenses are expected to grow 3% with higher salaries and benefits, lower gains on sale of real estate, and an increase in pension expense. First quarter 2025 expenses are projected to increase 2% over the fourth quarter of 2024 with normal seasonality in compensation expenses. Expense discipline remains a priority as we seek to self-fund strategic and risk management investments to support our future while driving efficiency. We expect 2025 non-interest income to increase 4% over reported 2024 levels, which includes a 2% expected growth in customer income. we expect 2025 non-interest income to increase 4% over reported 2024 levels which includes a 2% expected growth in customer income For the first quarter of 2025, we expect seasonal declines in customer-related non-interest income and then generally expect to see growth in customer fees through the balance of the year. for the first quarter of 2025 we expect seasonal declines in customer-related non-interest income and then generally expect to see growth in customer fees through the balance of the year Full-year non-interest expenses are expected to grow 3% with higher salaries and benefits, lower gains on sale of real estate, and an increase in pension expense. full-year non-interest expenses are expected to grow 3% with higher salaries and benefits lower gains on sale of real estate and an increase in pension expense First quarter 2025 expenses are projected to increase 2% over the fourth quarter of 2024 with normal seasonality in compensation expenses. first quarter 2025 expenses are projected to increase 2% over the fourth quarter of 2024 with normal seasonality in compensation expenses Expense discipline remains a priority as we seek to self-fund strategic and risk management investments to support our future while driving efficiency. expense discipline remains a priority as we seek to self-fund strategic and risk management investments to support our future while driving efficiency Moving to capital, we continue to appreciate the importance of a strong capital position and intend to consider a number of variables, including loan growth, the forward curve, and the broader economic environment as we execute our plan for the year. We intend to maintain a CET1 ratio well above our 10% strategic target in 2025. In all, we expect favorable sentiment and trends to drive responsible customer-related growth throughout 2025. Now, I'll turn the call back to Curt. Moving to capital, we continue to appreciate the importance of a strong capital position and intend to consider a number of variables, including loan growth, the forward curve, and the broader economic environment as we execute our plan for the year. moving to capital we continue to appreciate the importance of a strong capital position and intend to consider a number of variables including loan growth the forward curve and the broader economic environment as we execute our plan for the year We intend to maintain a CET1 ratio well above our 10% strategic target in 2025. we intend to maintain a cet1 ratio well above our 10% strategic target in 2025 In all, we expect favorable sentiment and trends to drive responsible customer-related growth throughout 2025. in all we expect favorable sentiment and trends to drive responsible customer-related growth throughout 2025 Now, I'll turn the call back to Curt. now i'll turn the call back to curt

Speaker 4: Thank you, Jim. As one of the few banks who have celebrated 175 years in business, we understand the importance of strong capital, credit, and liquidity in delivering long-term success, and as discussed, we feel those foundational strengths really shine through in 2024. On top of that, we saw positive customer deposit trends, successfully managed deposit pricing, and returned capital to shareholders through resumption of share repurchases. Thank you, Jim. thank you jim As one of the few banks who have celebrated 175 years in business, we understand the importance of strong capital, credit, and liquidity in delivering long-term success, and as discussed, we feel those foundational strengths really shine through in 2024. as one of the few banks who have celebrated 175 years in business we understand the importance of strong capital credit and liquidity in delivering long-term success and as discussed we feel those foundational strengths really shine through in 2024 On top of that, we saw positive customer deposit trends, successfully managed deposit pricing, and returned capital to shareholders through resumption of share repurchases. on top of that we saw positive customer deposit trends successfully managed deposit pricing and returned capital to shareholders through resumption of share repurchases As we look forward, we feel our model is compelling. We have a unique geographic strategy that is diversified and focuses on growing markets. Our talent is differentiated and tenured colleagues who have deep expertise that deliver consistency to our customers. We continue to invest in our development program, which creates a consistent pipeline of colleagues with the right mix of sales and credit skills. Our product suite is strong, tailored to meet the needs of our customers, and we are making strategic investments which will enhance our solution set. Importantly, we feel well-positioned to deliver responsible loan growth supported by higher deposits, complemented by increased customer-related fee income. No doubt, there's always some level of economic uncertainty, but we are managing our business for the long term by making important investments that support existing customers and win new relationships. As we look forward, we feel our model is compelling. as we look forward we feel our model is compelling We have a unique geographic strategy that is diversified and focuses on growing markets. we have a unique geographic strategy that is diversified and focuses on growing markets Our talent is differentiated and tenured colleagues who have deep expertise that deliver consistency to our customers. our talent is differentiated and tenured colleagues who have deep expertise that deliver consistency to our customers We continue to invest in our development program, which creates a consistent pipeline of colleagues with the right mix of sales and credit skills. we continue to invest in our development program which creates a consistent pipeline of colleagues with the right mix of sales and credit skills Our product suite is strong, tailored to meet the needs of our customers, and we are making strategic investments which will enhance our solution set. our product suite is strong tailored to meet the needs of our customers and we are making strategic investments which will enhance our solution set Importantly, we feel well-positioned to deliver responsible loan growth supported by higher deposits, complemented by increased customer-related fee income. importantly we feel well-positioned to deliver responsible loan growth supported by higher deposits complemented by increased customer-related fee income No doubt, there's always some level of economic uncertainty, but we are managing our business for the long term by making important investments that support existing customers and win new relationships. no doubt there's always some level of economic uncertainty but we are managing our business for the long term by making important investments that support existing customers and win new relationships Before we go to Q&A, I'd like to take just a moment and acknowledge the individuals and businesses who have navigated the unprecedented flooding in the Southeast late last year and the recent wildfires in California. Our thoughts are with our Comerica colleagues and customers impacted by these tragic events, and with that, we are happy to take your questions. Before we go to Q&A, I'd like to take just a moment and acknowledge the individuals and businesses who have navigated the unprecedented flooding in the Southeast late last year and the recent wildfires in California. before we go to q&a i'd like to take just a moment and acknowledge the individuals and businesses who have navigated the unprecedented flooding in the southeast late last year and the recent wildfires in california Our thoughts are with our Comerica colleagues and customers impacted by these tragic events, and with that, we are happy to take your questions. our thoughts are with our comerica colleagues and customers impacted by these tragic events and with that we are happy to take your questions

Speaker 12: Thank you. At this time, we'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press Star one on your telephone keypad, or a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star two to remove yourself from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the Star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Thank you. thank you At this time, we'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. at this time we'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session If you'd like to ask a question, please press Star one on your telephone keypad, or a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. if you'd like to ask a question please press star one on your telephone keypad or a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue You may press Star two to remove yourself from the queue. you may press star two to remove yourself from the queue For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the Star keys. for participants using speaker equipment it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the star keys One moment, please, while we poll for questions. one moment please while we poll for questions Thank you. thank you Our first question is from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed. Our first question is from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets. our first question is from the line of jon arfstrom with rbc capital markets Please proceed. please proceed

Speaker 4: Good morning, Jon. Good morning, Jon. good morning jon

Speaker 9: Hey, good morning. Can you touch a little bit on your loan growth outlook? You talked a little bit about the pipelines maybe being a little bit better, but I think you're showing commitments stable as well, but you said better sentiment. Can you talk a little bit about what you've seen over the last few months? Hey, good morning. hey good morning Can you touch a little bit on your loan growth outlook? can you touch a little bit on your loan growth outlook You talked a little bit about the pipelines maybe being a little bit better, but I think you're showing commitments stable as well, but you said better sentiment. you talked a little bit about the pipelines maybe being a little bit better but i think you're showing commitments stable as well but you said better sentiment Can you talk a little bit about what you've seen over the last few months? can you talk a little bit about what you've seen over the last few months

Speaker 8: Yeah, Jon, it's Peter. So over the last few months, I think the tone has changed. 90 days ago, we were hearing a lot more about interest rate relief needed per se to stimulate loan growth, and I think that that is, I don't want to say totally gone away, but it certainly seems to have subsided with more customer optimism going into the new year. Yeah, Jon, it's Peter. yeah jon it's peter So over the last few months, I think the tone has changed. 90 days ago, we were hearing a lot more about interest rate relief needed per se to stimulate loan growth, and I think that that is, I don't want to say totally gone away, but it certainly seems to have subsided with more customer optimism going into the new year. so over the last few months i think the tone has changed 90 days ago we were hearing a lot more about interest rate relief needed per se to stimulate loan growth and i think that that is i don't want to say totally gone away but it certainly seems to have subsided with more customer optimism going into the new year And so I think that that overall customer sentiment is encouraging. We're starting the year off with a better pipeline than we did a year ago. So I think all that together is pretty encouraging, and it's pretty broad-based. I mean, the only business where we really just don't feel like there's a whole lot of activity going on is CRE, as we discussed. So we expect that to be a headwind going into 2025, but across the rest of the book, I think customer sentiment has improved quite a bit over the last 90 days and seems less tied to interest rate outlook than maybe it did when we finished the third quarter. And so I think that that overall customer sentiment is encouraging. and so i think that that overall customer sentiment is encouraging We're starting the year off with a better pipeline than we did a year ago. we're starting the year off with a better pipeline than we did a year ago So I think all that together is pretty encouraging, and it's pretty broad-based. so i think all that together is pretty encouraging and it's pretty broad-based I mean, the only business where we really just don't feel like there's a whole lot of activity going on is CRE, as we discussed. i mean the only business where we really just don't feel like there's a whole lot of activity going on is cre as we discussed So we expect that to be a headwind going into 2025, but across the rest of the book, I think customer sentiment has improved quite a bit over the last 90 days and seems less tied to interest rate outlook than maybe it did when we finished the third quarter. so we expect that to be a headwind going into 2025 but across the rest of the book i think customer sentiment has improved quite a bit over the last 90 days and seems less tied to interest rate outlook than maybe it did when we finished the third quarter

Speaker 9: Okay. And just to follow up, Peter, just the CRE payoff outlook, when do you expect that to change? I mean, when do you expect some of those headwinds to eventually fade out? Okay. okay And just to follow up, Peter, just the CRE payoff outlook, when do you expect that to change? and just to follow up peter just the cre payoff outlook when do you expect that to change I mean, when do you expect some of those headwinds to eventually fade out? i mean when do you expect some of those headwinds to eventually fade out

Speaker 8: Jon, that's a good question. I probably should add a disclaimer to what I just said. I think interest rates are probably affecting that business more than any, and so I suspect that we will see payoffs through 2025, possibly into 2026, with sort of the current interest rate outlook that the country has at the moment. Could that change? Could we see less payoffs if rates were to stay where they are? Possibly. Could it speed up if rates were to drop? Maybe so. I think rates going up would certainly impact that business, both in just opportunities out there and balances probably staying on longer, so a little bit of moving parts. I think our baseline is just expecting sort of quarterly payoffs through the rest of this year and probably into the first or second quarter of 2026. Jon, that's a good question. jon that's a good question I probably should add a disclaimer to what I just said. i probably should add a disclaimer to what i just said I think interest rates are probably affecting that business more than any, and so I suspect that we will see payoffs through 2025, possibly into 2026, with sort of the current interest rate outlook that the country has at the moment. i think interest rates are probably affecting that business more than any and so i suspect that we will see payoffs through 2025 possibly into 2026 with sort of the current interest rate outlook that the country has at the moment Could that change? could that change Could we see less payoffs if rates were to stay where they are? could we see less payoffs if rates were to stay where they are Possibly. possibly Could it speed up if rates were to drop? could it speed up if rates were to drop Maybe so. maybe so I think rates going up would certainly impact that business, both in just opportunities out there and balances probably staying on longer, so a little bit of moving parts. i think rates going up would certainly impact that business both in just opportunities out there and balances probably staying on longer so a little bit of moving parts I think our baseline is just expecting sort of quarterly payoffs through the rest of this year and probably into the first or second quarter of 2026. i think our baseline is just expecting sort of quarterly payoffs through the rest of this year and probably into the first or second quarter of 2026

Speaker 9: Yeah. Okay. All right. I'll step back. Thank you guys very much. Yeah. yeah Okay. okay All right. all right I'll step back. i'll step back Thank you guys very much. thank you guys very much

Speaker 5: Thanks, Jon. Thanks, Jon. Thanks, Jon. thanks jon Thanks, Jon. thanks jon

Speaker 12: Our next question is from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your questions. Our next question is from the line of Manan Gosalia with Morgan Stanley. our next question is from the line of manan gosalia with morgan stanley Please proceed with your questions. please proceed with your questions

Speaker 4: Good morning, Manan. Good morning, Manan. good morning manan

Speaker 7: Hi, good morning. On brokered deposits, I know those are coming down nicely, and you expect to pay down some more as you go through the first half of the year. Can you talk about how much room there is to pay down some of these high-cost sources of funding as we go through the year if loan growth remains weak? Hi, good morning. hi good morning On brokered deposits, I know those are coming down nicely, and you expect to pay down some more as you go through the first half of the year. on brokered deposits i know those are coming down nicely and you expect to pay down some more as you go through the first half of the year Can you talk about how much room there is to pay down some of these high-cost sources of funding as we go through the year if loan growth remains weak? can you talk about how much room there is to pay down some of these high-cost sources of funding as we go through the year if loan growth remains weak

Speaker 5: Yes. Good morning, Manan. Yeah, we did end the year with just over about $1.1 billion of brokered deposits, and we do see those coming down pretty continuously throughout 2025, probably more so starting in the second, third quarters, but all the way through early fourth quarter. Yes. yes Good morning, Manan. good morning manan Yeah, we did end the year with just over about $1.1 billion of brokered deposits, and we do see those coming down pretty continuously throughout 2025, probably more so starting in the second, third quarters, but all the way through early fourth quarter. yeah we did end the year with just over about $1.1 billion of brokered deposits and we do see those coming down pretty continuously throughout 2025 probably more so starting in the second third quarters but all the way through early fourth quarter It's very feasible that we have no brokered deposits, no brokered time deposits by the end of 2025. So those are a little bit pricey. We're paying about 5.4% for those, and it is our goal with strong core customer deposit growth to eliminate most or all of those by the end of 2025. Now, that'll, of course, depend on loan growth trends and other factors, but overall, we continue to improve the efficiency of our funding mix and quite optimistic about that. It's very feasible that we have no brokered deposits, no brokered time deposits by the end of 2025. it's very feasible that we have no brokered deposits no brokered time deposits by the end of 2025 So those are a little bit pricey. so those are a little bit pricey We're paying about 5.4% for those, and it is our goal with strong core customer deposit growth to eliminate most or all of those by the end of 2025. we're paying about 5.4% for those and it is our goal with strong core customer deposit growth to eliminate most or all of those by the end of 2025 Now, that'll, of course, depend on loan growth trends and other factors, but overall, we continue to improve the efficiency of our funding mix and quite optimistic about that. now that'll of course depend on loan growth trends and other factors but overall we continue to improve the efficiency of our funding mix and quite optimistic about that

Speaker 7: Got it. And in terms of capital, I know you're managing that reported CET1 to about 10%, but is there a number you're managing to for CET1, including AOCI? Got it. got it And in terms of capital, I know you're managing that reported CET1 to about 10%, but is there a number you're managing to for CET1, including AOCI? and in terms of capital i know you're managing that reported cet1 to about 10% but is there a number you're managing to for cet1 including aoci

Speaker 5: There is no one number because there are a number of capital ratios that different constituencies value. So we are considering kind of a smorgasbord of capital ratios, but of course, CET1 is likely the most important there. There is no one number because there are a number of capital ratios that different constituencies value. there is no one number because there are a number of capital ratios that different constituencies value So we are considering kind of a smorgasbord of capital ratios, but of course, CET1 is likely the most important there. so we are considering kind of a smorgasbord of capital ratios but of course cet1 is likely the most important there With higher levels of AOCI like we had this quarter, we are being a little bit more cautious on capital, but I think it's fair to say, regardless of where things go this year, we plan on staying well above 11% CET1. And then as AOCI continues to come down later this year and into 2026, that gives us more options from a capital standpoint, but overall, considering a number of ratios, I think it's fair to say we'll be well above 11% for this year. With higher levels of AOCI like we had this quarter, we are being a little bit more cautious on capital, but I think it's fair to say, regardless of where things go this year, we plan on staying well above 11% CET1. with higher levels of aoci like we had this quarter we are being a little bit more cautious on capital but i think it's fair to say regardless of where things go this year we plan on staying well above 11% cet1 And then as AOCI continues to come down later this year and into 2026, that gives us more options from a capital standpoint, but overall, considering a number of ratios, I think it's fair to say we'll be well above 11% for this year. and then as aoci continues to come down later this year and into 2026 that gives us more options from a capital standpoint but overall considering a number of ratios i think it's fair to say we'll be well above 11% for this year

Speaker 7: Is it fair to say that if the long end of the curve goes up more and that CET1, including AOCI, comes down, you would just manage your capital levels by flexing buybacks, and you still have enough balance sheet available for customers if loan growth should pick up? Is it fair to say that if the long end of the curve goes up more and that CET1, including AOCI, comes down, you would just manage your capital levels by flexing buybacks, and you still have enough balance sheet available for customers if loan growth should pick up? is it fair to say that if the long end of the curve goes up more and that cet1 including aoci comes down you would just manage your capital levels by flexing buybacks and you still have enough balance sheet available for customers if loan growth should pick up

Speaker 5: Absolutely. We have a lot of options with capital. Absolutely. absolutely We have a lot of options with capital. we have a lot of options with capital Certainly, loan growth is not an issue. Loan growth, as Peter was saying, is going to be a little bit of a wild card depending on where commercial real estate goes. So first and foremost, we will pay attention to where loan growth trends go in determining what we do with capital. But again, AOCI is probably the number two factor right behind where loan growth goes. Certainly, loan growth is not an issue. certainly loan growth is not an issue Loan growth, as Peter was saying, is going to be a little bit of a wild card depending on where commercial real estate goes. loan growth as peter was saying is going to be a little bit of a wild card depending on where commercial real estate goes So first and foremost, we will pay attention to where loan growth trends go in determining what we do with capital. so first and foremost we will pay attention to where loan growth trends go in determining what we do with capital But again, AOCI is probably the number two factor right behind where loan growth goes. but again aoci is probably the number two factor right behind where loan growth goes

Speaker 7: Great. Thank you. Great. great Thank you. thank you

Speaker 12: Our next question is from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your questions. Our next question is from the line of John Pancari with Evercore ISI. our next question is from the line of john pancari with evercore isi Please proceed with your questions. please proceed with your questions

Speaker 4: Morning, John. Morning, John. morning john

Speaker 1: Morning. Just looking at the expense side, you're running at a high 60s efficiency ratio currently. As you look at 2025, given your guide, it looks like you may still be in that general range. Morning. morning Just looking at the expense side, you're running at a high 60s efficiency ratio currently. just looking at the expense side you're running at a high 60s efficiency ratio currently As you look at 2025, given your guide, it looks like you may still be in that general range. as you look at 2025 given your guide it looks like you may still be in that general range I mean, what do you view as the appropriate long-term efficiency ratio for Comerica, and what can drive you back down off of that upper 60s level? Is it primarily going to be a revenue catalyst, or is there an expense opportunity there? I mean, what do you view as the appropriate long-term efficiency ratio for Comerica, and what can drive you back down off of that upper 60s level? i mean what do you view as the appropriate long-term efficiency ratio for comerica and what can drive you back down off of that upper 60s level Is it primarily going to be a revenue catalyst, or is there an expense opportunity there? is it primarily going to be a revenue catalyst or is there an expense opportunity there

Speaker 4: Good morning, John. Yeah, we have seen some elevated efficiency ratios, and we really saw this take place following the regional bank crisis with some of the shifts in deposit mix. So we are working to return back to what we think is an acceptable efficiency ratio, which we believe ultimately needs to be in the 50s to hit some of the ROE objectives that we have in the future. So we are working towards that. It's always a combination of both revenue and expenses, but we are very committed to making sure that we have very strong revenue. Good morning, John. good morning john Yeah, we have seen some elevated efficiency ratios, and we really saw this take place following the regional bank crisis with some of the shifts in deposit mix. yeah we have seen some elevated efficiency ratios and we really saw this take place following the regional bank crisis with some of the shifts in deposit mix So we are working to return back to what we think is an acceptable efficiency ratio, which we believe ultimately needs to be in the 50s to hit some of the ROE objectives that we have in the future. so we are working to return back to what we think is an acceptable efficiency ratio which we believe ultimately needs to be in the 50s to hit some of the roe objectives that we have in the future So we are working towards that. so we are working towards that It's always a combination of both revenue and expenses, but we are very committed to making sure that we have very strong revenue. it's always a combination of both revenue and expenses but we are very committed to making sure that we have very strong revenue We're not going to short expenses and investment for the sake of any short-term objectives. The important thing over time is to grow revenue, but clearly, expenses need to grow at a lower rate than revenue. We need positive operating leverage on a consistent basis to get there. So a combination of both, but in the long run, I believe it is more of a revenue play with responsible investment and expense decisions and making sure that we have positive operating leverage. We're not going to short expenses and investment for the sake of any short-term objectives. we're not going to short expenses and investment for the sake of any short-term objectives The important thing over time is to grow revenue, but clearly, expenses need to grow at a lower rate than revenue. the important thing over time is to grow revenue but clearly expenses need to grow at a lower rate than revenue We need positive operating leverage on a consistent basis to get there. we need positive operating leverage on a consistent basis to get there So a combination of both, but in the long run, I believe it is more of a revenue play with responsible investment and expense decisions and making sure that we have positive operating leverage. so a combination of both but in the long run i believe it is more of a revenue play with responsible investment and expense decisions and making sure that we have positive operating leverage

Speaker 1: Okay. All right. Thanks. And then separately, on the deposit side, you had indicated the Direct Express, $3.5 billion in average deposit balances. You don't expect a material change based upon the extension and the way the agreement is right now. Okay. okay All right. all right Thanks. thanks And then separately, on the deposit side, you had indicated the Direct Express, $3.5 billion in average deposit balances. and then separately on the deposit side you had indicated the direct express $3.5 billion in average deposit balances You don't expect a material change based upon the extension and the way the agreement is right now. you don't expect a material change based upon the extension and the way the agreement is right now Is there anything that could change that, and if you could see potentially a faster decline in those balances than you anticipate at this point? Is there anything that could change that, and if you could see potentially a faster decline in those balances than you anticipate at this point? is there anything that could change that and if you could see potentially a faster decline in those balances than you anticipate at this point

Speaker 8: John, it's Peter. I think the answer to that question is no, nothing could change that that we foresee at the moment. We're still working on what the transition process looks like, but as the year unfolds, we will certainly communicate that as we can to what the outlook appears to be. But at the moment, we don't see anything changing in 2025 and really certainly into 2026 at the moment either. So I think the answer is we don't see any real changes to what we've communicated the last several quarters on this, and to the extent that it does, we will do our best to share that, but no changes at the moment. John, it's Peter. john it's peter I think the answer to that question is no, nothing could change that that we foresee at the moment. i think the answer to that question is no nothing could change that that we foresee at the moment We're still working on what the transition process looks like, but as the year unfolds, we will certainly communicate that as we can to what the outlook appears to be. we're still working on what the transition process looks like but as the year unfolds we will certainly communicate that as we can to what the outlook appears to be But at the moment, we don't see anything changing in 2025 and really certainly into 2026 at the moment either. but at the moment we don't see anything changing in 2025 and really certainly into 2026 at the moment either So I think the answer is we don't see any real changes to what we've communicated the last several quarters on this, and to the extent that it does, we will do our best to share that, but no changes at the moment. so i think the answer is we don't see any real changes to what we've communicated the last several quarters on this and to the extent that it does we will do our best to share that but no changes at the moment

Speaker 1: Okay. Great. Thanks for the caller. Okay. okay Great. great Thanks for the caller. thanks for the caller

Speaker 8: Thanks, John. Thanks, John. thanks john

Speaker 12: Our next question is from the line of Bernard von Gizycki with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions. Our next question is from the line of Bernard von Gizycki with Deutsche Bank. our next question is from the line of bernard von gizycki with deutsche bank Please proceed with your questions. please proceed with your questions

Speaker 4: Morning, Bernard. Morning, Bernard. morning bernard

Speaker 2: Hey, guys. Good morning. Just a question on expansion efforts. So you've talked about expanding in areas like the Southeast and the Mountain West. Are there targets for number of hires you're looking to add this year? Is there just a way to think about how much of the expense base is in incremental expense initiatives? Hey, guys. hey guys Good morning. good morning Just a question on expansion efforts. just a question on expansion efforts So you've talked about expanding in areas like the Southeast and the Mountain West. so you've talked about expanding in areas like the southeast and the mountain west Are there targets for number of hires you're looking to add this year? are there targets for number of hires you're looking to add this year Is there just a way to think about how much of the expense base is in incremental expense initiatives? is there just a way to think about how much of the expense base is in incremental expense initiatives

Speaker 8: Bernard, it's Peter. So in the Southeast, I would say that we are certainly looking at opportunistic hiring. We did a lot of hiring the last couple of years and feel pretty good at sort of the ramp-up that we've had so far. Bernard, it's Peter. bernard it's peter So in the Southeast, I would say that we are certainly looking at opportunistic hiring. so in the southeast i would say that we are certainly looking at opportunistic hiring We did a lot of hiring the last couple of years and feel pretty good at sort of the ramp-up that we've had so far. we did a lot of hiring the last couple of years and feel pretty good at sort of the ramp-up that we've had so far I think we feel like going into 2025, we're going to see opportunities, and we tend to take advantage of those in the Southeast, but probably not the same ramp-up that we had the last two years, but definitely looking at folks and adding that market, particularly in our Florida market. In the Mountain West, it's a little bit more probably a little more aggressive in the Mountain West to the extent that we can find talent. We're certainly looking at opportunities in the Denver market as well as in Phoenix. And so I think that both of those are markets that we would continue to add folks. And now, I would remind you too, though, we have tremendous opportunity to add folks in markets like DFW, in Houston, in Los Angeles, and San Francisco. I think we feel like going into 2025, we're going to see opportunities, and we tend to take advantage of those in the Southeast, but probably not the same ramp-up that we had the last two years, but definitely looking at folks and adding that market, particularly in our Florida market. i think we feel like going into 2025 we're going to see opportunities and we tend to take advantage of those in the southeast but probably not the same ramp-up that we had the last two years but definitely looking at folks and adding that market particularly in our florida market In the Mountain West, it's a little bit more probably a little more aggressive in the Mountain West to the extent that we can find talent. in the mountain west it's a little bit more probably a little more aggressive in the mountain west to the extent that we can find talent We're certainly looking at opportunities in the Denver market as well as in Phoenix. we're certainly looking at opportunities in the denver market as well as in phoenix And so I think that both of those are markets that we would continue to add folks. and so i think that both of those are markets that we would continue to add folks And now, I would remind you too, though, we have tremendous opportunity to add folks in markets like DFW, in Houston, in Los Angeles, and San Francisco. and now i would remind you too though we have tremendous opportunity to add folks in markets like dfw in houston in los angeles and san francisco So we feel fortunate that we are in such great markets where the economy is doing really well, there's population growth, and we feel like there's opportunities to continue to add folks in each of those markets on a go-forward basis, so. So we feel fortunate that we are in such great markets where the economy is doing really well, there's population growth, and we feel like there's opportunities to continue to add folks in each of those markets on a go-forward basis, so. so we feel fortunate that we are in such great markets where the economy is doing really well there's population growth and we feel like there's opportunities to continue to add folks in each of those markets on a go-forward basis so

Speaker 2: Okay. I appreciate that. And then maybe just on M&A, with an easing in the regulatory environment expected from here, just thoughts on how would you think about potentially doing a whole bank deal or a branch or a portfolio acquisition, just any areas of those that could be of potential interest? Okay. okay I appreciate that. i appreciate that And then maybe just on M&A, with an easing in the regulatory environment expected from here, just thoughts on how would you think about potentially doing a whole bank deal or a branch or a portfolio acquisition, just any areas of those that could be of potential interest? and then maybe just on m&a with an easing in the regulatory environment expected from here just thoughts on how would you think about potentially doing a whole bank deal or a branch or a portfolio acquisition just any areas of those that could be of potential interest

Speaker 4: Thank you, Bernard. The strategy for us has really not changed. We have historically been a very patient acquirer. We've only done one deal in the last 20+ years and are continuing to focus on organic growth. Peter just talked about the markets that we operate in. Thank you, Bernard. thank you bernard The strategy for us has really not changed. the strategy for us has really not changed We have historically been a very patient acquirer. we have historically been a very patient acquirer We've only done one deal in the last 20+ years and are continuing to focus on organic growth. we've only done one deal in the last 20+ years and are continuing to focus on organic growth Peter just talked about the markets that we operate in. peter just talked about the markets that we operate in We think we've got lots of opportunities to continue to grow in those markets and also to continue to add talent selectively where it makes sense for us to do so. And we feel like we've got the right balance of sort of product mix and focus as an organization, especially with our strong commercial focus as the best bank for what we believe businesses in the marketplace, but also really strong wealth management and retail franchise. So we'll continue to be patient and really focus primarily on organic growth. Certainly, there might be some opportunities that come along in terms of team liftouts, in terms of product capabilities, etc., that we'll look at periodically, but again, primarily focused on organic growth. We think we've got lots of opportunities to continue to grow in those markets and also to continue to add talent selectively where it makes sense for us to do so. we think we've got lots of opportunities to continue to grow in those markets and also to continue to add talent selectively where it makes sense for us to do so And we feel like we've got the right balance of sort of product mix and focus as an organization, especially with our strong commercial focus as the best bank for what we believe businesses in the marketplace, but also really strong wealth management and retail franchise. and we feel like we've got the right balance of sort of product mix and focus as an organization especially with our strong commercial focus as the best bank for what we believe businesses in the marketplace but also really strong wealth management and retail franchise So we'll continue to be patient and really focus primarily on organic growth. so we'll continue to be patient and really focus primarily on organic growth Certainly, there might be some opportunities that come along in terms of team liftouts, in terms of product capabilities, etc., that we'll look at periodically, but again, primarily focused on organic growth. certainly there might be some opportunities that come along in terms of team liftouts in terms of product capabilities etc that we'll look at periodically but again primarily focused on organic growth

Speaker 2: Okay. Great. Thanks for taking my questions. Okay. okay Great. great Thanks for taking my questions. thanks for taking my questions

Speaker 12: The next question is from the line of Anthony Elian with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed with your question. The next question is from the line of Anthony Elian with J.P. the next question is from the line of anthony elian with j.p Morgan. morgan Please proceed with your question. please proceed with your question

Speaker 5: Morning, Anthony. Morning, Anthony. morning anthony

Speaker 11: Hi, everyone. Does your loan growth outlook for 2025 include any uptick in utilization rates, which looks like have been flat the past couple of quarters? Hi, everyone. hi everyone Does your loan growth outlook for 2025 include any uptick in utilization rates, which looks like have been flat the past couple of quarters? does your loan growth outlook for 2025 include any uptick in utilization rates which looks like have been flat the past couple of quarters

Speaker 8: Anthony, it's Peter. No, it really doesn't. I think that you might consider that a factor probably to all the banks' loan outlook. I think utilization has been pretty flat for quite a while now. It's certainly been below historical numbers that people that have been in this a long, long time, but we aren't necessarily factoring that into the outlook that we're providing. And to the extent utilization were to pick up, that would be a good thing. Of course, any one of our businesses is going to have utilization sort of moving up and down depending on what's going on in that particular industry. But on the whole, what I would tell you is we've pretty much kept it flat. Anthony, it's Peter. anthony it's peter No, it really doesn't. no it really doesn't I think that you might consider that a factor probably to all the banks' loan outlook. i think that you might consider that a factor probably to all the banks' loan outlook I think utilization has been pretty flat for quite a while now. i think utilization has been pretty flat for quite a while now It's certainly been below historical numbers that people that have been in this a long, long time, but we aren't necessarily factoring that into the outlook that we're providing. it's certainly been below historical numbers that people that have been in this a long long time but we aren't necessarily factoring that into the outlook that we're providing And to the extent utilization were to pick up, that would be a good thing. and to the extent utilization were to pick up that would be a good thing Of course, any one of our businesses is going to have utilization sort of moving up and down depending on what's going on in that particular industry. of course any one of our businesses is going to have utilization sort of moving up and down depending on what's going on in that particular industry But on the whole, what I would tell you is we've pretty much kept it flat. but on the whole what i would tell you is we've pretty much kept it flat

Speaker 11: Thank you. Thank you. thank you Then my follow-up: could you provide more color on NPAs maybe for Melinda? I know you called out the impacts from higher rates, but was there anything specific in the fourth quarter that contributed to the increase you saw? Thank you. Then my follow-up: could you provide more color on NPAs maybe for Melinda? then my follow-up could you provide more color on npas maybe for melinda I know you called out the impacts from higher rates, but was there anything specific in the fourth quarter that contributed to the increase you saw? i know you called out the impacts from higher rates but was there anything specific in the fourth quarter that contributed to the increase you saw Thank you. thank you

Speaker 3: Yeah, this is Melinda. The NPA increase was about $58 million quarter over quarter, which on the whole, for a portfolio of our size, I would consider that very, very modest. It was centered around four or five different names, so still very granular. We did have one commercial real estate loan move into the NPA category, and that was approximately $30 million. So nothing really unusual. Again, the commonality there is pressure from higher interest rates on overall profitability and ability to service debt. Yeah, this is Melinda. yeah this is melinda The NPA increase was about $58 million quarter over quarter, which on the whole, for a portfolio of our size, I would consider that very, very modest. the npa increase was about $58 million quarter over quarter which on the whole for a portfolio of our size i would consider that very very modest It was centered around four or five different names, so still very granular. it was centered around four or five different names so still very granular We did have one commercial real estate loan move into the NPA category, and that was approximately $30 million. we did have one commercial real estate loan move into the npa category and that was approximately $30 million So nothing really unusual. so nothing really unusual Again, the commonality there is pressure from higher interest rates on overall profitability and ability to service debt. again the commonality there is pressure from higher interest rates on overall profitability and ability to service debt And the other commonality that we've seen, not just in NPAs, but really in the charge-offs this quarter, were companies that have an orientation towards serving consumer discretionary products. There's just still some pressure there from a consumer perspective in terms of what they have available. But on the whole, the credit portfolio, I think, performed quite well, and the migration that we saw was pretty much expected and very much in line with sort of the normalization trends. And just as one other comment, our absolute levels of NPAs at about 60 basis points is about half of what our long-term average is. So yes, we saw an increase, but still relatively low, and consider that pretty manageable from our perspective. And the other commonality that we've seen, not just in NPAs, but really in the charge-offs this quarter, were companies that have an orientation towards serving consumer discretionary products. and the other commonality that we've seen not just in npas but really in the charge-offs this quarter were companies that have an orientation towards serving consumer discretionary products There's just still some pressure there from a consumer perspective in terms of what they have available. there's just still some pressure there from a consumer perspective in terms of what they have available But on the whole, the credit portfolio, I think, performed quite well, and the migration that we saw was pretty much expected and very much in line with sort of the normalization trends. but on the whole the credit portfolio i think performed quite well and the migration that we saw was pretty much expected and very much in line with sort of the normalization trends And just as one other comment, our absolute levels of NPAs at about 60 basis points is about half of what our long-term average is. and just as one other comment our absolute levels of npas at about 60 basis points is about half of what our long-term average is So yes, we saw an increase, but still relatively low, and consider that pretty manageable from our perspective. so yes we saw an increase but still relatively low and consider that pretty manageable from our perspective

Speaker 11: Thank you. Thank you. thank you

Speaker 3: Welcome. Welcome. welcome

Speaker 10: Our next question is from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW. Please proceed with your questions. Our next question is from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW. our next question is from the line of chris mcgratty with kbw Please proceed with your questions. please proceed with your questions

Speaker 5: Good morning, Chris. Good morning, Chris. good morning chris

Speaker 10: Hey, good morning. Hey, good morning. hey good morning Jim, a question on the modest balance sheet restructuring that you did in the quarter of the bond sale. I mean, the earnback within a year is pretty compelling. I guess the question, why not be more aggressive either now or in the next coming quarters? You've got the capital to absorb it and just do what I think unlock that range and efficiency that you talked about. Jim, a question on the modest balance sheet restructuring that you did in the quarter of the bond sale. jim a question on the modest balance sheet restructuring that you did in the quarter of the bond sale I mean, the earnback within a year is pretty compelling. i mean the earnback within a year is pretty compelling I guess the question, why not be more aggressive either now or in the next coming quarters? i guess the question why not be more aggressive either now or in the next coming quarters You've got the capital to absorb it and just do what I think unlock that range and efficiency that you talked about. you've got the capital to absorb it and just do what i think unlock that range and efficiency that you talked about

Speaker 5: Good morning, Chris. When we look at the options for capital return, we still really do favor share repurchase over securities repositioning. Securities repositioning is essentially neutral to tangible book value in the long run. It's just time geography. I realize it does move around earnings and can maybe from an optics standpoint spruce things up. Good morning, Chris. good morning chris When we look at the options for capital return, we still really do favor share repurchase over securities repositioning. when we look at the options for capital return we still really do favor share repurchase over securities repositioning Securities repositioning is essentially neutral to tangible book value in the long run. securities repositioning is essentially neutral to tangible book value in the long run It's just time geography. it's just time geography I realize it does move around earnings and can maybe from an optics standpoint spruce things up. i realize it does move around earnings and can maybe from an optics standpoint spruce things up But if we have to make choices, we would much rather put it in the share repurchase and other capital return options that we think have a real return to shareholders. But if we have to make choices, we would much rather put it in the share repurchase and other capital return options that we think have a real return to shareholders. but if we have to make choices we would much rather put it in the share repurchase and other capital return options that we think have a real return to shareholders

Speaker 10: Okay. And then I guess my follow-up, just a clarification, Jim, on the guidance. Are all the guides NII fees, expenses relative to GAAP reported numbers? Can you confirm that? Okay. okay And then I guess my follow-up, just a clarification, Jim, on the guidance. and then i guess my follow-up just a clarification jim on the guidance Are all the guides NII fees, expenses relative to GAAP reported numbers? are all the guides nii fees expenses relative to gaap reported numbers Can you confirm that? can you confirm that

Speaker 5: Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Very relative to GAAP numbers. Yes. yes Yeah. yeah Yeah. yeah Very relative to GAAP numbers. very relative to gaap numbers

Speaker 10: Thank you. As all the guides are. Thank you. Thank you. thank you As all the guides are. as all the guides are Thank you. thank you

Speaker 12: At this time, there are no additional questions. I'll now turn the call back to Mr. Curt Farmer for closing remarks. At this time, there are no additional questions. at this time there are no additional questions I'll now turn the call back to Mr. Curt Farmer for closing remarks. i'll now turn the call back to mr curt farmer for closing remarks

Speaker 4: Thank you to all of you for joining our call this morning. As always, thank you for your continued interest in Comerica. We hope you have a very good day. Thank you. Thank you to all of you for joining our call this morning. thank you to all of you for joining our call this morning As always, thank you for your continued interest in Comerica. as always thank you for your continued interest in comerica We hope you have a very good day. we hope you have a very good day Thank you. thank you

Speaker 12: This will conclude today's conference. We disconnect your lines at this time. This will conclude today's conference. this will conclude today's conference We disconnect your lines at this time. we disconnect your lines at this time We thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day. we thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day