BERKLEY W R CORP — Call Transcript 2021

Good day, and welcome to W. R. Berkley Corporation's First Quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Today's conference call is being recorded. The speaker's remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words, including, without limitation, believes, expects or estimates. We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates, or expectations contemplated by us will in fact be achieved. Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2020, and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors which may materially affect our results. W. R. Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley. Please go ahead, sir. Mike, thank you very much, and good afternoon all, and welcome to our Q1 2021 call. On the call, in addition to myself, you also have Bill Berkley, our Executive Chairman, and Rich Baio, Group Chief Financial Officer. We're going to follow a similar agenda to what we've done in the past. Rich is going to do the initial heavy lift and walk us through the quarter and some of the highlights. I will follow him with a few comments, and then we'll be opening it up for Q&A. I'm happy to take the conversation anywhere participants would like to take it. with that, Rich, if you want to get us going, please. Sure, Rob. Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. The headline this quarter is a record underwriting profit with premium growth of more than 11% and solid net investment income and gains, which resulted in a return on beginning of year equity of 14.5%. The company reported net income of $230 million, or $1.23 per share. The breakdown is operating income of $202 million, or $1.08 per share, and after-tax net investment gains of $28 million or $0.15 per share. Beginning with underwriting income and the components thereof, gross premiums written grew by more than $250 million or 11.4% to almost $2.5 billion. Net premiums written grew 11.1% to more than $2 billion, reflecting an increase in both segments. The insurance segment grew approximately 10% to almost $1.75 billion in the quarter, with an increase in all lines of business with the exception of workers' compensation. Professional liability led this growth with 37.6%, followed by commercial auto of 21%, other liability of 13.1%, and short tail lines of 5.6%. All lines of business grew in reinsurance and monoline excess segment, increasing net premiums written by 18.2%, more than $300 million. Casualty reinsurance led this growth with 21.9%, followed by 13.8% in property reinsurance, 13.6% in monoline excess. The compounding rate improvement in excess of loss cost trends has partially contributed to the expansion of underwriting income. Other contributors have included lower claims frequency and non-CAT property losses, along with growth in lines of business that are generating the best risk-adjusted returns. Underwriting income increased approximately 250% to $183 million. The industry continued to experience above average catastrophe losses in the quarter, including the winter storms in Texas, and we have again been able to demonstrate our disciplined management to cat exposure. Our current accident year catastrophe losses were approximately $36 million, or 1.9 loss ratio points, including 0.8 loss ratio points for COVID-19 related losses. This compares with the prior year cat losses of $79 million, or 4.7 loss ratio points, which included three loss ratio points for COVID-19 related losses. The reported loss ratio was 60.6% in the current quarter, compared with 65.5% in 2020. Prior year loss reserves developed favorably by $3 million or 0.2 loss ratio points in the current quarter. Accordingly, our current accident year loss ratio excluding catastrophes was 58.9%, compared with 61% a year ago. The expense ratio was 29.5%, reflecting an improvement of 1.9 points over the prior year quarter. The growth in net premiums earned continues to outpace underwriting expenses by a margin of almost 7%, significantly benefiting the expense ratio. Although we continue to benefit from reduced costs associated with travel and entertainment due to the pandemic, we are implementing initiatives that will enable us to operate more efficiently in the future. Summing this up, our accident year combined ratio excluding catastrophes was 88.4%, representing an improvement of four points over the prior year quarter. Shifting gears to investments, net investment income for the quarter was approximately $159 million. The alternative investment portfolio, including investment funds and arbitrage trading account, provided strong results. The fixed maturity portfolio declined due to the lower interest rate environment and the higher cash and cash equivalent position we've maintained over the past few quarters. We did begin to reinvest cash as interest rates rose in the quarter, however, continue to maintain a defensive position with more than $2 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Our duration remains relatively short at 2.4 years, enabling us to further benefit from future increases in interest rates. At the same time, our credit quality remains strong at an AA-. Pre-tax net investment gains in the quarter of $35 million is primarily made up of realized gains on investments of $76 million, partially offset by a reduction in unrealized gains on equity securities of $24 million and an increase in the allowance for expected credit losses of $17 million. The realized gain was primarily attributable to sale of a private equity investment in real estate assets. Corporate expense partially increased due to debt extinguishment costs of $3.6 million relating to the redemption of hybrid securities on March 1st. In line with our plans to benefit from the low interest rate environment, we've pre-funded for a redemption and a couple maturities in early 2022. To this end, you will have seen that we announced the redemption of our hybrid securities for June 1st, which will result in debt extinguishment costs in the second quarter of approximately $8 million pre-tax. Stockholders' equity increased more than $100 million to approximately $6.4 billion after share repurchases and dividends of $51 million in the quarter. The company repurchased approximately half a million shares for $30 million in 2021 at an average price per share of $63.82. Net unrealized gain position in stockholders' equity declined by $90 million due to the rise in interest rates in the quarter. However, this was partially mitigated by our decision to maintain a relatively short duration. Book value per share grew 2.4% before share repurchases and dividends. Finally, cash flow from operations more than doubled quarter-over-quarter to over $300 million. With that, I'll turn it back to you, Rob. Thank you. Rich, thank you very much. I noticed that there's a correlation here that the better the quarter, the less you leave for me to comment on. I guess I should be pleased and grateful that there's not much left for me. Having said that, let me offer a couple of comments. I'll try not to be too repetitive on the heels of Rich's comments. I would like to flag a couple of things. First off, there is no doubt that there is a meaningful tailwind that exists in the commercial lines marketplace. Certainly this organization is benefiting from that. To that end, our top line, I think this is the highest growth rate we have seen since, Rich, I think you have to go back to 2013, you had mentioned to me when you looked back in the history books. Not only is the growth and market conditions attractive. I think what's even more encouraging is that there is a growing amount of evidence that the momentum is going to grow from here, and that there is a fair amount of runway still before us. Again, I think that bodes well for not just how we see the coming quarters unfold, but quite frankly, the next several years. To that end, clearly the domestic economy and certainly parts of the global economy are improving. That, without a doubt, is going to benefit our top line. We are seeing the health and wellness of our insureds continuing to improve. In addition to that, per the comment a moment ago, we continue to see the opportunity to push rate further. You may have noticed that we got approaching 13 points of rate in the quarter, excluding workers' compensation. We did have a little bit of a discussion internally, and we dug into it as to how do you compare this approaching 13 points of rate with what we saw in the fourth quarter. After digging into it, really what this is a reflection of is there are parts of the portfolio where rate adequacy has gotten to the point where we are so encouraged by the available margin that we are more interested in pushing harder on the exposure growth and not as preoccupied in pushing harder on the rate front. Again, we view that as a real plus. We are coming up for some of the major product lines on a third year in a row where we are getting meaningful rate increases. At this stage, we are seeing, as Rich suggested, rate on rate and in many product lines where we have been getting rate on rate in excess of loss cost trends. We think that is very encouraging for what that means for margin. Before I offer two thoughts on the loss ratio, two other quick data points that I've referenced on occasion in the past. Renewal retention ratio, in spite of what we're pushing on with rates and all of the other underwriting actions that we are taking, is still hanging in there at approximately 80%. Our new business relativity metric, which is another data point we've shared with many of you in the past, came in at 1.024%, which effectively what that means is on as much of an apples to apples basis as we are able to create in comparing a new account versus a renewal account, we are effectively surcharging a new account by 2.4% more. Why? Because a new piece of business you know less about than obviously part of your portfolio that you've been on for some period of time. I think it's important because people need to understand when you look at the growth, yes, it is rate, but it's also exposure growth, but we are not compromising in that growth in the quality of the portfolio. Rich gave you some details complementary to the release on the loss ratio. Clearly, as he suggested, we're benefiting from the higher rates. Couple other data points I would suggest. We are not taking a lot of credit for shift in terms and conditions when we come up with many of our loss picks. We will take some oftentimes, but certainly, we are never taking full credit for it. We want to see how that comes into focus, so more to come on that front. The other piece, and I suspect that there has been some other discussion around the impact on frequency due to COVID. Again, that is something that we have been reluctant to declare victory on. There certainly are some lines of business where you have more immediate visibility as to what the impact of that reduction in frequency. There are other product lines where there is less visibility. On that topic, I did want to offer a couple of quick comments on workers' compensation, which is the one outlier, as we've discussed in the past couple of quarters, as far as the marketplace and where things are going. Clearly, workers' compensation has been a product line where competition has been on the rise. We have seen the action of state rating bureaus, and ultimately, we'll have to see how that unfolds over time. Two comments there. One is, from our perspective, it is likely that the pendulum will swing too far in a certain direction. As a result of that, as we have shared with people in the past, it continues to be our view that we expect the workers' comp market to likely begin to bottom out more visibly by the end of this year or perhaps the first half of next year. Could it be a quarter or two later? Yes, generally speaking, that's how we see things coming into focus. The other comment on workers' comp that I would like to flag because there has been an observation or two shared around the loss picks that we are carrying for the 2020 year, given how benign the frequency has been in 2020, why have we not done anything with that pick? It's very simple. We do not want to declare victory prematurely. We, as we have in the past, start out with what we believe is a measured pick, and as that seasons, we will adjust as we see fit and appropriate. The last comment on comp, which I will offer, and I think I've made the comment in the past, is that I think that the lack of frequency that has existed recently in the comp line due to COVID has, to a certain extent, perhaps subsidized a severity trend, which looks pretty ugly in the comp line. Certainly, it is possible that the marketplace is setting itself up for a disappointment if there is not an appropriate level of attention paid to loss cost trend and really unpacking what is going on with severity, what is going on with frequency, and what one should expect as frequency returns to a more traditional norm. I will leave it there as far as comp. That's perhaps more than people were looking for. Expense ratio, again, Rich touched on. As we've mentioned in the past, COVID is offering effectively a benefit of about 50 basis points to the expense ratio. When he and I do the back-of-the-envelope math, that's what we're backing back in to the expense ratio. Having said that, it's also worth noting that we have some meaningful investments that are going on in the business, in particular on the technology as well as the data analytics front. These are our big lifts, which we think are clearly going to make us a better business, more efficient, and will allow us to be able to be making better, more insightful decisions. Let me just move on briefly to the investment portfolio. I'm not going to get into much detail here because Rich really covered it. I would just say that our approach to a focus on total return, our emphasis on alternatives continue to pay off. quite frankly, it's helping to compensate and then some, the discipline that we are exercising with how we are managing the fixed income portfolio. As Rich mentioned, we continue to maintain the duration on the shorter end at 2.4 years, and the quality is not something that we have or will be compromising on, sitting there at AA-. That being said, we are being rewarded for that discipline, as you can see where book value ended up at the end of the quarter. while we were not completely insulated, we were far less impacted than those that have decided to take duration out farther. I just want to offer a couple of quick comments on what I'll refer to as cycle management. From our perspective, cycle management is the name of the game. Knowing when to grow, knowing when to shrink. We, as a team, are very conscious of the fact that we cannot control the market. We are very conscious of the fact that this is a cyclical industry, and we are very aware of the reality that what we are able to control is what we do. Oftentimes, people will ask the chairman or Rich or myself where are the best opportunities? The answer we give, because we do not want to get into the details, is look at our business, look at our public information, look at where we're growing. We grow where the margins are and grow where the opportunity is, and we are not shy or scared or intimidated to let the business go when we don't think it is a good use of capital. You can see that very clearly in our numbers. Right now, you can see the discipline that our colleagues are exercising in the workers' comp line. You can see in other parts of the business, whether it be the primary insurance professional liability line, or what's happening in parts of our reinsurance portfolio. We are in the business of managing capital, and we are going to deploy it where we think it makes sense. Again, we have our eyes wide open. Comment from me before we open it up for questions, and that is a bit of recognition for where we are. This business, from my perspective, is particularly well-positioned for the market condition we are in, and likely what the market conditions will be tomorrow. We're here because we have a fabulous team. We have 6,543 people that work together as a team in the interest of all stakeholders. We were able to achieve this quarter because of their efforts in spite of the challenges that exist in the world, particularly over the past 12 years, and we thank them for what they have done. Mike, I will pause there, and we'd be very pleased to open it up for questions. At this time, I'd like to inform everyone, in order to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Please stand by while we compile a Q&A roster. Your first question comes from Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. Hi. Oh, hi. Hi, good afternoon. Hi, good evening. My first question, just want to start on the pricing conversation. I said you got just under 13% ex workers' comp, and you guys sound pretty positive on the factors out there that should continue with the momentum you said for this year and perhaps into next year. Does that 13% feel like a good number for the year? The second question, I guess you guys also mentioned that as you kind of looked at that 13 and beneath the hood, there was a portion of your business that's at rate adequacy. Do you have a percentage of your book that would fall within that rate adequate bucket? Well, thank you for the questions. As far as a specific percentage, we don't, but I would tell you it is a growing percentage. Maybe to the first question, we look at the business at a pretty granular level. We look at it by product line, we look at it by product line by operating unit, and then of course, we are looking at it at a more macro level. We have a view as to what is an appropriate risk-adjusted return and depending on where we are vis-a-vis that return will guide us towards how much of a priority rate is, versus once we get to a certain point, while rate will remain a priority, to what extent are we focused on actually growing the portfolio from an exposure perspective. As far as the 13% goes, I don't know for sure what tomorrow will bring. We continue to dissect the book and try and evaluate it. Could it go down a little bit? Could it go up a little bit? I would caution you not to read too much into one quarter one way or another. We are very encouraged directionally with where things are going, and again, the margin that we are seeing come through in the book itself. Okay, thanks. Then my second question, you got around just over 200 basis points of underlying loss ratio improvement this quarter. That was down just a little bit relative to the Q4. I know in past discussions you guys had mentioned that the rate versus trend would become more evident in 2021. I'm assuming that comment still applies, and can you just kind of help us think through that and how we should think about rate earning in the book during the next three quarters of the year? rate earnings through in the next couple of quarters of the year, we can help you if maybe we take it offline and help you do the math on how that is coming through based on the public information that we've made available. I would tell you that part of it depends on the loss trend that you are using and ex the loss trend, what is left over, and then using a rough number, obviously 2/3 of that inures to the benefit of the loss ratio, approximately 1/3 inures to is associated with the expense. I would suggest if you'd like that we take it offline, and we can sort of help you use the public information to do the math as to what an earned level would be and how one can extrapolate from there. clearly, given the realities on the rate on rate that we are getting in excess of loss cost trend, just at a macro level, that is going to inure to the benefit, obviously, of the loss ratio. Okay, that's helpful. Thanks for the color. Your next question comes from Mike Zaremski from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, Mike. Hey. Good afternoon, Rob. Maybe we can just stick with loss trend. In the earnings release, the term persistent social inflation was used. I think some of the data points we've seen on an industry basis in terms of paid loss ratios and some executives, some of your peers, talking about a near-term lull in terms of maybe social inflation, but specifically claims frequencies. Curious if you're still experiencing a lull, and is there a COVID benefit that's been helping the underlying loss ratio or just the overall loss ratio? Look, I think clearly frequency has been impacted by COVID. I think as the economy is opening up more and more every day, that benefit is eroding quickly. I think also as you're going to see the legal system opening back up, specifically the court system opening back up, I think you're going to see that erode as well, which is one of the reasons why we have been reluctant to reach a conclusion as to what it's going to look like when the dust settles. That all being said, clearly there is a benefit as a result of COVID on frequency trend. Having said that, the big driver, if you will, of social inflation has been more severity, or what I would define as frequency of severity. Okay. That's helpful. I guess shifting gears a little bit back to the expense ratio, which has been a great story for a while now. Given your remarks, which sounded like you guys feel good about growth continuing well in excess of expense inflation, should we be thinking about a newer, lower normal in the near term for the expense ratio? There's still, I think maybe correct me if I'm wrong, 30 is a level you guys are gravitating to as a target. I'm not in a position to give you a specific number, Mike, but I can assure you that we as an organization, all of us as a team collectively, are focused on making sure that we have a competitive platform to be operating from, and it is our goal to push through the 30 number. Okay. Maybe lastly, maybe I missed it in the prepared remarks. Can you talk about any specific COVID losses this quarter that were taken? Also, if you could update us on approximately what percentage of your COVID reserves are in the IBNR bucket. Thanks. Yeah. We'll have enough information in the Q to make you go blind on COVID. As I think we may have referenced in the release, in the current quarter, we had losses of approximately $15 million. Again, we'll have all kinds of additional information in the Q. COVID is a tricky one, particularly given a lot of our exposure is associated with event cancellation. A, trying to figure out when the world is going to open up, and B, trying to figure out what are the options in trying to triage a situation between a full cancellation versus just maybe a partial event. We continue to try and make sure that we are putting our best foot forward. At the same time, we're conscious of the fact that we have imperfect information. Okay. Thank you very much. Sure. Your next question comes from Yaron Kinar from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Hi, good afternoon, everybody. Good evening. Good evening. My first question goes back to the rate commentary. I guess I'm just trying to understand the willingness to take maybe less rate increase in order to more aggressively go after business that you view as more adequately priced. Is that a Berkley-specific phenomenon, or is it something that you see for the industry as a whole? The reason I ask this is I think you mentioned that the retention rates remain pretty steady in the 80s. I would have thought that if it were a Berkley-specific phenomenon, maybe we would have seen some increase in the retention rate. Well, I can't speak to what others do or to that matter, how they're thinking about it. I can just tell you that we're pretty comfortable with a certain bottom line, what the available margin is, and we are starting to push on that. Do I think that it's going to materially flow through at this stage? No, I don't think so as far as the retention ratio. Do I think as you're going to see that become more and more the case with the portfolio? Yes, I think you'll probably see that a bit more. Okay. That's helpful. another question, just with regards to the reinsurance business I think in the past you've said that you saw more opportunities or better rate adequacy in insurance over reinsurance. if that is indeed the case, can you maybe talk about why the rate of growth in reinsurance is actually exceeding the rate of top-line growth in insurance? Well, to the extent I made that comment, and I don't know if I did or didn't, but if I did, I assume it was some number of quarters ago, if not more. I would imagine that there was a moment in time when the insurance business was growing considerably quicker. Certainly, parts of it were growing considerably quicker than the reinsurance business. As a result of that's where it would've made sense for us to be deploying capital, and that's where my colleagues would've been looking to grow. Again, I don't have a recollection of the comment or the timing of the comment, but what I can assure you of is that we are focused on growing the business in areas at time that we think that the margin is there. Obviously, the reinsurance marketplace is going through a significant transition. our colleagues that have, through discipline, shrank the portfolio considerably are now finding it to be a marketplace that is much more attractive, hence the growth you are seeing. Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Your next question comes from Ryan Tunis from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead. Hey. Thanks. Good evening. Good afternoon. I guess I wanted to drill a little bit more down in the loss ratio and just looking at the ex cat loss ratio in insurance. It's kind of been hovering in that, call it 59-59.5 range for the past several quarters. Obviously, I can't really think of a lot of seasonality will be weighing on that. It seems like the magnitude of earned rate versus trend, it should be widening. Maybe just a little bit of color on why we're not seeing more sequential improvement in the ex-cat loss ratio in insurance. Rich, do you have any thoughts on that? I have a comment or two, but did you have anything? If I look for the insurance segment, year-over-year, certainly, we have improved by two points. For the reasons that we've been discussing, I think if you look for the full year of 2020, we were just over 60%. We did have some improvement coming through, and I think as you'll probably discuss, Rob, I think part of it has been our conservative nature with regards to the design ratios that we have as well in terms of making sure that we don't get too far ahead of ourselves with regards to how we're establishing our reserve position. I'll defer that to you in terms of that discussion. Yeah, no, I think that's correct, which I think is consistent with what we have suggested in the past that we're going to start out with a pretty measured pick, and then we will tighten it up over time. Workers' compensation being an example of what I think we referenced earlier on the call. Okay. I guess I'm just trying to square this with the rate commentary you're feeling. You clearly feel good that the book is more rate adequate. I guess the one observation I would make is if I go back into 2019, your ex-cat loss ratio's only two points lower than it was two years ago when we were kind of getting into the hard market. If these loss picks don't turn out to just be conservative and actually turn out to be prudent and correct, then I guess the question is, why are you happy? Why are you satisfied with just two points of loss ratio improvement, at a point when you're willing to start to give up a little on the rate front? Well, I think that ultimately, Ryan, you got to remember that we have a bit of a bouquet here. while we do look at the portfolio and we do speak to you and others at a macro level, what we were trying to do is give you a little bit of insight that there are 53 different operating units, many of them with various product lines within each one of the operating units. there are components of that where we think that we are getting to a point that the rates are so attractive that we're prepared to maybe not push as hard on the rate front. There are many components of it, as you can see, given the rate that we continue to achieve, where we think there is opportunity, and quite frankly, need to be getting more rate. What we were trying to do is give you a sense and help you sort of think about the rate adequacy and how you compare what we got in the quarter with what we got in prior quarters. Again, at this stage, I think that it's very clear, at least in our opinion, that we continue to get something measured in the hundreds of basis points in excess of loss cost. We are doing that in most cases for a second time, and the stage is being set for us to do that for a third time. Thank you. Your next question comes from Meyer Shields from KBW. Please go ahead. Thanks, Kyle. Rob, you talked about workers' compensation severity getting worse. Is that something you're seeing? Is that something you expect? Is that tied to an economic recovery? Yeah. It's something that we have been observing in the data for some period of time, and it's like many things, you see a couple of isolated data points, and then you start to pay more attention, and you start to find more and more of them. I don't think that we could give you a precise answer, but directionally, that's what we're seeing happening. Okay. Is it fair to separate that from the decline in frequency? I know they're not comparable, but personal auto frequency fell off a cliff and severity skyrocketed. I'm wondering whether that's the same phenomenon we're just getting. Clearly during COVID, there were a lot of people sheltering in place. There were a lot of factories that were closed. There were a lot of people not going into offices. There were a lot of people sitting at their kitchen table. As a result of that, you saw less frequency. Having said that, again, we have noticed that severity seems to becoming more and more of an issue. Okay. No, that's helpful. If I can shift gears briefly, talk a little bit about the technological investment. Does that have any implications for the, how do I put it, strategic decentralization of underwriting? No. We view what we are doing on that front, which will perhaps bring some efficiency, but more often than just efficiency, it's also going to be empowering people with better tools and better information so they can make better choices. Certainly there's an efficiency component as well. Okay, perfect. Thank you. Your next question comes from Brian Meredith from UBS. Please go ahead. Hey, thanks. Evening. A couple quick questions. The first one, this is just a numbers question. The COVID losses, is that booked in your cat loss like you've typically done? Yes. The $15 million that Rich referred to from the current quarter is in that. The actual, if you will, traditional cat number, I think, Rich, was about $21 million. That's concrete. With the balance- Good in the quarter. Good. Helpful. Thank you. Second question, Rob, I'm curious, are you seeing at all any appetite now by the standard market to reach up into the E&S market, we'll call it, to maybe take some business given where rate and stuff is going? Are we seeing any indication of that yet? None whatsoever that we are seeing. If anything, it continues to go in the other direction, Brian. Our submission flow is gaining momentum, partly because the economy, but partly because I think the standard market continues to revisit their appetite. I think you can see that in part how they're pushing more for rate, but simultaneously they're weeding out their portfolio where I think they're revisiting what that appetite should be. That is creating opportunity for the specialty market, in particular the E&S carriers. We're certainly in the middle of that. Got you. My last question, I'm just curious, Rob. Given all of the uncertainty with respect to what loss trend's going to be looking like here going forward, you pointed out yourself, is the return on capital that you're looking at on business higher today than it would've been a couple of years ago? Do you have to factor that into when you're thinking your pricing decisions, that uncertainty? I think back at prior cycle turns where you didn't know what loss trend really was running at. It was so high, and there were massive price increases, ended up resulting in some massive reserve releases going forward. How do you think about that? We have a view as to what trend is. We think that it's based on reasonable fact that is available and analysis, and quite frankly, I would expect that we will be, over time, reaping the benefits from certainly the rate that we are getting in excess of that. Do I think that we are being overly conservative or overly optimistic with our pick on trend? No. Do I think we are being thoughtful and measured? Yes. Having said that, as suggested earlier, Brian, I think regardless of the trend number that you realistically want to use, we are getting rate that is several hundred basis points in excess of any trend number I've heard people using. Great. Thank you. Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, press star one on your telephone. Your next question comes from Phil Stefano from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Yeah. Thanks. Good afternoon. Good afternoon. Rob, in your opening remarks, you had talked about there being a runway for growth and having a good bit of confidence in that. I would assume that when you talk about that, it's a product of both rate and exposure, and it feels like we're focusing quite a bit on the rate side so far. I guess the first question, is my interpretation right? Maybe you could talk to us about exposure and the extent to which that might be driving top-line growth as we see a potential slowdown in the rate that everyone has mentioned so far. Okay. Well, maybe a couple of things. First off, I would encourage people not to get overly consumed on the fact that our rate increase was only 13%, which I think by most measures is reasonably robust. Maybe that view is not shared by all. That having been said, I also think that it's generally understood at this stage, and hopefully it continues, that we have an economy that is getting back on its feet and building momentum. As a result of that, we think that you're going to see payrolls going up. We think that you're going to see just the amount of commerce, you're going to see receipts going up. You're going to see more economic activity. Much of what we do is priced off of payrolls, receipts, or economic activity, and I think that that bodes well for the growth. In addition to that, you continue to see, as I referenced a moment ago, a standard market revisiting its appetite and pushing business into specialty, in particular the E&S market, which is very much our strike zone, which is why historically we have done particularly well in these type of market conditions, and we think there's early evidence to support that that will continue to be the case, and we have no reason to believe that it won't. I guess lastly, I should add that on the topic of specialty and E&S, there are a lot of small businesses that went out of business. You're going to see them getting back on their feet, whether they're starting up again or starting something new. And new businesses tend to find their insurance coverage in the specialty, in particular the E&S market. Lastly, I think I should add that I think there's a reasonable chance that there is going to be, later this year and next year, a meaningful catch-up on the audit premium front. When you put all of those pieces together, in my opinion, while rate is and continues to be an important part of the story, and certainly for the past many quarters, it has been a rate-centric discussion because of the need that the industry had for rate. At this stage with an economy that is opening back up and cooperating, I think that you're going to see great opportunity in the top line. Okay. No, I think that makes sense. Focusing back on the investments in technology that you had talked about, I was hoping you can give a little more color there. Is this something that COVID triggered? Was it happening in the background and we just weren't talking about it? If you want to give us a flavor for any, is there expense pressures now from the build-out that might abate in the near future? How we should be thinking about that? No, this is not something that was triggered in any way, shape, or form by COVID. It's rather just a focus on how we continue to move the business forward, and how we use technology to make the business better, how we're able to use data and analytics to empower people to make more informed decisions. As far as what does that mean specifically for the expense ratio, I don't think it's particularly earth-shattering, but it's certainly something to keep in mind, certainly something that Rich and I pay attention to. While it's not in the expense ratio per se, but as it relates to expenses, one thing that I didn't mention, and I don't believe Rich mentioned, we have done a fair amount of work on our balance sheet in this low interest rate environment. Rich, again, I think we both skipped over this, but you want to just give 30 seconds on what we've done on the capital front, please? Sure, Rob. I guess over the last 18 months, we've done a number of refinancings and capital transactions. We've raised about $1.75 billion of senior debt and hybrid capital with the intended use of proceeds to basically take out certain hybrid securities that were at higher costs and fund maturities that we had up through March of 2022. With that, we would anticipate that some of the results coming out of that would be an extended average maturity of about 10 years, that we would be reducing our cost of capital by nearly 100 basis points. If you were to look at the interest expense, probably in 2021, we'd see a reduction of a few million dollars in interest expense, and then going into 2022, we'd see an additional 20+ million dollars of interest expense reduction building off of the 2021 number. Definitely some good opportunity to take advantage of the low interest rate environment that we're seeing. Thanks, Rich. Phil, I know that doesn't get right at your expense ratio question, but obviously it's a meaningful impact on our economic model. just dawned on me, we should have flagged that with everybody. No, that's great. Thank you. Appreciate the color. That was our last question. At this time, I will turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley for closing comments. Okay. Mike, thank you very much, and thank you all for dialing in. We appreciate your questions and engagement. I think by virtually any measure, it was a very good quarter, and we remain quite convinced that there are more good quarters to come. Talk to you in 90 days. Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Speaker 5: Good day, and welcome to W. R. Berkley Corporation's First Quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Today's conference call is being recorded. The speaker's remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words, including, without limitation, believes, expects or estimates. We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates, or expectations contemplated by us will in fact be achieved. Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2020, and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors which may materially affect our results. Good day, and welcome to W. good day and welcome to w R. r Berkley Corporation's First Quarter 2021 earnings conference call. berkley corporation's first quarter 2021 earnings conference call Today's conference call is being recorded. today's conference call is being recorded The speaker's remarks may contain forward-looking statements. the speaker's remarks may contain forward-looking statements Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words, including, without limitation, believes, expects or estimates. some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words including without limitation believes expects or estimates We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates, or expectations contemplated by us will in fact be achieved. we caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans estimates or expectations contemplated by us will in fact be achieved Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31st, 2020, and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors which may materially affect our results. please refer to our annual report on form 10-k for the year ended december 31st 2020 and our other filings made with the sec for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors which may materially affect our results W. R. Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley. Please go ahead, sir. W. w R. r Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. berkley corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information future events or otherwise I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley. i would now like to turn the call over to mr rob berkley Please go ahead, sir. please go ahead sir

Speaker 8: Mike, thank you very much, and good afternoon all, and welcome to our Q1 2021 call. On the call, in addition to myself, you also have Bill Berkley, our Executive Chairman, and Rich Baio, Group Chief Financial Officer. We're going to follow a similar agenda to what we've done in the past. Rich is going to do the initial heavy lift and walk us through the quarter and some of the highlights. I will follow him with a few comments, and then we'll be opening it up for Q&A. I'm happy to take the conversation anywhere participants would like to take it. with that, Rich, if you want to get us going, please. Mike, thank you very much, and good afternoon all, and welcome to our Q1 2021 call. mike thank you very much and good afternoon all and welcome to our q1 2021 call On the call, in addition to myself, you also have Bill Berkley, our Executive Chairman, and Rich Baio, Group Chief Financial Officer. on the call in addition to myself you also have bill berkley our executive chairman and rich baio group chief financial officer We're going to follow a similar agenda to what we've done in the past. we're going to follow a similar agenda to what we've done in the past Rich is going to do the initial heavy lift and walk us through the quarter and some of the highlights. rich is going to do the initial heavy lift and walk us through the quarter and some of the highlights I will follow him with a few comments, and then we'll be opening it up for Q&A. i will follow him with a few comments and then we'll be opening it up for q&a I'm happy to take the conversation anywhere participants would like to take it. with that, Rich, if you want to get us going, please. i'm happy to take the conversation anywhere participants would like to take it with that rich if you want to get us going please

Speaker 7: Sure, Rob. Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. The headline this quarter is a record underwriting profit with premium growth of more than 11% and solid net investment income and gains, which resulted in a return on beginning of year equity of 14.5%. The company reported net income of $230 million, or $1.23 per share. The breakdown is operating income of $202 million, or $1.08 per share, and after-tax net investment gains of $28 million or $0.15 per share. Beginning with underwriting income and the components thereof, gross premiums written grew by more than $250 million or 11.4% to almost $2.5 billion. Net premiums written grew 11.1% to more than $2 billion, reflecting an increase in both segments. The insurance segment grew approximately 10% to almost $1.75 billion in the quarter, with an increase in all lines of business with the exception of workers' compensation. Sure, Rob. sure rob Thank you. thank you Good afternoon, everyone. good afternoon everyone The headline this quarter is a record underwriting profit with premium growth of more than 11% and solid net investment income and gains, which resulted in a return on beginning of year equity of 14.5%. the headline this quarter is a record underwriting profit with premium growth of more than 11% and solid net investment income and gains which resulted in a return on beginning of year equity of 14.5% The company reported net income of $230 million, or $1.23 per share. the company reported net income of $230 million or $1.23 per share The breakdown is operating income of $202 million, or $1.08 per share, and after-tax net investment gains of $28 million or $0.15 per share. the breakdown is operating income of $202 million or $1.08 per share and after-tax net investment gains of $28 million or $0.15 per share Beginning with underwriting income and the components thereof, gross premiums written grew by more than $250 million or 11.4% to almost $2.5 billion. beginning with underwriting income and the components thereof gross premiums written grew by more than $250 million or 11.4% to almost $2.5 billion Net premiums written grew 11.1% to more than $2 billion, reflecting an increase in both segments. net premiums written grew 11.1% to more than $2 billion reflecting an increase in both segments The insurance segment grew approximately 10% to almost $1.75 billion in the quarter, with an increase in all lines of business with the exception of workers' compensation. the insurance segment grew approximately 10% to almost $1.75 billion in the quarter with an increase in all lines of business with the exception of workers' compensation Professional liability led this growth with 37.6%, followed by commercial auto of 21%, other liability of 13.1%, and short tail lines of 5.6%. All lines of business grew in reinsurance and monoline excess segment, increasing net premiums written by 18.2%, more than $300 million. Casualty reinsurance led this growth with 21.9%, followed by 13.8% in property reinsurance, 13.6% in monoline excess. The compounding rate improvement in excess of loss cost trends has partially contributed to the expansion of underwriting income. Other contributors have included lower claims frequency and non-CAT property losses, along with growth in lines of business that are generating the best risk-adjusted returns. Underwriting income increased approximately 250% to $183 million. The industry continued to experience above average catastrophe losses in the quarter, including the winter storms in Texas, and we have again been able to demonstrate our disciplined management to cat exposure. Professional liability led this growth with 37.6%, followed by commercial auto of 21%, other liability of 13.1%, and short tail lines of 5.6%. professional liability led this growth with 37.6% followed by commercial auto of 21% other liability of 13.1% and short tail lines of 5.6% All lines of business grew in reinsurance and monoline excess segment, increasing net premiums written by 18.2%, more than $300 million. all lines of business grew in reinsurance and monoline excess segment increasing net premiums written by 18.2% more than $300 million Casualty reinsurance led this growth with 21.9%, followed by 13.8% in property reinsurance, 13.6% in monoline excess. casualty reinsurance led this growth with 21.9% followed by 13.8% in property reinsurance 13.6% in monoline excess The compounding rate improvement in excess of loss cost trends has partially contributed to the expansion of underwriting income. the compounding rate improvement in excess of loss cost trends has partially contributed to the expansion of underwriting income Other contributors have included lower claims frequency and non-CAT property losses, along with growth in lines of business that are generating the best risk-adjusted returns. other contributors have included lower claims frequency and non-cat property losses along with growth in lines of business that are generating the best risk-adjusted returns Underwriting income increased approximately 250% to $183 million. underwriting income increased approximately 250% to $183 million The industry continued to experience above average catastrophe losses in the quarter, including the winter storms in Texas, and we have again been able to demonstrate our disciplined management to cat exposure. the industry continued to experience above average catastrophe losses in the quarter including the winter storms in texas and we have again been able to demonstrate our disciplined management to cat exposure Our current accident year catastrophe losses were approximately $36 million, or 1.9 loss ratio points, including 0.8 loss ratio points for COVID-19 related losses. This compares with the prior year cat losses of $79 million, or 4.7 loss ratio points, which included three loss ratio points for COVID-19 related losses. The reported loss ratio was 60.6% in the current quarter, compared with 65.5% in 2020. Prior year loss reserves developed favorably by $3 million or 0.2 loss ratio points in the current quarter. Accordingly, our current accident year loss ratio excluding catastrophes was 58.9%, compared with 61% a year ago. The expense ratio was 29.5%, reflecting an improvement of 1.9 points over the prior year quarter. The growth in net premiums earned continues to outpace underwriting expenses by a margin of almost 7%, significantly benefiting the expense ratio. Our current accident year catastrophe losses were approximately $36 million, or 1.9 loss ratio points, including 0.8 loss ratio points for COVID-19 related losses. our current accident year catastrophe losses were approximately $36 million or 1.9 loss ratio points including 0.8 loss ratio points for covid-19 related losses This compares with the prior year cat losses of $79 million, or 4.7 loss ratio points, which included three loss ratio points for COVID-19 related losses. this compares with the prior year cat losses of $79 million or 4.7 loss ratio points which included three loss ratio points for covid-19 related losses The reported loss ratio was 60.6% in the current quarter, compared with 65.5% in 2020. the reported loss ratio was 60.6% in the current quarter compared with 65.5% in 2020 Prior year loss reserves developed favorably by $3 million or 0.2 loss ratio points in the current quarter. prior year loss reserves developed favorably by $3 million or 0.2 loss ratio points in the current quarter Accordingly, our current accident year loss ratio excluding catastrophes was 58.9%, compared with 61% a year ago. accordingly our current accident year loss ratio excluding catastrophes was 58.9% compared with 61% a year ago The expense ratio was 29.5%, reflecting an improvement of 1.9 points over the prior year quarter. the expense ratio was 29.5% reflecting an improvement of 1.9 points over the prior year quarter The growth in net premiums earned continues to outpace underwriting expenses by a margin of almost 7%, significantly benefiting the expense ratio. the growth in net premiums earned continues to outpace underwriting expenses by a margin of almost 7% significantly benefiting the expense ratio Although we continue to benefit from reduced costs associated with travel and entertainment due to the pandemic, we are implementing initiatives that will enable us to operate more efficiently in the future. Summing this up, our accident year combined ratio excluding catastrophes was 88.4%, representing an improvement of four points over the prior year quarter. Shifting gears to investments, net investment income for the quarter was approximately $159 million. The alternative investment portfolio, including investment funds and arbitrage trading account, provided strong results. The fixed maturity portfolio declined due to the lower interest rate environment and the higher cash and cash equivalent position we've maintained over the past few quarters. Although we continue to benefit from reduced costs associated with travel and entertainment due to the pandemic, we are implementing initiatives that will enable us to operate more efficiently in the future. although we continue to benefit from reduced costs associated with travel and entertainment due to the pandemic we are implementing initiatives that will enable us to operate more efficiently in the future Summing this up, our accident year combined ratio excluding catastrophes was 88.4%, representing an improvement of four points over the prior year quarter. summing this up our accident year combined ratio excluding catastrophes was 88.4% representing an improvement of four points over the prior year quarter Shifting gears to investments, net investment income for the quarter was approximately $159 million. shifting gears to investments net investment income for the quarter was approximately $159 million The alternative investment portfolio, including investment funds and arbitrage trading account, provided strong results. the alternative investment portfolio including investment funds and arbitrage trading account provided strong results The fixed maturity portfolio declined due to the lower interest rate environment and the higher cash and cash equivalent position we've maintained over the past few quarters. the fixed maturity portfolio declined due to the lower interest rate environment and the higher cash and cash equivalent position we've maintained over the past few quarters We did begin to reinvest cash as interest rates rose in the quarter, however, continue to maintain a defensive position with more than $2 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Our duration remains relatively short at 2.4 years, enabling us to further benefit from future increases in interest rates. At the same time, our credit quality remains strong at an AA-. Pre-tax net investment gains in the quarter of $35 million is primarily made up of realized gains on investments of $76 million, partially offset by a reduction in unrealized gains on equity securities of $24 million and an increase in the allowance for expected credit losses of $17 million. The realized gain was primarily attributable to sale of a private equity investment in real estate assets. We did begin to reinvest cash as interest rates rose in the quarter, however, continue to maintain a defensive position with more than $2 billion in cash and cash equivalents. Our duration remains relatively short at 2.4 years, enabling us to further benefit from future increases in interest rates. we did begin to reinvest cash as interest rates rose in the quarter however continue to maintain a defensive position with more than $2 billion in cash and cash equivalents. our duration remains relatively short at 2.4 years enabling us to further benefit from future increases in interest rates At the same time, our credit quality remains strong at an AA-. at the same time our credit quality remains strong at an aa- Pre-tax net investment gains in the quarter of $35 million is primarily made up of realized gains on investments of $76 million, partially offset by a reduction in unrealized gains on equity securities of $24 million and an increase in the allowance for expected credit losses of $17 million. pre-tax net investment gains in the quarter of $35 million is primarily made up of realized gains on investments of $76 million partially offset by a reduction in unrealized gains on equity securities of $24 million and an increase in the allowance for expected credit losses of $17 million The realized gain was primarily attributable to sale of a private equity investment in real estate assets. the realized gain was primarily attributable to sale of a private equity investment in real estate assets Corporate expense partially increased due to debt extinguishment costs of $3.6 million relating to the redemption of hybrid securities on March 1st. In line with our plans to benefit from the low interest rate environment, we've pre-funded for a redemption and a couple maturities in early 2022. To this end, you will have seen that we announced the redemption of our hybrid securities for June 1st, which will result in debt extinguishment costs in the second quarter of approximately $8 million pre-tax. Stockholders' equity increased more than $100 million to approximately $6.4 billion after share repurchases and dividends of $51 million in the quarter. The company repurchased approximately half a million shares for $30 million in 2021 at an average price per share of $63.82. Net unrealized gain position in stockholders' equity declined by $90 million due to the rise in interest rates in the quarter. Corporate expense partially increased due to debt extinguishment costs of $3.6 million relating to the redemption of hybrid securities on March 1st. corporate expense partially increased due to debt extinguishment costs of $3.6 million relating to the redemption of hybrid securities on march 1st In line with our plans to benefit from the low interest rate environment, we've pre-funded for a redemption and a couple maturities in early 2022. in line with our plans to benefit from the low interest rate environment we've pre-funded for a redemption and a couple maturities in early 2022 To this end, you will have seen that we announced the redemption of our hybrid securities for June 1st, which will result in debt extinguishment costs in the second quarter of approximately $8 million pre-tax. to this end you will have seen that we announced the redemption of our hybrid securities for june 1st which will result in debt extinguishment costs in the second quarter of approximately $8 million pre-tax Stockholders' equity increased more than $100 million to approximately $6.4 billion after share repurchases and dividends of $51 million in the quarter. stockholders' equity increased more than $100 million to approximately $6.4 billion after share repurchases and dividends of $51 million in the quarter The company repurchased approximately half a million shares for $30 million in 2021 at an average price per share of $63.82. the company repurchased approximately half a million shares for $30 million in 2021 at an average price per share of $63.82 Net unrealized gain position in stockholders' equity declined by $90 million due to the rise in interest rates in the quarter. net unrealized gain position in stockholders' equity declined by $90 million due to the rise in interest rates in the quarter However, this was partially mitigated by our decision to maintain a relatively short duration. Book value per share grew 2.4% before share repurchases and dividends. Finally, cash flow from operations more than doubled quarter-over-quarter to over $300 million. With that, I'll turn it back to you, Rob. Thank you. However, this was partially mitigated by our decision to maintain a relatively short duration. however this was partially mitigated by our decision to maintain a relatively short duration Book value per share grew 2.4% before share repurchases and dividends. book value per share grew 2.4% before share repurchases and dividends Finally, cash flow from operations more than doubled quarter-over-quarter to over $300 million. finally cash flow from operations more than doubled quarter-over-quarter to over $300 million With that, I'll turn it back to you, Rob. with that i'll turn it back to you rob Thank you. thank you

Speaker 8: Rich, thank you very much. I noticed that there's a correlation here that the better the quarter, the less you leave for me to comment on. I guess I should be pleased and grateful that there's not much left for me. Having said that, let me offer a couple of comments. I'll try not to be too repetitive on the heels of Rich's comments. I would like to flag a couple of things. First off, there is no doubt that there is a meaningful tailwind that exists in the commercial lines marketplace. Certainly this organization is benefiting from that. To that end, our top line, I think this is the highest growth rate we have seen since, Rich, I think you have to go back to 2013, you had mentioned to me when you looked back in the history books. Rich, thank you very much. rich thank you very much I noticed that there's a correlation here that the better the quarter, the less you leave for me to comment on. i noticed that there's a correlation here that the better the quarter the less you leave for me to comment on I guess I should be pleased and grateful that there's not much left for me. i guess i should be pleased and grateful that there's not much left for me Having said that, let me offer a couple of comments. having said that let me offer a couple of comments I'll try not to be too repetitive on the heels of Rich's comments. i'll try not to be too repetitive on the heels of rich's comments I would like to flag a couple of things. i would like to flag a couple of things First off, there is no doubt that there is a meaningful tailwind that exists in the commercial lines marketplace. first off there is no doubt that there is a meaningful tailwind that exists in the commercial lines marketplace Certainly this organization is benefiting from that. certainly this organization is benefiting from that To that end, our top line, I think this is the highest growth rate we have seen since, Rich, I think you have to go back to 2013, you had mentioned to me when you looked back in the history books. to that end our top line i think this is the highest growth rate we have seen since rich i think you have to go back to 2013 you had mentioned to me when you looked back in the history books Not only is the growth and market conditions attractive. I think what's even more encouraging is that there is a growing amount of evidence that the momentum is going to grow from here, and that there is a fair amount of runway still before us. Again, I think that bodes well for not just how we see the coming quarters unfold, but quite frankly, the next several years. To that end, clearly the domestic economy and certainly parts of the global economy are improving. That, without a doubt, is going to benefit our top line. We are seeing the health and wellness of our insureds continuing to improve. In addition to that, per the comment a moment ago, we continue to see the opportunity to push rate further. You may have noticed that we got approaching 13 points of rate in the quarter, excluding workers' compensation. Not only is the growth and market conditions attractive. not only is the growth and market conditions attractive I think what's even more encouraging is that there is a growing amount of evidence that the momentum is going to grow from here, and that there is a fair amount of runway still before us. i think what's even more encouraging is that there is a growing amount of evidence that the momentum is going to grow from here and that there is a fair amount of runway still before us Again, I think that bodes well for not just how we see the coming quarters unfold, but quite frankly, the next several years. again i think that bodes well for not just how we see the coming quarters unfold but quite frankly the next several years To that end, clearly the domestic economy and certainly parts of the global economy are improving. to that end clearly the domestic economy and certainly parts of the global economy are improving That, without a doubt, is going to benefit our top line. that without a doubt is going to benefit our top line We are seeing the health and wellness of our insureds continuing to improve. we are seeing the health and wellness of our insureds continuing to improve In addition to that, per the comment a moment ago, we continue to see the opportunity to push rate further. in addition to that per the comment a moment ago we continue to see the opportunity to push rate further You may have noticed that we got approaching 13 points of rate in the quarter, excluding workers' compensation. you may have noticed that we got approaching 13 points of rate in the quarter excluding workers' compensation We did have a little bit of a discussion internally, and we dug into it as to how do you compare this approaching 13 points of rate with what we saw in the fourth quarter. After digging into it, really what this is a reflection of is there are parts of the portfolio where rate adequacy has gotten to the point where we are so encouraged by the available margin that we are more interested in pushing harder on the exposure growth and not as preoccupied in pushing harder on the rate front. Again, we view that as a real plus. We are coming up for some of the major product lines on a third year in a row where we are getting meaningful rate increases. We did have a little bit of a discussion internally, and we dug into it as to how do you compare this approaching 13 points of rate with what we saw in the fourth quarter. we did have a little bit of a discussion internally and we dug into it as to how do you compare this approaching 13 points of rate with what we saw in the fourth quarter After digging into it, really what this is a reflection of is there are parts of the portfolio where rate adequacy has gotten to the point where we are so encouraged by the available margin that we are more interested in pushing harder on the exposure growth and not as preoccupied in pushing harder on the rate front. after digging into it really what this is a reflection of is there are parts of the portfolio where rate adequacy has gotten to the point where we are so encouraged by the available margin that we are more interested in pushing harder on the exposure growth and not as preoccupied in pushing harder on the rate front Again, we view that as a real plus. again we view that as a real plus We are coming up for some of the major product lines on a third year in a row where we are getting meaningful rate increases. we are coming up for some of the major product lines on a third year in a row where we are getting meaningful rate increases At this stage, we are seeing, as Rich suggested, rate on rate and in many product lines where we have been getting rate on rate in excess of loss cost trends. We think that is very encouraging for what that means for margin. Before I offer two thoughts on the loss ratio, two other quick data points that I've referenced on occasion in the past. Renewal retention ratio, in spite of what we're pushing on with rates and all of the other underwriting actions that we are taking, is still hanging in there at approximately 80%. At this stage, we are seeing, as Rich suggested, rate on rate and in many product lines where we have been getting rate on rate in excess of loss cost trends. at this stage we are seeing as rich suggested rate on rate and in many product lines where we have been getting rate on rate in excess of loss cost trends We think that is very encouraging for what that means for margin. we think that is very encouraging for what that means for margin Before I offer two thoughts on the loss ratio, two other quick data points that I've referenced on occasion in the past. before i offer two thoughts on the loss ratio two other quick data points that i've referenced on occasion in the past Renewal retention ratio, in spite of what we're pushing on with rates and all of the other underwriting actions that we are taking, is still hanging in there at approximately 80%. renewal retention ratio in spite of what we're pushing on with rates and all of the other underwriting actions that we are taking is still hanging in there at approximately 80% Our new business relativity metric, which is another data point we've shared with many of you in the past, came in at 1.024%, which effectively what that means is on as much of an apples to apples basis as we are able to create in comparing a new account versus a renewal account, we are effectively surcharging a new account by 2.4% more. Why? Because a new piece of business you know less about than obviously part of your portfolio that you've been on for some period of time. I think it's important because people need to understand when you look at the growth, yes, it is rate, but it's also exposure growth, but we are not compromising in that growth in the quality of the portfolio. Rich gave you some details complementary to the release on the loss ratio. Our new business relativity metric, which is another data point we've shared with many of you in the past, came in at 1.024%, which effectively what that means is on as much of an apples to apples basis as we are able to create in comparing a new account versus a renewal account, we are effectively surcharging a new account by 2.4% more. our new business relativity metric which is another data point we've shared with many of you in the past came in at 1.024% which effectively what that means is on as much of an apples to apples basis as we are able to create in comparing a new account versus a renewal account we are effectively surcharging a new account by 2.4% more Why? why Because a new piece of business you know less about than obviously part of your portfolio that you've been on for some period of time. because a new piece of business you know less about than obviously part of your portfolio that you've been on for some period of time I think it's important because people need to understand when you look at the growth, yes, it is rate, but it's also exposure growth, but we are not compromising in that growth in the quality of the portfolio. Rich gave you some details complementary to the release on the loss ratio. i think it's important because people need to understand when you look at the growth yes it is rate but it's also exposure growth but we are not compromising in that growth in the quality of the portfolio. rich gave you some details complementary to the release on the loss ratio Clearly, as he suggested, we're benefiting from the higher rates. Couple other data points I would suggest. We are not taking a lot of credit for shift in terms and conditions when we come up with many of our loss picks. We will take some oftentimes, but certainly, we are never taking full credit for it. We want to see how that comes into focus, so more to come on that front. The other piece, and I suspect that there has been some other discussion around the impact on frequency due to COVID. Again, that is something that we have been reluctant to declare victory on. There certainly are some lines of business where you have more immediate visibility as to what the impact of that reduction in frequency. There are other product lines where there is less visibility. Clearly, as he suggested, we're benefiting from the higher rates. clearly as he suggested we're benefiting from the higher rates Couple other data points I would suggest. couple other data points i would suggest We are not taking a lot of credit for shift in terms and conditions when we come up with many of our loss picks. we are not taking a lot of credit for shift in terms and conditions when we come up with many of our loss picks We will take some oftentimes, but certainly, we are never taking full credit for it. we will take some oftentimes but certainly we are never taking full credit for it We want to see how that comes into focus, so more to come on that front. we want to see how that comes into focus so more to come on that front The other piece, and I suspect that there has been some other discussion around the impact on frequency due to COVID. the other piece and i suspect that there has been some other discussion around the impact on frequency due to covid Again, that is something that we have been reluctant to declare victory on. again that is something that we have been reluctant to declare victory on There certainly are some lines of business where you have more immediate visibility as to what the impact of that reduction in frequency. there certainly are some lines of business where you have more immediate visibility as to what the impact of that reduction in frequency There are other product lines where there is less visibility. there are other product lines where there is less visibility On that topic, I did want to offer a couple of quick comments on workers' compensation, which is the one outlier, as we've discussed in the past couple of quarters, as far as the marketplace and where things are going. Clearly, workers' compensation has been a product line where competition has been on the rise. We have seen the action of state rating bureaus, and ultimately, we'll have to see how that unfolds over time. Two comments there. One is, from our perspective, it is likely that the pendulum will swing too far in a certain direction. As a result of that, as we have shared with people in the past, it continues to be our view that we expect the workers' comp market to likely begin to bottom out more visibly by the end of this year or perhaps the first half of next year. On that topic, I did want to offer a couple of quick comments on workers' compensation, which is the one outlier, as we've discussed in the past couple of quarters, as far as the marketplace and where things are going. on that topic i did want to offer a couple of quick comments on workers' compensation which is the one outlier as we've discussed in the past couple of quarters as far as the marketplace and where things are going Clearly, workers' compensation has been a product line where competition has been on the rise. clearly workers' compensation has been a product line where competition has been on the rise We have seen the action of state rating bureaus, and ultimately, we'll have to see how that unfolds over time. we have seen the action of state rating bureaus and ultimately we'll have to see how that unfolds over time Two comments there. two comments there One is, from our perspective, it is likely that the pendulum will swing too far in a certain direction. one is from our perspective it is likely that the pendulum will swing too far in a certain direction As a result of that, as we have shared with people in the past, it continues to be our view that we expect the workers' comp market to likely begin to bottom out more visibly by the end of this year or perhaps the first half of next year. as a result of that as we have shared with people in the past it continues to be our view that we expect the workers' comp market to likely begin to bottom out more visibly by the end of this year or perhaps the first half of next year Could it be a quarter or two later? Yes, generally speaking, that's how we see things coming into focus. The other comment on workers' comp that I would like to flag because there has been an observation or two shared around the loss picks that we are carrying for the 2020 year, given how benign the frequency has been in 2020, why have we not done anything with that pick? It's very simple. We do not want to declare victory prematurely. We, as we have in the past, start out with what we believe is a measured pick, and as that seasons, we will adjust as we see fit and appropriate. Could it be a quarter or two later? could it be a quarter or two later Yes, generally speaking, that's how we see things coming into focus. yes generally speaking that's how we see things coming into focus The other comment on workers' comp that I would like to flag because there has been an observation or two shared around the loss picks that we are carrying for the 2020 year, given how benign the frequency has been in 2020, why have we not done anything with that pick? the other comment on workers' comp that i would like to flag because there has been an observation or two shared around the loss picks that we are carrying for the 2020 year given how benign the frequency has been in 2020 why have we not done anything with that pick It's very simple. it's very simple We do not want to declare victory prematurely. we do not want to declare victory prematurely We, as we have in the past, start out with what we believe is a measured pick, and as that seasons, we will adjust as we see fit and appropriate. we as we have in the past start out with what we believe is a measured pick and as that seasons we will adjust as we see fit and appropriate The last comment on comp, which I will offer, and I think I've made the comment in the past, is that I think that the lack of frequency that has existed recently in the comp line due to COVID has, to a certain extent, perhaps subsidized a severity trend, which looks pretty ugly in the comp line. Certainly, it is possible that the marketplace is setting itself up for a disappointment if there is not an appropriate level of attention paid to loss cost trend and really unpacking what is going on with severity, what is going on with frequency, and what one should expect as frequency returns to a more traditional norm. I will leave it there as far as comp. That's perhaps more than people were looking for. Expense ratio, again, Rich touched on. The last comment on comp, which I will offer, and I think I've made the comment in the past, is that I think that the lack of frequency that has existed recently in the comp line due to COVID has, to a certain extent, perhaps subsidized a severity trend, which looks pretty ugly in the comp line. the last comment on comp which i will offer and i think i've made the comment in the past is that i think that the lack of frequency that has existed recently in the comp line due to covid has to a certain extent perhaps subsidized a severity trend which looks pretty ugly in the comp line Certainly, it is possible that the marketplace is setting itself up for a disappointment if there is not an appropriate level of attention paid to loss cost trend and really unpacking what is going on with severity, what is going on with frequency, and what one should expect as frequency returns to a more traditional norm. certainly it is possible that the marketplace is setting itself up for a disappointment if there is not an appropriate level of attention paid to loss cost trend and really unpacking what is going on with severity what is going on with frequency and what one should expect as frequency returns to a more traditional norm I will leave it there as far as comp. i will leave it there as far as comp That's perhaps more than people were looking for. that's perhaps more than people were looking for Expense ratio, again, Rich touched on. expense ratio again rich touched on As we've mentioned in the past, COVID is offering effectively a benefit of about 50 basis points to the expense ratio. When he and I do the back-of-the-envelope math, that's what we're backing back in to the expense ratio. Having said that, it's also worth noting that we have some meaningful investments that are going on in the business, in particular on the technology as well as the data analytics front. These are our big lifts, which we think are clearly going to make us a better business, more efficient, and will allow us to be able to be making better, more insightful decisions. Let me just move on briefly to the investment portfolio. I'm not going to get into much detail here because Rich really covered it. As we've mentioned in the past, COVID is offering effectively a benefit of about 50 basis points to the expense ratio. as we've mentioned in the past covid is offering effectively a benefit of about 50 basis points to the expense ratio When he and I do the back-of-the-envelope math, that's what we're backing back in to the expense ratio. when he and i do the back-of-the-envelope math that's what we're backing back in to the expense ratio Having said that, it's also worth noting that we have some meaningful investments that are going on in the business, in particular on the technology as well as the data analytics front. having said that it's also worth noting that we have some meaningful investments that are going on in the business in particular on the technology as well as the data analytics front These are our big lifts, which we think are clearly going to make us a better business, more efficient, and will allow us to be able to be making better, more insightful decisions. these are our big lifts which we think are clearly going to make us a better business more efficient and will allow us to be able to be making better more insightful decisions Let me just move on briefly to the investment portfolio. let me just move on briefly to the investment portfolio I'm not going to get into much detail here because Rich really covered it. i'm not going to get into much detail here because rich really covered it I would just say that our approach to a focus on total return, our emphasis on alternatives continue to pay off. quite frankly, it's helping to compensate and then some, the discipline that we are exercising with how we are managing the fixed income portfolio. As Rich mentioned, we continue to maintain the duration on the shorter end at 2.4 years, and the quality is not something that we have or will be compromising on, sitting there at AA-. That being said, we are being rewarded for that discipline, as you can see where book value ended up at the end of the quarter. while we were not completely insulated, we were far less impacted than those that have decided to take duration out farther. I just want to offer a couple of quick comments on what I'll refer to as cycle management. I would just say that our approach to a focus on total return, our emphasis on alternatives continue to pay off. quite frankly, it's helping to compensate and then some, the discipline that we are exercising with how we are managing the fixed income portfolio. i would just say that our approach to a focus on total return our emphasis on alternatives continue to pay off quite frankly it's helping to compensate and then some the discipline that we are exercising with how we are managing the fixed income portfolio As Rich mentioned, we continue to maintain the duration on the shorter end at 2.4 years, and the quality is not something that we have or will be compromising on, sitting there at AA-. as rich mentioned we continue to maintain the duration on the shorter end at 2.4 years and the quality is not something that we have or will be compromising on sitting there at aa- That being said, we are being rewarded for that discipline, as you can see where book value ended up at the end of the quarter. while we were not completely insulated, we were far less impacted than those that have decided to take duration out farther. that being said we are being rewarded for that discipline as you can see where book value ended up at the end of the quarter while we were not completely insulated we were far less impacted than those that have decided to take duration out farther I just want to offer a couple of quick comments on what I'll refer to as cycle management. i just want to offer a couple of quick comments on what i'll refer to as cycle management From our perspective, cycle management is the name of the game. Knowing when to grow, knowing when to shrink. We, as a team, are very conscious of the fact that we cannot control the market. We are very conscious of the fact that this is a cyclical industry, and we are very aware of the reality that what we are able to control is what we do. Oftentimes, people will ask the chairman or Rich or myself where are the best opportunities? The answer we give, because we do not want to get into the details, is look at our business, look at our public information, look at where we're growing. We grow where the margins are and grow where the opportunity is, and we are not shy or scared or intimidated to let the business go when we don't think it is a good use of capital. From our perspective, cycle management is the name of the game. from our perspective cycle management is the name of the game Knowing when to grow, knowing when to shrink. knowing when to grow knowing when to shrink We, as a team, are very conscious of the fact that we cannot control the market. we as a team are very conscious of the fact that we cannot control the market We are very conscious of the fact that this is a cyclical industry, and we are very aware of the reality that what we are able to control is what we do. Oftentimes, people will ask the chairman or Rich or myself where are the best opportunities? we are very conscious of the fact that this is a cyclical industry and we are very aware of the reality that what we are able to control is what we do. oftentimes people will ask the chairman or rich or myself where are the best opportunities The answer we give, because we do not want to get into the details, is look at our business, look at our public information, look at where we're growing. the answer we give because we do not want to get into the details is look at our business look at our public information look at where we're growing We grow where the margins are and grow where the opportunity is, and we are not shy or scared or intimidated to let the business go when we don't think it is a good use of capital. we grow where the margins are and grow where the opportunity is and we are not shy or scared or intimidated to let the business go when we don't think it is a good use of capital You can see that very clearly in our numbers. Right now, you can see the discipline that our colleagues are exercising in the workers' comp line. You can see in other parts of the business, whether it be the primary insurance professional liability line, or what's happening in parts of our reinsurance portfolio. We are in the business of managing capital, and we are going to deploy it where we think it makes sense. Again, we have our eyes wide open. Comment from me before we open it up for questions, and that is a bit of recognition for where we are. This business, from my perspective, is particularly well-positioned for the market condition we are in, and likely what the market conditions will be tomorrow. We're here because we have a fabulous team. You can see that very clearly in our numbers. you can see that very clearly in our numbers Right now, you can see the discipline that our colleagues are exercising in the workers' comp line. right now you can see the discipline that our colleagues are exercising in the workers' comp line You can see in other parts of the business, whether it be the primary insurance professional liability line, or what's happening in parts of our reinsurance portfolio. you can see in other parts of the business whether it be the primary insurance professional liability line or what's happening in parts of our reinsurance portfolio We are in the business of managing capital, and we are going to deploy it where we think it makes sense. we are in the business of managing capital and we are going to deploy it where we think it makes sense Again, we have our eyes wide open. again we have our eyes wide open Comment from me before we open it up for questions, and that is a bit of recognition for where we are. comment from me before we open it up for questions and that is a bit of recognition for where we are This business, from my perspective, is particularly well-positioned for the market condition we are in, and likely what the market conditions will be tomorrow. this business from my perspective is particularly well-positioned for the market condition we are in and likely what the market conditions will be tomorrow We're here because we have a fabulous team. we're here because we have a fabulous team We have 6,543 people that work together as a team in the interest of all stakeholders. We were able to achieve this quarter because of their efforts in spite of the challenges that exist in the world, particularly over the past 12 years, and we thank them for what they have done. Mike, I will pause there, and we'd be very pleased to open it up for questions. We have 6,543 people that work together as a team in the interest of all stakeholders. we have 6,543 people that work together as a team in the interest of all stakeholders We were able to achieve this quarter because of their efforts in spite of the challenges that exist in the world, particularly over the past 12 years, and we thank them for what they have done. we were able to achieve this quarter because of their efforts in spite of the challenges that exist in the world particularly over the past 12 years and we thank them for what they have done Mike, I will pause there, and we'd be very pleased to open it up for questions. mike i will pause there and we'd be very pleased to open it up for questions

Speaker 5: At this time, I'd like to inform everyone, in order to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, press the pound key. Please stand by while we compile a Q&A roster. Your first question comes from Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead. At this time, I'd like to inform everyone, in order to ask a question, you will need to press star one on your telephone. at this time i'd like to inform everyone in order to ask a question you will need to press star one on your telephone To withdraw your question, press the pound key. to withdraw your question press the pound key Please stand by while we compile a Q&A roster. please stand by while we compile a q&a roster Your first question comes from Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo. your first question comes from elyse greenspan from wells fargo Please go ahead. please go ahead

Speaker 2: Hi. Oh, hi. Hi. hi Oh, hi. oh hi

Speaker 8: Hi, good afternoon. Hi, good afternoon. hi good afternoon

Speaker 2: Hi, good evening. My first question, just want to start on the pricing conversation. I said you got just under 13% ex workers' comp, and you guys sound pretty positive on the factors out there that should continue with the momentum you said for this year and perhaps into next year. Does that 13% feel like a good number for the year? The second question, I guess you guys also mentioned that as you kind of looked at that 13 and beneath the hood, there was a portion of your business that's at rate adequacy. Do you have a percentage of your book that would fall within that rate adequate bucket? Hi, good evening. hi good evening My first question, just want to start on the pricing conversation. my first question just want to start on the pricing conversation I said you got just under 13% ex workers' comp, and you guys sound pretty positive on the factors out there that should continue with the momentum you said for this year and perhaps into next year. i said you got just under 13% ex workers' comp and you guys sound pretty positive on the factors out there that should continue with the momentum you said for this year and perhaps into next year Does that 13% feel like a good number for the year? does that 13% feel like a good number for the year The second question, I guess you guys also mentioned that as you kind of looked at that 13 and beneath the hood, there was a portion of your business that's at rate adequacy. the second question i guess you guys also mentioned that as you kind of looked at that 13 and beneath the hood there was a portion of your business that's at rate adequacy Do you have a percentage of your book that would fall within that rate adequate bucket? do you have a percentage of your book that would fall within that rate adequate bucket

Speaker 8: Well, thank you for the questions. As far as a specific percentage, we don't, but I would tell you it is a growing percentage. Maybe to the first question, we look at the business at a pretty granular level. We look at it by product line, we look at it by product line by operating unit, and then of course, we are looking at it at a more macro level. We have a view as to what is an appropriate risk-adjusted return and depending on where we are vis-a-vis that return will guide us towards how much of a priority rate is, versus once we get to a certain point, while rate will remain a priority, to what extent are we focused on actually growing the portfolio from an exposure perspective. As far as the 13% goes, I don't know for sure what tomorrow will bring. Well, thank you for the questions. well thank you for the questions As far as a specific percentage, we don't, but I would tell you it is a growing percentage. as far as a specific percentage we don't but i would tell you it is a growing percentage Maybe to the first question, we look at the business at a pretty granular level. maybe to the first question we look at the business at a pretty granular level We look at it by product line, we look at it by product line by operating unit, and then of course, we are looking at it at a more macro level. we look at it by product line we look at it by product line by operating unit and then of course we are looking at it at a more macro level We have a view as to what is an appropriate risk-adjusted return and depending on where we are vis-a-vis that return will guide us towards how much of a priority rate is, versus once we get to a certain point, while rate will remain a priority, to what extent are we focused on actually growing the portfolio from an exposure perspective. we have a view as to what is an appropriate risk-adjusted return and depending on where we are vis-a-vis that return will guide us towards how much of a priority rate is versus once we get to a certain point while rate will remain a priority to what extent are we focused on actually growing the portfolio from an exposure perspective As far as the 13% goes, I don't know for sure what tomorrow will bring. as far as the 13% goes i don't know for sure what tomorrow will bring We continue to dissect the book and try and evaluate it. Could it go down a little bit? Could it go up a little bit? I would caution you not to read too much into one quarter one way or another. We are very encouraged directionally with where things are going, and again, the margin that we are seeing come through in the book itself. We continue to dissect the book and try and evaluate it. we continue to dissect the book and try and evaluate it Could it go down a little bit? could it go down a little bit Could it go up a little bit? could it go up a little bit I would caution you not to read too much into one quarter one way or another. i would caution you not to read too much into one quarter one way or another We are very encouraged directionally with where things are going, and again, the margin that we are seeing come through in the book itself. we are very encouraged directionally with where things are going and again the margin that we are seeing come through in the book itself

Speaker 2: Okay, thanks. Then my second question, you got around just over 200 basis points of underlying loss ratio improvement this quarter. That was down just a little bit relative to the Q4. I know in past discussions you guys had mentioned that the rate versus trend would become more evident in 2021. I'm assuming that comment still applies, and can you just kind of help us think through that and how we should think about rate earning in the book during the next three quarters of the year? Okay, thanks. okay thanks Then my second question, you got around just over 200 basis points of underlying loss ratio improvement this quarter. then my second question you got around just over 200 basis points of underlying loss ratio improvement this quarter That was down just a little bit relative to the Q4. that was down just a little bit relative to the q4 I know in past discussions you guys had mentioned that the rate versus trend would become more evident in 2021. i know in past discussions you guys had mentioned that the rate versus trend would become more evident in 2021 I'm assuming that comment still applies, and can you just kind of help us think through that and how we should think about rate earning in the book during the next three quarters of the year? i'm assuming that comment still applies and can you just kind of help us think through that and how we should think about rate earning in the book during the next three quarters of the year

Speaker 8: rate earnings through in the next couple of quarters of the year, we can help you if maybe we take it offline and help you do the math on how that is coming through based on the public information that we've made available. I would tell you that part of it depends on the loss trend that you are using and ex the loss trend, what is left over, and then using a rough number, obviously 2/3 of that inures to the benefit of the loss ratio, approximately 1/3 inures to is associated with the expense. I would suggest if you'd like that we take it offline, and we can sort of help you use the public information to do the math as to what an earned level would be and how one can extrapolate from there. rate earnings through in the next couple of quarters of the year, we can help you if maybe we take it offline and help you do the math on how that is coming through based on the public information that we've made available. rate earnings through in the next couple of quarters of the year we can help you if maybe we take it offline and help you do the math on how that is coming through based on the public information that we've made available I would tell you that part of it depends on the loss trend that you are using and ex the loss trend, what is left over, and then using a rough number, obviously 2/3 of that inures to the benefit of the loss ratio, approximately 1/3 inures to is associated with the expense. i would tell you that part of it depends on the loss trend that you are using and ex the loss trend what is left over and then using a rough number obviously 2/3 of that inures to the benefit of the loss ratio approximately 1/3 inures to is associated with the expense I would suggest if you'd like that we take it offline, and we can sort of help you use the public information to do the math as to what an earned level would be and how one can extrapolate from there. i would suggest if you'd like that we take it offline and we can sort of help you use the public information to do the math as to what an earned level would be and how one can extrapolate from there clearly, given the realities on the rate on rate that we are getting in excess of loss cost trend, just at a macro level, that is going to inure to the benefit, obviously, of the loss ratio. clearly, given the realities on the rate on rate that we are getting in excess of loss cost trend, just at a macro level, that is going to inure to the benefit, obviously, of the loss ratio. clearly given the realities on the rate on rate that we are getting in excess of loss cost trend just at a macro level that is going to inure to the benefit obviously of the loss ratio

Speaker 2: Okay, that's helpful. Thanks for the color. Okay, that's helpful. okay that's helpful Thanks for the color. thanks for the color

Speaker 5: Your next question comes from Mike Zaremski from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Mike Zaremski from Credit Suisse. your next question comes from mike zaremski from credit suisse Please go ahead. please go ahead

Speaker 8: Good afternoon, Mike. Good afternoon, Mike. good afternoon mike

Speaker 4: Hey. Good afternoon, Rob. Maybe we can just stick with loss trend. In the earnings release, the term persistent social inflation was used. I think some of the data points we've seen on an industry basis in terms of paid loss ratios and some executives, some of your peers, talking about a near-term lull in terms of maybe social inflation, but specifically claims frequencies. Curious if you're still experiencing a lull, and is there a COVID benefit that's been helping the underlying loss ratio or just the overall loss ratio? Hey. hey Good afternoon, Rob. good afternoon rob Maybe we can just stick with loss trend. maybe we can just stick with loss trend In the earnings release, the term persistent social inflation was used. in the earnings release the term persistent social inflation was used I think some of the data points we've seen on an industry basis in terms of paid loss ratios and some executives, some of your peers, talking about a near-term lull in terms of maybe social inflation, but specifically claims frequencies. i think some of the data points we've seen on an industry basis in terms of paid loss ratios and some executives some of your peers talking about a near-term lull in terms of maybe social inflation but specifically claims frequencies Curious if you're still experiencing a lull, and is there a COVID benefit that's been helping the underlying loss ratio or just the overall loss ratio? curious if you're still experiencing a lull and is there a covid benefit that's been helping the underlying loss ratio or just the overall loss ratio

Speaker 8: Look, I think clearly frequency has been impacted by COVID. I think as the economy is opening up more and more every day, that benefit is eroding quickly. I think also as you're going to see the legal system opening back up, specifically the court system opening back up, I think you're going to see that erode as well, which is one of the reasons why we have been reluctant to reach a conclusion as to what it's going to look like when the dust settles. That all being said, clearly there is a benefit as a result of COVID on frequency trend. Having said that, the big driver, if you will, of social inflation has been more severity, or what I would define as frequency of severity. Look, I think clearly frequency has been impacted by COVID. look i think clearly frequency has been impacted by covid I think as the economy is opening up more and more every day, that benefit is eroding quickly. i think as the economy is opening up more and more every day that benefit is eroding quickly I think also as you're going to see the legal system opening back up, specifically the court system opening back up, I think you're going to see that erode as well, which is one of the reasons why we have been reluctant to reach a conclusion as to what it's going to look like when the dust settles. i think also as you're going to see the legal system opening back up specifically the court system opening back up i think you're going to see that erode as well which is one of the reasons why we have been reluctant to reach a conclusion as to what it's going to look like when the dust settles That all being said, clearly there is a benefit as a result of COVID on frequency trend. that all being said clearly there is a benefit as a result of covid on frequency trend Having said that, the big driver, if you will, of social inflation has been more severity, or what I would define as frequency of severity. having said that the big driver if you will of social inflation has been more severity or what i would define as frequency of severity

Speaker 4: Okay. That's helpful. I guess shifting gears a little bit back to the expense ratio, which has been a great story for a while now. Given your remarks, which sounded like you guys feel good about growth continuing well in excess of expense inflation, should we be thinking about a newer, lower normal in the near term for the expense ratio? There's still, I think maybe correct me if I'm wrong, 30 is a level you guys are gravitating to as a target. Okay. okay That's helpful. that's helpful I guess shifting gears a little bit back to the expense ratio, which has been a great story for a while now. i guess shifting gears a little bit back to the expense ratio which has been a great story for a while now Given your remarks, which sounded like you guys feel good about growth continuing well in excess of expense inflation, should we be thinking about a newer, lower normal in the near term for the expense ratio? given your remarks which sounded like you guys feel good about growth continuing well in excess of expense inflation should we be thinking about a newer lower normal in the near term for the expense ratio There's still, I think maybe correct me if I'm wrong, 30 is a level you guys are gravitating to as a target. there's still i think maybe correct me if i'm wrong 30 is a level you guys are gravitating to as a target

Speaker 8: I'm not in a position to give you a specific number, Mike, but I can assure you that we as an organization, all of us as a team collectively, are focused on making sure that we have a competitive platform to be operating from, and it is our goal to push through the 30 number. I'm not in a position to give you a specific number, Mike, but I can assure you that we as an organization, all of us as a team collectively, are focused on making sure that we have a competitive platform to be operating from, and it is our goal to push through the 30 number. i'm not in a position to give you a specific number mike but i can assure you that we as an organization all of us as a team collectively are focused on making sure that we have a competitive platform to be operating from and it is our goal to push through the 30 number

Speaker 4: Okay. Maybe lastly, maybe I missed it in the prepared remarks. Can you talk about any specific COVID losses this quarter that were taken? Also, if you could update us on approximately what percentage of your COVID reserves are in the IBNR bucket. Thanks. Okay. okay Maybe lastly, maybe I missed it in the prepared remarks. maybe lastly maybe i missed it in the prepared remarks Can you talk about any specific COVID losses this quarter that were taken? can you talk about any specific covid losses this quarter that were taken Also, if you could update us on approximately what percentage of your COVID reserves are in the IBNR bucket. also if you could update us on approximately what percentage of your covid reserves are in the ibnr bucket Thanks. thanks

Speaker 8: Yeah. We'll have enough information in the Q to make you go blind on COVID. As I think we may have referenced in the release, in the current quarter, we had losses of approximately $15 million. Again, we'll have all kinds of additional information in the Q. COVID is a tricky one, particularly given a lot of our exposure is associated with event cancellation. A, trying to figure out when the world is going to open up, and B, trying to figure out what are the options in trying to triage a situation between a full cancellation versus just maybe a partial event. We continue to try and make sure that we are putting our best foot forward. At the same time, we're conscious of the fact that we have imperfect information. Yeah. yeah We'll have enough information in the Q to make you go blind on COVID. we'll have enough information in the q to make you go blind on covid As I think we may have referenced in the release, in the current quarter, we had losses of approximately $15 million. as i think we may have referenced in the release in the current quarter we had losses of approximately $15 million Again, we'll have all kinds of additional information in the Q. again we'll have all kinds of additional information in the q COVID is a tricky one, particularly given a lot of our exposure is associated with event cancellation. covid is a tricky one particularly given a lot of our exposure is associated with event cancellation A, trying to figure out when the world is going to open up, and B, trying to figure out what are the options in trying to triage a situation between a full cancellation versus just maybe a partial event. a trying to figure out when the world is going to open up and b trying to figure out what are the options in trying to triage a situation between a full cancellation versus just maybe a partial event We continue to try and make sure that we are putting our best foot forward. we continue to try and make sure that we are putting our best foot forward At the same time, we're conscious of the fact that we have imperfect information. at the same time we're conscious of the fact that we have imperfect information

Speaker 4: Okay. Thank you very much. Okay. okay Thank you very much. thank you very much

Speaker 8: Sure. Sure. sure

Speaker 5: Your next question comes from Yaron Kinar from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Yaron Kinar from Goldman Sachs. your next question comes from yaron kinar from goldman sachs Please go ahead. please go ahead

Speaker 10: Hi, good afternoon, everybody. Good evening. Hi, good afternoon, everybody. hi good afternoon everybody Good evening. good evening

Speaker 8: Good evening. Good evening. good evening

Speaker 10: My first question goes back to the rate commentary. I guess I'm just trying to understand the willingness to take maybe less rate increase in order to more aggressively go after business that you view as more adequately priced. Is that a Berkley-specific phenomenon, or is it something that you see for the industry as a whole? The reason I ask this is I think you mentioned that the retention rates remain pretty steady in the 80s. I would have thought that if it were a Berkley-specific phenomenon, maybe we would have seen some increase in the retention rate. My first question goes back to the rate commentary. my first question goes back to the rate commentary I guess I'm just trying to understand the willingness to take maybe less rate increase in order to more aggressively go after business that you view as more adequately priced. i guess i'm just trying to understand the willingness to take maybe less rate increase in order to more aggressively go after business that you view as more adequately priced Is that a Berkley-specific phenomenon, or is it something that you see for the industry as a whole? is that a berkley-specific phenomenon or is it something that you see for the industry as a whole The reason I ask this is I think you mentioned that the retention rates remain pretty steady in the 80s. the reason i ask this is i think you mentioned that the retention rates remain pretty steady in the 80s I would have thought that if it were a Berkley-specific phenomenon, maybe we would have seen some increase in the retention rate. i would have thought that if it were a berkley-specific phenomenon maybe we would have seen some increase in the retention rate

Speaker 8: Well, I can't speak to what others do or to that matter, how they're thinking about it. I can just tell you that we're pretty comfortable with a certain bottom line, what the available margin is, and we are starting to push on that. Do I think that it's going to materially flow through at this stage? No, I don't think so as far as the retention ratio. Do I think as you're going to see that become more and more the case with the portfolio? Yes, I think you'll probably see that a bit more. Well, I can't speak to what others do or to that matter, how they're thinking about it. well i can't speak to what others do or to that matter how they're thinking about it I can just tell you that we're pretty comfortable with a certain bottom line, what the available margin is, and we are starting to push on that. i can just tell you that we're pretty comfortable with a certain bottom line what the available margin is and we are starting to push on that Do I think that it's going to materially flow through at this stage? do i think that it's going to materially flow through at this stage No, I don't think so as far as the retention ratio. no i don't think so as far as the retention ratio Do I think as you're going to see that become more and more the case with the portfolio? do i think as you're going to see that become more and more the case with the portfolio Yes, I think you'll probably see that a bit more. yes i think you'll probably see that a bit more

Speaker 10: Okay. That's helpful. another question, just with regards to the reinsurance business I think in the past you've said that you saw more opportunities or better rate adequacy in insurance over reinsurance. if that is indeed the case, can you maybe talk about why the rate of growth in reinsurance is actually exceeding the rate of top-line growth in insurance? Okay. okay That's helpful. another question, just with regards to the reinsurance business I think in the past you've said that you saw more opportunities or better rate adequacy in insurance over reinsurance. if that is indeed the case, can you maybe talk about why the rate of growth in reinsurance is actually exceeding the rate of top-line growth in insurance? that's helpful another question just with regards to the reinsurance business i think in the past you've said that you saw more opportunities or better rate adequacy in insurance over reinsurance if that is indeed the case can you maybe talk about why the rate of growth in reinsurance is actually exceeding the rate of top-line growth in insurance

Speaker 8: Well, to the extent I made that comment, and I don't know if I did or didn't, but if I did, I assume it was some number of quarters ago, if not more. I would imagine that there was a moment in time when the insurance business was growing considerably quicker. Certainly, parts of it were growing considerably quicker than the reinsurance business. As a result of that's where it would've made sense for us to be deploying capital, and that's where my colleagues would've been looking to grow. Again, I don't have a recollection of the comment or the timing of the comment, but what I can assure you of is that we are focused on growing the business in areas at time that we think that the margin is there. Obviously, the reinsurance marketplace is going through a significant transition. Well, to the extent I made that comment, and I don't know if I did or didn't, but if I did, I assume it was some number of quarters ago, if not more. well to the extent i made that comment and i don't know if i did or didn't but if i did i assume it was some number of quarters ago if not more I would imagine that there was a moment in time when the insurance business was growing considerably quicker. i would imagine that there was a moment in time when the insurance business was growing considerably quicker Certainly, parts of it were growing considerably quicker than the reinsurance business. certainly parts of it were growing considerably quicker than the reinsurance business As a result of that's where it would've made sense for us to be deploying capital, and that's where my colleagues would've been looking to grow. as a result of that's where it would've made sense for us to be deploying capital and that's where my colleagues would've been looking to grow Again, I don't have a recollection of the comment or the timing of the comment, but what I can assure you of is that we are focused on growing the business in areas at time that we think that the margin is there. again i don't have a recollection of the comment or the timing of the comment but what i can assure you of is that we are focused on growing the business in areas at time that we think that the margin is there Obviously, the reinsurance marketplace is going through a significant transition. obviously the reinsurance marketplace is going through a significant transition our colleagues that have, through discipline, shrank the portfolio considerably are now finding it to be a marketplace that is much more attractive, hence the growth you are seeing. our colleagues that have, through discipline, shrank the portfolio considerably are now finding it to be a marketplace that is much more attractive, hence the growth you are seeing. our colleagues that have through discipline shrank the portfolio considerably are now finding it to be a marketplace that is much more attractive hence the growth you are seeing

Speaker 10: Okay. Thank you. Okay. okay Thank you. thank you

Speaker 8: Thank you. Thank you. thank you

Speaker 5: Your next question comes from Ryan Tunis from Autonomous Research. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Ryan Tunis from Autonomous Research. your next question comes from ryan tunis from autonomous research Please go ahead. please go ahead

Speaker 9: Hey. Thanks. Good evening. Good afternoon. I guess I wanted to drill a little bit more down in the loss ratio and just looking at the ex cat loss ratio in insurance. It's kind of been hovering in that, call it 59-59.5 range for the past several quarters. Obviously, I can't really think of a lot of seasonality will be weighing on that. It seems like the magnitude of earned rate versus trend, it should be widening. Maybe just a little bit of color on why we're not seeing more sequential improvement in the ex-cat loss ratio in insurance. Hey. hey Thanks. thanks Good evening. good evening Good afternoon. good afternoon I guess I wanted to drill a little bit more down in the loss ratio and just looking at the ex cat loss ratio in insurance. i guess i wanted to drill a little bit more down in the loss ratio and just looking at the ex cat loss ratio in insurance It's kind of been hovering in that, call it 59-59.5 range for the past several quarters. it's kind of been hovering in that call it 59-59.5 range for the past several quarters Obviously, I can't really think of a lot of seasonality will be weighing on that. obviously i can't really think of a lot of seasonality will be weighing on that It seems like the magnitude of earned rate versus trend, it should be widening. it seems like the magnitude of earned rate versus trend it should be widening Maybe just a little bit of color on why we're not seeing more sequential improvement in the ex-cat loss ratio in insurance. maybe just a little bit of color on why we're not seeing more sequential improvement in the ex-cat loss ratio in insurance

Speaker 8: Rich, do you have any thoughts on that? I have a comment or two, but did you have anything? Rich, do you have any thoughts on that? rich do you have any thoughts on that I have a comment or two, but did you have anything? i have a comment or two but did you have anything

Speaker 7: If I look for the insurance segment, year-over-year, certainly, we have improved by two points. For the reasons that we've been discussing, I think if you look for the full year of 2020, we were just over 60%. We did have some improvement coming through, and I think as you'll probably discuss, Rob, I think part of it has been our conservative nature with regards to the design ratios that we have as well in terms of making sure that we don't get too far ahead of ourselves with regards to how we're establishing our reserve position. I'll defer that to you in terms of that discussion. If I look for the insurance segment, year-over-year, certainly, we have improved by two points. if i look for the insurance segment year-over-year certainly we have improved by two points For the reasons that we've been discussing, I think if you look for the full year of 2020, we were just over 60%. for the reasons that we've been discussing i think if you look for the full year of 2020 we were just over 60% We did have some improvement coming through, and I think as you'll probably discuss, Rob, I think part of it has been our conservative nature with regards to the design ratios that we have as well in terms of making sure that we don't get too far ahead of ourselves with regards to how we're establishing our reserve position. we did have some improvement coming through and i think as you'll probably discuss rob i think part of it has been our conservative nature with regards to the design ratios that we have as well in terms of making sure that we don't get too far ahead of ourselves with regards to how we're establishing our reserve position I'll defer that to you in terms of that discussion. i'll defer that to you in terms of that discussion

Speaker 8: Yeah, no, I think that's correct, which I think is consistent with what we have suggested in the past that we're going to start out with a pretty measured pick, and then we will tighten it up over time. Workers' compensation being an example of what I think we referenced earlier on the call. Yeah, no, I think that's correct, which I think is consistent with what we have suggested in the past that we're going to start out with a pretty measured pick, and then we will tighten it up over time. yeah no i think that's correct which i think is consistent with what we have suggested in the past that we're going to start out with a pretty measured pick and then we will tighten it up over time Workers' compensation being an example of what I think we referenced earlier on the call. workers' compensation being an example of what i think we referenced earlier on the call

Speaker 9: Okay. I guess I'm just trying to square this with the rate commentary you're feeling. You clearly feel good that the book is more rate adequate. I guess the one observation I would make is if I go back into 2019, your ex-cat loss ratio's only two points lower than it was two years ago when we were kind of getting into the hard market. If these loss picks don't turn out to just be conservative and actually turn out to be prudent and correct, then I guess the question is, why are you happy? Why are you satisfied with just two points of loss ratio improvement, at a point when you're willing to start to give up a little on the rate front? Okay. okay I guess I'm just trying to square this with the rate commentary you're feeling. i guess i'm just trying to square this with the rate commentary you're feeling You clearly feel good that the book is more rate adequate. you clearly feel good that the book is more rate adequate I guess the one observation I would make is if I go back into 2019, your ex-cat loss ratio's only two points lower than it was two years ago when we were kind of getting into the hard market. i guess the one observation i would make is if i go back into 2019 your ex-cat loss ratio's only two points lower than it was two years ago when we were kind of getting into the hard market If these loss picks don't turn out to just be conservative and actually turn out to be prudent and correct, then I guess the question is, why are you happy? if these loss picks don't turn out to just be conservative and actually turn out to be prudent and correct then i guess the question is why are you happy Why are you satisfied with just two points of loss ratio improvement, at a point when you're willing to start to give up a little on the rate front? why are you satisfied with just two points of loss ratio improvement at a point when you're willing to start to give up a little on the rate front

Speaker 8: Well, I think that ultimately, Ryan, you got to remember that we have a bit of a bouquet here. while we do look at the portfolio and we do speak to you and others at a macro level, what we were trying to do is give you a little bit of insight that there are 53 different operating units, many of them with various product lines within each one of the operating units. there are components of that where we think that we are getting to a point that the rates are so attractive that we're prepared to maybe not push as hard on the rate front. There are many components of it, as you can see, given the rate that we continue to achieve, where we think there is opportunity, and quite frankly, need to be getting more rate. Well, I think that ultimately, Ryan, you got to remember that we have a bit of a bouquet here. while we do look at the portfolio and we do speak to you and others at a macro level, what we were trying to do is give you a little bit of insight that there are 53 different operating units, many of them with various product lines within each one of the operating units. there are components of that where we think that we are getting to a point that the rates are so attractive that we're prepared to maybe not push as hard on the rate front. well i think that ultimately ryan you got to remember that we have a bit of a bouquet here while we do look at the portfolio and we do speak to you and others at a macro level what we were trying to do is give you a little bit of insight that there are 53 different operating units many of them with various product lines within each one of the operating units there are components of that where we think that we are getting to a point that the rates are so attractive that we're prepared to maybe not push as hard on the rate front There are many components of it, as you can see, given the rate that we continue to achieve, where we think there is opportunity, and quite frankly, need to be getting more rate. there are many components of it as you can see given the rate that we continue to achieve where we think there is opportunity and quite frankly need to be getting more rate What we were trying to do is give you a sense and help you sort of think about the rate adequacy and how you compare what we got in the quarter with what we got in prior quarters. Again, at this stage, I think that it's very clear, at least in our opinion, that we continue to get something measured in the hundreds of basis points in excess of loss cost. We are doing that in most cases for a second time, and the stage is being set for us to do that for a third time. What we were trying to do is give you a sense and help you sort of think about the rate adequacy and how you compare what we got in the quarter with what we got in prior quarters. what we were trying to do is give you a sense and help you sort of think about the rate adequacy and how you compare what we got in the quarter with what we got in prior quarters Again, at this stage, I think that it's very clear, at least in our opinion, that we continue to get something measured in the hundreds of basis points in excess of loss cost. again at this stage i think that it's very clear at least in our opinion that we continue to get something measured in the hundreds of basis points in excess of loss cost We are doing that in most cases for a second time, and the stage is being set for us to do that for a third time. we are doing that in most cases for a second time and the stage is being set for us to do that for a third time

Speaker 9: Thank you. Thank you. thank you

Speaker 5: Your next question comes from Meyer Shields from KBW. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Meyer Shields from KBW. your next question comes from meyer shields from kbw Please go ahead. please go ahead

Speaker 3: Thanks, Kyle. Rob, you talked about workers' compensation severity getting worse. Is that something you're seeing? Is that something you expect? Is that tied to an economic recovery? Thanks, Kyle. thanks kyle Rob, you talked about workers' compensation severity getting worse. rob you talked about workers' compensation severity getting worse Is that something you're seeing? is that something you're seeing Is that something you expect? is that something you expect Is that tied to an economic recovery? is that tied to an economic recovery

Speaker 8: Yeah. It's something that we have been observing in the data for some period of time, and it's like many things, you see a couple of isolated data points, and then you start to pay more attention, and you start to find more and more of them. I don't think that we could give you a precise answer, but directionally, that's what we're seeing happening. Yeah. yeah It's something that we have been observing in the data for some period of time, and it's like many things, you see a couple of isolated data points, and then you start to pay more attention, and you start to find more and more of them. it's something that we have been observing in the data for some period of time and it's like many things you see a couple of isolated data points and then you start to pay more attention and you start to find more and more of them I don't think that we could give you a precise answer, but directionally, that's what we're seeing happening. i don't think that we could give you a precise answer but directionally that's what we're seeing happening

Speaker 3: Okay. Is it fair to separate that from the decline in frequency? I know they're not comparable, but personal auto frequency fell off a cliff and severity skyrocketed. I'm wondering whether that's the same phenomenon we're just getting. Okay. okay Is it fair to separate that from the decline in frequency? is it fair to separate that from the decline in frequency I know they're not comparable, but personal auto frequency fell off a cliff and severity skyrocketed. i know they're not comparable but personal auto frequency fell off a cliff and severity skyrocketed I'm wondering whether that's the same phenomenon we're just getting. i'm wondering whether that's the same phenomenon we're just getting

Speaker 8: Clearly during COVID, there were a lot of people sheltering in place. There were a lot of factories that were closed. There were a lot of people not going into offices. There were a lot of people sitting at their kitchen table. As a result of that, you saw less frequency. Having said that, again, we have noticed that severity seems to becoming more and more of an issue. Clearly during COVID, there were a lot of people sheltering in place. clearly during covid there were a lot of people sheltering in place There were a lot of factories that were closed. there were a lot of factories that were closed There were a lot of people not going into offices. there were a lot of people not going into offices There were a lot of people sitting at their kitchen table. there were a lot of people sitting at their kitchen table As a result of that, you saw less frequency. as a result of that you saw less frequency Having said that, again, we have noticed that severity seems to becoming more and more of an issue. having said that again we have noticed that severity seems to becoming more and more of an issue

Speaker 3: Okay. No, that's helpful. If I can shift gears briefly, talk a little bit about the technological investment. Does that have any implications for the, how do I put it, strategic decentralization of underwriting? Okay. okay No, that's helpful. no that's helpful If I can shift gears briefly, talk a little bit about the technological investment. if i can shift gears briefly talk a little bit about the technological investment Does that have any implications for the, how do I put it, strategic decentralization of underwriting? does that have any implications for the how do i put it strategic decentralization of underwriting

Speaker 8: No. We view what we are doing on that front, which will perhaps bring some efficiency, but more often than just efficiency, it's also going to be empowering people with better tools and better information so they can make better choices. Certainly there's an efficiency component as well. No. no We view what we are doing on that front, which will perhaps bring some efficiency, but more often than just efficiency, it's also going to be empowering people with better tools and better information so they can make better choices. we view what we are doing on that front which will perhaps bring some efficiency but more often than just efficiency it's also going to be empowering people with better tools and better information so they can make better choices Certainly there's an efficiency component as well. certainly there's an efficiency component as well

Speaker 3: Okay, perfect. Thank you. Okay, perfect. okay perfect Thank you. thank you

Speaker 5: Your next question comes from Brian Meredith from UBS. Please go ahead. Your next question comes from Brian Meredith from UBS. your next question comes from brian meredith from ubs Please go ahead. please go ahead

Speaker 1: Hey, thanks. Evening. A couple quick questions. The first one, this is just a numbers question. The COVID losses, is that booked in your cat loss like you've typically done? Hey, thanks. hey thanks Evening. evening A couple quick questions. a couple quick questions The first one, this is just a numbers question. the first one this is just a numbers question The COVID losses, is that booked in your cat loss like you've typically done? the covid losses is that booked in your cat loss like you've typically done

Speaker 8: Yes. The $15 million that Rich referred to from the current quarter is in that. The actual, if you will, traditional cat number, I think, Rich, was about $21 million. Yes. yes The $15 million that Rich referred to from the current quarter is in that. the $15 million that rich referred to from the current quarter is in that The actual, if you will, traditional cat number, I think, Rich, was about $21 million. the actual if you will traditional cat number i think rich was about $21 million

Speaker 1: That's concrete. That's concrete. that's concrete

Speaker 8: With the balance- With the balance- with the balance-

Speaker 1: Good Good good

Speaker 8: in the quarter. in the quarter. in the quarter

Speaker 1: Good. Helpful. Thank you. Second question, Rob, I'm curious, are you seeing at all any appetite now by the standard market to reach up into the E&S market, we'll call it, to maybe take some business given where rate and stuff is going? Are we seeing any indication of that yet? Good. good Helpful. helpful Thank you. thank you Second question, Rob, I'm curious, are you seeing at all any appetite now by the standard market to reach up into the E&S market, we'll call it, to maybe take some business given where rate and stuff is going? second question rob i'm curious are you seeing at all any appetite now by the standard market to reach up into the e&s market we'll call it to maybe take some business given where rate and stuff is going Are we seeing any indication of that yet? are we seeing any indication of that yet

Speaker 8: None whatsoever that we are seeing. If anything, it continues to go in the other direction, Brian. Our submission flow is gaining momentum, partly because the economy, but partly because I think the standard market continues to revisit their appetite. I think you can see that in part how they're pushing more for rate, but simultaneously they're weeding out their portfolio where I think they're revisiting what that appetite should be. That is creating opportunity for the specialty market, in particular the E&S carriers. We're certainly in the middle of that. None whatsoever that we are seeing. none whatsoever that we are seeing If anything, it continues to go in the other direction, Brian. if anything it continues to go in the other direction brian Our submission flow is gaining momentum, partly because the economy, but partly because I think the standard market continues to revisit their appetite. our submission flow is gaining momentum partly because the economy but partly because i think the standard market continues to revisit their appetite I think you can see that in part how they're pushing more for rate, but simultaneously they're weeding out their portfolio where I think they're revisiting what that appetite should be. i think you can see that in part how they're pushing more for rate but simultaneously they're weeding out their portfolio where i think they're revisiting what that appetite should be That is creating opportunity for the specialty market, in particular the E&S carriers. that is creating opportunity for the specialty market in particular the e&s carriers We're certainly in the middle of that. we're certainly in the middle of that

Speaker 1: Got you. My last question, I'm just curious, Rob. Given all of the uncertainty with respect to what loss trend's going to be looking like here going forward, you pointed out yourself, is the return on capital that you're looking at on business higher today than it would've been a couple of years ago? Do you have to factor that into when you're thinking your pricing decisions, that uncertainty? I think back at prior cycle turns where you didn't know what loss trend really was running at. It was so high, and there were massive price increases, ended up resulting in some massive reserve releases going forward. How do you think about that? Got you. got you My last question, I'm just curious, Rob. my last question i'm just curious rob Given all of the uncertainty with respect to what loss trend's going to be looking like here going forward, you pointed out yourself, is the return on capital that you're looking at on business higher today than it would've been a couple of years ago? given all of the uncertainty with respect to what loss trend's going to be looking like here going forward you pointed out yourself is the return on capital that you're looking at on business higher today than it would've been a couple of years ago Do you have to factor that into when you're thinking your pricing decisions, that uncertainty? do you have to factor that into when you're thinking your pricing decisions that uncertainty I think back at prior cycle turns where you didn't know what loss trend really was running at. i think back at prior cycle turns where you didn't know what loss trend really was running at It was so high, and there were massive price increases, ended up resulting in some massive reserve releases going forward. it was so high and there were massive price increases ended up resulting in some massive reserve releases going forward How do you think about that? how do you think about that

Speaker 8: We have a view as to what trend is. We think that it's based on reasonable fact that is available and analysis, and quite frankly, I would expect that we will be, over time, reaping the benefits from certainly the rate that we are getting in excess of that. Do I think that we are being overly conservative or overly optimistic with our pick on trend? No. Do I think we are being thoughtful and measured? Yes. Having said that, as suggested earlier, Brian, I think regardless of the trend number that you realistically want to use, we are getting rate that is several hundred basis points in excess of any trend number I've heard people using. We have a view as to what trend is. we have a view as to what trend is We think that it's based on reasonable fact that is available and analysis, and quite frankly, I would expect that we will be, over time, reaping the benefits from certainly the rate that we are getting in excess of that. we think that it's based on reasonable fact that is available and analysis and quite frankly i would expect that we will be over time reaping the benefits from certainly the rate that we are getting in excess of that Do I think that we are being overly conservative or overly optimistic with our pick on trend? do i think that we are being overly conservative or overly optimistic with our pick on trend No. no Do I think we are being thoughtful and measured? do i think we are being thoughtful and measured Yes. yes Having said that, as suggested earlier, Brian, I think regardless of the trend number that you realistically want to use, we are getting rate that is several hundred basis points in excess of any trend number I've heard people using. having said that as suggested earlier brian i think regardless of the trend number that you realistically want to use we are getting rate that is several hundred basis points in excess of any trend number i've heard people using

Speaker 1: Great. Thank you. Great. great Thank you. thank you

Speaker 8: Thank you. Thank you. thank you

Speaker 5: As a reminder, to ask a question, press star one on your telephone. Your next question comes from Phil Stefano from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. As a reminder, to ask a question, press star one on your telephone. as a reminder to ask a question press star one on your telephone Your next question comes from Phil Stefano from Deutsche Bank. your next question comes from phil stefano from deutsche bank Please go ahead. please go ahead

Speaker 6: Yeah. Thanks. Good afternoon. Yeah. yeah Thanks. thanks Good afternoon. good afternoon

Speaker 8: Good afternoon. Good afternoon. good afternoon

Speaker 6: Rob, in your opening remarks, you had talked about there being a runway for growth and having a good bit of confidence in that. I would assume that when you talk about that, it's a product of both rate and exposure, and it feels like we're focusing quite a bit on the rate side so far. I guess the first question, is my interpretation right? Maybe you could talk to us about exposure and the extent to which that might be driving top-line growth as we see a potential slowdown in the rate that everyone has mentioned so far. Rob, in your opening remarks, you had talked about there being a runway for growth and having a good bit of confidence in that. rob in your opening remarks you had talked about there being a runway for growth and having a good bit of confidence in that I would assume that when you talk about that, it's a product of both rate and exposure, and it feels like we're focusing quite a bit on the rate side so far. i would assume that when you talk about that it's a product of both rate and exposure and it feels like we're focusing quite a bit on the rate side so far I guess the first question, is my interpretation right? i guess the first question is my interpretation right Maybe you could talk to us about exposure and the extent to which that might be driving top-line growth as we see a potential slowdown in the rate that everyone has mentioned so far. maybe you could talk to us about exposure and the extent to which that might be driving top-line growth as we see a potential slowdown in the rate that everyone has mentioned so far

Speaker 8: Okay. Well, maybe a couple of things. First off, I would encourage people not to get overly consumed on the fact that our rate increase was only 13%, which I think by most measures is reasonably robust. Maybe that view is not shared by all. That having been said, I also think that it's generally understood at this stage, and hopefully it continues, that we have an economy that is getting back on its feet and building momentum. As a result of that, we think that you're going to see payrolls going up. We think that you're going to see just the amount of commerce, you're going to see receipts going up. You're going to see more economic activity. Much of what we do is priced off of payrolls, receipts, or economic activity, and I think that that bodes well for the growth. Okay. okay Well, maybe a couple of things. well maybe a couple of things First off, I would encourage people not to get overly consumed on the fact that our rate increase was only 13%, which I think by most measures is reasonably robust. first off i would encourage people not to get overly consumed on the fact that our rate increase was only 13% which i think by most measures is reasonably robust Maybe that view is not shared by all. That having been said, I also think that it's generally understood at this stage, and hopefully it continues, that we have an economy that is getting back on its feet and building momentum. maybe that view is not shared by all. that having been said i also think that it's generally understood at this stage and hopefully it continues that we have an economy that is getting back on its feet and building momentum As a result of that, we think that you're going to see payrolls going up. as a result of that we think that you're going to see payrolls going up We think that you're going to see just the amount of commerce, you're going to see receipts going up. we think that you're going to see just the amount of commerce you're going to see receipts going up You're going to see more economic activity. you're going to see more economic activity Much of what we do is priced off of payrolls, receipts, or economic activity, and I think that that bodes well for the growth. much of what we do is priced off of payrolls receipts or economic activity and i think that that bodes well for the growth In addition to that, you continue to see, as I referenced a moment ago, a standard market revisiting its appetite and pushing business into specialty, in particular the E&S market, which is very much our strike zone, which is why historically we have done particularly well in these type of market conditions, and we think there's early evidence to support that that will continue to be the case, and we have no reason to believe that it won't. I guess lastly, I should add that on the topic of specialty and E&S, there are a lot of small businesses that went out of business. You're going to see them getting back on their feet, whether they're starting up again or starting something new. And new businesses tend to find their insurance coverage in the specialty, in particular the E&S market. In addition to that, you continue to see, as I referenced a moment ago, a standard market revisiting its appetite and pushing business into specialty, in particular the E&S market, which is very much our strike zone, which is why historically we have done particularly well in these type of market conditions, and we think there's early evidence to support that that will continue to be the case, and we have no reason to believe that it won't. in addition to that you continue to see as i referenced a moment ago a standard market revisiting its appetite and pushing business into specialty in particular the e&s market which is very much our strike zone which is why historically we have done particularly well in these type of market conditions and we think there's early evidence to support that that will continue to be the case and we have no reason to believe that it won't I guess lastly, I should add that on the topic of specialty and E&S, there are a lot of small businesses that went out of business. i guess lastly i should add that on the topic of specialty and e&s there are a lot of small businesses that went out of business You're going to see them getting back on their feet, whether they're starting up again or starting something new. you're going to see them getting back on their feet whether they're starting up again or starting something new And new businesses tend to find their insurance coverage in the specialty, in particular the E&S market. and new businesses tend to find their insurance coverage in the specialty in particular the e&s market Lastly, I think I should add that I think there's a reasonable chance that there is going to be, later this year and next year, a meaningful catch-up on the audit premium front. When you put all of those pieces together, in my opinion, while rate is and continues to be an important part of the story, and certainly for the past many quarters, it has been a rate-centric discussion because of the need that the industry had for rate. At this stage with an economy that is opening back up and cooperating, I think that you're going to see great opportunity in the top line. Lastly, I think I should add that I think there's a reasonable chance that there is going to be, later this year and next year, a meaningful catch-up on the audit premium front. lastly i think i should add that i think there's a reasonable chance that there is going to be later this year and next year a meaningful catch-up on the audit premium front When you put all of those pieces together, in my opinion, while rate is and continues to be an important part of the story, and certainly for the past many quarters, it has been a rate-centric discussion because of the need that the industry had for rate. when you put all of those pieces together in my opinion while rate is and continues to be an important part of the story and certainly for the past many quarters it has been a rate-centric discussion because of the need that the industry had for rate At this stage with an economy that is opening back up and cooperating, I think that you're going to see great opportunity in the top line. at this stage with an economy that is opening back up and cooperating i think that you're going to see great opportunity in the top line

Speaker 6: Okay. No, I think that makes sense. Focusing back on the investments in technology that you had talked about, I was hoping you can give a little more color there. Is this something that COVID triggered? Was it happening in the background and we just weren't talking about it? If you want to give us a flavor for any, is there expense pressures now from the build-out that might abate in the near future? How we should be thinking about that? Okay. okay No, I think that makes sense. no i think that makes sense Focusing back on the investments in technology that you had talked about, I was hoping you can give a little more color there. focusing back on the investments in technology that you had talked about i was hoping you can give a little more color there Is this something that COVID triggered? is this something that covid triggered Was it happening in the background and we just weren't talking about it? was it happening in the background and we just weren't talking about it If you want to give us a flavor for any, is there expense pressures now from the build-out that might abate in the near future? if you want to give us a flavor for any is there expense pressures now from the build-out that might abate in the near future How we should be thinking about that? how we should be thinking about that

Speaker 8: No, this is not something that was triggered in any way, shape, or form by COVID. It's rather just a focus on how we continue to move the business forward, and how we use technology to make the business better, how we're able to use data and analytics to empower people to make more informed decisions. As far as what does that mean specifically for the expense ratio, I don't think it's particularly earth-shattering, but it's certainly something to keep in mind, certainly something that Rich and I pay attention to. While it's not in the expense ratio per se, but as it relates to expenses, one thing that I didn't mention, and I don't believe Rich mentioned, we have done a fair amount of work on our balance sheet in this low interest rate environment. No, this is not something that was triggered in any way, shape, or form by COVID. no this is not something that was triggered in any way shape or form by covid It's rather just a focus on how we continue to move the business forward, and how we use technology to make the business better, how we're able to use data and analytics to empower people to make more informed decisions. it's rather just a focus on how we continue to move the business forward and how we use technology to make the business better how we're able to use data and analytics to empower people to make more informed decisions As far as what does that mean specifically for the expense ratio, I don't think it's particularly earth-shattering, but it's certainly something to keep in mind, certainly something that Rich and I pay attention to. as far as what does that mean specifically for the expense ratio i don't think it's particularly earth-shattering but it's certainly something to keep in mind certainly something that rich and i pay attention to While it's not in the expense ratio per se, but as it relates to expenses, one thing that I didn't mention, and I don't believe Rich mentioned, we have done a fair amount of work on our balance sheet in this low interest rate environment. while it's not in the expense ratio per se but as it relates to expenses one thing that i didn't mention and i don't believe rich mentioned we have done a fair amount of work on our balance sheet in this low interest rate environment Rich, again, I think we both skipped over this, but you want to just give 30 seconds on what we've done on the capital front, please? Rich, again, I think we both skipped over this, but you want to just give 30 seconds on what we've done on the capital front, please? rich again i think we both skipped over this but you want to just give 30 seconds on what we've done on the capital front please

Speaker 7: Sure, Rob. I guess over the last 18 months, we've done a number of refinancings and capital transactions. We've raised about $1.75 billion of senior debt and hybrid capital with the intended use of proceeds to basically take out certain hybrid securities that were at higher costs and fund maturities that we had up through March of 2022. With that, we would anticipate that some of the results coming out of that would be an extended average maturity of about 10 years, that we would be reducing our cost of capital by nearly 100 basis points. If you were to look at the interest expense, probably in 2021, we'd see a reduction of a few million dollars in interest expense, and then going into 2022, we'd see an additional 20+ million dollars of interest expense reduction building off of the 2021 number. Sure, Rob. sure rob I guess over the last 18 months, we've done a number of refinancings and capital transactions. i guess over the last 18 months we've done a number of refinancings and capital transactions We've raised about $1.75 billion of senior debt and hybrid capital with the intended use of proceeds to basically take out certain hybrid securities that were at higher costs and fund maturities that we had up through March of 2022. we've raised about $1.75 billion of senior debt and hybrid capital with the intended use of proceeds to basically take out certain hybrid securities that were at higher costs and fund maturities that we had up through march of 2022 With that, we would anticipate that some of the results coming out of that would be an extended average maturity of about 10 years, that we would be reducing our cost of capital by nearly 100 basis points. with that we would anticipate that some of the results coming out of that would be an extended average maturity of about 10 years that we would be reducing our cost of capital by nearly 100 basis points If you were to look at the interest expense, probably in 2021, we'd see a reduction of a few million dollars in interest expense, and then going into 2022, we'd see an additional 20+ million dollars of interest expense reduction building off of the 2021 number. if you were to look at the interest expense probably in 2021 we'd see a reduction of a few million dollars in interest expense and then going into 2022 we'd see an additional 20+ million dollars of interest expense reduction building off of the 2021 number Definitely some good opportunity to take advantage of the low interest rate environment that we're seeing. Definitely some good opportunity to take advantage of the low interest rate environment that we're seeing. definitely some good opportunity to take advantage of the low interest rate environment that we're seeing

Speaker 8: Thanks, Rich. Phil, I know that doesn't get right at your expense ratio question, but obviously it's a meaningful impact on our economic model. just dawned on me, we should have flagged that with everybody. Thanks, Rich. thanks rich Phil, I know that doesn't get right at your expense ratio question, but obviously it's a meaningful impact on our economic model. just dawned on me, we should have flagged that with everybody. phil i know that doesn't get right at your expense ratio question but obviously it's a meaningful impact on our economic model just dawned on me we should have flagged that with everybody

Speaker 6: No, that's great. Thank you. Appreciate the color. No, that's great. no that's great Thank you. thank you Appreciate the color. appreciate the color

Speaker 5: That was our last question. At this time, I will turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley for closing comments. That was our last question. that was our last question At this time, I will turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley for closing comments. at this time i will turn the call over to mr rob berkley for closing comments

Speaker 8: Okay. Mike, thank you very much, and thank you all for dialing in. We appreciate your questions and engagement. I think by virtually any measure, it was a very good quarter, and we remain quite convinced that there are more good quarters to come. Talk to you in 90 days. Thank you. Okay. okay Mike, thank you very much, and thank you all for dialing in. mike thank you very much and thank you all for dialing in We appreciate your questions and engagement. we appreciate your questions and engagement I think by virtually any measure, it was a very good quarter, and we remain quite convinced that there are more good quarters to come. i think by virtually any measure it was a very good quarter and we remain quite convinced that there are more good quarters to come Talk to you in 90 days. talk to you in 90 days Thank you. thank you

Speaker 5: This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. This concludes today's conference call. this concludes today's conference call Thank you for participating. thank you for participating You may now disconnect. you may now disconnect